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Post by volleytology on Oct 30, 2014 11:59:19 GMT -5
Texas can't dig or pass at an elite level; and I wouldn't talk about last year right now. I'm talking about the elite teams that can dig and pass at Wisconsin's level AND kill the ball better. Not many like that, but they've lost to two teams THIS year that can. I don't think Purdue is a nationally elite team, so wouldn't put too much stock in how they did there. I think Wisky will go far and hopefully don't meet up with those kinds of teams until the final. Let me explain why I think the Washington coaches will probably be worried about a rematch, so you understand I'm not being a simple minded homer. That match was tight and went to 5 sets in Seattle. Washington won that match on the block, basically, and on our error prone hitting, especially by our freshman left in set 4. You may not be aware, but this badger team is like night and day compared that one with respect to blocking and hitting errors. The badgers have since rather mind-bogglingly become the best blocking team in the big ten, as well as the hardest to block...and they did that during a stretch when they faced each of the other top big physical blocking teams. In fact, you are on a thread where we are discussing a match where UW outblocked one of those big good blocking teams 10-1. Purdue had 15 against Illinois, who, granted, don't seem to feel the need to avoid a block. We've outblocked Nebraska and Minnesota, really good blocking teams that have given PSU fits. Those teams were nowhere near their typical numbers. Sheff learned from that Seattle match and has somehow found a way get our relatively undersized front line to block well against much larger teams...and to avoid being blocked. I realize that Washington has also gotten better, but they have not seen a sea-change like this. Another big difference. We were plagued by hitting errors early in the season in certain sets. Heck, we lost sets to Northern Colorado, FAMU and Missouri St. In this match we had only 2 hitting errors per set -- even better than the 4/set that we average in the B1G, which is well below all other teams. We have become progressively better and more consistent than every other team in the conference in this respect through the season. Purdue is a decent defensive team, but we hit 0.150 better than they typically allow in their own gym. We held them 0.50 under their typical average. Once we decided the clamp down half way through the set we held them 100 points under their typical percentage, and they hit smarter than I remember seeing them. Remember, Purdue took PSU to 5 at Holloway. I can't explain what happened in the PSU match. I think PSU just played better than they have all season, and the badgers let expectation get the better of them until it was too late. But, it feels like that match just kicked a sleeping badger awake, and it is now very grumpy. (OK that was a homer thing to say) Of course Washington would be worried about playing Wisconsin again, they are a bigtime opponent. Wisconsin would be worried about playing Washington again also for the same reason. Hitting for a high hitting pct works well when you are also killing the ball. I'm not sold that Chapman and Bates will be able to kill it against the teams that block AND dig at the ELITE level; that's my one reservation on this team, but again, that would be against basically Penn State, Stanford, Washington and maybe FSU as an outlier. I think they are final four bound and have a great shot at a National championship, IF their pins can kill it against the big boys.
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 30, 2014 12:11:11 GMT -5
I'm not sure. Chappy looked really good this match and she is capable of being better than she has, and Bates has improved substantially and I don't know what her ceiling is. But I see where you are coming from. And I acknowledge c4ndelights opinion as well. We'll see. Long way to go yet.
It's a pain that we can't see Pac-12 matches out here in NY.
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Post by Phillytom on Oct 30, 2014 12:17:08 GMT -5
I'm sure it was defense to some degree, but the comeback was almost all on Carlini's serve. She clearly found a hole in the Purdue serve receive (I didn't see the match, only looking at GT, so I don't know what it was). Or Purdue was passing OK but didn't have a hitter in that rotation, but that seems unlikely. It was a passing problem. This may be unfair, but I'd put that first set loss on the Purdue coaches. They needed to make some adjustment and didn't. Carlini is a good server but it's a location serve, it's not something that can't be passed if you have the right person in the right spot. Usually with her it's a short dying float serve. It can be handled but you have to get under it. Not to take anything away from Wisconsin, which is a superbly coached and led team making the most of its talent, but I think we're finding out that Purdue is not as good as they appeared a couple of weeks ago. This should not be read to mean that the Badgers are unbeatable. The way Ohio State is playing, if I were a Wisky fan I'd be worried about that trip to Columbus more than anything else on the schedule. So...I have to say when we were down 20-14 in set one, I had deja vu with the PSU game. It had the same feeling on the Badger side of the net. It always seems to happen when my wife watches with me. I know some people on here seem to think that Purdue wilted, but what I saw was amazing defensive play by the Badgers from that point on. It was as if a switch went on, and suddenly Morey was in all the right places. That switch was my wife leaving the room to take her turn cooking dinner, so I'm taking credit. Haleigh seemed to be really off tonight, attacking wise. I don't know if they chose to target her, which would seem odd, but she also seemed a little slow. Possibly under the weather a bit.
