RPI Futures Week 4

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a projected season ending RPI based on the win probabilities for the remaining games on the schedule using the current Pablo rating.

Starting this week - I have included some projected bonus/penalty points from non conference scheduling and projected adjustments on games that have already been played. The following teams are projected to get the bonus points for scheduling: Illinois, Stanford, Wisconsin, Louisville, Creighton, North Carolina, and Utah.

Below is this Week's projected RPI followed by LW's RPI.  Projected overall record and conference record and SOS at the end.

1. (1) Florida (26-2, 17-1) (6)
2. (2) Texas (24-3, 14-2) (9)
3. (5) Kansas (26-2, 14-2) (40)
4. (3) UCLA (25-5, 16-4) (8)
5. (9) Illinois (26-5, 17-3) (17)
6. (7) USC (28-4, 16-4) (39)
7. (4) Penn State (28-3, 17-3) (53)
8. (14) Stanford (22-6, 16-4) (22)
9. (10) BYU (27-2, 17-1) (75)
10. (22) Minnesota (21-9, 13-7) (2)
11. (8) Washington (26-4, 16-4) (62)
12. (11) Arkansas State (24-2, 15-1) (94)
13. (12) Nebraska (23-7, 14-6) (25)
14. (17) Missouri (26-5, 13-5) (44)
15. (6) Ohio State (23-9, 12-8) (12)
16. (19) Arizona State (24-7, 13-7) (27)
17. (24) Western Kentucky (28-3, 15-1) (88)
18. (16) Wisconsin (21-9, 13-7) (14)
19. (18) Marquette (25-6, 16-2) (47)
20. (15) SMU (29-3, 19-1) (101)
21. (40) Texas A&M (19-10, 12-6) (7)
22. (30) Louisville (22-8, 16-4) (38)
23. (50) Kentucky (20-10, 13-5) (15)
24. (23) Florida State (24-7, 17-3) (70)
25. (43) Arkansas (22-8, 12-6) (48)
26. (13) Michigan (20-11, 10-10) (11)
27. (20) Rice (24-6, 14-2) (76)
28. (48) Creighton (21-10, 15-3) (29)
29. (37) Ohio (26-4, 16-0) (141)
30. (29) San Francisco (24-7, 11-7) (78)
31. (36) Baylor (18-12, 7-9) (10)
32. (33) Wyoming (25-5, 15-3) (120)
33. (27) Hawaii (24-3, 14-2) (171)
34. (38) Iowa State (16-12, 8-8) (3)
35. (28) Arizona (21-11, 11-9) (31)
36. (31) Missouri State (22-9, 13-5) (65)
37. (67) Dayton (22-8, 12-2) (69)
38. (51) Wichita State (23-9, 14-4) (73)
39. (26) Pacific (21-9, 11-7) (60)
40. (64) Boise State (23-7, 15-3) (102)
41. (32) Northwestern (16-15, 8-12) (1)
42. (49) Southern Illinois (21-10, 12-6) (63)
43. (78) North Carolina (17-12, 14-6) (24)
44. (45) Gonzaga (19-12, 10-8) (32)
45. (60) Northern Arizona (23-6, 13-3) (127)
46. (34) Pittsburgh (23-9, 13-7) (85)
47. (44) Iowa (18-15, 8-12) (13)
48. (35) Miami-FL (20-10, 13-7) (54)
49. (53) Idaho State (21-9, 13-3) (84)
50. (21) Kansas State (16-12, 8-8) (26)
51. (25) San Diego (17-13, 10-8) (18)
52. (42) Colorado State (23-6, 15-3) (132)
53. (98) Loyola Marymount (17-13, 8-10) (28)
54. (56) Virginia Tech (21-11, 12-8) (68)
55. (61) TCU (18-10, 8-8) (66)
56. (39) Illinois State (23-8, 13-5) (110)
57. (66) Purdue (19-12, 10-10) (42)
58. (52) UNC Wilmington (22-6, 13-3) (147)
59. (92) Michigan State (17-14, 9-11) (30)
60. (69) UCF (21-11, 15-5) (79)
61. (77) North Dakota State (23-7, 13-3) (137)
62. (87) Villanova (22-9, 12-6) (98)
63. (95) Virginia (19-12, 11-9) (50)
64. (63) Murray State (26-1, 16-0) (281)
65. (134) Chattanooga (25-4, 14-2) (237)
66. (54) Tennessee (25-8, 11-7) (146)
67. (47) Oregon (14-15, 8-12) (16)
68. (65) Texas-San Antonio (21-9, 12-4) (122)
69. (80) Santa Clara (18-12, 9-9) (56)
70. (57) Towson (26-5, 12-4) (227)
71. (71) Oklahoma (12-16, 6-10) (5)
72. (82) Texas-Arlington (21-7, 12-4) (157)
73. (94) Cleveland State (24-6, 13-3) (193)
74. (70) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (27-5, 15-1) (216)
75. (58) Cincinnati (22-9, 14-6) (128)
76. (133) North Texas (19-12, 11-5) (77)
77. (91) Saint Louis (21-9, 11-3) (119)
78. (85) Washington State (18-14, 7-13) (57)
79. (103) Sacramento State (25-6, 12-4) (221)
80. (55) Syracuse (21-10, 12-8) (109)
81. (73) Loyola-Chicago (21-9, 11-7) (126)
82. (96) Denver (26-6, 14-2) (233)
83. (74) Appalachian State (20-7, 13-3) (167)
84. (90) James Madison (21-8, 11-5) (155)
85. (99) Rhode Island (20-7, 10-4) (160)
86. (46) Lipscomb (20-9, 12-2) (118)
87. (83) Long Beach State (23-8, 12-4) (172)
88. (105) New Mexico State (24-7, 13-1) (220)
89. (110) Indiana (16-16, 6-14) (35)
90. (75) American (25-6, 15-1) (238)
91. (102) Northern Iowa (17-14, 11-7) (49)
92. (93) George Washington (21-9, 11-3) (159)
93. (41) Pepperdine (15-16, 6-12) (33)
94. (59) Temple (22-10, 13-7) (145)
95. (142) UC Irvine (17-11, 11-5) (93)
96. (68) St. Johns (20-13, 10-8) (96)
97. (104) Coastal Carolina (21-5, 13-1) (263)
98. (111) Delaware (18-11, 10-6) (112)
99. (113) NC State (20-12, 9-11) (117)
100. (72) Ole Miss (22-11, 8-10) (135)
101. (62) Duke (15-15, 10-10) (52)
102. (120) Cal Poly (20-7, 12-4) (215)
103. (140) Miami-OH (21-8, 13-3) (190)
104. (76) Florida Atlantic (17-11, 9-7) (103)
105. (108) Furman (18-8, 12-4) (174)
106. (101) Colorado (14-18, 6-14) (36)
107. (106) Yale (18-6, 12-2) (223)
108. (79) Auburn (14-16, 6-12) (43)
109. (125) College of Charleston (18-12, 10-6) (108)
110. (144) IUPUI (21-9, 12-4) (213)

