NCAA tournament - who's in? who's out?

[blastingsand]

Anyone want to point out some teams to watch out for, as there is only a month left to play? Like teams on the verge of breaking through, and teams that are falling and about to be left out?

[rudepa]

We all know the powerhouses at this point, so.......

OSU= bubble team
Oregon=loads of potential
OU= bubble team

lots of O's going on there.......

[baldyballer]

I think the Big 12 has several bubble teams down to their number 7 spot! should be a great final month!

[BearClause]

In the Pac-10, I see the 6 teams making the NCAA Tournament and 3 definitely missing it. I just can't see Arizona pulling a miracle. Washington State currently has a winning record, but I don't see them finishing with enough wins in conference. Oregon State is winless in conference. I don't think Arizona State has the 4-3 finish in them to finish 15-14 overall (and 7-11 in the Pac-10), but they could surpise us.

How many teams does the Big 12 (aka Big 11) typically send to the NCAA Tournament? Has a Big 12 team ever made the NCAA Tournament with a losing conference record?

[blastingsand]

ruder said:

We all know the powerhouses at this point, so.......

OSU= bubble team
Oregon=loads of potential
OU= bubble team

lots of O's going on there.......

Are those the Oklahomas or the Ohios?

[bearwatch]

Yea, Kansas was 8-12 last year and made it (But shouldn't have). The Big 12 had 7 make the tournament last year. Typically 10 wins get you in, maybe 9.

[simplycurious]

I believe most of these things were already mentioned on another thread, but K-St (Big 12) and Notre Dame (Big East) are currently on the outside looking in - with little to no chance of making it (provided they don't win their conference tournament, which probably isn't going to happen). Also, the ACC is probably only going to get one team into the tournament this year. Arizona was already mentioned by BearClause, so I didn't feel the need to point them out again. Those are the only ones that immediately jump to mind (for now).

[texas22]

I hope it is Ohio because the Sooners will be in the tourney

[dontknowjack]

Historically some teams from the Big Ten and Big XII have gotten in with 8-12 and 9-11 records, mainly b/c their RPI is so high due to the strength of the conference and (hopefully) some significant wins in conference, as well as significant wins in the preconference.

Big XII race will be interesting, as well as the Big Ten. Looks like PSU, Minn, Wisc, and Purdue are locks. Then there is a battle for the next 3 slots that will likley get in. Looks like Ohio State will squeak it out, then Mich State and Northwestern seem to be on their way to the magical 10-10 record that would undoubtedly get them in. Looks like Illinois shot themselves in the foot...again, and Michigan's 13-0 preconference won't help them when they end up 7-13 (at best) in conference. Or, maybe it will, and we'll have another 8 go to the dance from the Big Ten...

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Somewhere, there has to be 64 teams that make the tournament. Who should go in? #7 in the Big Ten/Big 12 or #3 in the MAC? Historically, that has leaned toward the big conferences, mainly because those teams have good wins, whereas the mid-major teams don't

This year, there are a lot of teams that seem to no have good wins. Ohio St has a win over Wisconsin, so I expect them with no problem. But now, what about the ACC? More than one team? Who is Duke's good win? Big East? No good wins there. MVC? Nope

I think the SEC might have get some love this year. At least South Carolina has a win over Florida. Don't rule them out if they can stay above water.

At some point, we have got to laying out the possibilities and try to find those 33 at larges

[Ye Olde Dawg]

From the Pac-10, see what BearClause said. The top 6 teams are in, and Arizona and Oregon State aren't in the running.

We might see Washington State or Arizona State make the tournament, but not both. Part of that is because I think Washington State would have to beat Arizona State -- or steal a win at Cal or Oregon -- to be selected. They can afford 4 losses and still have a winning overall record, but they're playing 4 ranked teams.

IMHO Arizona State is in a tougher position. They have to go 4-3 over the rest of the season. They've beaten three of the opponents they'll face, but that fourth win will be hard to come by.

With all the talk about how well the top of the Pac-10 is playing this year, ironically they may send only 6 teams to the tournament.

[Deleted]

What would Hawai'i have to do to miss the tournament? Lose the rest + multiple felonies?

I know this won't happen, but it's a good hypothetical.

[BearClause]

sankyu said:

From the Pac-10, see what BearClause said. The top 6 teams are in, and Arizona and Oregon State aren't in the running.

We might see Washington State or Arizona State make the tournament, but not both. Part of that is because I think Washington State would have to beat Arizona State -- or steal a win at Cal or Oregon -- to be selected. They can afford 4 losses and still have a winning overall record, but they're playing 4 ranked teams.

