Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 12, 2012 0:16:12 GMT -5
I'm having trouble finding teams to fill in the bubble this year... I think a lot of it has to do with my own biases, so I'll be going through this one more time to add a few teams who may be in contention.
Here's the breakdown.
31-Auto-bids (I only have seen 2-clinched so far). I also have categories for "sure thing", "bubble", and "conference rep."
23-Bubble teams vying for about 16 spots by these calculations... it's good to be a bubble team in 2012.
This appears to be a year where big conferences will just totally dominate the at-large selections.
Let me know who I missed.
##Sorry for the confusion on the scores. I add them in from a linked table and used last year's table (twice). These should be up-to-date as of 11/11.
Here's the breakdown.
31-Auto-bids (I only have seen 2-clinched so far). I also have categories for "sure thing", "bubble", and "conference rep."
23-Bubble teams vying for about 16 spots by these calculations... it's good to be a bubble team in 2012.
- Automatic Bid: Given to champions of 31-Conferences (listed below)
- Sure Thing: The committee will have to be on drugs or absolute idiots to not include these teams.
- Bubble: These teams are all vying for the remaining places after the Auto-bids and "sure things" have been placed. These teams have to win, win, and hope they are in a geographically convenient location.
- Conference Rep: A team I picked from their conference to win their auto-bid if the conference didn't have a sure-thing and probably will only send one team.
This appears to be a year where big conferences will just totally dominate the at-large selections.
Let me know who I missed.
##Sorry for the confusion on the scores. I add them in from a linked table and used last year's table (twice). These should be up-to-date as of 11/11.
Conference | Team | W | L | perc | AutomaticBid | ConfRep | SureThing | Bubble | Note |
| America East | Albany | 13 | 14 | 0.48 | 1 | America East will get one team. It'll be decided this weekend 11/16-18 | |||
| Atlantic 10 | Dayton | 23 | 4 | 0.85 | 1 | Dayton should get in regardless. If they lose Atlantic 10, then A-10 should get two. A-10 Tourney runs 11/16-18. | |||
| Atlantic Coast | Florida State | 24 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | No Conference Tournament | |||
| Atlantic Coast | Miami-FL | 23 | 4 | 0.85 | 1 | ||||
| Atlantic Coast | North Carolina | 22 | 5 | 0.82 | 1 | ||||
| Atlantic Coast | NC State | 20 | 8 | 0.71 | 1 | Late addition… they could squeak in and their location doesn't hurt their chances. | |||
| Atlantic Coast | Georgia Tech | 18 | 10 | 0.64 | 1 | If they finish 4th overall, count them in. | |||
| Atlantic Coast | Clemson | 18 | 10 | 0.64 | 1 | Would mean 5-teams from ACC… in my opinion, not gonna happen. | |||
| Atlantic Sun | Florida Gulf Coast | 22 | 9 | 0.71 | 1 | Atlantic Sun will see one team. Lipscomb should challenge. Conference tournament 11/15-17 | |||
| Big 12 | Texas | 21 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | Hook 'em | |||
| Big 12 | Kansas State | 21 | 5 | 0.81 | 1 | I think they are PROBABLY a sure thing, but still have a lot of teams to go through | |||
| Big 12 | Kansas | 21 | 6 | 0.78 | 1 | Great year for Kansas in 2012. Nice work. | |||
| Big 12 | Iowa State | 16 | 7 | 0.70 | 1 | ||||
| Big 12 | Oklahoma | 19 | 9 | 0.68 | 1 | I think they are PROBABLY a sure thing, but still have a lot of teams to go through | |||
| Big East | Louisville | 25 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | Conference Tournament is 11/16-18 (Louisville looks good this year, they are in win or lose) | |||
| Big East | Marquette | 24 | 5 | 0.83 | 1 | I wonder if the Skyfall spirit will bode well for Bond? | |||
| Big East | Notre Dame | 20 | 7 | 0.74 | 1 | Notre Dame has had a solid year, but some bad losses and sitting 3rd in Conference may lead to 3-Big East teams in tourney… would be geographically convenient… | |||
| Big Sky | Idaho State | 22 | 5 | 0.82 | 1 | Huh! Idaho State in the lead of the Big Sky and I didn't realize it until today. Good for them. Conference Tournament 11/23-24 | |||
| Big South | Liberty | 22 | 7 | 0.76 | 1 | Big South will see one, and only one team | |||
| Big Ten | Penn State | 25 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | Shh… don't wanna hear it Nit fans. | |||
| Big Ten | Nebraska | 20 | 5 | 0.80 | 1 | Nebraska is in. Duh. | |||
| Big Ten | Michigan State | 21 | 7 | 0.75 | 1 | These Michiganders have been fun to watch this year. | |||
| Big Ten | Minnesota | 20 | 7 | 0.74 | 1 | ||||
| Big Ten | Ohio State | 20 | 8 | 0.71 | 1 | tOSU back in da house | |||
| Big Ten | Purdue | 19 | 8 | 0.70 | 1 | ||||
| Big Ten | Michigan | 21 | 9 | 0.70 | 1 | These Michiganders have been fun to watch this year. | |||
| Big Ten | Illinois | 11 | 15 | 0.42 | 1 | Must win a boat-load… can they? Eh, doesn't look like it. | |||