[ay2013]

Sept 21, 2015 20:47:47 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

RPI Futures is a projected season ending RPI based on the win probabilities for the remaining games on the schedule using the current Pablo rating.

Starting this week - I have included some projected bonus/penalty points from non conference scheduling and projected adjustments on games that have already been played. The following teams are projected to get the bonus points for scheduling: Illinois, Stanford, Wisconsin, Louisville, Creighton, North Carolina, and Utah.

Below is this Week's projected RPI followed by LW's RPI.  Projected overall record and conference record and SOS at the end.

1. (1) Florida (26-2, 17-1) (6)
2. (2) Texas (24-3, 14-2) (9)
3. (5) Kansas (26-2, 14-2) (40)
4. (3) UCLA (25-5, 16-4) (8)
5. (9) Illinois (26-5, 17-3) (17)
6. (7) USC (28-4, 16-4) (39)
7. (4) Penn State (28-3, 17-3) (53)
8. (14) Stanford (22-6, 16-4) (22)
9. (10) BYU (27-2, 17-1) (75)
10. (22) Minnesota (21-9, 13-7) (2)
11. (8) Washington (26-4, 16-4) (62)
12. (11) Arkansas State (24-2, 15-1) (94)
13. (12) Nebraska (23-7, 14-6) (25)
14. (17) Missouri (26-5, 13-5) (44)
15. (6) Ohio State (23-9, 12-8) (12)
16. (19) Arizona State (24-7, 13-7) (27)
17. (24) Western Kentucky (28-3, 15-1) (88)
18. (16) Wisconsin (21-9, 13-7) (14)
19. (18) Marquette (25-6, 16-2) (47)
20. (15) SMU (29-3, 19-1) (101)
21. (40) Texas A&M (19-10, 12-6) (7)
22. (30) Louisville (22-8, 16-4) (38)
23. (50) Kentucky (20-10, 13-5) (15)
24. (23) Florida State (24-7, 17-3) (70)
25. (43) Arkansas (22-8, 12-6) (48)
26. (13) Michigan (20-11, 10-10) (11)
27. (20) Rice (24-6, 14-2) (76)
28. (48) Creighton (21-10, 15-3) (29)
29. (37) Ohio (26-4, 16-0) (141)
30. (29) San Francisco (24-7, 11-7) (78)
31. (36) Baylor (18-12, 7-9) (10)
32. (33) Wyoming (25-5, 15-3) (120)
33. (27) Hawaii (24-3, 14-2) (171)
34. (38) Iowa State (16-12, 8-8) (3)
35. (28) Arizona (21-11, 11-9) (31)
36. (31) Missouri State (22-9, 13-5) (65)
37. (67) Dayton (22-8, 12-2) (69)
38. (51) Wichita State (23-9, 14-4) (73)
39. (26) Pacific (21-9, 11-7) (60)
40. (64) Boise State (23-7, 15-3) (102)
41. (32) Northwestern (16-15, 8-12) (1)
42. (49) Southern Illinois (21-10, 12-6) (63)
43. (78) North Carolina (17-12, 14-6) (24)
44. (45) Gonzaga (19-12, 10-8) (32)
45. (60) Northern Arizona (23-6, 13-3) (127)
46. (34) Pittsburgh (23-9, 13-7) (85)
47. (44) Iowa (18-15, 8-12) (13)
48. (35) Miami-FL (20-10, 13-7) (54)
49. (53) Idaho State (21-9, 13-3) (84)
