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Post by Ye Olde Dawg on Sept 18, 2007 3:20:44 GMT -5
As we begin conference play, I notice Pablo still has some teams ranked surprisingly high or low. I'm guessing this isn't unusual; Pablo doesn't yet have enough data to be entirely calibrated (even though it's doing better than most of us at pick-the-winners). But I remember last year when Pablo picked Oregon to beat USC.
So what matches stand out like that? Matches that will either make Pablo look brilliant or make Pablo make some serious adjustments to its rankings? Just looking through RichKern, I found Pablo predicts:
Michigan State at (AVCA)#23 Ohio State. OK, that's not a predicted upset; Pablo ranks them dead even. We'll find out if they are.
Northwestern at #23 Ohio State. Pablo says Northwestern wins this. I kid you not.
#13 Hawaii at #25 NMSU. Pablo ranks them the other way around: NMSU at #20 and Hawaii at #36, plus Hawaii will be on the road. If that really happens it would be big news -- like Oregon over USC would have been.
Anyone see any other outrageous Pablo predictions? Or predictions by some other rankings?
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Post by pedro el leon on Sept 18, 2007 3:46:09 GMT -5
wow. Washington is ranked number 2 in Pablo?! That's surprising...
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Post by roy on Sept 18, 2007 4:05:05 GMT -5
I had noticed that as well and thought it was funny. By virtue of rank, Hawaii is favored. However, according to Pablo, NMSU is favored. Someone is going to be wrong. In an odd way, its kind of funny. But that is how Pablo is based. NMSU has been consistent while the Wahine have been very streaky. Hawaii has better wins but bad losses as well.
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Post by itsallrelative on Sept 18, 2007 7:42:38 GMT -5
sorta related.....Hey, Pdub, thanks for the D2 & D3 rankings!
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Sept 18, 2007 7:50:29 GMT -5
I had noticed that as well and thought it was funny. By virtue of rank, Hawaii is favored. However, according to Pablo, NMSU is favored. Someone is going to be wrong. In an odd way, its kind of funny. But that is how Pablo is based. NMSU has been consistent while the Wahine have been very streaky. Hawaii has better wins but bad losses as well. Hawaii's rank this week confused me, however. I'm not sure why there was such a big change from last week (although I should look at absolute ratings, which I haven't). I don't always claim to understand why things happen the way they do.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Sept 18, 2007 7:54:27 GMT -5
Ohio State has been a weird case. Their week off really killed them. Shoot, last week Pablo had them at 65 even. Coming out of last weekend, I figured they would be pretty close to Purdue, given the outcomes, and sure enough, that's exactly where they are. OTOH, I don't think that is unreasonable at all.
Northwestern is still probably riding the coattails of UNLV, and as UNLV creeps up, NW's 4 game loss doesn't look so bad.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Sept 18, 2007 7:57:55 GMT -5
sorta related.....Hey, Pdub, thanks for the D2 & D3 rankings! No worries. It's worth mentioning, I worked very hard on those rankings this last week. D2, D3, and NAIA are pretty hard to get right because 1) the data are more sparse, and 2) there are a ton of interdivisional matches. In the past, I've never been able to handle the interdivisional stuff very well. I developed a procedure this year where I do it much better than I have done before, so from the #2 standpoint, they should be better. Then again, we have had some problems when it comes to #1, so the data aren't as good as they were last year. If anyone is interested, we can still use help getting D3 and NAIA matches. Let me know if you are willing to help.
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Post by cyberVBmidwest on Sept 18, 2007 9:35:01 GMT -5
Then again, we have had some problems when it comes to #1, so the data aren't as good as they were last year. If anyone is interested, we can still use help getting D3 and NAIA matches. Let me know if you are willing to help. Speaking from experience (on the men's side) the data collection below the DI level is tough and there are a lot more teams on the women's side. p-dub helps me out some during the men's season but if a team SID, coach or volunteer doesn't supply the scores, going to individual websites of each school is the only way. To make matters tougher, not all school websites have the resources to post their match scores on a timely basis. Volunteer!
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Post by UCSB Fan on Sept 18, 2007 9:46:33 GMT -5
Where are the rankings available to view?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2007 9:55:05 GMT -5
Kern site.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Sept 18, 2007 10:46:33 GMT -5
Speaking from experience (on the men's side) the data collection below the DI level is tough and there are a lot more teams on the women's side. p-dub helps me out some during the men's season but if a team SID, coach or volunteer doesn't supply the scores, going to individual websites of each school is the only way. I find conference websites to be the most helpful, if they have the data. Sometimes they do have the data, but it is hard to come by. The NCAC for example has a lot of data, but no convenient way to organize it, so it is a major hassle. Since I am most interested in D3, that's where I spend a lot of my time. The best data for D3 is for the top teams (top 50 or so), but also for the very bottom teams (I spend a lot of time trying to make sure the teams at the bottom deserve to be there; otoh, those are the hardest scores to find). Teams in the middle get far less attention.
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Post by mango on Sept 18, 2007 11:05:33 GMT -5
Predictions about OSU versus the lower ranked big 10 teams is fascinating. 2006 OSU split with NWU, so it is possible the wildcats might pull off the upset, although if the team's ranking is riding the coattails of 2007 UNVL match, what do you call riding all the other creampuff teams they played in the preseason ?
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Post by chipNdink on Sept 18, 2007 12:13:41 GMT -5
wow. Washington is ranked number 2 in Pablo?! That's surprising... Yes, I find that surprising as well. Guess it speaks for solid, consistent play, while other teams have had more up-and-down type of play. Oregon will be a real test though. Can't wait!
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Post by sideoutnow on Sept 18, 2007 13:39:09 GMT -5
Why people take Pablo's ranking or for that matter give it any attention is a waste of time.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Sept 18, 2007 13:47:20 GMT -5
Probably the same reason people respond to threads about topics that they think are wastes of time...
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