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Post by kaipono on Nov 14, 2023 5:43:48 GMT -5
Tali Hakas, freshman of the week, no way. It should've been Aubrey Beaver of CSUF. A comparison: Attempts Tali Hakas 37, Aubrey Beaver 37, same opportunities. Now Aubrey is hitting against Hawaii and Tali is hitting against Fullerton. So I assume we can agree that Tali has an easier path to run up the kill numbers. However Tali had 11 kills hitting .216 earning 13.5 points ,while Aubrey had 15 kills hitting .270 and earning 17.0 points. What do you think? Does the freshman have to be on a winning team? It is a weekly award, and the stats you provided were only from the UH vs. CSUF match. In Hawaii’s sweep of UCI, Hakas had 11 kills with 3 errors for a 0.348 hitting percentage. Against UCI, Beaver had 5 kills with 3 errors for a 0.143 hitting percentage. |
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Post by dd2000 on Nov 14, 2023 6:08:43 GMT -5
Tali Hakas, freshman of the week, no way. It should've been Aubrey Beaver of CSUF. A comparison: Attempts Tali Hakas 37, Aubrey Beaver 37, same opportunities. Now Aubrey is hitting against Hawaii and Tali is hitting against Fullerton. So I assume we can agree that Tali has an easier path to run up the kill numbers. However Tali had 11 kills hitting .216 earning 13.5 points ,while Aubrey had 15 kills hitting .270 and earning 17.0 points. What do you think? Does the freshman have to be on a winning team? I thought two matches were played by both teams for the week, not just one match? And digs, blocks, and service aces don't count? |
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Nov 17, 2023 12:58:33 GMT -5
the big match tonite.
Hawaii & San Diego
San Diego played a number of seniors on senior night vs. Beach.
San Diego has been 9-1 vs. the rest of the Big West, and 0-7 vs. the top four, with their 'bookend' schedule to start and finish the season against those top teams.
for Davis-IRvine, not sure it matters much whether they end 5th or 6th at this point, so playing for the most part to get ready for the BWCT. Davis though by winning a match (or two) this week, would raise some eyebrows for that quarterfinal game.
Beach & Hawaii are in must win for some fairly remote shot as an at-large, pretty much win the BWCT or else anyway. Not even that sure there's much a difference between a 2,3,4 seed at this point, although the 2 seed avoids the extra match. Whether a team faces SB in the semis or finals is a bit irrelevant.
Poly is most likely 3 seed no matter what, and would not surprise if they have two or three straight 5 setters in the BWCT, the way they yo-yo in matches from putrid to perfect play.
in a way the biggest pressure this week is really on UCSB to finish the job. they have an at-large locked, barring two upsets. they literally can secure a berth by winning the two matches this week, and remove any possible doubt. An RPI and KPI of 30 or so will take some hit with Riverside, but the raw RPI won't be a big deal at this point.
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Nov 17, 2023 13:32:08 GMT -5
Here's some interesting data. As well as SB has played, they really won't be a prohibitive favorite to win the BWCT.
Per Massey. (and the first four odds are assuming the BWCT is Beach vs. SB & Poly vs. Hawaii, meaning it is skewed to Hawaii being the #2 seed). based on all season, not just Big West regular season.
this is simplistic, not trying to be precise with all the permutations of calculations, and not trying to get into an overly detailed math/state exercise here:
Odds of SB winning. 59% vs. Beach & 50% vs. Hawaii: 30%
Odds of Beach wining. 41% vs. SB & 41% vs. Hawaii: 17% (ok, make it 20%)
Odds of Hawaii winning. 72% vs. Poly & 50% vs. SB: 36%
Odds of Poly winning. 28% vs. Hawaii & 28% vs. SB: 8% (ok, make it 10%)
the odds are actually higher due to QF or SF upsets.
so the other 9%?
well here's IRvine:
odds of Irvine: 1% (ok, let's make it 2%)
36% vs. Poly
17% vs. Haw
17% vs. SB
odds of Davis: 1% (ok, let's make it 2%)
24% vs. Beach
18% vs. UCSB
18% vs. Haw
so in conclusion. we have no idea who will win the BWCT an AQ!
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Post by beachgrad on Nov 17, 2023 18:00:56 GMT -5
This is simple, LBSU is at home so they will win the tournament.... okay, might not be that simple  . I think the most consistent team wins this tournament and that gives the edge to UCSB. However, the top four teams are so close in ability that the home court advantage may actually sway the title to my beloved 49ers. Go BEACH! |
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vballfreak808
Hawaiian Ohana 
2020 All-VolleyTalk 1st Team, All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2023, 2022, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk HM (2021, 2019, 2018), 2017 Fantasy League 1st Runner-up, 2016 Fantasy League Champion
#GoBows
Posts: 13,740
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Post by vballfreak808 on Nov 18, 2023 19:35:59 GMT -5
UC Irvine def. Cal State Bakersfield 3-1 (18-25, 25-22, 27-25, 25-19)
Irvine gets the 5th seed in the tournament. They finish the regular season tied for 5th with UC San Diego (could also be tied with UC Davis if they beat Cal Poly)
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vballfreak808
Hawaiian Ohana
2020 All-VolleyTalk 1st Team, All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2023, 2022, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk HM (2021, 2019, 2018), 2017 Fantasy League 1st Runner-up, 2016 Fantasy League Champion
#GoBows
Posts: 13,740
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Post by vballfreak808 on Nov 18, 2023 22:05:51 GMT -5
Cal State Fullerton ends their season with their first conference win!