50. (21) Kansas State (16-12, 8-8) (26)
51. (25) San Diego (17-13, 10-8) (18)
52. (42) Colorado State (23-6, 15-3) (132)
53. (98) Loyola Marymount (17-13, 8-10) (28)
54. (56) Virginia Tech (21-11, 12-8) (68)
55. (61) TCU (18-10, 8-8) (66)
56. (39) Illinois State (23-8, 13-5) (110)
57. (66) Purdue (19-12, 10-10) (42)
58. (52) UNC Wilmington (22-6, 13-3) (147)
59. (92) Michigan State (17-14, 9-11) (30)
60. (69) UCF (21-11, 15-5) (79)
61. (77) North Dakota State (23-7, 13-3) (137)
62. (87) Villanova (22-9, 12-6) (98)
63. (95) Virginia (19-12, 11-9) (50)
64. (63) Murray State (26-1, 16-0) (281)
65. (134) Chattanooga (25-4, 14-2) (237)
66. (54) Tennessee (25-8, 11-7) (146)
67. (47) Oregon (14-15, 8-12) (16)
68. (65) Texas-San Antonio (21-9, 12-4) (122)
69. (80) Santa Clara (18-12, 9-9) (56)
70. (57) Towson (26-5, 12-4) (227)
71. (71) Oklahoma (12-16, 6-10) (5)
72. (82) Texas-Arlington (21-7, 12-4) (157)
73. (94) Cleveland State (24-6, 13-3) (193)
74. (70) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (27-5, 15-1) (216)
75. (58) Cincinnati (22-9, 14-6) (128)
76. (133) North Texas (19-12, 11-5) (77)
77. (91) Saint Louis (21-9, 11-3) (119)
78. (85) Washington State (18-14, 7-13) (57)
79. (103) Sacramento State (25-6, 12-4) (221)
80. (55) Syracuse (21-10, 12-8) (109)
81. (73) Loyola-Chicago (21-9, 11-7) (126)
82. (96) Denver (26-6, 14-2) (233)
83. (74) Appalachian State (20-7, 13-3) (167)
84. (90) James Madison (21-8, 11-5) (155)
85. (99) Rhode Island (20-7, 10-4) (160)
86. (46) Lipscomb (20-9, 12-2) (118)
87. (83) Long Beach State (23-8, 12-4) (172)
88. (105) New Mexico State (24-7, 13-1) (220)
89. (110) Indiana (16-16, 6-14) (35)
90. (75) American (25-6, 15-1) (238)
91. (102) Northern Iowa (17-14, 11-7) (49)
92. (93) George Washington (21-9, 11-3) (159)
93. (41) Pepperdine (15-16, 6-12) (33)
94. (59) Temple (22-10, 13-7) (145)
95. (142) UC Irvine (17-11, 11-5) (93)
96. (68) St. Johns (20-13, 10-8) (96)
97. (104) Coastal Carolina (21-5, 13-1) (263)
98. (111) Delaware (18-11, 10-6) (112)
99. (113) NC State (20-12, 9-11) (117)
100. (72) Ole Miss (22-11, 8-10) (135)
101. (62) Duke (15-15, 10-10) (52)
102. (120) Cal Poly (20-7, 12-4) (215)
103. (140) Miami-OH (21-8, 13-3) (190)
104. (76) Florida Atlantic (17-11, 9-7) (103)
105. (108) Furman (18-8, 12-4) (174)
106. (101) Colorado (14-18, 6-14) (36)
107. (106) Yale (18-6, 12-2) (223)
108. (79) Auburn (14-16, 6-12) (43)
109. (125) College of Charleston (18-12, 10-6) (108)
110. (144) IUPUI (21-9, 12-4) (213)

