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Post by rampageripster on Oct 20, 2014 11:20:37 GMT -5
On a side note... I'm really peeved Purdue doesn't come to Columbus... I'd love another shot at them
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Post by gogophers on Oct 20, 2014 11:31:38 GMT -5
I hope Bluepenguin is right in projecting 11 wins for Minn. But that means Minn goes 8-4 the rest of the way. I assume that Indiana, Iowa, and Maryland account for 4 of those 8. But I wonder who the other 4 wins are going to come against, according to this projection?
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 20, 2014 12:46:11 GMT -5
I hope Bluepenguin is right in projecting 11 wins for Minn. But means Minn goes 8-4 the rest of the way. I assume that Indiana, Iowa, and Maryland account for 4 of those 8. But I wonder who the other 4 wins are going to come against, according to this projection? I was thinking somewhere between 10 and 11 wins - and rounded up. However, looking at the Pablo win probability - 11 wins may be high. Their win probability is better than 85% against Indiana and Iowa at home and Maryland on the road. They have a less than 10% chance of beating Penn State. If those 4 matches go as projected - that puts MN at 6-6. Here are the win probabilities for the remaining 8 matches: Nebraska (41%) at Indiana (76.9%) at Purdue (36.2%) at Michigan State (43.2%) at Michigan (49.4%) Northwestern (57.4%) Purdue (49.4%) at Ohio State (37.9%) They are only favored to win 2 of these matches which would give them only an 8-12 record. However, each of these games are winable.
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Post by akbar on Oct 20, 2014 13:07:42 GMT -5
I get it., it's an opinion and you mean no ill by it. Exactly.
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Post by SportyBucky on Oct 20, 2014 13:34:09 GMT -5
Illinois looks anything but amazing to me. Yes, they beat NE and PSU, but the PSU of late hasn't been lights-out. They've been struggling on defense and can't terminate they way they're used to doing. Micha was pressing. It wasn't fun to watch (well, it kinda was). NE is error-prone and has significant chemistry issues...not to mention Mary can't set middle well to save her life. Illinois has improved serve receive and Griswell has played well but they've been really uneven. Against WI, they were horrible. They dropped a set against IA. I am not writing their ticket to a championship. I still like the consistency of WI and the talent of PSU to come out of the gauntlet the least scathed. Illinois was not horrible against Wisconsin, they were as you say "inconsistent" .They were still running the 6-2 at that point and the first half of that system didn't show up that game,which has been their issue for the last 3 years. I watched the Nebraska game and if the setter doesn't quit trying to rely on McMahon to carry the team we will continue to be inconsistent, shes in the front row with Birks and Stadick and setters choice is McMahon 99% of the time . I read from "Hammer" when someone else questioned that in the Nebraska game that Hambly told the setter to keep feeding her, I just don't know if I believe that. As far as Nebraska, the talent is there and I think they suffer from the same thing Illinois does.A "leader" that isn't a team player and coaches who feed the ego. I hate to admit this but I agree with notpriddy in his assessment regarding Wisconsin, they have the best "2nd" setter on the court at all times so if their hitters can come through they will do well. PSU is always a team to watch and from what I see Purdue and Ohio are right there too. If any of these teams get the title is wont be because the big is down it will be because the talent is equally disbursed. I disagree. IL looked pretty bad. Passing was bad. Lots of errors. Setting was just okay. Blocking so-so. My perception of that one match. Maybe they're uneven, but I haven't seen them "light it up" as much as I've seen other teams break down (ala NE and PSU). Unlike WI, PSU and Purdue, I've never once said "wow." Blocking tends to be good. Good OHs. Just so-so to me.
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Post by 2muchbs on Oct 20, 2014 13:54:06 GMT -5
Illinois was not horrible against Wisconsin, they were as you say "inconsistent" .They were still running the 6-2 at that point and the first half of that system didn't show up that game,which has been their issue for the last 3 years. I watched the Nebraska game and if the setter doesn't quit trying to rely on McMahon to carry the team we will continue to be inconsistent, shes in the front row with Birks and Stadick and setters choice is McMahon 99% of the time . I read from "Hammer" when someone else questioned that in the Nebraska game that Hambly told the setter to keep feeding her, I just don't know if I believe that. As far as Nebraska, the talent is there and I think they suffer from the same thing Illinois does.A "leader" that isn't a team player and coaches who feed the ego. I hate to admit this but I agree with notpriddy in his assessment regarding Wisconsin, they have the best "2nd" setter on the court at all times so if their hitters can come through they will do well. PSU is always a team to watch and from what I see Purdue and Ohio are right there too. If any of these teams get the title is wont be because the big is down it will be because the talent is equally disbursed. I disagree. IL looked pretty bad. Passing was bad. Lots of errors. Setting was just okay. Blocking so-so. My perception of that one match. Maybe they're uneven, but I haven't seen them "light it up" as much as I've seen other teams break down (ala NE and PSU). Unlike WI, PSU and Purdue, I've never once said "wow." Blocking tends to be good. Good OHs. Just so-so to me. I'll agree with you , I haven't seen then light it up yet in conference play but they have the ability . A few more adjustments after the switch to the 5-1 and they will be very very good. It's kinda funny you targeted the block and the setter because they both just got recognized for setter and defense of the week. I believe in our setters ability I just sometimes question her choices. But I'm learning there might be another agenda out of her control. I'm just hoping they "light it up " at just the right time,tournament time.
