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Post by leadbrain on Nov 21, 2006 11:32:43 GMT -5
So, down to the last week of the season. Most conference tournaments are over with only three to play this weekend. This begs the question, which teams are on the bubble? Who needs the most help to get in? Who is a lock to get in? We all know the obvious at-larges (Big 10, Pac 10 with ASU being the exception, etc) but what about the not so obvious. These are the bubble teams I think are in:
LBSU Oregon Missouri Valley Runner-up + one Dayton Tennessee Iowa State Kentucky Alabama Notre Dame
I'm leaving Northwestern and Illinois off this list since it's doubtful they'll qualify (at 500 now with games at PSU and OSU this weekend). If ASU beats U of A this weekend they probably will make it as well.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2006 11:40:29 GMT -5
I don't think LBSU is on the bubble.
I'd add Michigan and Michigan State, ASU, Missouri?, Arkansas, Colorado State, San Francisco, Mississippi, Alabama.
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Post by Xplaya on Nov 21, 2006 11:44:14 GMT -5
add Virginia, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Pittsburg, Cincinatti
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Post by Keystonekid on Nov 21, 2006 12:01:03 GMT -5
Kentucky, LBSU, Oregon and Alabama are not on the bubble. One more ACC team at best. Pittsburgh and Cincinatti got hurt by Notre Dame;s run.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 21, 2006 12:05:22 GMT -5
add Virginia, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Pittsburg, Cincinatti Well, yeah, the committee has made some really bad decisions in the past, so you can't rule it out again.
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Post by reiker21 on Nov 21, 2006 12:20:37 GMT -5
I was under the impression Oregon was on the bubble. What has changed. If ASU beats Arizona again as earlier in the season, Oregon & ASU will have the same conference record .
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Post by leadbrain on Nov 21, 2006 12:26:57 GMT -5
don't think uva, clemson or g tech or on the bubble. acc is probably going to be a one bid conference with just duke going. the only team who can make a case is georgia tech with their late run but how can the committee justify taking someone who finished 3rd or 4th in the conference and not the teams above them?
ole miss won't go because of a weak sos, a few bad losses and it's highly doubtful 6 sec teams get in. they do have that late quality win over LSU but don't think that is going to help them enough to get a bid.
arkansas's bubble burst with losses to ole miss and miss st. this weekend. the 0-2 did not help them at all.
colorado state probably needs a strong finish in the mountain west tournament to solidify a bid but think they are more than likely in at this point. pittsburgh and cincinatti are extreme long shots for a shot.
michigan and michigan state are both in. think the big ten will get 7 bids this year (Wisconsin, Minnesota, PSU, OSU, Michigan, MSU, Purdue)
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Post by BearClause on Nov 21, 2006 12:30:32 GMT -5
I was under the impression Oregon was on the bubble. What has changed. If ASU beats Arizona again as earlier in the season, Oregon & ASU will have the same conference record . A) That's assuming that Oregon loses to both USC and UCLA. B) Even with identical 7-11 conference records, Oregon would have a better overall record and better "high profile" wins.
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Post by gobows on Nov 21, 2006 12:41:14 GMT -5
Great post 'leadbrain'. Thanks for the information.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 21, 2006 12:52:24 GMT -5
don't think uva, clemson or g tech or on the bubble. acc is probably going to be a one bid conference with just duke going. the only team who can make a case is georgia tech with their late run but how can the committee justify taking someone who finished 3rd or 4th in the conference and not the teams above them? The committee would just explain it in terms of the criteria they have to use, which do not include conference ranking. That being said, I don't think GA Tech is a good candidate regardless. I think the Big Ten _could_ get 8, but it would require some big upsets. For example, I think NW will get in if they are eligible, but that is where it gets tough, because in order to be eligible, they will have to beat either OSU or PSU this weekend. If they can pull off on upset, they are in (their non-conference schedule was decent, with losses to Stanford and Hawaii). I have argued elsewhere that Illinois could get in, but they need to win 2 this weekend. Others have suggested that 1 is sufficient, but even if Wichita St were to win the MVC, thereby helping Illinois, I think they need more good wins. One and they are bubbly. Two and they are in. Again, pretty long shots, but possible.
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Post by leadbrain on Nov 21, 2006 13:18:12 GMT -5
p-dub, said in my original post that not counting either Illinois or Norhtwestern in because they would have to take a match from either PSU or OSU this weekend and that is highly doubtful. they're best shot was last weekend when they were home against purdue and indiana. i will agree that if they find a way to win one of those games this weekend, both of them are likely in but don't think they can beat either PSU or OSU on the road.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 21, 2006 13:25:07 GMT -5
That's why I said it would require big upsets.
Note that they both beat OSU earlier this year at home, but that was before Meyer moved to the middle, no?
But then I start wondering, suppose they both did the upsets I think they need. NW wins one, and Illinois wins two. Could the Big Ten get 9?
I think it is worth talking about NW and Illinois because they could actually win themselves into an at-large berth. That isn't true for a lot of the teams that have been mentioned. Outside of conference tournaments, not a lot of teams can get in win or lose.
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Post by reiker21 on Nov 21, 2006 13:32:09 GMT -5
I was under the impression Oregon was on the bubble. What has changed. If ASU beats Arizona again as earlier in the season, Oregon & ASU will have the same conference record . A) That's assuming that Oregon loses to both USC and UCLA. B) Even with identical 7-11 conference records, Oregon would have a better overall record and better "high profile" wins.
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Post by reiker21 on Nov 21, 2006 13:36:11 GMT -5
Assuming that Oregon & ASU do have the same conference wins, ASU played at a higher level in pre-season. Oregon did have an easy pre-season, while ASU faced higher ranked teams and won some good matches. It appears that if you are a bubble team in the Pac-10 the answer would be to play teams that you know you can win in pre-season.
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Post by reiker21 on Nov 21, 2006 13:38:02 GMT -5
I was under the impression Oregon was on the bubble. What has changed. If ASU beats Arizona again as earlier in the season, Oregon & ASU will have the same conference record . A) That's assuming that Oregon loses to both USC and UCLA. B) Even with identical 7-11 conference records, Oregon would have a better overall record and better "high profile" wins. Only one..... Cal
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