Post by dunninla3 on Mar 30, 2024 19:45:07 GMT -5
**edited 4/7 to add Mudinger representing USA at NORCECA Tour finals in five weeks, and eliminating USA4 from any realistic chance to compete for USA2 spot. That partner swap def did not work out for Tri or Chaim.
*** edited 4/11 to stick the fork in Lupo/Rossi who just lost in Q1 in Guadalajara.
Here is the Men's table of Top 10 finishes in the Olympic points race for Paris,. 18 teams qualify, counting that one of the 18 is the World Champion.
Men's Rankings, Top 10 finishes
Yellow means played Saquarema.
1. NOR, Mol / Sorum, 10820,
2. SWE, Åhman / Hellvig, 10320
3. CZE, Perusic / Schweiner, 8980 (7780 + 600 +600)
-- note: (have played only 8, assumes 9th/10th finishes will equal lowest counting)
4. USA1, Benesh / Partain, 8220
-- note: (have played only 9, assumes 10th finish will equal lowest counting)
5. GER, Ehlers / Wickler, 8040
6. ITA1, Cottafava / Nicolai, 7880
7. NED1, Boermans / De Groot, 7840, (6640 + 600 +600)
-- note: (have played only 8, assumes 9th/10th finishes will equal lowest counting)
8. BRA1, George / Andre, 7580
9. POL, Bryl / Losiak, 7720
+ 10. BRA2, Evandro / Arthur, 7340
10. QAT, Cherif / Ahmed, 7340
12. NED2, Brouwer / Meeuwsen, 7240
13. ITA2, Ranghieri / Carambula, 6920
14. ESP, Herrera / Gavira, 6720
6. ITA1, Cottafava / Nicolai, 7880
7. NED1, Boermans / De Groot, 7840, (6640 + 600 +600)
-- note: (have played only 8, assumes 9th/10th finishes will equal lowest counting)
8. BRA1, George / Andre, 7580
9. POL, Bryl / Losiak, 7720
+ 10. BRA2, Evandro / Arthur, 7340
10. QAT, Cherif / Ahmed, 7340
12. NED2, Brouwer / Meeuwsen, 7240
13. ITA2, Ranghieri / Carambula, 6920
14. ESP, Herrera / Gavira, 6720
IMO 1-14 are already secure in their Olympic berth via Points
----------- IMO all the below are still in play, some more than others/ Below each team's finish listing is a listing of in which of the next 4 FIVB tournaments the team is registered to play.
15. AUS1, Hodges / Schubert, 6580, (800,800,800,760,720,600,600,460,460,460) 460,460
---Notes: MxCha (Y), Mx E16(N), CHNCha (Y), BRA E16 (N)
16. USA2, Budinger / Evans, 6580 (800,760,720,(720 min. coming from NORCECA Finals May 13) 680,640,600,600,600,460) 460,460
---Notes: MxCha (Y), Mx E16(Y), CHNCha (Y), BRA E16 (Q1)
xx. USA3, Crabb / Brunner, 6460 (1120, 800,760,600,600,600,600,460,460,460) 400,360
---Notes: MxCha (Y), Mx E16(Y), CHNCha (Y), BRA E16 (Q13)
17. AUT1, Hörl / Horst 6340, (900,760,720,640,600,600,600,600,460,460) 460,460
---Notes: MxCha (Y), Mx E16(Y), CHNCha (Y), BRA E16 (Y)
18. CHI, Grimalt / Grimalt, 5820 (760,760,760,640,600,460,460,460,460,460) 400,384
---Notes: MxCha (Y), Mx E16(WL6), CHNCha (Y), BRA E16 (WL2)
-------------
19. AUT2, Seidl / Pristauz, 5740 (800,800,720,640,600,460,460,460,400,400) 360,360
19. AUT2, Seidl / Pristauz, 5740 (800,800,720,640,600,460,460,460,400,400) 360,360
---Notes: MxCha (Y), Mx E16(Y), CHNCha (Y), BRA E16 (Y)
20. NOR2, MolH, / Berntsen, 5400, (760,720,640,600,460,460,460,460,460,400) 360,300
---Notes: MxCha (Y), Mx E16(Y), CHNCha (Y), BRA E16 (Y)
21. POL2, Kantor / Zdybak, 5360, (760,680,640,600,600,460,460,460,360,340) 300,300
---Notes: MxCha (N), Mx E16(N), CHNCha (Y), BRA E16 (Y)
22. CAN, Schachter / Dearing, 5260, (760,640,600,600,600,460,460,400,400,340) 340,300
---Notes: MxCha (Y), Mx E16(Y), CHNCha (Y), BRA E16 (Y)
23. LTU, Stankevicius / Knasas, 5000 (720,600,600,600,460,460,460,400,360,340) 300,220
---Notes: MxCha (Y), Mx E16(WL3), CHNCha (Y), BRA E16 (Y)
