Mid Season Pac-10 Analysis/ Second Half Prediction

[ay2013]

So here is a semi detailed analysis of the Pac-10 teams (emphasis on the upper half) and their performance so far

THE SOLID TOP 2

Stanford- the cardinal return 3 All Americans at all 3 key positions and essentially add a 4th with addition of Alix Klineman. They are the most talented team in the Pac-10 and has the best shot at winning the national championship. Stanfords only loss came at home against Washington, but they got a road win against Cal, and swept the LA schools at home. The Cardinals preseason schedule (which included a win over current #2 Penn State) is nothing to laugh at and they deserve the spot as the top of the Pac-10. They have been very steady and using all of the talent the team has to offer, but there is another team looking to knock the Cardinal off the top spot

Washington- the huskies silenced all the critics of their preseason schedule by going 3-1 against the other top 10 teams in the conference. The huskies got the biggest win of the Pac-10 season on the road against Stanford, and soundly beat the LA schools at home. Washington’s only loss came on the road at Cal, but if the huskies played liked they did against Stanford, USC, and UCLA, they would have came away from Hass with a win. The huskies, with a freshmen setter, also return 3 All Americans to key spots, and essentially have a fourth in Mussie and a fantastic libero in Miyashiro. The huskies haven’t had any surprise losses and are very good in system.

These two teams are a cut above everyone else in the Pac-10 right now, and deserve to be in the top 4, along with Nebraska and Penn state, nationally. Both of these teams are in the drivers seat for the Pac-10 crown and have identical conference records of 8-1

THE MUDDY MIDDLE

USC- the Trojans came into the regular season highly ranked and highly questioned about their close matches at home to “inferior teams”. They went 1-3 against the other top 10 teams and closed off matches they were supposed to win. They have had a couple injuries to key players that will most likely impact the rest of their season. They currently have a 5-3 record

Cal- the bears came into the season slightly overlooked, but they have the offensive power to make any match tough. All American Pressy started the season slow, but has since picked up her game. Add that to the cannon arm of Cutura, the impressive freshman setting of Carli Lloyd, and solid play of middle Orchard, and this Cal team is very dangerous. Their best win came at home over Washington, but that was after suffering home losses to Stanford, USC, and UCLA. Scheduling was Cal’s worse nightmare this season, but this team will be very dangerous come tournament time. They currently have a 5-3 record

UCLA- The bruins also came into the regular season highly ranked but not so highly questioned about their performance (except me). Coming into the season the only loss was to Nebraska, and it is to be noted that UCLA is the only team this season to take a game off of Nebraska. UCLA returns the best setter in the country in Nellie Spicer and arguably the best defenders in the country. They went 2-2 against the other top 10 teams in the conference, but had a ridiculous home loss to OSU. They currently have a 5-3 record


THE REALLY GOOD OUTSIDER

Oregon- the ducks are coming off an impressive season last year and continuing its emergence. Unfortunately the ducks just can’t seem to be able to get the good win against the teams previously mentioned. Thankfully for the ducks they’ve beaten all the teams below them and will make the tournament. Oregon will be a dangerous first round opponent for ANY team

THE MUDDY BOTTOM

Arizona- the cats have put up a fight against many of the top teams this year…including a 5 gamer tonight against Cal, and pushing USC and UCLA to 5 on the road…. Unfortunately, like Oregon, the cats just can’t seem to get what’s important…the win.

OSU- the beavers are a bit of a surprise. Sure they’ve lost a lot of games…but unlike Arizona and Oregon, they actually have wins against top teams, on the road no less. Hawaii and more importantly UCLA fell on their own court to the beavers. If it weren’t for a lack luster preseason, OSU would be a good candidate for the 7th Pac-10 team to the tournament

ASU- has a win over Arizona

WSU- has no wins….



Second Half Prediction

The top team who has the most to lose is Cal. Already sitting at 5-3, they have to play all of the other top teams on the road in the second half of pac-10 play. Cal would have to win out, and something happen to Stanford and Washington for Cal to take the Pac-10 crown. Needless to say that it seems highly unlikely. UCLA seems to have lost a lot of its composure after losing at home to OSU and getting handled easily by Washington. USC has suffered some critical injuries that are costing them matches. They too are very vulnerable. Next week will be really interesting because the bay area schools visit the LA schools. I think Stanford will hold its own but Cal is the one that needs to take advantage of a mentally fragile UCLA squad and depleted USC squad if they want to end up #3 in the conference. If Washington continues it’s impressive play they will win their next 3 games and then face the task of hosting the bay area schools, then traveling to the LA schools. There is still a lot of volleyball left to be played but if I’m judging by how the teams are playing right now, this is my prediction

Washington*- 16-2 will get the home win against Stanford and be Pac-10 champions
Stanford- 16-2- will still be ranked higher than Washington
USC- 13-5
Cal- 13-5
UCLA- 11-7
Oregon-…bad conference record, but will make the tournament

I also don’t think that there will be anymore upsets...lol but I'm probably wrong!