IMHO Arizona State is in a tougher position. They have to go 4-3 over the rest of the season. They've beaten three of the opponents they'll face, but that fourth win will be hard to come by.

With all the talk about how well the top of the Pac-10 is playing this year, ironically they may send only 6 teams to the tournament.

I think the digger problem with Washington State is that they're 2-9 in the Pac-10. I believe historically 7-11 in the Pac-10 was the lowest to get in. I see their schedule, and I really don't see how they're going to win 5. Their non-conference schedule was completely lower-tier teams. I could see them winning 4 (maybe), but is 6-12 in the Pac-10 enough?

[knowitall]

At this time, and in conference order I have these 64

Albany
Dayton
Duke
Fl. State
East Tennessee
Colorado
Iowa State
Mizzou
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas
St.Johns
Louisville
Sac State
Winthrop
Ohio State
Penn St
Purdue
Wisconsin
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Cal Poly
LBSU
UCSB
Hofstra
Marshall-Tulsa-Memphis
Wisc-Milwaukee
Cornell-Yale
Fairfield
Ohio
Oral Roberts
Florida A&M
N.Iowa
Wichita St-Creighton
Missouri State
BYU
Colorado St
Utah
Long Island
Jacksonville State
Cal
Oregon
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
American
Alabama
Arkansas
Florida
Kentucky
LSU
Tennessee
Coll of Charleston
Stephen F Austin
Alabama A&M
W. Kentucky-Middle Tennessee
LMU
San Diego
Santa Clara
Hawaii
N. Mexico State
And one spot for an afore mentioned team that does not win there conference

[Greenie]

Based on automatic bids and current RKPI, here's my best quess of who's in, with 4 more slots available.... this assumes that the team with the best RKPI at this point will get the automatic bid, which will not always happen due to the conference tournaments and lots of VB left to play.

RKPI	School	Region	Conference
1	Nebraska	Central	Big 12
2	UCLA	Pacific	Pac-10
3	Penn State	Mideast	Big Ten
4	Minnesota	Mideast	Big Ten
5	USC	Pacific	Pac-10
6	Stanford	Pacific	Pac-10
7	Texas	Central	Big 12
8	Wisconsin	Mideast	Big Ten
9	Florida	South	Southeastern
10	Washington	Pacific	Pac-10
11	Purdue	Mideast	Big Ten
12	LSU	South	Southeastern
13	San Diego	Pacific	West Coast
14	California	Pacific	Pac-10
15	Utah	West	Mountain West
16	Cal Poly	West	Big West
17	Hawaii	West	Western Athletic
18	Oklahoma	Central	Big 12
19	Colorado	Central	Big 12
20	St. Johns	Northeast	Big East
21	Illinois	Mideast	Big Ten
22	BYU	West	Mountain West
23	Oregon	Pacific	Pac-10
24	Louisville	Northeast	Big East
25	Michigan	Mideast	Big Ten
26	New Mexico State	West	Western Athletic
27	Tennessee	South	Southeastern
28	Arkansas	South	Southeastern
29	Santa Clara	Pacific	West Coast
30	Ohio State	Mideast	Big Ten
31	Ohio	Mideast	Mid-American
33	Missouri	Central	Big 12
34	Duke	East	Atlantic Coast
35	Northern Iowa	Central	Missouri Valley
36	Pepperdine	Pacific	West Coast
37	Long Beach State	West	Big West
38	Colorado State	West	Mountain West
39	Northwestern	Mideast	Big Ten
40	Hofstra	East	Colonial Athletic
41	Dayton	Northeast	Atlantic 10
42	Michigan State	Mideast	Big Ten
43	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	Midwest	Horizon League
45	Iowa State	Central	Big 12
46	Sacramento State	Pacific	Big Sky
51	Cincinnati	Northeast	Big East
55	Florida International	South	Sun Belt
57	Stephen F. Austin	Central	Southland
63	Winthrop	East	Big South
67	Princeton	Northeast	Ivy League
76	Memphis	Midwest	Conference USA
77	East Tennessee State	South	Atlantic Sun
82	Fairfield	Mideast	Metro Atlantic
84	College of Charleston	South	Southern
87	Jacksonville State	Midwest	Ohio Valley
90	Oral Roberts	Central	Mid-Continent
94	Florida A&M	East	Mid-Eastern
95	American	Northeast	Patriot
131	Albany	Northeast	America East
138	Long Island	Mideast	Northeast
237	Prairie View A&M	Midwest	SW Athletic