| Big West | Hawaii | 22 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | Clinched and dominating Big West worse than the WAC was dominated. | |||
| Big West | Cal State Northridge | 18 | 9 | 0.67 | 1 | Maybe | |||
| Big West | Long Beach State | 15 | 11 | 0.58 | 1 | Maybe | |||
| Colonial Athletic Association | Towson | 25 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | One team from CAA. Conference 11/16-19 | |||
| Conference USA | Tulsa | 21 | 9 | 0.70 | 1 | Conference USA tournament starts 11/16-18. Tulsa is probably in regardless of result. An upset could knock a bigger conference (likely Big 12) team out. | |||
| Horizon League | Cleveland State | 21 | 6 | 0.78 | 1 | Cleveland State riding a 10-match win streak. Conference tourney decides winner 11/16-18 | |||
| Ivy League | Yale | 18 | 5 | 0.78 | 1 | Smart of them to dominate the conference and get the auto-bid in first. | |||
| Metro Atlantic Athletic | Fairfield | 20 | 8 | 0.71 | 1 | Conference's single bid to be decided 11/17-18 | |||
| Mid-American | Ohio | 19 | 9 | 0.68 | 1 | OH- yeah, never mind. Mid-American tournament is this weekend. 11/16-18 | |||
| Mid-Eastern Athletic | Florida A&M | 12 | 10 | 0.55 | FAMU tries to steal this conference's only bid 11/16-18 | ||||
| Missouri Valley | Creighton | 24 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | 1 | Good year for Creighton… I think they are in. A second team? Maybe…. Depends on the super-competitive MVC tourney 11/22-24. | ||
| Missouri Valley | Northern Iowa | 23 | 8 | 0.74 | 1 | Solid year, but not impressive. Maybe. | |||
| Missouri Valley | Wichita State | 19 | 7 | 0.73 | 1 | Solid year, but not impressive. Maybe. | |||
| Mountain West | San Diego State | 20 | 7 | 0.74 | 1 | What a great year for the Aztecs. | |||
| Mountain West | Colorado State | 17 | 7 | 0.71 | 1 | An NCAA tourney without Rams would be a travesty. | |||
| Mountain West | UNLV | 16 | 10 | 0.62 | 1 | Bubble, but I don't see it happening. | |||
| Ohio Valley | Morehead State | 24 | 6 | 0.80 | 1 | Morehead State… or some other Ohio Valley team decided 11/15-19 | |||
| Pac-12 | Stanford | 24 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | Stanford. Wow… what a year for them. Good for them. | |||
| Pac-12 | Oregon | 22 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | Crazy to see them in second place right now in conference. | |||
| Pac-12 | USC | 24 | 4 | 0.86 | 1 | ||||
| Pac-12 | Washington | 20 | 5 | 0.80 | 1 | ||||
| Pac-12 | UCLA | 20 | 5 | 0.80 | 1 | ||||
| Pac-12 | Arizona State | 17 | 12 | 0.59 | 1 | ||||
| Pac-12 | California | 14 | 12 | 0.54 | 1 | Sure thing if they end at .500 overall… | |||
| Pac-12 | Arizona | 14 | 13 | 0.52 | 1 | Like any Pac-12 team, if they are eligible this year, they are in. | |||
| Patriot | Colgate | 15 | 13 | 0.54 | 1 | Get the toothbrushes out… unless they don't win the tourney on 11/17-18 | |||
| Southeastern | Florida | 21 | 4 | 0.84 | 1 | My bet is the FSU gets to host, though. | |||
| Southeastern | Texas A&M | 21 | 5 | 0.81 | 1 | So weird not to see them in Big 12 still. | |||
| Southeastern | Tennessee | 19 | 6 | 0.76 | 1 | Rocky top? | |||
| Southeastern | Arkansas | 19 | 8 | 0.70 | 1 | Probably. | |||
| Southeastern | Missouri | 18 | 9 | 0.67 | 1 | Maybe… I still can't figure out these conferences. | |||
| Southeastern | Kentucky | 17 | 10 | 0.63 | 1 | Recent losses dropped them to bubble status | |||
| Southern | Georgia Southern | 24 | 6 | 0.80 | 1 | My bet is on College of Charleston to win the tourney on 11/17-19 | |||
| Southland | Central Arkansas | 27 | 4 | 0.87 | 1 | Throw some darts. Southland is decided 11/17-18. Just one team. | |||
| Southwestern Athletic | Jackson State | 20 | 11 | 0.65 | 1 | SWAC gets one. | |||
| Sun Belt | Western Kentucky | 29 | 3 | 0.91 | 1 | If Western Kentucky doesn't secure their auto-bid, they should be in trouble. | |||
| The Summit League | IUPUI | 21 | 9 | 0.70 | 1 | Summit league will have one peaked team and the rest will fall trying to get there 11/16-17 | |||
| West Coast | BYU | 24 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | I think the West Coast conference will send 4-teams this year (all Pac-12 fodder though, too bad)… it would be a travesty if they don't. | |||
| West Coast | San Diego | 20 | 5 | 0.80 | 1 | ||||
| West Coast | Santa Clara | 20 | 9 | 0.69 | 1 | ||||
| West Coast | Pepperdine | 18 | 10 | 0.64 | 1 | My first omission Pepperdine is tied with LMU for 5th in conference. The strength of the WCC isn't well known this year again, because they don't play eastern teams often. | |||
| West Coast | Saint Marys | 15 | 10 | 0.60 | 1 | ||||
| Western Athletic | Utah State | 19 | 8 | 0.70 | 1 | WAC looks like a one-team conference this year… I have my favorites, but they do better as underdogs. |
correction will need to wait until tomorrow, sorry.
