RPI Futures Week 5 (thru 9/27)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a projected season ending RPI based on the win probabilities for the remaining games on the schedule using the current Pablo rating.  This includes projected adjustments on games completed and overall non conference schedule.

Teams projected to receive scheduling bonus: Illinois, Louisville, Stanford, Creighton, Wisconsin, Marquette, Texas A&M, North Carolina, & Utah.

Noted Teams to receive a scheduling penalty:  Pittsburgh, UNCW, San Francisco, Villanova, & Temple

Projected RPI rank after adjustments. (PW RPI rank) Team (projected overall wins and losses, Projected Conference Wins & Losses) (SOS Rank) - RPI Rank before Adjustments

1. (1) Florida (25-3, 16-2) (2) - 1
2. (2) Texas (25-2, 15-1) (11) - 2
3. (6) USC (31-1, 19-1) (39) - 3
4. (3) Kansas (26-2, 14-2) (38) - 4
5. (7) Penn State (29-2, 18-2) (45) - 5
6. (4) UCLA (23-7, 14-6) (9) - 6
7. (5) Illinois (25-6, 16-4) (17) - 9
8. (13) Nebraska (25-5, 16-4) (21) - 7
9. (10) Minnesota (23-7, 15-5) (5) - 8
10. (23) Kentucky (23-7, 16-2) (8) - 10
11. (16) Arizona State (25-6, 14-6) (30) - 13
12. (12) Arkansas State (24-2, 15-1) (89) - 12
13. (11) Washington (27-3, 17-3) (64) - 11
14. (15) Ohio State (23-9, 12-8) (13) - 16
15. (9) BYU (25-4, 15-3) (63) - 15
16. (17) Western Kentucky (28-3, 15-1) (82) - 14
17. (22) Louisville (24-6, 18-2) (41) - 18
18. (14) Missouri (25-6, 13-5) (48) - 17
19. (25) Arkansas (24-6, 14-4) (58) - 19
20. (8) Stanford (20-8, 14-6) (25) - 23
21. (28) Creighton (22-9, 16-2) (20) - 22
22. (20) SMU (28-4, 18-2) (105) - 20
23. (24) Florida State (25-6, 18-2) (60) - 21
24. (18) Wisconsin (19-11, 11-9) (10) - 25
25. (33) Hawaii (26-1, 16-0) (162) - 24
26. (19) Marquette (23-8, 14-4) (42) - 26
27. (26) Michigan (20-11, 10-10) (16) - 28
28. (32) Wyoming (26-4, 16-2) (119) - 31
29. (29) Ohio (26-4, 16-0) (128) - 29
30. (36) Missouri State (23-8, 14-4) (65) - 30
31. (27) Rice (24-6, 14-2) (81) - 27
32. (31) Baylor (18-12, 6-10) (12) - 32
33. (21) Texas A&M (17-12, 10-8) (6) - 38
34. (38) Wichita State (24-8, 15-3) (78) - 35
35. (51) San Diego (20-10, 13-5) (28) - 33
36. (35) Arizona (21-11, 11-9) (33) - 36
37. (34) Iowa State (16-12, 9-7) (7) - 37
38. (41) Northwestern (16-15, 8-12) (1) - 34
39. (39) Pacific (21-9, 12-6) (55) - 40
40. (46) Pittsburgh (25-7, 15-5) (98) - 39
41. (57) Purdue (21-10, 12-8) (54) - 42
42. (37) Dayton (21-9, 12-2) (69) - 41
43. (44) Gonzaga (20-11, 11-7) (37) - 43
44. (48) Miami-FL (20-10, 13-7) (47) - 44
45. (49) Idaho State (21-9, 13-3) (77) - 45
46. (50) Kansas State (17-11, 9-7) (26) - 46
47. (43) North Carolina (17-12, 14-6) (27) - 50
48. (69) Santa Clara (19-11, 10-8) (50) - 47
49. (77) Saint Louis (23-7, 12-2) (111) - 48
50. (47) Iowa (17-16, 7-13) (15) - 51
51. (52) Colorado State (23-6, 15-3) (131) - 49
52. (58) UNC Wilmington (23-5, 14-2) (167) - 53
53. (30) San Francisco (21-10, 8-10) (72) - 52
54. (67) Oregon (15-14, 9-11) (18) - 54
55. (62) Villanova (22-9, 12-6) (87) - 55
56. (42) Southern Illinois (20-11, 11-7) (68) - 56
57. (45) Northern Arizona (22-7, 12-4) (129) - 57
58. (86) Lipscomb (20-9, 12-2) (99) - 58
59. (55) TCU (18-10, 8-8) (71) - 59
60. (94) Temple (25-7, 16-4) (144) - 60
61. (65) Chattanooga (26-3, 15-1) (239) - 61
62. (68) Texas-San Antonio (22-8, 13-3) (126) - 62
63. (40) Boise State (21-9, 13-5) (108) - 63
