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Post by Ye Olde Dawg on Oct 18, 2006 18:43:52 GMT -5
www.pac-10.org/sports/w-volley/spec-rel/101806aac.htmlThis week Cathy tells us "Six things that are true about Pac-10 volleyball". Read the article for details, but in short: - Stanford is in the best position to win the Pac-10 championship.
- California is the best sixth place team in the nation.
- Oregon will make the NCAA tournament.
- No team from Arizona will make the NCAA tournament.
- The Pac-10 will send at least two teams to the Final Four.
- Pac-10 volleyball is the best in the country.
Re: Stanford: duh. Re: 6th place. If Cal beats Oregon they'll be the best 5th place team. I believe Pac-10 would still have the best 6th place team in Oregon, but the polls mostly aren't aware of them yet. Cathy Nelson does beat the drum for the Pac-10 a bit, but this year how's anybody going to argue she's wrong? I leave the floor open for discussion. 
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Post by BearClause on Oct 18, 2006 18:49:30 GMT -5
So how come she's not still coaching at Oregon?
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Post by BearClause on Oct 18, 2006 18:52:04 GMT -5
BTW - she seems to think that Long Beach State is in the WAC.  |
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Post by reiker21 on Oct 18, 2006 20:18:15 GMT -5
How is it that the Arizona Teams are already counted out. The 2nd half of the season is just starting. Both teams could still possibility beat Oregon Teams & WSU and would end up with the Arizona Teams having the same record for the season as Oregon.
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Post by reiker21 on Oct 18, 2006 20:22:17 GMT -5
A correction to Kathy's notes. Arizona does have one win against Oregon State. Arizona State has two wins. They swept both Arizona & Oregon State.
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Post by BearClause on Oct 18, 2006 20:35:01 GMT -5
How is it that the Arizona Teams are already counted out. The 2nd half of the season is just starting. Both teams could still possibility beat Oregon Teams & WSU and would end up with the Arizona Teams having the same record for the season as Oregon. Those are just her personal predictions. I guess the difference is that Arizona and Arizona State's nonconference record are poor. Even if they're tied with Oregon in the Pac-10, it doesn't mean anything if they have a losing overall record. |
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Post by reiker21 on Oct 18, 2006 21:41:48 GMT -5
What about the level of competition in nonconference. Oregon did not play any tough teams. Obviously that must not make a difference
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Post by BearClause on Oct 18, 2006 21:55:23 GMT -5
What about the level of competition in nonconference. Oregon did not play any tough teams. Obviously that must not make a difference Let's imagine Oregon, Arizona, and Arizona State all finish the rest of the Pac-10 schedule 4-7 each. That would make Oregon 18-10, Arizona 14-16, and Arizona State 14-15. Frankly - Oregon's nonconference schedule wouldn't even matter all that much if they can finish 7-11 in the Pac-10. The most important thing for them is to finish with an overall winning record to be eligible for NCAA Tournament consideration. |
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Post by 2c on Oct 19, 2006 4:09:03 GMT -5
Still holding out hope for a Pac10-less FinalFour. I give it a 5% chance of happening.
UNL takes out USC (and Cal)
UT takes out Stanford
UF takes out UCLA
PSU takes out UW (and Oregon)
Could happen? No? Fine, whatever.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Oct 19, 2006 7:09:50 GMT -5
What about the level of competition in nonconference. Oregon did not play any tough teams. And Cal did? |
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Post by reiker21 on Oct 19, 2006 13:38:01 GMT -5
So in other words it was to Oregon's advantage to play weaker teams during non-conference play early in the season. If Oregon, ASU, Arizona all finish with the same record during the season, it DID work to Oregon advantage to play weaker teams that they knew they would more than likely beat. Taking top teams to 5 games during season, vs. getting swept in 3??
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Oct 19, 2006 14:28:48 GMT -5
That, and the fact that are better than the other teams in the list.
If Oregon, Arizona St, and Arizona all go 4 - 7 for the rest of the season, that means that their conference records would be 8 - 10, 6 - 12, and 5 - 11. With Arizona's preconference record, Oregon would be 19 - 13, and still a shoo-in for the NCAA tournament. With Arizona St's preconference record, the would be 16 - 13, and still be eligible (and likely in) the NCAA tournament.
Moreover, given the fact that Oregon would have demonstrated itself over the course of the conference season to be better than either Arizona or Arizona St, it is reasonable to think they would have done just as well or better against the same teams in those preconference schedules.
Lastly, where in the world does anyone see 4 wins in the final 11 matches for Arizona or Arizona St? Would take some mighty upsets, along the way.
So let's summarize: if, for the rest of the season, Oregon plays more or less as expected, whereas Arizona St and Arizona pull off some big upsets (notice that even if Arizona beats Oregon, that means that Oregon has to pull an upset in order to go 4 - 7), then Arizona and Arizona St will still be a couple games behind Oregon in the Pac Ten standings.
In what way is Oregon taking advantage of a weaker schedule?
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Post by BearClause on Oct 19, 2006 14:46:22 GMT -5
Moreover, given the fact that Oregon would have demonstrated itself over the course of the conference season to be better than either Arizona or Arizona St, it is reasonable to think they would have done just as well or better against the same teams in those preconference schedules. I'll just say that I was highly skeptical about Oregon's record this season because they would go like 11-1 nonconference almost every year beating up on patsies, followed by a 2-16 Pac-10 season. I think they've turned it around to some degree, but I don't think they have the players yet to seriously challenge for a top 10 ranking. |
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Oct 19, 2006 15:15:19 GMT -5
Of course, no one is claiming they SHOULD be challenging for a top ten ranking, so I'm not sure what the relevance is.
Second, your recollection of their past is distorted. Yes, they have been 10 - 1 and 8 - 2 in the last two season's non-conference schedules, but to say they have been "beating up on patsies" is not all that accurate. They have been _beating_ patsies, that is for sure. But they haven't been beating them up by any means. Most of those wins were 4 game matches, and some 5 game wins. Nominally, not that bad, but 4 game wins against teams in the 150 - 250 range isn't that impressive. This year, they have blown out those level of team (still playing 4 against the <150 teams, though) Similarly, those matches they lost in the past seasons were against not great teams, whereas this year, they didn't drop those matches, and even pulled a very good win against LBSU. They never had anything like that in the past.
The differences between the starts of the last three seasons are reflected nicely in Pablo. Take a look at the Sept 20ish rankings for the last three years. In 2004, they were 66, but by Oct 17 or so, they had dropped to 101 (finished the season at 126). In 2K5, they were 43, dropping to 86 in four weeks, finishing at 98. This season, in the Sep 20 ranking, they were 17, and have only dropped to 18 since then.
This is clearly not the same Oregon team as in the past. Their non-conference performance was majorly better, getting them into the top 20, instead of the top 50. Moreover, they have maintained that ranking against the tough Pac Ten schedule. This is nothing like previous years.
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Post by ugopher on Oct 19, 2006 15:32:04 GMT -5
Still holding out hope for a Pac10-less FinalFour. I give it a 5% chance of happening. UNL takes out USC (and Cal) UT takes out Stanford UF takes out UCLA PSU takes out UW (and Oregon) Could happen? No? Fine, whatever. I like the above scenario with the exception of MN taking out UCLA. I could live with that! (And maybe even be able to get tickets to the FF!) |
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