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Post by SportyBucky on Oct 20, 2014 13:58:32 GMT -5
I disagree. IL looked pretty bad. Passing was bad. Lots of errors. Setting was just okay. Blocking so-so. My perception of that one match. Maybe they're uneven, but I haven't seen them "light it up" as much as I've seen other teams break down (ala NE and PSU). Unlike WI, PSU and Purdue, I've never once said "wow." Blocking tends to be good. Good OHs. Just so-so to me. I'll agree with you , I haven't seen then light it up yet in conference play but they have the ability . A few more adjustments after the switch to the 5-1 and they will be very very good. It's kinda funny you targeted the block and the setter because they both just got recognized for setter and defense of the week. I believe in our setters ability I just sometimes question her choices. But I'm learning there might be another agenda out of her control. I'm just hoping they "light it up " at just the right time,tournament time. Not sure that getting recognized always equates to amazing performances. Setting was fine. You're right though, block was better than ok, but the Rolfson's enjoy hitting hard and straight into it.
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Post by 2muchbs on Oct 20, 2014 14:03:25 GMT -5
That's true it doesn't always reflect with accuracy but our block has been on all season with Stadick.
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Post by lionsfan on Oct 20, 2014 14:09:07 GMT -5
Being PSU's travel partner can be advantageous. Clearly Purdue and Nebraska were a little weathered from the nights before. The Nebraska and Illinois wins were gritty indeed and rare combacks in sports. OSU also will play two Michigan teams that are on a 3 and 4 match winning streaks. All 3-0 wins meaning they are playing more efficiently too than before. Yes I am aware who some of these wins are against but momentum is a powerful thing and these squads are probably feeling much better about themselves then where they were at the beginning of the year. Outside of Sandbothe, OSU lacks top tier B1G players and that will become a reality soon enough. No doubt they have played very hard and that has resulted in some wins but as said I'm not conVince they will end up any higher than 8th. It's just an opinion. Hopefully for OSU's sake and you as supporters I'm flat out wrong. Dude, there is so much wrong here I don't know where to start.... 1) I'm sick of this PSU travel partner BULLS**T. When the Buckeyes get a big win it's "PSU wore them down" EVERY SINGLE TIME. Maybe it's cause the Buckeyes are a good volleyball team? Possibly? One last note here, it's not as advantageous as you think... We are the only ones that will play PSU twice every season for forever.. That includes back to back matches. 2) You talk about the Michgan teams' "momentum" beating inferior opponents and fail to see that the Buckeyes have won 5 of 6, and were a couple points in a 5th set from 6 straight. And those are against quality opponents, 4 ranked teams, 2 on the road. Everything you have in that paragraph could be said about the Buckeyes, and they are doing it against the top 3rd of the conference. 3) You do realize that the Buckeyes went on this run without Sandbothe being even kind of healthy. If she was 100% all season this team is probably looking at a 6-2 start with their only losses at Wisc and Purdue (if not better... though I doubt it). Campbell and Sekinger have really emerged and Sherwin is turning in a fantastic season at setter so far. I think you haven't seen enough to change your prediction cause you aren't watching. I get it., it's an opinion and you mean no ill by it. But it is an opinion based on nonexistent evidence and is very poorly constructed. You might be right, but nothing is here to indicate that you are. I love when you get feisty (...and I agree with you)
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Post by alpacaone on Oct 20, 2014 20:22:17 GMT -5
I'd say Penn State has the better chance to win out, but after Neb, Ill, and Purdue the past three weekends, I believe that they will put up at least one more loss. I think that their play lately shows that they are going to have lapses. PSU's big wins are to UCLA, Wisconsin, Purdue, balanced with losses to Stanford, Illinois, Nebraska. Pursue was a Penn State fifth set that I'm used to seeing, maybe RR has found the side that gels? Wisconsin hasn't exactly faced the B1G's best the last couple of weeks; more than one loss certainly could come along their way. There are still questions I have with them. Their big wins are to only Colorado State and a less than stellar USC side, losses to Washington and PSU doesn't put them too far at all out of the Top4 however. I give them one loss between OSU, Illinois, Purduex2, Northwestern, and x3 against the Michigans; certainly we could see more than one loss out of all these by them, but we'll see. OSU I feel is like one of several teams this that is good enough to put together big wins, but can also play rather ordinary. Nebraska is a more mature version of the team many thought they would be last year until Robo, they can continue to spoil and really create a log jam. Illinois recieved lots of love from the coaches Jumping five spots past Oregon; that would be a fun match to watch. Too bad they fell to that near miracle fifth set come back or they would be in better position to make a run for the conference title. Every week when the futures were posted, it was asked who pSU would lose to, and they lost two already and came close a third time, maybe they are done losing in the Big10, maybe not, maybe they are the team with the best chance to win from here out, but they are also the team that right now needs to in order to keep pace, even if Purdue and Wisky lose one, PSU still can't drop one, without again waiting for another upset so they can pull ahead in the tie break. A lot can change in 12 matches, this season has shown so far it should be interesting.
