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Post by ay2013 on Oct 12, 2014 15:32:18 GMT -5
Haven't been following the Big West this season. Hawaii drops two matches this weekend? I thought they could get a seed this year...not anymore.
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Post by ACE on Oct 12, 2014 18:40:33 GMT -5
Haven't been following the Big West this season. Hawaii drops two matches this weekend? I thought they could get a seed this year...not anymore. The way Hawaii played this weekend - especially Friday night, they could easily lose on the road to Irvine, Poly, or Davis and possibly lose to Northridge and Long Beach at home....the heck with the seed, I'm worried about making the tournament should Hawaii not finish 1-2. As ccman mentioned, Hawaii's best win is against #38 Ohio and they have no good road wins and will not get any the rest of this season.
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Post by Cubicle No More ... on Oct 13, 2014 13:51:10 GMT -5
Haven't been following the Big West this season. Hawaii drops two matches this weekend? I thought they could get a seed this year...not anymore. The way Hawaii played this weekend - especially Friday night, they could easily lose on the road to Irvine, Poly, or Davis and possibly lose to Northridge and Long Beach at home....the heck with the seed, I'm worried about making the tournament should Hawaii not finish 1-2. As ccman mentioned, Hawaii's best win is against #38 Ohio and they have no good road wins and will not get any the rest of this season. i wouldn't go this far. hawaii is still around #24 in the RPI (per the unofficial one). something drastic would have to happen for hawaii to drop all the way to the 40s (where the cut off usually is). as frustrating as this weekend was, i don't think the wheels have come off just yet.
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Post by italianmattd on Oct 13, 2014 14:14:43 GMT -5
Hmmm I like the optimism. What's scary is that Hawaii can easily get snubbed by the committee... if the wheels are starting to fall off.
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Post by Cubicle No More ... on Oct 13, 2014 14:37:21 GMT -5
Hmmm I like the optimism. What's scary is that Hawaii can easily get snubbed by the committee... if the wheels are starting to fall off. if the wheels fall off and the rpi falls below the mid-40s ... well then yeah ... but then any team would get snubbed in that scenario. is it optimistic to think hawaii would make the tournament? i think that's grounded in reality (at least the way things stand now). hawaii had a rough weekend against the 2 teams that would challenge for the big west title. it's not optimistic to think the wheels falls off. i haven't re-adjusted my standard for success for this team just quite yet ...
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Oct 13, 2014 14:39:42 GMT -5
The wheels are off. Taylor has been back on the floor and isn't the same player she was before her injury. I'm sure she will get there but probably not in time to salvage the season for Hawai'i. The passing this year is pretty bad and the Wahine floor defense isn't much better. Hawai'i is a good serving team when they get their serves in, and their block is better than it has been in a long time, but there is no consistency in other parts of their game. This team needs a lot of work. I hope that they can get it together before the end of the season.
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Post by Cubicle No More ... on Oct 13, 2014 14:42:59 GMT -5
The wheels are off. Taylor has been back on the floor and isn't the same player she was before her injury. I'm sure she will get there but probably not in time to salvage the season for Hawai'i. The passing this year is pretty bad and the Wahine floor defense isn't much better. Hawai'i is a good serving team when they get their serves in, and their block is better than it has been in a long time, but there is no consistency in other parts of their game. This team needs a lot of work. I hope that they can get it together before the end of the season. but not to the point where they'd fail to make the tournament ... which is what the prior posts were about. that the team has a lot to work on still ... that i'm in complete agreement with.
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Oct 13, 2014 14:48:48 GMT -5
The wheels are off. Taylor has been back on the floor and isn't the same player she was before her injury. I'm sure she will get there but probably not in time to salvage the season for Hawai'i. The passing this year is pretty bad and the Wahine floor defense isn't much better. Hawai'i is a good serving team when they get their serves in, and their block is better than it has been in a long time, but there is no consistency in other parts of their game. This team needs a lot of work. I hope that they can get it together before the end of the season. but not to the point where they'd fail to make the tournament ... which is what the prior posts were about. that the team has a lot to work on still ... that i'm in complete agreement with. Yes, I don't think the wheels have fallen off as far as getting into the tourney is concerned. I think they'll get in. This trip only served to highlight problems in the Wahine game that was evident early on.