Do I see correctly that Northwestern is projected to have the highest SOS? interesting.....and Purdue on the big bubble for not making the tournament again?

[ay2013]

That is quite an interesting Pac-12 projection....

In conference, of the teams vying for a tournament bid

Washington- 4 losses
Stanford- 4 losses
USC- 4 losses
UCLA- 4 losses
ASU- 7 losses
Arizona- 11 losses
Oregon- 12 losses

I mean, I know you are using a Pablo based projection model, but this would be quite the year.

[bluepenquin]

Sept 21, 2015 21:21:37 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

That is quite an interesting Pac-12 projection....

In conference, of the teams vying for a tournament bid

Washington- 4 losses
Stanford- 4 losses
USC- 4 losses
UCLA- 4 losses
ASU- 7 losses
Arizona- 11 losses
Oregon- 12 losses

I mean, I know you are using a Pablo based projection model, but this would be quite the year.

The Pac-12 weekly post has the projection with Washington, USC, & UCLA with 5 losses - Stanford 6, ASU 8, Arizona 9, and Oregon 10.  Mike is using the same information, but a slightly different table conversion.  I believe he is using 1,000 base - what I used here gives a slight premium to the higher rated teams relative to 1,000, thus the difference.  Plus there is a whole lot of rounding going on.

[ay2013]

Sept 21, 2015 21:47:06 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Sept 21, 2015 21:21:37 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

That is quite an interesting Pac-12 projection....

In conference, of the teams vying for a tournament bid

Washington- 4 losses
Stanford- 4 losses
USC- 4 losses
UCLA- 4 losses
ASU- 7 losses
Arizona- 11 losses
Oregon- 12 losses

I mean, I know you are using a Pablo based projection model, but this would be quite the year.

The Pac-12 weekly post has the projection with Washington, USC, & UCLA with 5 losses - Stanford 6, ASU 8, Arizona 9, and Oregon 10.  Mike is using the same information, but a slightly different table conversion.  I believe he is using 1,000 base - what I used here gives a slight premium to the higher rated teams relative to 1,000, thus the difference.  Plus there is a whole lot of rounding going on.

Oh, I know, but, still, that would be a wild finish.

[bluepenquin]

Sept 21, 2015 21:14:20 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Sept 21, 2015 20:47:47 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Do I see correctly that Northwestern is projected to have the highest SOS? interesting.....and Purdue on the big bubble for not making the tournament again?

Correct for Northwestern.  Their preseason SOS was #11 and moved up to number #1 last week on the strength of a strong week by the B1G in week 3.

Yes - this projection does show Purdue on the bubble, but mostly because the Big 10 is much stronger/deeper this year.  Last year they were 12-8 in conference and missed the tournament.  This projection only shows them going 10-10.  If Purdue wins 12 conference games this year, they will easily make the tournament.  They win 15 then they are in the seed discussion. 

[ay2013]

Sept 21, 2015 21:55:45 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Sept 21, 2015 21:14:20 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Do I see correctly that Northwestern is projected to have the highest SOS? interesting.....and Purdue on the big bubble for not making the tournament again?

Correct for Northwestern.  Their preseason SOS was #11 and moved up to number #1 last week on the strength of a strong week by the B1G in week 3.

Yes - this projection does show Purdue on the bubble, but mostly because the Big 10 is much stronger/deeper this year.  Last year they were 12-8 in conference and missed the tournament.  This projection only shows them going 10-10.  If Purdue wins 12 conference games this year, they will easily make the tournament.  They win 15 then they are in the seed discussion. 