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 30, 2014 12:28:06 GMT -5
I am worried about three things going forward. OSU in Columbus I agree are dangerous, although I often find them very inconsistent within matches. I worry about the end of this 4 game away leg because of the accumulated stress of travel on the players. And I worry about Illinois at home. I still think we'll win these, but injuries, sickness, whatever can shift the balance in these endeavors.
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Post by Phillytom on Oct 30, 2014 12:33:58 GMT -5
Methinks a little hubris is creeping into the Badger fanbase. When I see "who in the world can beat us" remarks..... Go rewatch the UW-PSU match if you think your team cannot be beaten. Obviously, the Badgers have a great shot to win the B10, and if that doesn't make them an elite team, I don't know what does. But looking further, I wouldn't be surprised if they do not return to the Final Four. They will have matchup problems with big physical teams that can also play floor defense and match their consistency. Texas and Illinois are the kinds of teams tailor-made for Carlini. Penn State, Washington, Stanford would be trouble -- though this is obvious -- those are great teams. Oregon might be trouble. At this point PSU is not on track to get a top four seed but Wisky is. Wouldn't it be cool if the NCAA did what the B10 scheddule makers failed to do -- schedule a second match between Wisky and PSU by putting them in the same regional? What Wisconsin and PSU fan wouldn't be excited to see that? I think you are seriously underestimating the badgers if you don't think they are one of the ELITE teams right now. So we struggled to put the ball down against Texas? PSU in the championship? I think we did well on both accounts. Same team, with an upgraded terminator at the OH2. Oh, by the way, we demolished FSU last year. They have essentially the same team as last year. You may say "what about this year?" To that, we hung in with the number 2 team in the country, early in the season, in their gym. lost in a very close 5. All freshman have gotten better, but since WA and PSU losses, Kelly Bates is night and day. I am a homer, but her numbers the past two weeks don't lie. I was skeptical she'd do it against big blocking teams, but exceeded my expectations against Purdue.
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Post by Wiswell on Oct 30, 2014 12:51:38 GMT -5
Phillytom, I would agree that you are reading a little "hubris." But I wouldn't characterize it as coming from the Badger fanbase.
Personally, I remember all the hype about the 2007 team, and that didn't turn out too well. So, count me out in the hubris category. You know what game I worry about? Indiana. Yep. There will be 27 people there. Indiana plays tough. Badgers have to work hard when you can hear individual conversations in the gym during the match. They definitely like the packed house.
I agree that the Badgers look good. Have they peaked too soon? Will the pressure get to them? Do they have the fitness for a 5-set match? All unanswered questions.
You know what prospect terrifies me the most: Taylor Morey goes down. Chew on that for a while.
I also agree, they do not have a terminating hitter. But they have many hitters. Last night is a good example. Thomas didn't do much, so Chapman and Bates took over. Nelson didn't do much, so Thompson took over. I'd rather have 4 .250 hitters, than 1 .500 hitter.
I am willing to come to a consensus on how Badgers have played in each match, but I am not willing to make predictions about their future season, too much. Badger 2007, Husker 2007 all reasons not too. Heck, even Badger 2009, where they were playing better than expected at 5-5 in the first half of Big Ten and then went 1-9 on the second half.
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Post by Phillytom on Oct 30, 2014 12:55:30 GMT -5
I can't explain what happened in the PSU match. I think PSU just played better than they have all season, and the badgers let expectation get the better of them until it was too late. But, it feels like that match just kicked a sleeping badger awake, and it is now very grumpy. (OK that was a homer thing to say) That was a strange night. Most PSU fans went into that match expecting to lose and not a close match. The Nits -- especially the frosh -- were just playing out of their heads that night. They had no idea what they were doing. And it was too early in the season for Sheff to know the soft spots in the PSU lineup. On the other hand, I wouldn't presume the outcome would be different if they played again. Wisconsin will have difficulty matching up against teams with good size and athleticism that are also good in serve receive and can play consistently enough to win long points. Teams like that do exist; it's just that they haven't seen teams like that this year except for PSU. Nebraska when they're on have what it takes, but Bucky didn't see Nebraska really in form. PSU, when they're settled in (and they are still a work in progress), should be pretty sound in the back row and able to play excellent, low-error defense like they did that night in Madison. So anyway, Badger fans, when they fall into this "nobody can beat us" mindset, should not forget that they're not playing PSU at Rec Hall or Nebraska at Lincoln. That schedule quirk is a great disservice to everybody in volleyball because those would be really fun matches. But it's also a disservice to Wisconsin because this team could use those matches to learn what it needs to learn to deal with elite teams, whom they will probably begin to see starting in the regional final.