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Oct 13, 2014 15:30:32 GMT -5
Mackie, Hoffman, Lee Capture Big West Volleyball Weekly Awards
10/13/2014 The weekly volleyball honors were bestowed upon Long Beach State senior Bre Mackie, UC Santa Barbara freshman Chanel Hoffman and UC Irvine senior Allison Lee. Mackie’s Career Night Fuels Victory Over No. 21 Hawai‘i Long Beach State senior Bre Mackie (Redding, Calif./Central Valley HS) delivered a career-best effort in a five-set victory over No. 21 Hawai‘i to earn the Big West Women’s Volleyball Player of the Week award. Mackie’s career-highs of 20 kills and nine total blocks helped the 49ers snap a seven-match losing streak to UH and defeat the Rainbow Wahine for the first time since 2000. She produced a .327 hitting percentage with just four errors on a team-high 49 swings. The victory solidified first place for the 49ers in the Big West at 4-0. She punctuated her solid all-around effort by putting down the final kill of the match, which secured the first 20-kill performance of her career. In addition, she had a career-high tying eight digs, which left her just two digs and one block short of a triple-double. In the past two weeks, significant contributions from Mackie have spurred the 49ers to victories over two of the top Big West contenders in CSUN and Hawai‘i. Others nominated: McKenna Painton (Cal State Fullerton); Casey Hinger (CSUN); Kendall Walbrecht (UC Davis); Arielle Manz (UC Irvine) Freshman Hoffman Leads UCSB Effort UC Santa Barbara outside hitter Chanel Hoffman (Corona, Calif./Santiago HS) turned in an outstanding all-around effort in a 1-1 conference split to garner Big West Women’s Volleyball Freshman Player of the Week acclaim. Hoffman averaged 3.22 kills, 2.22 digs, 1.11 blocks and 0.33 service aces per set as the Gauchos lost a tough five-set affair to UC Irvine and rebounded to beat Cal State Fullerton in four. She also hit an efficient .419 against the Titans and finished with a .274 hitting percentage for the week. She tallied a double-double against the Anteaters with 14 kills and 11 digs to go along with two aces and four total blocks. Hoffman slammed 15 kills on 31 swings with only two errors to power UCSB’s attack against CSF. Her nine digs just missed her second consecutive double-double. In addition, she recorded a personal-best six block assist. In the second set at Fullerton, she keyed an 8-0 run at the service line, giving the Gauchos their first lead in the game. Others nominated: Raeann Greisen (Cal Poly); Niki Withers (Cal State Fullerton); Lauren Conati (CSUN); Ashley Murray (Long Beach State); Erika Conners (UC Davis) Lee Spearheads UCI Defensive Effort In Big West Sweep UC Irvine senior Allison Lee (San Pedro, Calif./Palos Verdes Peninsula HS) did a little bit of everything in notching Big West Women’s Volleyball Defensive Player of the Week honors. Her primary contribution came on the defensive end where she averaged 4.88 digs per set in back-to-back wins over UC Santa Barbara and Cal Poly. But the 6-0 outside hitter also tallied 20 kills, four service aces and and four block assists to her ledger over the two matches. Lee posted a career-high 24 digs in a five-set win over the Gauchos, chipping in 13 kills for her ninth double-double of the season. She piled on 15 more digs against the Mustangs in the straight set victory. Lee ranks second on the Anteaters with 239 digs. Others nominated: Nicole Kessler (Cal Poly); McKenna Painton (Cal State Fullerton); Kelcie Randazzo (CSUN); Ashley Murray (Long Beach State); Megan Lancaster (UC Davis); Chanel Hoffman (UC Santa Barbara) - See more at: www.bigwest.org//story.asp?story_id=18003#sthash.oZq2xQ6k.dpuf
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Oct 13, 2014 22:57:22 GMT -5
RPI/AVCA Ranking/Massey:
Northridge: 16/29/17 Hawaii: 25/31/34 Long Beach: 32/27/30 Irvine: 102/-/81 SB: 123/-/88 Ful: 172/-/182 Davis: 173/-/117 (57 point differential) Poly: 221/-/123 (100 point diffential - yikes!)