Yeah, I do think Purdue can get to 12+ wins, especially considering they only play Nebraska and Penn State once.

[bluepenquin]

Sept 21, 2015 21:48:20 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Sept 21, 2015 21:47:06 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

The Pac-12 weekly post has the projection with Washington, USC, & UCLA with 5 losses - Stanford 6, ASU 8, Arizona 9, and Oregon 10.  Mike is using the same information, but a slightly different table conversion.  I believe he is using 1,000 base - what I used here gives a slight premium to the higher rated teams relative to 1,000, thus the difference.  Plus there is a whole lot of rounding going on.

Oh, I know, but, still, that would be a wild finish.

Projection systems will regress towards the mean - I am not smart enough to do the math, but I would think it is more likely than not that someone in the PAC will win 18 games due to random variation. The Pac 12 looks very interesting this year - not nearly as deep as last year, but the top 7 could make it pretty fun.

[c4ndlelight]

Sept 21, 2015 21:21:37 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

That is quite an interesting Pac-12 projection....

In conference, of the teams vying for a tournament bid

Washington- 4 losses
Stanford- 4 losses
USC- 4 losses
UCLA- 4 losses
ASU- 7 losses
Arizona- 11 losses
Oregon- 12 losses

I mean, I know you are using a Pablo based projection model, but this would be quite the year.

If Oregon takes 12 losses in conference, please pray for my liver.

[BoilerUp!]

"Yes - this projection does show Purdue on the bubble, but mostly because the Big 10 is much stronger/deeper this year.  Last year they were 12-8 in conference and missed the tournament.  This projection only shows them going 10-10.  If Purdue wins 12 conference games this year, they will easily make the tournament.  They win 15 then they are in the seed discussion. "]

So, if a match shows up yellow on richkern as a "good win", does that mean Purdue was supposed to lose to Michigan & MSU on the road, because of HCA? Were those 2 of the projected 10 losses?

I can't sleep....

[BoilerUp!]

I can't edit either.

[bluepenquin]

Sept 26, 2015 23:23:31 GMT -5 BoilerUp! said:

"Yes - this projection does show Purdue on the bubble, but mostly because the Big 10 is much stronger/deeper this year.  Last year they were 12-8 in conference and missed the tournament.  This projection only shows them going 10-10.  If Purdue wins 12 conference games this year, they will easily make the tournament.  They win 15 then they are in the seed discussion. "]

So, if a match shows up yellow on richkern as a "good win", does that mean Purdue was supposed to lose to Michigan & MSU on the road, because of HCA? Were those 2 of the projected 10 losses?

I can't sleep....

They actually picked up 1.3 wins as they were projected to win 0.7 against the Michigan schools (I know, that literally doesn't make sense).  They are now 'projected' to go 11-9 in conference (11.14 wins to be exact), but I would expect that to go up some with an improved Pablo rating on Monday.  Obviously a very good weekend for Purdue.

[BoilerUp!]

Thank you for explaining in detail!

That is so cool.

[ay2013]

Sept 27, 2015 12:48:33 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Sept 26, 2015 23:23:31 GMT -5 BoilerUp! said:

"Yes - this projection does show Purdue on the bubble, but mostly because the Big 10 is much stronger/deeper this year.  Last year they were 12-8 in conference and missed the tournament.  This projection only shows them going 10-10.  If Purdue wins 12 conference games this year, they will easily make the tournament.  They win 15 then they are in the seed discussion. "]

So, if a match shows up yellow on richkern as a "good win", does that mean Purdue was supposed to lose to Michigan & MSU on the road, because of HCA? Were those 2 of the projected 10 losses?

I can't sleep....

They actually picked up 1.3 wins as they were projected to win 0.7 against the Michigan schools (I know, that literally doesn't make sense).  They are now 'projected' to go 11-9 in conference (11.14 wins to be exact), but I would expect that to go up some with an improved Pablo rating on Monday.  Obviously a very good weekend for Purdue.

Yes, The Michigan road swing was a big barometer for that tournament bubble for Purdue.

[ay2013]

I'm hoping the Pac-12 can stay top heavy. I think a weaker non conference SOS and lackluster results against that schedule will probably have the Pac-12 max out at 7 bids for the tournament. Would be great if we could maximize the conference teams getting seeds (USC, UCLA, Stanford, ASU, Washington)