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Post by bucky415 on Nov 2, 2006 13:50:43 GMT -5
Northwestern has some work to do as well. They are 12-10 and 6-7 in the Big Ten after beating Illinois, a win they really needed. Unfortunately for them, they have road matches at Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Ohio State. They have Purdue and IU at home, and I forget where they play Iowa. If they don't pull an upset, that is 2-5 and a losing record. Given that schedule, I am not expecting a late run from them like last year. They might be able to get an upset and do just enough to get in, but it won't be on a roll like last year.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 2, 2006 16:11:19 GMT -5
Unfortunately, I fear that Northwestern's upset is going to be against Purdue. I sure hope not, but I hate that team. Just the kind of thing that they'd do, and I'm pretty sure they only do it to pitt me off.
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Post by dontknowjack on Nov 2, 2006 17:17:38 GMT -5
In Northwestern's recent NCAA years they have had a better 2nd half and pulled off signifcant wins (Wisconsin & PSU in '02, Minnesota & Michigan State in '03, Minnesota and Purdue in '05) to get the bid at 10-10, 9-11, and 10-10.
My guess is they can beat Iowa at Iowa, beat Purdue and Indy at home, and grab Ohio State at OSU. That would put them at 10-10, and lock them in. Also, they do very well at Minnesota, but in recent years at Wisc and PSU have been 0-3 trips. At 9-11, they are at 15-14, but their strength of schedule and RPI could work for them.
Illinois is done. Their remaining schedule is too tough, and they would need to beat Iowa, Purdue, Indy, then Ohio State, Minnesota, and either PSU or Wisconsin -- all away -- to get to 10-10. Not happening.
Michigan State looks like a lock, though I am guessing they are 6-8 after this weekend, and need to get 4 more, which is feasible. Amazing that a left-side only team can pull it off, but at Iowa, at Indy, and OSU at home give them at least 9-11 and a good shot due to RPI and overall record.
Michigan, who I think has been overrated all year, can probably only get 3 more: at Indy (redemption match), at Iowa (where they have lost in recent seasons), and Ohio State at home. Otherwise, miraculous performances to win in the stretch. Those 3 put them at 7-13, and if they got a bid over a 10-10 team, then the selection committee can be deemed worthless.
However, the committee does look at that 2nd half of the year, so teams that pad their pre-conference then tank (a la ASU and Wash State) in conference don't get rewarded.
Fun weeks ahead!
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 2, 2006 17:47:08 GMT -5
Ok, amateur hour is over, but I appreciate your inputs. 31-conferences get automatic entry. 33-at-large teams additionally. I've broken them down by conference here into three groups: Auto entry (with my guesses, if a team is there), guaranteed in teams, and bubble teams. I've never been wrong with the guaranteed "in" teams. The bubble teams are the ones to look at. Yes, I added Idaho because I did the work and I can. Conferences with automatic bids (31) | Automatic Bid Teams | Open Bids from NCAA Tourney | Bubble Teams to win remaining Open Bids | America East* | America East Champ | | | Atlantic 10 | Atlantic 10 Champ | | | Atlantic Coast | ACC Champs | | Duke, Clemson | Atlantic Sun* | Atlantic Sun Champ | | | Big 12 | Nebraska | Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri | Iowa State, Colorado | Big East | St. John's | Louisville | Notre Dame | Big Sky* | Big Sky Champ | | | Big South* | Big South Champ | | | Big Ten | Penn State | Minnesota, Wisconsin, Purdue | Ohio State, Michigan State, Northwestern?, | Big West | Cal Poly | | LBSU, CSUN, UCSB | Colonial Athletic Association* | CAA Champ | | | Conference USA* | Conference USA Champ | | | Horizon League* | Horizon League Champ | | | Ivy League* | Ivey League Champ | | | Metro Atlantic Athletic* | MAAC Champ | | | Mid-American | Ohio | | Bowling Green? | Mid-Continent* | Mid-Continent Champ | | | Mid-Eastern Athletic* | Florida A&M | | | Missouri Valley | MVC Champ | | Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State | Mountain West | Utah | BYU, Colorado State | UNLV? | Northeast* | Northeast Champ | | | Ohio Valley* | Ohio Valley Champ | | | Pac-10 | Pac-10 Champ (Stanford) | Washington, USC, California, UCLA, Oregon | | Patriot* | Patriot League Champ | | | Southeastern | Florida | LSU, Tennessee, Alabama | Arkansas?, Kentucky?, South Carolina?? | Southern* | Southern Champ | | | Southland* | Southland Champ | | | Southwestern Athletic* | SWAC Champ | | | Sun Belt* | Sun Belt Champ | | Almost a shame because will be a great tournament, but just one team. | West Coast | San Diego | Pepperdine?, Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount | Saint Marys?, San Francisco?? | Western Athletic | Hawaii or New Mexico State | Hawaii or New Mexico State | Nevada, Idaho?? (would have to finish 8-1 to be eligible) | | *Indicates only 1 bid will be in tournament from this conference. |
