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Post by azsker on Nov 18, 2024 21:47:25 GMT -5
We’re heading in to the last couple weekends of B1G play. When do the predictions happen for all B1G happen? Did I miss it?
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 18, 2024 21:55:26 GMT -5
Some teams have gotten in 2 of the last 3 years with RPI’s in the 52-56 range, it’s not unheard of, and some of the teams that got in with that RPI didn’t have profiles that different from UCLA. You are right re: Michigan. UCLA is unlikely, but by no means are they out of this just yet. Every teams RPI potential is different at this point. For example, Purdue has a ton of upside in RPI if they win. They had a backloaded schedule in terms of W/L records/opponents. How many of these in the 52-56 were coming from the 60s/70s though? Aren't the mid-50s teams that were in the 40s/low 50s in pre-Thanksgiving RPI. UCLA will be in the situation USC was a couple of years ago (never forget Brown!). Sometimes it happens, the SEC ones were falling - LMU and actually (weirdly) Ball State were worse than their selection RPI (which was 50s) coming into the week. LMU made a miraculous jump, but that was a unique scenario. But UCLA getting Indiana and Illinois - that would bring them close enough in RPI IMO if they win both this week to have a chance to play-in from the Final weekend. Another very weird thing right now: 16 of the 18 teams in front of UCLA are non-P4 teams. There's usually a good amount in the 30s-60s range, but more spread out. They're all bunched together and that makes a TON of movement unpredictable as we enter conference tournaments. |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 18, 2024 22:01:12 GMT -5
How many of these in the 52-56 were coming from the 60s/70s though? Aren't the mid-50s teams that were in the 40s/low 50s in pre-Thanksgiving RPI. UCLA will be in the situation USC was a couple of years ago (never forget Brown!). Sometimes it happens, the SEC ones were falling - LMU and actually (weirdly) Ball State were worse than their selection RPI (which was 50s) coming into the week. LMU made a miraculous jump, but that was a unique scenario. But UCLA getting Indiana and Illinois - that would bring them close enough in RPI IMO if they win both this week to have a chance to play-in from the Final weekend. Another very weird thing right now: 16 of the 18 teams in front of UCLA are non-P4 teams. There's usually a good amount in the 30s-60s range, but more spread out. They're all bunched together and that makes a TON of movement unpredictable as we enter conference tournaments. LMU beat a regional host last week, right? I'd argue they got in based on the "overreaction" - what the Committee thought it would do to their RPI - versus actual RPI movement. Ball St. - I seem to recall them floating a lot that week - they may have been higher in the Friday AM RPI the Committee sat down with. |
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Post by volleynerd on Nov 19, 2024 20:15:35 GMT -5
CRUCIAL WEEK | TEAM | MATCH 1 | MATCH 2 | | Nebraska (16-0) | @ Iowa | v. Wisconsin* | | Penn State (15-1) | v. Purdue* | v. Washington | | Wisconsin (14-2) | v. Minnesota* | @ Nebraska* | | Purdue (13-3) | @ Penn State* | v. USC | | Oregon (11-5) | @ Michigan State | @ Michigan | | Minnesota (10-6) | @ Wisconsin* | v. Iowa | | USC (10-6) | @ Northwestern | @ Purdue | | Illinois (9-7) | v. Rutgers | v. UCLA | | Washington (9-7) | @ Ohio State | @ Penn State | | Michigan (6-10) | v. Maryland | v. Oregon | | UCLA (6-10) | @ Indiana | @ Illinois | | Indiana (5-11) | v. UCLA | @ Ohio State* | | Ohio State (5-11) | v. Washington | v. Indiana* | | Iowa (4-12) | v. Nebraska | @ Minnesota | | Maryland (4-12) | @ Michigan | @ Michigan State | | Michigan State (4-12) | v. Oregon | v. Maryland | | Northwestern (3-13) | v. USC | v. Rutgers | | Rutgers (0-16) | @ Illinois | @ Northwestern |
* will air on BTN WED NOV 20 Nebraska @ Iowa 7PM Minnesota @ Wisconsin 9PM BTNTHU NOV 21 Oregon @ Michigan State 6PM Purdue @ Penn State 6PM BTNMaryland @ Michigan 7PM Southern California @ Northwestern 8PM FRI NOV 22 Rutgers @ Illinois 5PM Washington @ Ohio State 7PM UCLA @ Indiana 7PM SAT NOV 23 Maryland @ Michigan State 1PM Oregon @ Michigan 7PM Southern California @ Purdue 7PM Rutgers @ Northwestern 8PM UCLA @ Illinois 8PM Wisconsin @ Nebraska 8PM BTNIowa @ Minnesota 8:30PM
SUN NOV 24 Washington @ Penn State 2PM Indiana @ Ohio State 7:30PM BTN |
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Post by photos1 on Nov 22, 2024 20:08:14 GMT -5
So only 8 B1G teams in the tournament? Washington is currently playing itself out of the tournament in Columbus, and their remaining schedule looks like they will be lucky to win even one of the three. Interesting. 🏐
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Post by skolgophers on Nov 22, 2024 20:19:57 GMT -5
So only 8 B1G teams in the tournament? Washington is currently playing itself out of the tournament in Columbus, and their remaining schedule looks like they will be lucky to win even one of the three. Interesting. 🏐 I would think they would still make it in even if they lose. Two top 20 wins over Oregon and MN. Remember, MN made it last year with losses to Rutgers and Maryland, so… |
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Post by photos1 on Nov 22, 2024 20:40:27 GMT -5
So only 8 B1G teams in the tournament? Washington is currently playing itself out of the tournament in Columbus, and their remaining schedule looks like they will be lucky to win even one of the three. Interesting. 🏐 I would think they would still make it in even if they lose. Two top 20 wins over Oregon and MN. Remember, MN made it last year with losses to Rutgers and Maryland, so… Yes, but Minnesota was 12-8 in the conference… Washington is most likely to end up 9-11 in conference…. |
