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Post by ay2013 on Oct 27, 2014 15:00:35 GMT -5
Would pose an interesting dilemma for the committee, IF it should unfold as above. Where to seed the only undefeated team, #4 in RPI, but with a head-to-head victory over #1 in RPI? As a previous poster said, an undefeated Washington would be the #1 overall seed, period. Seedings don't go just by RPI ranking, it also takes into consideration wins and losses against top 25 and top 50 opponents. The RPI ranking just gives you a general overview of overall SOS, there is more to the story when it comes to seeds.
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Post by ay2013 on Oct 27, 2014 15:04:50 GMT -5
There are a number of teams from non power league schools represented in solid RPI bid range for this projection. Interesting. The bubble may just be bursting for the power league teams if some of these teams with good RPI's from weak conferences don't win their tournament Auto Bid. Also, I think OSU is in if they have a .500+ record. IMO they will have too many significant wins compared to others on the bubble.
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Post by ay2013 on Oct 27, 2014 15:08:38 GMT -5
the thought of 3 big 12 teams getting seeds is worthy of an eye roll.
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Post by isaacspaceman on Oct 27, 2014 17:54:51 GMT -5
I cringe whenever I see this stuff about "an undefeated Washington would ...." I hope it happens, but with games still remaining against the entire Pac-12 (except Cal), I refuse to expend any emotional energy now on what would happen to their seed if they were undefeated. I choose instead to expend my emotional energy on other things, like worrying about how they'll fare on a Wednesday-Friday trip to LA this week after a Sunday afternoon match.
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Post by tomclen on Oct 27, 2014 18:03:27 GMT -5
Agreed.
UW could easily lose both matches on this road trip. They could easily lose at Hec Ed against Stanford. And you can't guarantee a win at Pullman or at home against Oregon.
I doubt they'll end with 5 losses....but this is not an easy conference.
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Post by redbeard2008 on Oct 27, 2014 18:50:39 GMT -5
I cringe whenever I see this stuff about "an undefeated Washington would ...." I hope it happens, but with games still remaining against the entire Pac-12 (except Cal), I refuse to expend any emotional energy now on what would happen to their seed if they were undefeated. I choose instead to expend my emotional energy on other things, like worrying about how they'll fare on a Wednesday-Friday trip to LA this week after a Sunday afternoon match. Which is why I put IF in all caps and italics - probably should have bolded it as well. Losing a match to USC or UCLA this weekend could actually be beneficial, in that you can learn more from a loss than a win. That's actually what happened in 2005, when they had their only loss (2-3) to UCLA in L.A. on their way to winning the national championship. I was more interested in the seeding conundrum...
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 28, 2014 14:36:49 GMT -5
This could be a very interesting bracket. I could see the Committee doing this: 1. UW 8. Colorado St. 9. Oregon 16. Oklahoma(Seattle) 2. Stanford 7. UNC 10. Illinois 15. Nebraska (Ames) 3. Texas 6. Penn St. 11. Florida 14. K-State (Louisville) 4. FSU 5. Wisconsin 12. UCLA 13. Arizona(Minneapolis) Stanford/Texas could flip, but I didn't want Stanford-PSU in the Elite 8 in Kentucky again. FSU would go to #2 if they win out, this assumes UW>Stanford and UNC>FSU among remaining toss-ups but most everything else at least averaging out into going according to plan. Penn St. will be interesting to seed. Their Nitty Gritty might not bear out them jumping teams with higher RPIs, (see: bad year for B1G RPI), but they'll probably get enough respect to do that and I also predict they win out. Wisconsin scheduled smarter than PSU and can afford to drop a match. The last 2/3 seed lines will be very close. Oklahoma and K-State both scheduled well and have solid profiles. Oklahoma is in bigger need of another good win or two (but that Texas match will do a lot for them). The Big XII has been wild this year though. Kansas and Iowa St. could both play their way into a seed by beating everybody but Texas on their schedules, but they're a bit overrated here and I submit that neither is good enough to do that. Nebraska is in SERIOUS danger of not getting a seed. They only have 1 Top 25 win with tough chances to pick up another ( ill @psu 3 days apart). They will be borderline for a seed losing those two, but if they drop anything else I don't see it. Texas A&M might nab that slot as they have a couple good wins but there's not a lot of meat on that profile and losses to UTSA and Arkansas don't help. Kentucky doesn't have a resume to be in the seeding picture (but they'd sure be a convenient host for bracket purposes, so if they beat Florida and don't get upset they'd have a very high RPI and a lot of wins overall). USC probably needs to go 7-3 the rest of the way to get in the conversation, and would have a much stronger profile than some of the contenders if they did. (6-4, with a win against UW/Stanford, would be very interesting too). Duke would leap Nebraska and the SEC/Big XII contenders at 8-1, and are a sure thing at 9-0 (H2H W against Oklahoma might come into play too). Ohio St. would be in contention at 7-3 and feeling good at 8-2. BYU and Marquette are already out of the game. UCF and Hawaii weren't really in it. Obviously, upsets will change forecasts.
