bluepenquin
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4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,440
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Post by bluepenquin on Sept 23, 2014 8:54:14 GMT -5
VCU isn' going to be 18-10. They are 5-7 right now. But I'm a numbers/stat person, so I like the thread -- nice job throwing this out here. It's fun to speculate. VCU has 2 road non-conference games that they are favored to win (but not certain). So I went with 7-7 in the nonconference. They also have the highest Pablo rating in the A-10 - so I just went with an 11-3 record for them in conference. Now, looking at this closer - there just isn't much difference between the top 6 teams (according to Pablo) - VCU, G.Washington, Dayton, Duquesne, St. Louis, and Rhode Island. No one should have been projected to go 11-3, but someone is likely to go 11-3. VCU has 8 games against the 'other' top 5 teams in the conference - 4 home and 4 road. It is possible/reasonable that VCU goes 5-3 in those games. I don't know much about the A-10 other than Pablo ratings and game scores this year, so there are many others with better insight on the conference than me.
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Post by spikerthemovie on Sept 23, 2014 11:56:09 GMT -5
Just noticed this model has Hawaii winning out. Really? not quite. this has them going 15-1. attainable, but a reach. it's more likely that the top 3 teams (hawaii, csun and lbsu) beat up on each other ... with mid-teams (like ucsb) possibly sneaking in a win against them. Sorry about that. I looked at the schedule and counted up the losses listed on the schedule. (What is that Toyota Auto Body match doing on there?)
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Post by c4ndlelight on Sept 23, 2014 12:00:58 GMT -5
This model would have 4 seeds and 8 teams in each for both the B1G and PAC. Both have hosting regionals, but the 2 others are in B1G country. So much for 12-6 H2H and 10% higher OOC winning percentage.... But there's a lot of season left, so who knows.
Also, looking at where NC State and UNC Wilmington might end up makes my eyes hurt.
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Post by ay2013 on Sept 23, 2014 23:20:12 GMT -5
This model would have 4 seeds and 8 teams in each for both the B1G and PAC. Both have hosting regionals, but the 2 others are in B1G country. So much for 12-6 H2H and 10% higher OOC winning percentage.... But there's a lot of season left, so who knows. Also, looking at where NC State and UNC Wilmington might end up makes my eyes hurt. It's because the Big 10's OOC OPP win/loss percentage is pretty strong, which means that for the Big 10 conference teams, their OPP-OPP record (25% of the RPI) will be pretty strong, slightly offsetting the less than stellar Big 10 OOC win/percentage
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Post by spikerthemovie on Sept 24, 2014 16:32:42 GMT -5
USC only losing five more matches this season is starting to look suspect. Seven or more seems likely.
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