Men's Semifinal Analysis

[bunnywailer]

Same four teams from Athens 2004 again make it to the semifinals in Beijing 2008. Different matchups this time though, in 2004 USA lost to Brazil in the semis, while Russia lost to Italy. Russia then beat USA for the Bronze. Four years later, things have changed. However, of the 3 possible opponents that USA could have faced in the semis, I think Russia is perhaps the most difficult in terms of matchups. In my opinion, USA matches up better with the speed game than they do the power game. I think of Russia as a bigger, better, more experienced Bulgaria - and Bulgaria presented some matchup problems in pool play.

Brazil - best team in the world, by far. Best athletes of the four semifinalists. The confidence of being the dominant program in the world for the past quadrennial. Lots of weapons. If I were the USA I would focus on taking away 2 of their biggest weapons early on, and make Brazil rely on their 3rd or 4th choices. Unlike the USA which channels alot of their offense to the right/D and the opposite player, Brazil is very heavy on their leftsides - Dante and Giba. I say take those guys away and make their middles and opposite beat you. I give the serving and hitting advantage to Brazil, the blocking advantage to the USA.

Italy - haven't seen them much, so I don't know a whole lot about them. I know they still have Fei and Cernic on their team. I think Italy is like the USA in that their system and their balance are their strongest points.

Russia - the reason I think it's such a bad matchup is because of Russia's size and their blocking prowess. I don't think Stanley will have a good match unless the USA stays in system more than 80% of the time. He will definitely get blocked alot on high transition balls. I think the USA needs to attack Khamuttskikh (Russia's setter and team captain) when he's in the front row. I'm assuming he's still the starter. I also think the USA needs to establish the middle attack early to keep the pressure off their wing attackers. If you don't get the Russian middles to hold against Millar and Lee, they will feast on Priddy/Salmon/Stanley.

[Phaedrus]

Is Giba 100%? He sat out a couple of matches.

Gustavo is a pretty darned good middle. If you focus on the outsides and let him pound, you might still be in trouble.

I think Fei is done for the Olympics.

[KO7]

I agree that Russia is the worst match-up for the USA. Here's my analysis:

-Grankin, who seems to have taken the starting spot from Khamuttskikh, is very slow on defence and transition and is quite predictable with setting his middles. Exploit him in the backrow once in a while.

-Poltavsky / Mikhaylov on the rightside: Unstoppable, both of them. Stay disciplined with blocking, because they (Poltavsky especially) like to go high hands every so often. Incredible line shots, I wouldn't give them line and hope to dig that.

-For some reason, coach Alekno has elected to use Kosarev even though he's struggled, but expect to see Berezkho to get subbed in. Kosarev often hits the ball out, but grazes top of hands, so stay disciplined in blocking. Tetyukhin is solid and dependable as always, close up the block against him.

-Middles: Russia is blessed with incredible middles, I haven't even seen Ostapenko in there except for serving duty. Expect Volkov and Koulechov to get their kills when the passing is on.

I would serve to Kosarev / Berezkho instead of Tetyukhin and Verbov, but must serve tough to take out their middle option. When they're out of system, their left-sides aren't very scary, but either Poltavsky or Mikhaylov are incredibly dangerous, so try to contain them. The key to this game will be who serves well and receives well enough to allow middles to run, and in the case for USA: to prevent necessity of high-balls to Salmon and Priddy whenever possible.

[doctordubya]

Some really good analysis on here, almost all of which I think is spot-on.

Certainly Russia is the worst match-up for USA. But I wouldn't fear their opposites too much - agreed, Poltavskiy and Mikhaylov can be very good, but they can also be very bad. This season Poltavskiy even lost his starting slot on his club side after a series of matches where he was stopped a few times early and then just seemed to check out mentally thereafter. These guys are not as good as Miljkovic either mentally or physically, and USA got past him (just).

The comparison with Bulgaria is very well-made. But again, to look on the positive side - none of the Russian outsides are in the same class as Kaziyski as hitters, and USA got past Bulgaria.

Definitely the key will be whether USA can pass well enough to stay in system enough of the time. If they do, then a lot rests on Lloy Ball - he has been playing in Russia all season, so it is up to him whether this becomes an advantage (because he knows how to outwit the Russian systems) or a disadvantage (because the Russians will know his tendencies).

I think USA will win. They have demonstrated great resilience and toughness in this tournament, and their key players are in good form.

[doctordubya]

Aug 20, 2008 14:55:57 GMT -5 KO7 said:

-Middles: Russia is blessed with incredible middles, I haven't even seen Ostapenko in there except for serving duty.

Ostapenko is a great hitter and his offence is also excellent -probably as good as Volkov and Koulechov. But his blocking is not as good (sealing to the outside rather weak), hence he doesn't get the start. His serving is much better than Koulechov (wouldn't it be great if Lee and Millar could pound jump serves like the Russian guys? I don't see why they don't train this)

[30killspergame]

Russia is just like Serbia in many ways but more experienced and they do not rely on one hitter so you can't really load up. You have to respect everyone. The key will be constant serve pressure from Stanley and Pridy in my opinion.

[rhinovb14]

Nice job BarcelonaBob. I've watched every USA match and have seen Brazil about a dozen times in the past couple of years. Russia can be lazy and slow sometimes. They have a big block, but the USA passing has been crisp and they have been running a fairly quick transition. The high D ball is my only concern. Stanley is great, but I say get Priddy going on the Bic Ball and get the middles involved. One of the middles (Lee maybe) was just bombing the other day in the quarters.