Post by ccman on Nov 27, 2010 11:38:43 GMT -5
Bubble Analysis :
1st of all. Conference tournament surprise Utah State burst one bubble.
2nd of all, Utah (RPI 91) was really a tremendous 'barometer' team. Utah made for probably the best team to evaluate the whole country. They played & beat Colo. State in conference at Colo. St. Non-conference, they lost to Utah State at home & beat Mississippi on neutral site. The beat Northwestern in Evanstan. They beat ASU in Phoenix, and lost to Pacific in Phoenix, and lost to Michigan in Phoenix. If the committee looks at Utah, they'll agree with my selections, if they don't, they'll put Mississippi in which I think would be wrong. Utah lost to Missouri State & Oklahoma in Missouri. In the end, there is no question that Utah had the best non-conference schedule (that is if you want every single match to count - it was unbelievably tough - Utah is a tournament team that won't be in - they are not the 91st team in the country - no way).
Missouri State's loss in the quarters of the MVC caused a lot of re-evalution. Creighton secured its spot during the MVC tournament. After the MVC 1st round results, and looking at Missouri State they don't have a good road win, even with good home wins (NC & St. Louis). Creighton had a tougher non-conference and won some good matches on the road non-conference (at Marquette, at St. Louis). I like Creighton. The last bubble evaluation came down to Missouri State, VaTech, Auburn, Western Kentucky, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Cal Poly, St. Marys, SMU & New Mexico. Indiana removed any doubt taking down Illinois, and Long Beach removed any doubt taking down Notre Dame (and Marquette's & SMUs last hopes as well). Georgia Tech over Clemson is too little too late. SMU can beat Tulsa, but that won't make up for their losses to Wichita State & New Mexico. New Mexico's good wins were all at home, just like Missouri State, and New Mexico played a hard schedule, going to a super tough Hawaii tournament. Wisconsin needed a good road win against Purdue, beating Indiana won't do it at this point - too little too late. VaTech gets in, even with an inflated RPI. Un-ACC like results for VaTech, playing better out of conference than in, played a tough non-conference schedule, and beating Missouri & Western Ky in Kentucky made the difference. Western Kentucky is a difficult decision, they got some good road wins similar to those of Creighton, played a good non-conference schedule, beating Missouri at home, but would have liked to have seen them beat Mid Tenn State once (0-3). I almost replaced Western Ky with St. Marys or Ole Miss.
St. Marys, Mississippi, Missouri State, New Mexico were all similar in that they did not get a good non-conference win on the road, and Missouri State didn't get a good conference win on the road as well. Mississippi did not play a good non-conf. schedule at all and the loss to Utah on a neutral site stood out and is what finally caused me to put them behind the western teams St. Marys & New Mexico, who played tough non-conf schedules.
The last remaining matches that could possibly change things are SMU @ Tulsa & Pacific vs. St. Marys. To the NCAA it probably won't matter, but it would almost get St. Marys in on my bubble watch if they win, and might knock out New Mexico or Cal Poly due to St. Mary's slightly tougher schedule. The NCAA won't put St. Marys in over New Mexico. Pepperdine, despite losing 2 to St. Marys, they have the win over Fullerton on a neutral site. Pepperdine has the better non-conference win. St. Marys had a brutal schedule, finished well, and 2 wins against Pepperdine (one on the road) & the win against Marquette are as good as a win over North Carolina and Wichita State at home by Missouri State. New Mexico's wins were all at home, like Missouri State, but Missouri State had a tougher schedule in the MVC conference. Missouri State gets the nod over Mississippi because again, Mississippi played a patsy non-conference schedule. I expect the NCAA to differ and put in Mississippi over St. Marys or New Mexico. If St. Marys loses to Pacific, they have no chance, and it would actually boost Cal Poly's resume. Cal Poly played a tough non-conference schedule, with the neutral win over Arizona. I don't expect the NCAA to let Cal Poly survive due to RPI.
Ole Miss, Auburn, Cal Poly, Oregon, Pepperdine, Missouri State, New Mexico, SMU, St. Marys, Western Kentucky are all going to be interesting to see how the NCAA treats them.
Oregon is out, an easy non-conference and no good road wins dooms them (although beating ASU in Tempe looks pretty good).