Pepperdine has a "?" because they have to finish >.500 to be eligible, I think they will.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 2, 2006 17:49:42 GMT -5
31 Automatic Entries + 21 "guaranteed" entries = 52 teams, which leaves
12 spots which 23 teams I have listed will vye for.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 2, 2006 18:03:36 GMT -5
31 Automatic Entries + 21 "guaranteed" entries = 52 teams, which leaves 12 spots which 23 teams I have listed will vye for. I counted 24, but two of those will likely end up as conference champs (ACC, MVC), so that leaves 22 vying for 12.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 2, 2006 18:12:47 GMT -5
Yeah... Idaho, I left out, since they really probably won't make it
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Post by OverAndUnder on Nov 2, 2006 18:18:26 GMT -5
Ok, amateur hour is over, but I appreciate your inputs. 31-conferences get automatic entry. 33-at-large teams additionally. I've broken them down by conference here into three groups: Auto entry (with my guesses, if a team is there), guaranteed in teams, and bubble teams. I've never been wrong with the guaranteed "in" teams. The bubble teams are the ones to look at. Yes, I added Idaho because I did the work and I can. Pac-10 | Pac-10 Champ | Washington, USC, California, UCLA, Oregon | |
So you don't think Stanford will make the postseason?
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Post by BearClause on Nov 2, 2006 18:23:10 GMT -5
Ok, amateur hour is over, but I appreciate your inputs. 31-conferences get automatic entry. 33-at-large teams additionally. I've broken them down by conference here into three groups: Auto entry (with my guesses, if a team is there), guaranteed in teams, and bubble teams. I've never been wrong with the guaranteed "in" teams. The bubble teams are the ones to look at. Yes, I added Idaho because I did the work and I can. Pac-10 | Pac-10 Champ | Washington, USC, California, UCLA, Oregon | |
So you don't think Stanford will make the postseason? I think that's his Pac-10 champion.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 2, 2006 18:45:59 GMT -5
So you don't think Stanford will make the postseason? I think that's his Pac-10 champion. Yeah, oops, I thought I put that in there.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 2, 2006 20:23:14 GMT -5
I think a huge part of the bubble-team bids will be based off of conference comparisons, anyone know the relative ratings of conferences this year?
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Post by Gorf on Nov 2, 2006 22:09:21 GMT -5
The bubble teams also have to manage to have an overall record of voer 0.500 which could be a problem for some of the Big 10 bubble teams unless Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Purdue don't continue to win the majority of their matches against the bubble teams.
Northwestern for example at 12-10 overall currently needs to go 3-4 to in their final 7 matches to remain eligible. That would put them at 9-11 in conference which would still leave them on the bubble.
With remaining matches: @ Iowa @ Wisconsin @ Minnesota Purdue Indiana @ Ohio State @ Penn State
They're going to need at least one upset in order to achieve 3-4.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 2, 2006 22:10:49 GMT -5
Hence the "?" which I forgot to define for all teams, just did for Pepperdine.
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Post by BoilerUp! on Nov 2, 2006 23:19:36 GMT -5
You have "Ohio State" and "Ohio State?" so did you mean to put in a different Big Ten team? Or were you just trying to decide if you should put a question mark, or not?
Thanks for making the chart!
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 2, 2006 23:26:38 GMT -5
OOps... I think I was debating if another team would be eligible, but didn't take OSU out from the copy.
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