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Post by skolgophers on Nov 22, 2024 20:49:17 GMT -5
I would think they would still make it in even if they lose. Two top 20 wins over Oregon and MN. Remember, MN made it last year with losses to Rutgers and Maryland, so… Yes, but Minnesota was 12-8 in the conference… Washington is most likely to end up 9-11 in conference…. valid point. I still think their RPI gets them in and their two top 20 wins. They could also fall victim to what KState did last year. Either way, not a good look. They even had Barton back for part of the match. |
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Post by mcmike on Nov 23, 2024 0:43:05 GMT -5
If Washington doesn't beat USC at home next week I would think their RPI would suffer
otoh, their KPI, another stat that has accuracy (same top 25 though in different order as of Friday night late)
has WA at #30 ahead of both Illinois (33)and Minnesota (35)
AI Overview of KPI
In volleyball rankings, KPI (Key Performance Indicator) is calculated by considering
a team's win-loss record,
the strength of their opponents,
the margin of victory,
the location of the match,
and sometimes even the opponent's KPI ranking, assigning a score for each game
which is then averaged across the season to produce a ranking;
essentially giving more weight to wins against strong opponents and
penalizing losses against weaker teams, providing a more nuanced picture than just win-loss record alone.
Key points about KPI calculation in volleyball:
Factors considered:
Opponent's winning percentage
Opponent's strength of schedule
Game result (win/loss)
Scoring margin
Location of the match (home/away/neutral)
Opponent's KPI ranking
Scoring system:
Each match is assigned a score on a scale, with a strong win against a tough opponent receiving a positive value close to 1.0 and a bad loss against a weak opponent receiving a negative value close to -1.0.
Averaging scores:
The scores from each game are averaged across the season to produce a final KPI ranking for the team.
Why is KPI used?
More comprehensive evaluation:
Unlike a simple win-loss record, KPI takes into account the quality of opponents and the margin of victory,
providing a more accurate picture of a team's performance.
Fairer selection process:
In NCAA tournaments, KPI can help selection committees choose teams that have played a challenging schedule
and performed well against strong opponents, even if their overall win-loss record might not be as impressive.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 23, 2024 0:52:47 GMT -5
Washington is most likely to end up 9-11 in conference…. If you think being under .500 in the B1G is going to make Washington miss the tournament... wonder what you think of Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Auburn, and Arkansas. Washington should get in, even if they lose their last 3. |
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Post by tablealgebra on Nov 23, 2024 16:09:27 GMT -5
Washington is most likely to end up 9-11 in conference…. If you think being under .500 in the B1G is going to make Washington miss the tournament... wonder what you think of Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Auburn, and Arkansas. Washington should get in, even if they lose their last 3. Could Illinois still play their way out? Those last three games are all loseable, and while 1-2 seems safe to them I wonder about 0-3 |
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 23, 2024 16:17:52 GMT -5
If you think being under .500 in the B1G is going to make Washington miss the tournament... wonder what you think of Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Auburn, and Arkansas. Washington should get in, even if they lose their last 3. Could Illinois still play their way out? Those last three games are all loseable, and while 1-2 seems safe to them I wonder about 0-3 IIllinois would be in trouble with 0-3. They could get help with WKU finishing Top 50, but their profile is already thin. I think they're fine with 1-2. The match tonight would be a great time to just take care of business. UCLA just got rolled by Indiana. |
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Post by bruinsgold on Nov 23, 2024 16:31:25 GMT -5
If you think being under .500 in the B1G is going to make Washington miss the tournament... wonder what you think of Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Auburn, and Arkansas. Washington should get in, even if they lose their last 3. Could Illinois still play their way out? Those last three games are all loseable, and while 1-2 seems safe to them I wonder about 0-3 UCLA is without Anna Dodson, so if Illinois drops this match to them, well then.... |
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Post by tablealgebra on Nov 23, 2024 23:30:09 GMT -5
Could Illinois still play their way out? Those last three games are all loseable, and while 1-2 seems safe to them I wonder about 0-3 UCLA is without Anna Dodson, so if Illinois drops this match to them, well then.... Well then, indeed. Oof to them. |
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Post by northwoods on Nov 24, 2024 8:36:06 GMT -5
Illinois needs to stay ahead of Washington in the standings. Going 1-2 or worse in the last 3 isn’t a great look, but Washington has PSU, USC and Purdue left so a 3-0 run on their part is not likely.
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