Western Ky, Auburn, Cal Poly, VaTech, Missouri State, New Mexico are the last 6 teams in, with New Mexico & Cal Poly as the very last team in. I expect the NCAA to keep Cal Poly out.
Ole Miss, St Marys, SMU, Wisconsin, & Oregon are the last 5 teams out. Ole Miss & St. Marys are the very last 2 teams out of the tournament. I expect the NCAA to put Ole Miss in instead of Cal Poly.
Last Teams Out: (non-conf wins preferred - these teams don't have a stand-out non-conf win)
SMU: (Best Win - UCSB)
Georgia Tech (Best Win: FSU, Miami)
Western Michigan (Best Win: Notre Dame)
Ole Miss (not a good out of conference schedule, BW: Kentucky on the road)
Oregon (Best Win: Washington at home)
St Marys (Best Win: Marquette at home)
Last Teams In:
Creighton (BW: Marquette on the road, St. Louis on the road, Wichita State- tournament)
Pepperdine (Best Win: Fullerton, San Diego)
VaTech (Best Win: Western Ky, FSU)
Cal Poly (Best Win: Arizona, Long Beach State, both on the road)
Missouri State: (Best Win: North Carolina at home)
Auburn: (Best Win: Middle Tenn. State)
Western Kentucky: (Best Win: Xavier on the road, St. Louis on the road)
Most Overrated Team: Duke
Most Underrated Team: tie, Fullerton, Arizona State, Utah
Most Overrated Conference: ACC
Most Underated Conference: Big 10, Big West
What wouldn't surprise me: NCAA leaving out Va Tech, Western Kentucky, Missouri State, or New Mexico.
NCAA giving a bid to SMU if they beat Tulsa.
What would surprise me: NCAA not giving bid to Mississippi, giving bid to Cal Poly or St. Marys.
Team that would make me barf if they get in: Oregon, Oregon, Oregon
Top 16 Seeds: (shuffled for inter-conference match-ups)
#1: Florida
#2: Stanford
#3: Nebraska
#4: Penn State
#5: Cal
#6: USC
#7: Northern Iowa
#8: Minnesota
#9: Texas
#10: Hawaii
#11: Illinois
#12: Cinncinnati
#13: LSU
#14: Dayton
#15: Iowa State
#16: UCLA
16 1st/2nd round Hosts:
Cal, Neb, Florida, Illinois,
Stanford, Hawaii, USC, PSU, Cinncinnati, Texas, Purdue, Minnesota, Duke, Northern Iowa, LSU, Colo. State
1 team leagues not below (15):
SWAC,Patriot, AmEast,BigSouth,Southern, NEC, BigSky,MEAC,Horizon,Ivy,Colonial,Summit,OVC,AtlSun, Southland
Big Ten (8)
IN: PSU, Ill, Mich, NW, Indy, Pur, Minn, OSU
Bubble Out: Wisconsin
Pac-10 (6)
IN: Cal, Stan, UW, Ariz, UCLA, USC
Out: Nike University
Big12 (5)
IN: Neb, Tex, ISU, Mizzou, Ok
SEC (5)
In: LSU, Tenn, FL, Kentucky
Bubble In: Auburn
Bubble Out: Ole Miss
MVC (4)
In: NI, Wich St.,
Bubble In: Missouri St., Creighton
Big West (3)
In: Fullerton, Long Beach
Bubble In: CalPoly
WCC: (2)
In: San Diego
Bubble In: Pepperdine
Bubble Out: St. Marys
Big East (2)
In: Cincy, Louisville
Bubble Out Consolation: Marquette - plays Northern Illinois, free Pizza Hut for fans!!
WAC (2):
IN: Hawaii, Utah State
ACC (5)
In: Duke, Miami, North Carolina, FSU
Bubble In: VaTech
Bubble Out: Georgia Tech, Maryland
Atl-10 (1)
In: Dayton
Bubble Out: Xavier
SunBelt: (2)
IN: MIddle Tenn
Bubble In: Western Ky,
Conf USA: (1)
In: Tulsa
Bubble Out: SMU
MWC: (2).
In: Colo. St.
Bubble In: New Mexico
MAC: (1)
Ohio
Out: Ball State, Western Mich (beat Notre Dame, not enough), North Ill (plays Marquette, probably too little too late)
1st of all. Conference tournament surprise Utah State burst one bubble.