this is overall some not so good news for the Big West and a little good news. the disparities between the mid-level Big West teams in their RPI & Massey is massive - RPI is significantly downgrading them (and the conference) relative to accurately representing their true ability (which is reflected better by Massey) - Poly's RPI is shocking - they are not that bad if you look at teams above them - LB/Northridge have yet to play SB & Poly & Davis - so they are about to experience the RPI downgrade with half their remaining games against those 3 teams - not only that SB & Davis, maybe Poly, are capable of an upset especially at home.
an upset of the top 3 is a virtual statistical certainty. However, the good news is that if LB/Haw avoid those 'bad' losses, the Big West has a good chance of getting 3 teams, and Hawaii has managed to have a good RPI schedule - which they need especially this year. Northridge has a lot of margin. Actually Northridge should be a serious candidate to host a regional if they had a larger gym, because if they ran the table or maybe only had one more loss to a team like SB, while stacking up two more 'quality' top 25/50 wins against LB & Haw, they would have a solid 15-16th ish resume.
I just cannot believe how much RPI screws the Big West overall though, every year. It always underrates the conference.
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Post by volleyguy on Oct 13, 2014 23:16:52 GMT -5
RPI/AVCA Ranking/Massey: Northridge: 16/29/17 Hawaii: 25/31/34 Long Beach: 32/27/30 Irvine: 102/-/81 SB: 123/-/88 Ful: 172/-/182 Davis: 173/-/117 (57 point differential) Poly: 221/-/123 (100 point diffential - yikes!) this is overall some not so good news for the Big West and a little good news. the disparities between the mid-level Big West teams in their RPI & Massey is massive - RPI is significantly downgrading them (and the conference) relative to accurately representing their true ability (which is reflected better by Massey) - Poly's RPI is shocking - they are not that bad if you look at teams above them - LB/Northridge have yet to play SB & Poly & Davis - so they are about to experience the RPI downgrade with half their remaining games against those 3 teams - not only that SB & Davis, maybe Poly, are capable of an upset especially at home. an upset of the top 3 is a virtual statistical certainty. However, the good news is that if LB/Haw avoid those 'bad' losses, the Big West has a good chance of getting 3 teams, and Hawaii has managed to have a good RPI schedule - which they need especially this year. Northridge has a lot of margin. Actually Northridge should be a serious candidate to host a regional if they had a larger gym, because if they ran the table or maybe only had one more loss to a team like SB, while stacking up two more 'quality' top 25/50 wins against LB & Haw, they would have a solid 15-16th ish resume. I just cannot believe how much RPI screws the Big West overall though, every year. It always underrates the conference. Bluepenguin's RPI futures analysis in a separate thread puts Hawaii, Northridge and Long Beach squarely in safe rpi range for NCAA tournament bids (16, 21 and 31 respectively), which seems just about right, so there's really no need for the chicken little routine.
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Oct 13, 2014 23:31:13 GMT -5
it's not a 'chicken little' routine. it's just data - the disparity between RPI & better rating systems is REAL and it occurs every year and it penalizes both the Big West & WCC more than any other conferences.
yes, I've seen the predictor, what that predictor fails to point out is how slim the margin of error is, or other factors like the compounded use of RPI. RPI is used for ranking AND for determining top 25 & top 50 W-L records - so it's flaws get compounded in that regard, and given Hawaii has a single top 50 RPI win, they may not be as 'safe' as one might think think.
the operative word is 'squarely safe', meaning LB & Haw in particular are anything but 'safe', albeit Hawaii has a very favorable schedule for the rest of the year .
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Oct 14, 2014 0:18:21 GMT -5
lol, yeah, it's 'safe', until say LB loses to SB on the road (one of the 3 losses), at which point there is no margin for error for LB.
as to 40 being safe, that isn't necessarily so, probable yes, but not exactly.
I understand what Bluepenquin's projection is doing, and it's a tool, but so what does that have to do with the data I presented?
as to fairly predictable? well, I suggest you go back 2-3 weeks and pick 4-5 teams that are non top 25 teams on Bluepenquin's projection (take a look at Oregon State), and come back here and post your findings about how stable it predictors are compared to where they are now versus where they were two-three weeks ago - especially for a predictor based on RPI!
the compounding of using a flawed system (and the data from other ratings shows RPI to be flawed) is a FACT. if you use RPI to rank and then use it AGAIN to rank/adjust (such as RPI top 25 W-L, top 50 W-L), then that is IN FACT compounding the flaw. And that is what gets done in selection. It is not mumbo-jumbo if one actually understands what compounding of errors/flaws actually means.
it's a laughable argument of using RPI to justify the use of RPI.
