Big 12 2024

[trojansc]

Many of the teams that I have predicted to make the NCAA Tournament, only for them to get snubbed, end up having absolutely awful season(s) following that year:

2017 North Texas (29-4) --> (19-17)
2018 Kansas State (15-12) --> (9-19)
2018 Kansas (15-12) --> (9-17)
2021 Syracuse (17-13) --> (11-17) and (2-26) the year after

The winner though:

2019 Cal (20-10) --> Cal went 1-61 over its PAC-12 matches in the following three seasons


Unfortunately, Kansas State is probably that team this year (and it happened to them before)!

[bluepenquin]

Sept 23, 2024 1:09:01 GMT -5 JJVb said:

Sept 23, 2024 1:04:43 GMT -5 JJVb said:

Standings going into conference:
Arizona 11-0
ASU 11-1
Utah 10-1
Kansas 9-1
Cincinnati 9-2
TCU 8-2
UCF 7-2
Baylor 8-3
BYU 7-3
Texas Tech 8-4
Colorado 7-5
Iowa State 6-5
W Virginia 6-5
Houston 5-5
Kansas St 2-7

Some of these noncon results were not anticipated, such as KSU. Still see Top 3 as TCU, Kansas, and ASU battling it out. I feel there are a few others in the next group of teams below them that will challenge, but that's tbd.

I see a top 2 - Kansas and Arizona State.  Then TCU, Baylor, and Utah are roughly the same.  Maybe BYU if they get their act together.  Arizona is sort of intriguing (TBD) - and the rest of the conference has been disappointing.  

[bbg95]

Sept 23, 2024 6:52:44 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Sept 23, 2024 1:09:01 GMT -5 JJVb said:

Some of these noncon results were not anticipated, such as KSU. Still see Top 3 as TCU, Kansas, and ASU battling it out. I feel there are a few others in the next group of teams below them that will challenge, but that's tbd.

I see a top 2 - Kansas and Arizona State.  Then TCU, Baylor, and Utah are roughly the same.  Maybe BYU if they get their act together.  Arizona is sort of intriguing (TBD) - and the rest of the conference has been disappointing.  

Has Utah beaten anyone that matters yet? UTEP, Utah State, Green Bay, Cal, Loyola Chicago x2, Northeastern, Albany, Coppin State, Wyoming. They were swept by the one really good opponent they played in Purdue. They could be one of the better teams, but I need to see more evidence.

[bluepenquin]

Sept 23, 2024 11:11:19 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Sept 23, 2024 6:52:44 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I see a top 2 - Kansas and Arizona State.  Then TCU, Baylor, and Utah are roughly the same.  Maybe BYU if they get their act together.  Arizona is sort of intriguing (TBD) - and the rest of the conference has been disappointing.  

Has Utah beaten anyone that matters yet? UTEP, Utah State, Green Bay, Cal, Loyola Chicago x2, Northeastern, Albany, Coppin State, Wyoming. They were swept by the one really good opponent they played in Purdue. They could be one of the better teams, but I need to see more evidence.

Massey has Utah the same as TCU and sees a hypothetical match as being 50% win probability for each team.  Massey thinks Baylor and BYU are clearly better than both TCU and Utah.  While Pablo sees Utah, Baylor and TCU as being roughly equal and BYU a tick behind.

The metrics seem rather impressed with Utah thus far.  We will see what happens with Utah in conference.  They aren't nearly as high up as Arizona State and Cal were at this time last year - but Pablo was able to accurately see that those teams were much better than anyone thought before they actually beat a decent team.

[hookem1]

Kansas State 2-7 with a loss to UCDavis? And swept at home by OU and UCSB? Yikes…

[vbjustice]

Sept 23, 2024 11:52:51 GMT -5 hookem1 said:

Kansas State 2-7 with a loss to UCDavis? And swept at home by OU and UCSB? Yikes…

what’s happening with them? I’ve had high hopes for this team.

[uofaGRAD]

Sept 23, 2024 1:17:37 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Many of the teams that I have predicted to make the NCAA Tournament, only for them to get snubbed, end up having absolutely awful season(s) following that year:

2017 North Texas (29-4) --> (19-17)
2018 Kansas State (15-12) --> (9-19)
2018 Kansas (15-12) --> (9-17)
2021 Syracuse (17-13) --> (11-17) and (2-26) the year after

The winner though:

2019 Cal (20-10) --> Cal went 1-61 over its PAC-12 matches in the following three seasons


Unfortunately, Kansas State is probably that team this year (and it happened to them before)!

Amanda Chamberlain deserved the world...

[ksusideout]

wrt to KSU- Can't pass and even with good pass OH aren't great putting the ball away. Clinton was hurt before the beginning of the season and was really struggling. Now seems to be playing much better in the last 2 games. Lots of lineup changes. Recently changed to a 6-2 (Izzi and Legrand) and moved Meg from Opp back to Middle. still trying to find 2nd MB (Schmidt, Williams and now Jones is in the mix, but not really getting set when she is in there). They are struggling for sure.