[roofed!]

The advantage to USC is that they play the top teams (Stanford, Cal, UW and UCLA) at Galen Center for second half of the conference.

Out of those 4 matches, USC can go 3-1 with a loss to Stanford. A lot depends, though, on how soon Copenhagen and especially Roleder will come back fully healthy.

[ay2013]

And on another note, Christal Morrison will most likely be the Pac-10 player of the week for the second time in a row. She had 30 kills, about a .300 hitting percentage, 22 Digs, and 9 blocks in 3-0 sweeps of the #4 and #7 team in the country. the only other player who could get it would be a stanford player who had higher numbers, but their opponents aren't ranked.

[ay2013]

The Cardinal had crazy numbers this weekend. Tonight against ASU, all of the main players hit above .400...with Girard hitting a perfect .1000 on 7 kills!

[tnp101]

I think it will be a payback time when Stanford visits Washington. Dunning will prepare the girls their mental toughness. It won't be easy for Washington to win at home this time around.

So Stanford will sit on top of Pac-10 with 17-1,
UW 16-2,
There will be a 3-way tie between UCLA, USC and Cal in the middle.
Follow by Oregon and Arizona.
I think Arizona might squeez in depending on their 2nd half finish. They are finishing strong in the first half of the season. Realy knocking at the door. A few points here and there they would have won those 5 gamers. Just need to get "W". I'd like to see them get in.

[BearClause]

ay2013 said:

And on another note, Christal Morrison will most likely be the Pac-10 player of the week for the second time in a row. She had 30 kills, about a .300 hitting percentage, 22 Digs, and 9 blocks in 3-0 sweeps of the #4 and #7 team in the country. the only other player who could get it would be a stanford player who had higher numbers, but their opponents aren't ranked.

I wouldn't count on any player getting POW two weeks in a row. I've seen several Pac-10 POW honors go to players who put up good numbers against weaker competition.

[ay2013]

bearclause said:

ay2013 said:

And on another note, Christal Morrison will most likely be the Pac-10 player of the week for the second time in a row. She had 30 kills, about a .300 hitting percentage, 22 Digs, and 9 blocks in 3-0 sweeps of the #4 and #7 team in the country. the only other player who could get it would be a stanford player who had higher numbers, but their opponents aren't ranked.

I wouldn't count on any player getting POW two weeks in a row. I've seen several Pac-10 POW honors go to players who put up good numbers against weaker competition.

As have I, but not during the same week when two top 10 teams get swept by one team

[comic]

Will there be teams (ASU,OSU?) that cannot qualify for the NCAA due to a losing record?

[Ye Olde Dawg]

comic said:

Will there be teams (ASU,OSU?) that cannot qualify for the NCAA due to a losing record?

Yes. ASU is 11-11 right now and could well lose more than half of their remaining matches. That could be bad news for Arizona, who has a better chance of having at least a .500 record, bit the wildcats probably have to pass ASU in the conference before they'll be selected.

Although... RKPI places UA and ASU at #57 and 58. If they have the same RPI when the NCAA selection committee starts picking teams, they'd be pretty marginal selections at best.

OSU currently is #42 in RKPI. They'd have to go 6-3 over the rest of the season to have a winning record overall, which means beating at least two of ay's "muddy middle" teams -- all of which happen to be ranked. Even playing at their best, that seems unlikely.

[Gorf]

sankyu said:

comic said:

Will there be teams (ASU,OSU?) that cannot qualify for the NCAA due to a losing record?

Yes. ASU is 11-11 right now and could well lose more than half of their remaining matches. That could be bad news for Arizona, who has a better chance of having at least a .500 record, bit the wildcats probably have to pass ASU in the conference before they'll be selected.

Although... RKPI places UA and ASU at #57 and 58. If they have the same RPI when the NCAA selection committee starts picking teams, they'd be pretty marginal selections at best.

OSU currently is #42 in RKPI. They'd have to go 6-3 over the rest of the season to have a winning record overall, which means beating at least two of ay's "muddy middle" teams -- all of which happen to be ranked. Even playing at their best, that seems unlikely.

The NCAA qualification ruling is that a team needs to have a better than .500 overall record.

I won't be surprised to see 7 Pac-10 teams getting selected to the tournament.

AU (if they have another non-conference match scheduled could go 3-6 in their remain 9 Pac-10 matches to finish 15-15 over all then win the non-conference match to become elibgible. The be better off going at least 4-5 in the final 9 conference match and clinching a winning record before any additional non-conference match(es).

OSU would need to go at least 6-3 in their final 9 conference match and when another non-conference match to qualify.

WSU would need to go 7-2 in their final 9 conference match and either win or don't play another non-conference match.


So it would seem seem OSU and WSU are pretty much eliminated now.

ASU has a marginal chance to qualify and AU has a moderate chance to qualify.