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 30, 2014 12:56:04 GMT -5
I just think we should be in the conversation about elite status -- definitely not unbeatable, but any team would not like to see us on their schedule the way we are playing. I agree the PSU match is a blemish, but PSU has simply not performed as well as UW in the interim against some of the same teams.
I would like to see a UW+PSU rematch, and I'm hoping for it. Probably alone in that among other badger fans, but I am guessing the Badger players would want it too, knowing how competitive they are. They will feel cheated if they don't get a chance to redeem themselves.
It would be a pain to have it happen in the regional, though. I would like 2 B1G made to make it to the final 4 again. They are the two most likely at this point. Illinois could I guess, though I am still not convinced by the passing and setting and they do love to hit into a block.
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Post by SportyBucky on Oct 30, 2014 12:57:24 GMT -5
I'm sure it was defense to some degree, but the comeback was almost all on Carlini's serve. She clearly found a hole in the Purdue serve receive (I didn't see the match, only looking at GT, so I don't know what it was). Or Purdue was passing OK but didn't have a hitter in that rotation, but that seems unlikely. It was a passing problem. This may be unfair, but I'd put that first set loss on the Purdue coaches. They needed to make some adjustment and didn't. Carlini is a good server but it's a location serve, it's not something that can't be passed if you have the right person in the right spot. Usually with her it's a short dying float serve. It can be handled but you have to get under it. Not to take anything away from Wisconsin, which is a superbly coached and led team making the most of its talent, but I think we're finding out that Purdue is not as good as they appeared a couple of weeks ago. This should not be read to mean that the Badgers are unbeatable. The way Ohio State is playing, if I were a Wisky fan I'd be worried about that trip to Columbus more than anything else on the schedule. So...I have to say when we were down 20-14 in set one, I had deja vu with the PSU game. It had the same feeling on the Badger side of the net. It always seems to happen when my wife watches with me. I know some people on here seem to think that Purdue wilted, but what I saw was amazing defensive play by the Badgers from that point on. It was as if a switch went on, and suddenly Morey was in all the right places. That switch was my wife leaving the room to take her turn cooking dinner, so I'm taking credit. Haleigh seemed to be really off tonight, attacking wise. I don't know if they chose to target her, which would seem odd, but she also seemed a little slow. Possibly under the weather a bit. Carlini does have the second most aces per set in the Big Ten. That's not an easy serve to pass regardless of where you are on the court.
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Post by Phillytom on Oct 30, 2014 12:58:17 GMT -5
You are wise. And truly, I'm not counting out Wisconsin from anything including an NCAA championship, because they are well coached, well led and work extremely hard. Interesting comment about Indiana. I think Ohio State is a very interesting team as well. They could match up well with the Badgers and play really tough at home (as PSU is going to see Friday). Phillytom, I would agree that you are reading a little "hubris." But I wouldn't characterize it as coming from the Badger fanbase. Personally, I remember all the hype about the 2007 team, and that didn't turn out too well. So, count me out in the hubris category. You know what game I worry about? Indiana. Yep. There will be 27 people there. Indiana plays tough. Badgers have to work hard when you can hear individual conversations in the gym during the match. They definitely like the packed house.