25. CUB, Diaz / Alayo, 4900 (800,760,760,680,640,460,460,432,384,340) 320,256
---Notes: MxCha (Y), Mx E16(Y), CHNCha (Y), BRA E16 (N)
----------------- IMO Olympic Points race is over for these
xx. NED3, Immers / Partner, 6320 (900,800,800,760,600,600,600,600,460,400) 340,340
---Notes: MxCha (Y), Mx E16(Y), CHNCha (N), BRA E16 (Y)
---Notes: MxCha (Y), Mx E16(Y), CHNCha (N), BRA E16 (Y)
xx. USA4, Schalk / Bourne, 5760
24. ITA, Lupo / Rossi, 4920
26. AUS2, McHugh / Burnett, 4900
27. FRA1, Krou / Gauthier-Rat, 4660,
28. ENG, Bello / Bello, 4720
27. FRA1, Krou / Gauthier-Rat, 4660,
28. ENG, Bello / Bello, 4720
BRA3 and BRA4
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-------
Cuba:
Cuba is registered for the next 3 events: Guadalajara Challenge, Tepic E16, and Xiamen Challenge. However, they are not registered for the Brasilia E16... and I'm relatively sure the application deadline is Event -35 days, so I think they missed that one. Still, there are two Challenge and two E16 events after Brasilia E16, so Cuba could very well enter the Top 18 given their level of play lately. Essentially Cuba have the possibility of 7 Pro Tour points finishes, and (presumably) 1 NORCECA Tour Finals on May 13, for a total of 8 events in which to score highly and make top 18.
Race for USA2:
Race for NED2:
Brouwer/Meeuwsen are currently NED2 (this is after factoring in a couple of finishes that Boermans / de Groot will pick up soon). NED3 is Immers / unmentionable Partner. I personally think NED3 is playing better than NED2 at the moment. However, they are approx. 900 points behind, so the odds are quite low. I am removing NED3 and will reevaluate after Brasialia E16 in case they make a monumental run during the next three events. Guarantee you Immers' partner was unable to secure a visa to play in China... they are very picky about issuing visas to convicted felons. This is Immers' partners last chance to play in the Olympics... the USA, like Canada, China, Australia and many other countries will not issue visas to convicted felons. So no LA 2028 for him.
Race for BRA2: (over)
After last week's performance by BRA2 Evandro / Arthur, they are about 1000 points ahead of BRA3, Pedro / Guto. I don't think that gulf is bridgeable with only 7 tournaments remaining, and the average level of play by BRA3 lately. I'm calling that race over.
Zone Competitions: (early June)
These rankings above are for one avenue of Olympic Quaification... FIVB Points. There is another avenue, the 5 Zone Competitions. Teams that fail to qualify via Points, assuming no more than 1 team has already qualified from their country via Points, may qualify via Zone Competition, 1 team per Zone.
Zones:
-NORCECA: If Cuba fails to attain Top 18 points, odds are better than 50/50 they win the NORCECA over CAN and MEX
-South America: Brazil will have met its Country Quota of 2, so that leaves as leading candidates Chile, (Grimalts), should Chile fail to finish Top 18. Also Argentina would have good odds of winning this competition and representing this Zone for the Olympics. As would CHI2.
-Asia, including Australia: Assuming AUS1 qualifies via points, then AUS2 could compete here as the favorite and gain a berth to Paris.
-Africa: not that familiar with African Zone teams. Tunisia? Morocco?
-Europe: Apparently this is a long process started a few months back. I don't know if AUT2, POL2, NOR2, LTU, etc. are participating. If so, this is their 2nd chance if they don't qualify via points.