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Post by tomclen on Oct 28, 2014 15:23:50 GMT -5
I'm willing to bet there will be several significant upsets. We're really only halfway through the season.
How big will the crowds be in Minneapolis if Minnesota isn't playing there...and Wisconsin is sent elsewhere.
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Post by FreeBall on Oct 28, 2014 15:26:02 GMT -5
Nebraska is in SERIOUS danger of not getting a seed. They only have 1 Top 25 win with tough chances to pick up another ( ill @psu 3 days apart). They will be borderline for a seed losing those two, but if they drop anything else I don't see it. Assuming Kansas State gets a seed, they are no doubt pulling for Nebraska to put together a strong finish. An unseeded Nebraska would be nearly a lock to get sent to a seeded Kansas State the first weekend of the tournament.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 28, 2014 15:33:26 GMT -5
I'm willing to bet there will be several significant upsets. We're really only halfway through the season. How big will the crowds be in Minneapolis if Minnesota isn't playing there...and Wisconsin is sent elsewhere. But even though there will be upsets to mess up the seed ordering, I feel pretty good about the Top 13 here being seeded teams. I did lay out what I thought needed to happen upset-wise for some of those on the outside looking in. The 2nd-level PAC-12 teams and Illinois have reasonable chances of taking more losses than projected, but they'll still have very strong resumes and would have to have an pretty bad collapses to fall out. The Big XII has been one giant pile of "WTF?" this year, so the teams in question could change but I think 2 of them will emerge as seeds (just because the SEC contenders and mid-majors have weak profiles.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 28, 2014 15:35:16 GMT -5
Nebraska is in SERIOUS danger of not getting a seed. They only have 1 Top 25 win with tough chances to pick up another ( ill @psu 3 days apart). They will be borderline for a seed losing those two, but if they drop anything else I don't see it. Assuming Kansas State gets a seed, they are no doubt pulling for Nebraska to put together a strong finish. An unseeded Nebraska would be nearly a lock to get sent to a seeded Kansas State the first weekend of the tournament. I think you're right. I think K-State's seed would also conveniently land them in the Ames regional.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 28, 2014 16:49:51 GMT -5
I don't see how BYU is 'already out of the game'. They have a (clear) path to a top 16 RPI and WCC Championship. That may not guarantee a seed, but I would think it certainly puts them in the serious conversation for a seed.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 28, 2014 16:54:27 GMT -5
I don't see how BYU is 'already out of the game'. They have a (clear) path to a top 16 RPI and WCC Championship. That may not guarantee a seed, but I would think it certainly puts them in the serious conversation for a seed. If they win out, 0-2 v RPI Top 25, 3-1 v 26-50 (2nd number could jump if one of the mid-level WCC wins out, but if LMU continues it's injury slide it'd be 1-1). That's not even close to a seed resume, regardless of RPI rating.
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Post by baywatcher on Oct 28, 2014 17:02:59 GMT -5
With Washington being the only host seeded this year (probably) the Committee can go ahead and seed how they want, then place entire brackets in regionals that are economically attractive (i.e., Wisconsin in Minnesota, Kentucky in Louisville, etc., even Nebraska in Iowa State)
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Post by gogophers on Oct 28, 2014 17:09:13 GMT -5
How big will the crowds be in Minneapolis if Minnesota isn't playing there...and Wisconsin is sent elsewhere. Minneapolis has its fair share of volleyball enthusiasts. So, probably better than the crowds will be in other regionals without a local connection. For what it's worth, the 2011 regional final in Mpls between FSU and ISU drew (according to the box score) exactly 2000. www.seminoles.com/ViewContent.dbml?&DB_OEM_ID=32900&CONTENT_ID=955488That "exactly" part is suspicious, but I was there, and, if I recall correctly, the crowd was smaller than what the Gophers usually get but not embarrassing. 2000 or so sounds about right. ISU is about 4 hours from the Twin Cities, so that might have helped. I don't remember the crowd being especially pro ISU, but I'm not sure about that.
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