64. (114) Xavier (17-12, 13-5) (51) - 65
65. (59) Michigan State (16-15, 8-12) (29) - 68
66. (79) Sacramento State (26-5, 13-3) (223) - 66
67. (53) Loyola Marymount (15-15, 6-12) (24) - 74
68. (80) Syracuse (22-9, 13-7) (117) - 69
69. (63) Virginia (19-12, 11-9) (57) - 67
70. (93) Pepperdine (16-15, 7-11) (31) - 70
71. (84) James Madison (23-6, 13-3) (165) - 64
72. (64) Murray State (26-1, 16-0) (292) - 72
73. (108) Auburn (16-14, 8-10) (35) - 75
74. (91) Northern Iowa (17-14, 11-7) (40) - 76
75. (70) Towson (26-5, 12-4) (227) - 77
76. (56) Illinois State (21-10, 11-7) (109) - 79
77. (73) Cleveland State (24-6, 13-3) (210) - 73
78. (81) Loyola-Chicago (22-8, 12-6) (125) - 71
79. (71) Oklahoma (12-16, 6-10) (3) - 80
80. (83) Appalachian State (21-6, 14-2) (171) - 81
81. (96) St. Johns (22-11, 12-6) (101) - 82
82. (85) Rhode Island (20-7, 10-4) (151) - 78
83. (54) Virginia Tech (19-13, 10-10) (76) - 84
84. (87) Long Beach State (24-7, 13-3) (185) - 83
85. (61) North Dakota State (21-9, 12-4) (142) - 88
86. (105) Furman (19-7, 13-3) (176) - 85
87. (97) Coastal Carolina (22-4, 14-0) (250) - 86
88. (75) Cincinnati (21-10, 13-7) (113) - 87
89. (72) Texas-Arlington (20-8, 11-5) (159) - 90
90. (90) American (25-6, 15-1) (228) - 92
91. (74) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (26-6, 14-2) (233) - 89
92. (104) Florida Atlantic (18-10, 10-6) (100) - 91
93. (88) New Mexico State (25-6, 13-1) (238) - 95
94. (66) Tennessee (23-10, 9-9) (150) - 93
95. (60) UCF (19-13, 13-7) (85) - 94
96. (110) IUPUI (23-7, 14-2) (216) - 98
97. (82) Denver (25-7, 13-3) (240) - 97
98. (111) LSU (12-17, 8-10) (14) - 99
99. (76) North Texas (17-14, 9-7) (80) - 100
100. (78) Washington State (18-14, 7-13) (67) - 96
101. (107) Yale (18-6, 12-2) (244) - 102
102. (115) New Mexico (18-13, 10-8) (97) - 103
103. (92) George Washington (20-10, 10-4) (163) - 104
104. (131) Arkansas-Little Rock (15-11, 11-5) (104) - 105
105. (103) Miami-OH (21-8, 13-3) (200) - 101
106. (120) Kennesaw State (17-8, 9-5) (196) - 106
107. (102) Cal Poly (19-8, 11-5) (213) - 107
108. (138) Northern Illinois (17-11, 13-3) (124) - 108
109. (116) Florida Gulf Coast (20-11, 9-5) (148) - 109
110. (109) College of Charleston (17-13, 9-7) (112) - 110
111. (122) Indiana State (19-14, 8-10) (114) - 112
112. (89) Indiana (14-18, 4-16) (43) - 113
113. (125) Valparaiso (26-6, 12-4) (287) - 114
114. (101) Duke (14-16, 9-11) (52) - 115
115. (135) Utah (11-20, 5-15) (19) - 122
116. (144) Georgia Tech (19-13, 10-10) (118) - 117
117. (106) Colorado (13-19, 5-15) (34) - 124
118. (113) Portland (16-15, 6-12) (88) - 121
119. (121) Army (21-8, 13-3) (234) - 111
120. (124) UNF (23-8, 9-5) (259) - 118
121. (100) Ole Miss (20-13, 6-12) (139) - 116
122. (128) Mississippi State (18-14, 8-10) (121) - 120
123. (118) Texas State (17-12, 11-5) (123) - 125
124. (137) Seattle (20-8, 12-2) (245) - 119
125. (95) UC Irvine (15-13, 9-7) (92) - 123

[BoilerUp!]

Thank you for doing this!!!

[vballfan92]

Quick question: how high of an RPI on average does a team need to get an at-large bid?

[bluepenquin]

Sept 28, 2015 22:13:28 GMT -5 vballfan92 said:

Quick question: how high of an RPI on average does a team need to get an at-large bid?

Others would know this better than me - but I generally think 45-50 is in the bubble. Some will make it in that range and others will not.