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Post by SportyBucky on Oct 30, 2014 13:04:52 GMT -5
I can't explain what happened in the PSU match. I think PSU just played better than they have all season, and the badgers let expectation get the better of them until it was too late. But, it feels like that match just kicked a sleeping badger awake, and it is now very grumpy. (OK that was a homer thing to say) That was a strange night. Most PSU fans went into that match expecting to lose and not a close match. The Nits -- especially the frosh -- were just playing out of their heads that night. They had no idea what they were doing. And it was too early in the season for Sheff to know the soft spots in the PSU lineup. On the other hand, I wouldn't presume the outcome would be different if they played again. Wisconsin will have difficulty matching up against teams with good size and athleticism that are also good in serve receive and can play consistently enough to win long points. Teams like that do exist; it's just that they haven't seen teams like that this year except for PSU. Nebraska when they're on have what it takes, but Bucky didn't see Nebraska really in form. PSU, when they're settled in (and they are still a work in progress), should be pretty sound in the back row and able to play excellent, low-error defense like they did that night in Madison. So anyway, Badger fans, when they fall into this "nobody can beat us" mindset, should not forget that they're not playing PSU at Rec Hall or Nebraska at Lincoln. That schedule quirk is a great disservice to everybody in volleyball because those would be really fun matches. But it's also a disservice to Wisconsin because this team could use those matches to learn what it needs to learn to deal with elite teams, whom they will probably begin to see starting in the regional final. Stanford is one of those teams. Washington, although to a lesser degree because their passing and D isn't as good, is one of those teams. Texas is not. FSU is not. I am not saying they'll win it all, but there aren't many teams that truly can play above the Badgers, both literally and figuratively. We can most certainly have a stinker like we did against PSU...but PSU played lights out until the third set. The fun part is no one knows what will happen, which makes it all the most exciting to watch. I, for one, thought WI was vulnerable against PSU because of Val Nichols and their relatively balanced attacked and huge block, but after 14-21, I was proven wrong. Block has arrived...hitter selection has proven itself better. I do think unless you've seen WI play the last couple (6) matches, you haven't seen it all.
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 30, 2014 13:56:41 GMT -5
I think everyone is talking past each other. The pushback from me is about an implicit assumption in some comments, based presumably on history and on the stature of the front line, that the badgers are an undersized, underpowered team playing over their heads and likely to be revealed as such when they play a truly strong well rounded physical opponent. I simply don't think that assumption is true anymore - I just don't see evidence for it on the court right now. UW'd give those top teams a real match and I think they would have a reasonable expectation of winning. Certainly more than I had before we played Texas last year. I don't think it is hubris to say so - though it may be bad luck. I'm also not really sure how good a chance we'd have, or if we'd be favored. The team has progressed so much, as have the other top teams. Would depend on the matchup I think. We could have a stinker as well, as could any team really.
It could very well be that I am reading into some comments a little too much, but I don't think so.
Gobucky, I actually agree about Indiana...but I don't see them losing the match. Could drop a set though. The consecutive sets won streak doesn't really matter to me. Iowa is another trap match, but I don't see us losing it either.
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 30, 2014 14:03:52 GMT -5
I am actually having a hard time locating a place in this thread where anyone said "who could beat us." There were a lot of happy people after the match, but that is natural. Tough place to go away...ask PSU.
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Post by Wiswell on Oct 30, 2014 15:23:15 GMT -5
Looking at Wisconsins remaining schedule I think they should win the B1G they are the picture of consistency and resilience coming back to win sets and even when they are down they don't give up. I am still so confused about what happened with PSU is it mental for them or the pressure of the match. I wish they would play them again. Badger breath I think this is an example. Also MTC likes to say it all the time. And a few others have as well. But none of "us" as it were. Personally, I don't see your comments as hubris, just enthusiasm for what you are seeing, and well-researched. Nothing wrong with that. So my "hubris" comment wasn't directed at you. Oh, and keep your wife away from the TV. And I'll keep wearing my red or reddish turtlenecks (turns out two of them "work.") And I don't know what Rainbow Badger does, but keep doing it...
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Post by rainbowbadger on Oct 30, 2014 15:35:18 GMT -5
Looking at Wisconsins remaining schedule I think they should win the B1G they are the picture of consistency and resilience coming back to win sets and even when they are down they don't give up. I am still so confused about what happened with PSU is it mental for them or the pressure of the match. I wish they would play them again. Badger breath I think this is an example. Also MTC likes to say it all the time. And a few others have as well. But none of "us" as it were. Personally, I don't see your comments as hubris, just enthusiasm for what you are seeing, and well-researched. Nothing wrong with that. So my "hubris" comment wasn't directed at you. Oh, and keep your wife away from the TV. And I'll keep wearing my red or reddish turtlenecks (turns out two of them "work.") And I don't know what Rainbow Badger does, but keep doing it... For the Minnesota Wednesday match, we ordered pizza and had beverages while we watched the match. Last night we decided it was delivery that was lucky in general, so it was Chinese. And libations. Seems to be working.
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