2nd of all, Utah (RPI 91) was really a tremendous 'barometer' team. Utah made for probably the best team to evaluate the whole country. They played & beat Colo. State in conference at Colo. St. Non-conference, they lost to Utah State at home & beat Mississippi on neutral site. The beat Northwestern in Evanstan. They beat ASU in Phoenix, and lost to Pacific in Phoenix, and lost to Michigan in Phoenix. If the committee looks at Utah, they'll agree with my selections, if they don't, they'll put Mississippi in which I think would be wrong. Utah lost to Missouri State & Oklahoma in Missouri. In the end, there is no question that Utah had the best non-conference schedule (that is if you want every single match to count - it was unbelievably tough - Utah is a tournament team that won't be in - they are not the 91st team in the country - no way).
Missouri State's loss in the quarters of the MVC caused a lot of re-evalution. Creighton secured its spot during the MVC tournament. After the MVC 1st round results, and looking at Missouri State they don't have a good road win, even with good home wins (NC & St. Louis). Creighton had a tougher non-conference and won some good matches on the road non-conference (at Marquette, at St. Louis). I like Creighton. The last bubble evaluation came down to Missouri State, VaTech, Auburn, Western Kentucky, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Cal Poly, St. Marys, SMU & New Mexico. Indiana removed any doubt taking down Illinois, and Long Beach removed any doubt taking down Notre Dame (and Marquette's & SMUs last hopes as well). Georgia Tech over Clemson is too little too late. SMU can beat Tulsa, but that won't make up for their losses to Wichita State & New Mexico. New Mexico's good wins were all at home, just like Missouri State, and New Mexico played a hard schedule, going to a super tough Hawaii tournament. Wisconsin needed a good road win against Purdue, beating Indiana won't do it at this point - too little too late. VaTech gets in, even with an inflated RPI. Un-ACC like results for VaTech, playing better out of conference than in, played a tough non-conference schedule, and beating Missouri & Western Ky in Kentucky made the difference. Western Kentucky is a difficult decision, they got some good road wins similar to those of Creighton, played a good non-conference schedule, beating Missouri at home, but would have liked to have seen them beat Mid Tenn State once (0-3). I almost replaced Western Ky with St. Marys or Ole Miss.
St. Marys, Mississippi, Missouri State, New Mexico were all similar in that they did not get a good non-conference win on the road, and Missouri State didn't get a good conference win on the road as well. Mississippi did not play a good non-conf. schedule at all and the loss to Utah on a neutral site stood out and is what finally caused me to put them behind the western teams St. Marys & New Mexico, who played tough non-conf schedules.
The last remaining matches that could possibly change things are SMU @ Tulsa & Pacific vs. St. Marys. To the NCAA it probably won't matter, but it would almost get St. Marys in on my bubble watch if they win, and might knock out New Mexico or Cal Poly due to St. Mary's slightly tougher schedule. The NCAA won't put St. Marys in over New Mexico. Pepperdine, despite losing 2 to St. Marys, they have the win over Fullerton on a neutral site. Pepperdine has the better non-conference win. St. Marys had a brutal schedule, finished well, and 2 wins against Pepperdine (one on the road) & the win against Marquette are as good as a win over North Carolina and Wichita State at home by Missouri State. New Mexico's wins were all at home, like Missouri State, but Missouri State had a tougher schedule in the MVC conference. Missouri State gets the nod over Mississippi because again, Mississippi played a patsy non-conference schedule. I expect the NCAA to differ and put in Mississippi over St. Marys or New Mexico. If St. Marys loses to Pacific, they have no chance, and it would actually boost Cal Poly's resume. Cal Poly played a tough non-conference schedule, with the neutral win over Arizona. I don't expect the NCAA to let Cal Poly survive due to RPI.
Ole Miss, Auburn, Cal Poly, Oregon, Pepperdine, Missouri State, New Mexico, SMU, St. Marys, Western Kentucky are all going to be interesting to see how the NCAA treats them.
Oregon is out, an easy non-conference and no good road wins dooms them (although beating ASU in Tempe looks pretty good).
