Baylor v. Kansas Thriller

[mauricciobal]

After a delayed of an hour, the Bears pull the upset at KU.
Volleyball Box Score
Baylor vs Kansas (Oct 17, 2007 at Lawrence, Kan.)



Baylor | ATTACK |SET| SERVE |SRV|DEF| BLOCK |GEN
## Name GP| K E TA PCT| A| SA SE| RE|DIG|BS BA BE|BHE|POINTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 Byrd, Ashley........ 4| 2 4 9 -.222| 1| 0 0| 0| 0| 0 2 0| 1| 3.0
9 Barnes, Taylor...... 5| 4 5 13 -.077| 60| 0 0| 0| 9| 0 2 0| 2| 5.0
14 Breyfogle, Anna..... 5| 14 4 32 .312| 0| 1 3| 0| 5| 0 9 0| 0| 19.5
15 Thomas, Haley....... 5| 15 4 32 .344| 1| 0 0| 1| 0| 0 4 0| 0| 17.0
18 Schramek, Kristen... 5| 0 0 0 .000| 2| 0 0| 2| 10| 0 0 0| 0| 0.0
22 Sanders, Katie...... 5| 18 7 51 .216| 1| 1 0| 2| 12| 0 5 0| 0| 21.5
4 Grace, Sarah........ 5| 1 0 1 1.000| 1| 0 0| 2| 18| 0 0 0| 0| 1.0
8 Modglin, Amanda..... 4| 7 0 12 .583| 1| 0 0| 0| 0| 0 2 0| 0| 8.0
11 Smith, Kelsey....... 5| 0 0 0 .000| 2| 1 4| 0| 3| 0 0 0| 0| 1.0
24 Christenson, Ashlie. 5| 13 7 34 .176| 0| 3 2| 0| 5| 0 2 0| 0| 17.0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Totals.............. 5| 74 31 184 .234| 69| 6 9| 7| 62| 0 26 0| 3| 93.0

TEAM ATTACK PER GAME TOTAL TEAM BLOCKS: 13.0
Game K E TA Pct Sideout Pct
1 17 6 37 .297 15-25 60% GAME SCORES 1 2 3 4 5 TEAM RECORDS
2 14 9 48 .104 13-29 44% Baylor.............. (3) 30 26 28 30 15 10-10, 3-7 Big 12
3 16 9 41 .171 16-30 53% Kansas.............. (2) 24 30 30 26 11 10-10, 3-7 Big 12
4 19 5 42 .333 17-26 65%
5 8 2 16 .375 9-12 75%

Kansas | ATTACK |SET| SERVE |SRV|DEF| BLOCK |GEN
## Name GP| K E TA PCT| A| SA SE| RE|DIG|BS BA BE|BHE|POINTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 Brown, Emily........ 5| 14 5 40 .225| 27| 1 2| 0| 14| 0 4 0| 1| 17.0
9 Uhart, Natalie...... 5| 12 4 24 .333| 0| 1 0| 0| 2| 1 5 0| 0| 16.5
12 Kaiser, Jenna....... 5| 9 10 33 -.030| 1| 0 0| 0| 3| 0 1 0| 0| 9.5
15 Garlington, Karina.. 5| 11 3 36 .222| 0| 1 1| 2| 3| 0 2 0| 0| 13.0
16 Lino, Flavia........ 5| 12 4 28 .286| 1| 0 0| 0| 3| 1 2 0| 0| 14.0
18 Noyes, Savannah..... 5| 8 8 22 .000| 0| 0 0| 0| 0| 3 4 0| 0| 13.0
1 Manda, Melissa...... 5| 0 1 3 -.333| 2| 3 0| 1| 20| 0 0 0| 0| 3.0
2 Martincich, Katie... 5| 3 0 5 .600| 31| 0 1| 0| 7| 0 0 0| 2| 3.0
3 Townsend, Melissa... 1| 0 0 0 .000| 0| 0 0| 0| 0| 0 0 0| 0| 0.0
4 Grieb, Melissa...... 5| 0 1 2 -.500| 1| 1 1| 1| 13| 0 0 0| 0| 1.0
Team................ | | | | 2| | | | 0.0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Totals.............. 5| 69 36 193 .171| 63| 7 5| 6| 65| 5 18 0| 3| 90.0

TEAM ATTACK PER GAME TOTAL TEAM BLOCKS: 14.0
Game K E TA Pct Sideout Pct
1 11 10 40 .025 14-29 48% Site: Lawrence, Kan. (Horejsi Arena)
2 14 5 42 .214 14-27 51% Date: Oct 17, 2007 Attend: 849 Time: 2:21
3 20 7 53 .245 16-28 57% Referees:
4 16 9 44 .159 17-30 56%
5 8 5 14 .214 8-14 57%

1 2 3 4 5 Total
Tie scores 7 6 2 4 0 19
Lead changes 3 4 0 1 0 8

[mauricciobal]

I hope this win get the Bears on the track to winning.