CSUF def. CSUN 3-1 (17-25, 25-21, 25-22, 26-24)
Glad they ended on a high note, this team has no seniors so hopefully they stay healthy in the offseason continue to improve!
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Nov 18, 2023 23:40:52 GMT -5
Cal State Fullerton ends their season with their first conference win! CSUF def. CSUN 3-1 (17-25, 25-21, 25-22, 26-24) Glad they ended on a high note, this team has no seniors so hopefully they stay healthy in the offseason continue to improve! Irvine beats Bake, so Irvine will be the #5 seed, having the win over SB as the tie-break Davis is the #6 seed SB sweeps Riverside, so SB is in the NCAA tourney, at least as an at-large. A loss in the BWCT won't matter, the Nachos are in. |
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Post by gouci on Nov 19, 2023 0:55:14 GMT -5
Who owns the tie-breaker between Long Beach St. and Cal Poly if they both lose and finish 13-5?
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vballfreak808
Hawaiian Ohana
2020 All-VolleyTalk 1st Team, All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2023, 2022, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk HM (2021, 2019, 2018), 2017 Fantasy League 1st Runner-up, 2016 Fantasy League Champion
#GoBows
Posts: 13,740
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Post by vballfreak808 on Nov 19, 2023 1:02:45 GMT -5
Who owns the tie-breaker between Long Beach St. and Cal Poly if they both lose and finish 13-5? Long Beach. They spit the series, but a loss to Davis by Cal Poly would give Long Beach the edge |
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Nov 19, 2023 1:13:07 GMT -5
Who owns the tie-breaker between Long Beach St. and Cal Poly if they both lose and finish 13-5? Long Beach. They spit the series, but a loss to Davis by Cal Poly would give Long Beach the edge I'm not sure actually, but believe so Davis and IRvine would be tied. IRvine is #5, because they beat SB, and split with Davis. Davis is #6 seed LB is 1-0 and Poly is 2-0 vs. IRvine, due to the unbalanced schdule LB would be 2-0 vs. Davis, and Poly 1-1 so I think maybe Beach, who is 3-0 vs. Davis/IRvine, and Poly would be 3-1. |
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vballfreak808
Hawaiian Ohana
2020 All-VolleyTalk 1st Team, All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2023, 2022, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk HM (2021, 2019, 2018), 2017 Fantasy League 1st Runner-up, 2016 Fantasy League Champion
#GoBows
Posts: 13,740
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Post by vballfreak808 on Nov 19, 2023 1:16:50 GMT -5
Long Beach. They spit the series, but a loss to Davis by Cal Poly would give Long Beach the edge I'm not sure actually, but believe so Davis and IRvine would be tied. IRvine is #5, because they beat SB, and split with Davis. Davis is #6 seed LB is 1-0 and Poly is 2-0 vs. IRvine, due to the unbalanced schdule LB would be 2-0 vs. Davis, and Poly 1-1 so I think maybe Beach, who is 3-0 vs. Davis/IRvine, and Poly would be 3-1. That is right, thanks. I keep forgetting UCI is above Davis now. |
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Post by gouci on Nov 19, 2023 1:22:17 GMT -5
Who owns the tie-breaker between Long Beach St. and Cal Poly if they both lose and finish 13-5? Long Beach. They spit the series, but a loss to Davis by Cal Poly would give Long Beach the edge
If both Long Beach St. and Cal Poly lose tonight, the Big West Tournament semi-finals that I would like to see is #3 LB St. vs #2 Hawaii. They split the season 1-1. Then in the other semis #1 UCSB vs #5 UCI which also split the season 1-1 LOL.
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Nov 19, 2023 1:22:20 GMT -5
I'm not sure actually, but believe so Davis and IRvine would be tied. IRvine is #5, because they beat SB, and split with Davis. Davis is #6 seed LB is 1-0 and Poly is 2-0 vs. IRvine, due to the unbalanced schdule LB would be 2-0 vs. Davis, and Poly 1-1 so I think maybe Beach, who is 3-0 vs. Davis/IRvine, and Poly would be 3-1. That is right, thanks. I keep forgetting UCI is above Davis now. actually I left out UCSD, also 9-9, Both Poly & Beach are 2-0 vs. UCSD and nnow Davis is pushing Poly to 5 sets |
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vballfreak808
Hawaiian Ohana
2020 All-VolleyTalk 1st Team, All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2023, 2022, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk HM (2021, 2019, 2018), 2017 Fantasy League 1st Runner-up, 2016 Fantasy League Champion
#GoBows
Posts: 13,740
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Post by vballfreak808 on Nov 19, 2023 1:27:14 GMT -5
That is right, thanks. I keep forgetting UCI is above Davis now. actually I left out UCSD, also 9-9, Both Poly & Beach are 2-0 vs. UCSD and nnow Davis is pushing Poly to 5 sets I find it interesting that the 2nd tiebreaker goes from record from top of the standings and down. I think it should go from bottom of the standings and up. Poly losing to Davis is more understandable than Beach losing to CSUN. |
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