Furthermore, I refer to Massey to get an INDEPENDENT and more accurate assesment of a team's ranking vs. RPI. And if one thinks RPI is a better assessment tool than Massey, so be it. The argument to avoid discussing Massey is silly, just like it would be silly to avoid discussion of Pablo. Massey is free and available, and updated daily, neither Pablo or RPI are - so there - tough tuna!!!
as to Massey vs. RPI, do you have data to suggest RPI is better, because if so please publish it?? For one Massey factors in points & home/away better - ask yourself why do you think RPI is favorable to Hawaii after all???
I suggest you review the teams that are supposedly better than Cal Poly's 221 RPI versus their 123 Massey, and come back it and sell the forum that Cal Poly really is the 221st best team in D1??
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Oct 14, 2014 0:24:03 GMT -5
here is what Rich Kern posted about RPI projections:
"Interesting but not totally relevant to volleyball. Only two of the last ten years has the selection committee totally used the RPI to select teams and even then the actual RPI had nothing to do with how team brackets were set up. In those two years, they did use the only teams that qualified (after allowing for AQ teams) but didn't use the actual RPI for anything, not even to seed teams. Last year they used their own "judgement" and ignored teams like Tulsa (RPI 30), Butler (43), and UCLA (47) in order to select Colorado, Miami-FL, and Arizona State (49-51). So having a better predictor for future RPI really means nothing. All you can really do is try to be in the ballpark and HOPE the selection committee thinks you have what it takes ... or is some cases in the past, are a team with a representative on the selection committee."
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Post by volleyguy on Oct 14, 2014 1:33:17 GMT -5
lol, yeah, it's 'safe', until say LB loses to SB on the road (one of the 3 losses), at which point there is no margin for error for LB. as to 40 being safe, that isn't necessarily so, probable yes, but not exactly. I understand what Bluepenquin's projection is doing, and it's a tool, but so what does that have to do with the data I presented? as to fairly predictable? well, I suggest you go back 2-3 weeks and pick 4-5 teams that are non top 25 teams on Bluepenquin's projection (take a look at Oregon State), and come back here and post your findings about how stable it predictors are compared to where they are now versus where they were two-three weeks ago - especially for a predictor based on RPI! the compounding of using a flawed system (and the data from other ratings shows RPI to be flawed) is a FACT. if you use RPI to rank and then use it AGAIN to rank/adjust (such as RPI top 25 W-L, top 50 W-L), then that is IN FACT compounding the flaw. And that is what gets done in selection. It is not mumbo-jumbo if one actually understands what compounding of errors/flaws actually means. it's a laughable argument of using RPI to justify the use of RPI. Furthermore, I refer to Massey to get an INDEPENDENT and more accurate assesment of a team's ranking vs. RPI. And if one thinks RPI is a better assessment tool than Massey, so be it. The argument to avoid discussing Massey is silly, just like it would be silly to avoid discussion of Pablo. Massey is free and available, and updated daily, neither Pablo or RPI are - so there - tough tuna!!! as to Massey vs. RPI, do you have data to suggest RPI is better, because if so please publish it?? For one Massey factors in points & home/away better - ask yourself why do you think RPI is favorable to Hawaii after all??? I suggest you review the teams that are supposedly better than Cal Poly's 221 RPI versus their 123 Massey, and come back it and sell the forum that Cal Poly really is the 221st best team in D1?? Blah, blah, blah. It doesn't matter what data you are presenting, because it's not being used to determine the field. That's the point. What is clear is that rpi is a significant determinant of the field for the selection committee--perhaps not exactly, but within a very close margin, with the seedings deviating some from actual rpi, primarily geographically. That isn't a defense of rpi as much as a description of practical reality. So, if you are truly interested in a better way to select and seed the tournament field, why pick Massey over Pablo other than being a cheap skate? I
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