[trojansc]

I wouldn't be surprised with a wide variety of results coming from BYU. Poor serve receive can bleed points in a hurry and lead to some pretty big upsets on paper. But you can offset that with point scoring and physicality if you can end up at least passing good enough.

Then, you add in how good BYU is in Provo, and feels like they could pull off big wins and some questionable losses. They get cracks at ASU, Baylor, and TCU at home, but only play Kansas on the road.

[hookem1]

Sept 23, 2024 12:48:34 GMT -5 ksusideout said:

wrt to KSU- Can't pass and even with good pass OH aren't great putting the ball away. Clinton was hurt before the beginning of the season and was really struggling. Now seems to be playing much better in the last 2 games. Lots of lineup changes. Recently changed to a 6-2 (Izzi and Legrand) and moved Meg from Opp back to Middle. still trying to find 2nd MB (Schmidt, Williams and now Jones is in the mix, but not really getting set when she is in there). They are struggling for sure.

Do you think Morris was a bigger loss than anticipated from within the team? She was a rock for them.

Yeah the hitting percentages are pretty rough. All the pins are hitting under .175, and Carter has 416 attempts, which is 222 more than the next closest player (194, Brown). Pretty insane stuff.

[bbg95]

Sept 23, 2024 6:52:44 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Sept 23, 2024 1:09:01 GMT -5 JJVb said:

Some of these noncon results were not anticipated, such as KSU. Still see Top 3 as TCU, Kansas, and ASU battling it out. I feel there are a few others in the next group of teams below them that will challenge, but that's tbd.

Maybe BYU if they get their act together.   

Yeah, hard to know exactly what to make of them so far. They're a young team that is starting true freshmen at setter, outside, opposite and DS. And their other outside and one of their middles are sophomores. Only two upperclassmen (Strong and Billeter) are getting much playing time. I do think the younger hitters that are playing have a lot of talent, but they're inexperienced. And of course, passing continues to be an issue. We'll see how they do in conference.

Edit: also, Kemovor is a sophomore, but she barely played last season. And Little missed a fair amount of the season due to injury.

[bluepenquin]

Sept 23, 2024 13:07:11 GMT -5 hookem1 said:

Sept 23, 2024 12:48:34 GMT -5 ksusideout said:

wrt to KSU- Can't pass and even with good pass OH aren't great putting the ball away. Clinton was hurt before the beginning of the season and was really struggling. Now seems to be playing much better in the last 2 games. Lots of lineup changes. Recently changed to a 6-2 (Izzi and Legrand) and moved Meg from Opp back to Middle. still trying to find 2nd MB (Schmidt, Williams and now Jones is in the mix, but not really getting set when she is in there). They are struggling for sure.

Do you think Morris was a bigger loss than anticipated from within the team? She was a rock for them.

Yeah the hitting percentages are pretty rough. All the pins are hitting under .175, and Carter has 416 attempts, which is 222 more than the next closest player (194, Brown). Pretty insane stuff.

That is certainly the first thought one could/should have.  There are no other differences except replacing the MB's with players that should be just as good if not better.  Disappointment doesn't even begin to tell the story here.  I just assume they will only figure this out when it comes time to play Kansas - as at this point, those are the only 2 games worth anything left to their season.  

[bluepenquin]

Sept 23, 2024 13:12:29 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Sept 23, 2024 6:52:44 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Maybe BYU if they get their act together.   

Yeah, hard to know exactly what to make of them so far. They're a young team that is starting true freshmen at setter, outside, opposite and DS. And their other outside and one of their middles are sophomores. Only two upperclassmen (Strong and Billeter) are getting much playing time. I do think the younger hitters that are playing have a lot of talent, but they're inexperienced. And of course, passing continues to be an issue. We'll see how they do in conference.

Seems like way too much talent to miss the tournament (which is a possibility at this point).  The Big 12 is so bad this year - they have a chance to win a lot of matches while being just okay.  BYU vs. Utah twice should be interesting.  Teams going in different directions in terms of expectations.  I would have given Utah very little chance of beating BYU before the season.

[ksusideout]

Sept 23, 2024 13:13:39 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Sept 23, 2024 13:07:11 GMT -5 hookem1 said:

Do you think Morris was a bigger loss than anticipated from within the team? She was a rock for them.

Yeah the hitting percentages are pretty rough. All the pins are hitting under .175, and Carter has 416 attempts, which is 222 more than the next closest player (194, Brown). Pretty insane stuff.

That is certainly the first thought one could/should have.  There are no other differences except replacing the MB's with players that should be just as good if not better.  Disappointment doesn't even begin to tell the story here.  I just assume they will only figure this out when it comes time to play Kansas - as at this point, those are the only 2 games worth anything left to their season.  

They miss Morris for sure, but they also are missing Bolding too.  Williams has been hurt/sick in MB.   they need more production from everyone honestly.      they need to find a spark and focus.   Little things get messed up like bumping the ball over the net on a broken play and instead they bump it out of bounds/into the net.    Painful to watch as a KSU fan.  

[photos1]

Sorta muddled… but after the ooc it’s clear, ASU is the best team and will win the Big12… but you all know that.

🏐