Western Ky, Auburn, Cal Poly, VaTech, Missouri State, New Mexico are the last 6 teams in, with New Mexico & Cal Poly as the very last team in. I expect the NCAA to keep Cal Poly out.
Ole Miss, St Marys, SMU, Wisconsin, & Oregon are the last 5 teams out. Ole Miss & St. Marys are the very last 2 teams out of the tournament. I expect the NCAA to put Ole Miss in instead of Cal Poly.
Last Teams Out: (non-conf wins preferred - these teams don't have a stand-out non-conf win)
SMU: (Best Win - UCSB)
Georgia Tech (Best Win: FSU, Miami)
Western Michigan (Best Win: Notre Dame)
Ole Miss (not a good out of conference schedule, BW: Kentucky on the road)
Oregon (Best Win: Washington at home)
St Marys (Best Win: Marquette at home)
Last Teams In:
Creighton (BW: Marquette on the road, St. Louis on the road, Wichita State- tournament)
Pepperdine (Best Win: Fullerton, San Diego)
VaTech (Best Win: Western Ky, FSU)
Cal Poly (Best Win: Arizona, Long Beach State, both on the road)
Missouri State: (Best Win: North Carolina at home)
Auburn: (Best Win: Middle Tenn. State)
Western Kentucky: (Best Win: Xavier on the road, St. Louis on the road)
Most Overrated Team: Duke
Most Underrated Team: tie, Fullerton, Arizona State, Utah
Most Overrated Conference: ACC
Most Underated Conference: Big 10, Big West
What wouldn't surprise me: NCAA leaving out Va Tech, Western Kentucky, Missouri State, or New Mexico.
NCAA giving a bid to SMU if they beat Tulsa.
What would surprise me: NCAA not giving bid to Mississippi, giving bid to Cal Poly or St. Marys.
Team that would make me barf if they get in: Oregon, Oregon, Oregon
Top 16 Seeds: (shuffled for inter-conference match-ups)
#1: Florida
#2: Stanford
#3: Nebraska
#4: Penn State
#5: Cal
#6: USC
#7: Northern Iowa
#8: Minnesota
#9: Texas
#10: Hawaii
#11: Illinois
#12: Cinncinnati
#13: LSU
#14: Dayton
#15: Iowa State
#16: UCLA
16 1st/2nd round Hosts:
Cal, Neb, Florida, Illinois,
Stanford, Hawaii, USC, PSU, Cinncinnati, Texas, Purdue, Minnesota, Duke, Northern Iowa, LSU, Colo. State
1 team leagues not below (15):
SWAC,Patriot, AmEast,BigSouth,Southern, NEC, BigSky,MEAC,Horizon,Ivy,Colonial,Summit,OVC,AtlSun, Southland
Big Ten (8)
IN: PSU, Ill, Mich, NW, Indy, Pur, Minn, OSU
Bubble Out: Wisconsin
Pac-10 (6)
IN: Cal, Stan, UW, Ariz, UCLA, USC
Out: Nike University
Big12 (5)
IN: Neb, Tex, ISU, Mizzou, Ok
SEC (5)
In: LSU, Tenn, FL, Kentucky
Bubble In: Auburn
Bubble Out: Ole Miss
MVC (4)
In: NI, Wich St.,
Bubble In: Missouri St., Creighton
Big West (3)
In: Fullerton, Long Beach
Bubble In: CalPoly
WCC: (2)
In: San Diego
Bubble In: Pepperdine
Bubble Out: St. Marys
Big East (2)
In: Cincy, Louisville
Bubble Out Consolation: Marquette - plays Northern Illinois, free Pizza Hut for fans!!
WAC (2):
IN: Hawaii, Utah State
ACC (5)
In: Duke, Miami, North Carolina, FSU
Bubble In: VaTech
Bubble Out: Georgia Tech, Maryland
Atl-10 (1)
In: Dayton
Bubble Out: Xavier
SunBelt: (2)
IN: MIddle Tenn
Bubble In: Western Ky,
Conf USA: (1)
In: Tulsa
Bubble Out: SMU
MWC: (2).
In: Colo. St.
Bubble In: New Mexico
MAC: (1)
Ohio
Out: Ball State, Western Mich (beat Notre Dame, not enough), North Ill (plays Marquette, probably too little too late)