[BearClause]

mauricciobal said:

After a delayed of an hour, the Bears pull the upset at KU.

If Baylor came in at 9-10, and Kansas came in at 10-9, it doesn't seem to be much of an upset.

[mauricciobal]

on the road... off course it's an upset

[FreeBall]

With HCA factored in, Kansas had 7665 Pablo points this week and Baylor had 7535. As I read the explanation of the Pablo system at RichKern.com, this means that Kansas would be expected to win slightly more than 56% of the time, based on this week's rankings.

You are probably technically correct to classify Baylor's win as an "upset". However, at 56% the probability of a Kansas win under Pablo really wasn't much beyond tossup status.

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

It's a little bigger than that. In the Pablo points model, you work from the difference/1000 to get probability. That is the table in the FAQ. In that model, the difference of 130 corresponds to a 55.2% probability. Emprically, it comes out a little higher in the combined model, however. In matches with differences (after HCA) of 100 - 200, the favored team wins about 58% of the time. Based on the full data modeling, it comes out to be about 57.9%

Still, too close to consider it a major upset of any sort.

Real upsets start about 500 points. Here is the Pablo performance for teams separated by various ranges (percent of time the favored team wins)

0 - 200: 59.9%
200-500: 72.9%
500-700: 80.7%
700-1100: 90.2%
>1100: 98.8%
>1600: 99.4%
>2000: 100%


Now, keep in mind that these are post-hoc analysis, and going forward the performance is a little worse (knock maybe 5% off, especially toward the low end). From my perspective, the real "surprises" don't start until the probability hits 80%, or the difference hits 500 points. A 1/4 chance of winning isn't that big of a surprise to me. It's basically a pair of heads with 2 coins.

[ADIDAVB]

Two sub-par teams playing eachother.........not an upset anyway you put it, its not like one or both of these team are traditional powers of even in the hunt for any type of title and just having a down year, they have both always been pretty bad

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

lovedemspandex said:

Two sub-par teams playing eachother.........not an upset anyway you put it, its not like one or both of these team are traditional powers of even in the hunt for any type of title and just having a down year, they have both always been pretty bad

You need to gain some perspective. Bad is a relative term. Compared to the top teams in the country, KU and Baylor are pretty weak. Compared to the worst teams in D1, they are powerhouses.

There are more than 200 D1 college teams in the country who are a lot worse than either Kansas or Baylor. That doesn't sound bad to me at all.

You call Kansas and Baylor bad teams, and say that there are no upsets. However, Harvard is also a bad team. Are you suggesting that if Harvard beat Baylor, it would not be an upset? In fact, it would be a HUGE upset, on par with the biggest upsets in the country this year.

[ADIDAVB]

that would be an upset, but these are two teams on par with eachother, this was far from an upset, yeah there are different levels of programs and bad teams, but these two are right there with eachother, this wasn't an upset

[Keystonekid]

You know you are not a very good program when you refer to your wins vs KU as upsets.

[ou812]

Bad loss for KU. You have to win your home games. KU is much more athletics than Baylor, it seemed like KU lost it's "eye of the tiger."

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

lovedemspandex said:

that would be an upset, but these are two teams on par with eachother, this was far from an upset, yeah there are different levels of programs and bad teams, but these two are right there with eachother, this wasn't an upset

Which is what we had said above.

It was an upset because they were close to each other, NOT because "they are both bad teams."

[ADIDAVB]

if they are close to eachother then its not an upset, its a match that could go either way, not an upset, an upset is something that shouldn't happen

[morkfromork]

Any road win in the Big 12 is a good one. Both these teams are pablo ranked around 58. With around 320 D1 teams they are better than 80% of D1 teams so I don't think that would classify them as "bad" teams. Also, I read were Baylor was delayed because of bad weather and didn't show up to the match until 15 minutes before the match. They have CU at home next, followed by TCU, Tx Tech, Kansas and Missouri. Possible run by the Bears if they can get it together.

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

lovedemspandex said:

if they are close to eachother then its not an upset, its a match that could go either way, not an upset, an upset is something that shouldn't happen

Yes, that is what Freeball had said, and which I agreed to.