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Post by BoilerUp! on Oct 20, 2014 22:38:37 GMT -5
Purdue has 10 games left where they are in some jeopardy of losing. Below is the estimated win % for each of those 10 games based on my interpetation of Pablo. at Northwestern (51.1%) at Illinois (24.6%) Wisconsin (21.9%) Minnesota (70.8%) at Nebraska (28.7%) at Iowa (80.0%) Northwestern (71.1%) at Minnesota (50.6%) at Michigan State (50.8%) at Wisconsin (13.3%) Purdue is favored in 6 of the 10 matches, but in 3 of those 6 they are favored to win by less than 52%. They have 3 matches that will be difficult to win Wisconsin 2X and at Illinois. Notice, Purdue has a better chance of losing at Iowa then beating Wisconsin in Wisconsin. Thanks for posting this. I see Purdue getting better every week. Hopefully that trend continues.
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Post by Boof1224 on Oct 21, 2014 3:15:14 GMT -5
Gonna be first to call it. Psu won't lose another conference match
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Post by future on Oct 21, 2014 6:02:29 GMT -5
Gonna be first to call it. Psu won't lose another conference match
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Post by SportyBucky on Oct 21, 2014 8:23:54 GMT -5
I'd say Penn State has the better chance to win out, but after Neb, Ill, and Purdue the past three weekends, I believe that they will put up at least one more loss. I think that their play lately shows that they are going to have lapses. PSU's big wins are to UCLA, Wisconsin, Purdue, balanced with losses to Stanford, Illinois, Nebraska. Pursue was a Penn State fifth set that I'm used to seeing, maybe RR has found the side that gels? Wisconsin hasn't exactly faced the B1G's best the last couple of weeks; more than one loss certainly could come along their way. There are still questions I have with them. Their big wins are to only Colorado State and a less than stellar USC side, losses to Washington and PSU doesn't put them too far at all out of the Top4 however. I give them one loss between OSU, Illinois, Purduex2, Northwestern, and x3 against the Michigans; certainly we could see more than one loss out of all these by them, but we'll see. OSU I feel is like one of several teams this that is good enough to put together big wins, but can also play rather ordinary. Nebraska is a more mature version of the team many thought they would be last year until Robo, they can continue to spoil and really create a log jam. Illinois recieved lots of love from the coaches Jumping five spots past Oregon; that would be a fun match to watch. Too bad they fell to that near miracle fifth set come back or they would be in better position to make a run for the conference title. Every week when the futures were posted, it was asked who pSU would lose to, and they lost two already and came close a third time, maybe they are done losing in the Big10, maybe not, maybe they are the team with the best chance to win from here out, but they are also the team that right now needs to in order to keep pace, even if Purdue and Wisky lose one, PSU still can't drop one, without again waiting for another upset so they can pull ahead in the tie break. A lot can change in 12 matches, this season has shown so far it should be interesting. You do realize WI beat IL in 4 at IL...MN twice...NW at NW...and OSU All but IL were swept.
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 21, 2014 9:34:44 GMT -5
And, except for IL, those matches weren't that close. Even in the IL game we really only had problems in that third set. I didn't see where PSU would lose after the UW match, but there you go. UW does have a somewhat stiffer schedule, but I think OSU are more dangerous than people are giving them credit for. Will be interesting to see what happens next week. The Michigans have the potential on a given night to play a lot better than they have so far. I have to say, I'm not sure I understand Nebraska. Maybe they have the same problem!
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