The other 6 teams seem to be pretty much locks for being selected.
ASU would need to go 5-4 in their last 9 conference matche, or 6-4 if they have another non-conference match scheduled.

[bigfan]

bearclause said:

ay2013 said:

And on another note, Christal Morrison will most likely be the Pac-10 player of the week for the second time in a row. She had 30 kills, about a .300 hitting percentage, 22 Digs, and 9 blocks in 3-0 sweeps of the #4 and #7 team in the country. the only other player who could get it would be a stanford player who had higher numbers, but their opponents aren't ranked.

I wouldn't count on any player getting POW two weeks in a row. I've seen several Pac-10 POW honors go to players who put up good numbers against weaker competition.

If not Morrison then who??

[ay2013]

bigfan said:

bearclause said:

I wouldn't count on any player getting POW two weeks in a row. I've seen several Pac-10 POW honors go to players who put up good numbers against weaker competition.

If not Morrison then who??

Like I said, the only other candidates will be one of the Stanford players that put excellent numbers against the Arizona schools. Foluke Akinradewo had 24 kills and hit over .500 in the Cardinals sweep of the Arizona schools. It's just a matter of what you value, Morrisons leading the team with above decent numbers to a sweep of two top 10 teams, or Akinradewo leading her team with stellar numbers to a sweep of non ranked teams. I pick the first one, but then again I don't get a vote do I?

[prosem]

I would like to see Tama nominated and perhaps win it.
Time for a Libero to get some credit

[sandvb02]

gorf said:

sankyu said:

Yes. ASU is 11-11 right now and could well lose more than half of their remaining matches. That could be bad news for Arizona, who has a better chance of having at least a .500 record, bit the wildcats probably have to pass ASU in the conference before they'll be selected.

Although... RKPI places UA and ASU at #57 and 58. If they have the same RPI when the NCAA selection committee starts picking teams, they'd be pretty marginal selections at best.

OSU currently is #42 in RKPI. They'd have to go 6-3 over the rest of the season to have a winning record overall, which means beating at least two of ay's "muddy middle" teams -- all of which happen to be ranked. Even playing at their best, that seems unlikely.

The NCAA qualification ruling is that a team needs to have a better than .500 overall record.

I won't be surprised to see 7 Pac-10 teams getting selected to the tournament.

AU (if they have another non-conference match scheduled could go 3-6 in their remain 9 Pac-10 matches to finish 15-15 over all then win the non-conference match to become elibgible. The be better off going at least 4-5 in the final 9 conference match and clinching a winning record before any additional non-conference match(es).

OSU would need to go at least 6-3 in their final 9 conference match and when another non-conference match to qualify.

WSU would need to go 7-2 in their final 9 conference match and either win or don't play another non-conference match.


So it would seem seem OSU and WSU are pretty much eliminated now.

ASU has a marginal chance to qualify and AU has a moderate chance to qualify.

The other 6 teams seem to be pretty much locks for being selected.
ASU would need to go 5-4 in their last 9 conference matche, or 6-4 if they have another non-conference match scheduled.

Since ASU has won two conferences matches so far against Arizona and OSU. OSU has won one. Isn't ASU in a better position than OSU??

[sandvb02]

gorf said:

sankyu said:

Yes. ASU is 11-11 right now and could well lose more than half of their remaining matches. That could be bad news for Arizona, who has a better chance of having at least a .500 record, bit the wildcats probably have to pass ASU in the conference before they'll be selected.

Although... RKPI places UA and ASU at #57 and 58. If they have the same RPI when the NCAA selection committee starts picking teams, they'd be pretty marginal selections at best.

OSU currently is #42 in RKPI. They'd have to go 6-3 over the rest of the season to have a winning record overall, which means beating at least two of ay's "muddy middle" teams -- all of which happen to be ranked. Even playing at their best, that seems unlikely.

The NCAA qualification ruling is that a team needs to have a better than .500 overall record.

I won't be surprised to see 7 Pac-10 teams getting selected to the tournament.

AU (if they have another non-conference match scheduled could go 3-6 in their remain 9 Pac-10 matches to finish 15-15 over all then win the non-conference match to become elibgible. The be better off going at least 4-5 in the final 9 conference match and clinching a winning record before any additional non-conference match(es).

OSU would need to go at least 6-3 in their final 9 conference match and when another non-conference match to qualify.

WSU would need to go 7-2 in their final 9 conference match and either win or don't play another non-conference match.


So it would seem seem OSU and WSU are pretty much eliminated now.

ASU has a marginal chance to qualify and AU has a moderate chance to qualify.

The other 6 teams seem to be pretty much locks for being selected.
ASU would need to go 5-4 in their last 9 conference matche, or 6-4 if they have another non-conference match scheduled.

Since ASU has won two conferences matches so far against Arizona and OSU. OSU has won one. Isn't ASU in a better position Arizona at this point??