[dorothymantooth]

Sept 28, 2015 20:45:22 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

RPI Futures is a projected season ending RPI based on the win probabilities for the remaining games on the schedule using the current Pablo rating.  This includes projected adjustments on games completed and overall non conference schedule.

Teams projected to receive scheduling bonus: Illinois, Louisville, Stanford, Creighton, Wisconsin, Marquette, Texas A&M, North Carolina, & Utah.

Noted Teams to receive a scheduling penalty:  Pittsburgh, UNCW, San Francisco, Villanova, & Temple

Projected RPI rank after adjustments. (PW RPI rank) Team (projected overall wins and losses, Projected Conference Wins & Losses) (SOS Rank) - RPI Rank before Adjustments

1. (1) Florida (25-3, 16-2) (2) - 1
2. (2) Texas (25-2, 15-1) (11) - 2
3. (6) USC (31-1, 19-1) (39) - 3
4. (3) Kansas (26-2, 14-2) (38) - 4
5. (7) Penn State (29-2, 18-2) (45) - 5
6. (4) UCLA (23-7, 14-6) (9) - 6
7. (5) Illinois (25-6, 16-4) (17) - 9
8. (13) Nebraska (25-5, 16-4) (21) - 7
9. (10) Minnesota (23-7, 15-5) (5) - 8
10. (23) Kentucky (23-7, 16-2) (8) - 10
11. (16) Arizona State (25-6, 14-6) (30) - 13
12. (12) Arkansas State (24-2, 15-1) (89) - 12
13. (11) Washington (27-3, 17-3) (64) - 11
14. (15) Ohio State (23-9, 12-8) (13) - 16
15. (9) BYU (25-4, 15-3) (63) - 15
16. (17) Western Kentucky (28-3, 15-1) (82) - 14
17. (22) Louisville (24-6, 18-2) (41) - 18
18. (14) Missouri (25-6, 13-5) (48) - 17
19. (25) Arkansas (24-6, 14-4) (58) - 19
20. (8) Stanford (20-8, 14-6) (25) - 23
21. (28) Creighton (22-9, 16-2) (20) - 22
22. (20) SMU (28-4, 18-2) (105) - 20
23. (24) Florida State (25-6, 18-2) (60) - 21
24. (18) Wisconsin (19-11, 11-9) (10) - 25
25. (33) Hawaii (26-1, 16-0) (162) - 24
26. (19) Marquette (23-8, 14-4) (42) - 26
27. (26) Michigan (20-11, 10-10) (16) - 28
28. (32) Wyoming (26-4, 16-2) (119) - 31
29. (29) Ohio (26-4, 16-0) (128) - 29
30. (36) Missouri State (23-8, 14-4) (65) - 30
31. (27) Rice (24-6, 14-2) (81) - 27
32. (31) Baylor (18-12, 6-10) (12) - 32
33. (21) Texas A&M (17-12, 10-8) (6) - 38
34. (38) Wichita State (24-8, 15-3) (78) - 35
35. (51) San Diego (20-10, 13-5) (28) - 33
36. (35) Arizona (21-11, 11-9) (33) - 36
37. (34) Iowa State (16-12, 9-7) (7) - 37
38. (41) Northwestern (16-15, 8-12) (1) - 34
39. (39) Pacific (21-9, 12-6) (55) - 40
40. (46) Pittsburgh (25-7, 15-5) (98) - 39
41. (57) Purdue (21-10, 12-8) (54) - 42
42. (37) Dayton (21-9, 12-2) (69) - 41
43. (44) Gonzaga (20-11, 11-7) (37) - 43
44. (48) Miami-FL (20-10, 13-7) (47) - 44
45. (49) Idaho State (21-9, 13-3) (77) - 45
46. (50) Kansas State (17-11, 9-7) (26) - 46
47. (43) North Carolina (17-12, 14-6) (27) - 50
48. (69) Santa Clara (19-11, 10-8) (50) - 47
49. (77) Saint Louis (23-7, 12-2) (111) - 48
50. (47) Iowa (17-16, 7-13) (15) - 51
51. (52) Colorado State (23-6, 15-3) (131) - 49
52. (58) UNC Wilmington (23-5, 14-2) (167) - 53
53. (30) San Francisco (21-10, 8-10) (72) - 52
54. (67) Oregon (15-14, 9-11) (18) - 54
55. (62) Villanova (22-9, 12-6) (87) - 55
56. (42) Southern Illinois (20-11, 11-7) (68) - 56
57. (45) Northern Arizona (22-7, 12-4) (129) - 57
58. (86) Lipscomb (20-9, 12-2) (99) - 58
59. (55) TCU (18-10, 8-8) (71) - 59
60. (94) Temple (25-7, 16-4) (144) - 60
61. (65) Chattanooga (26-3, 15-1) (239) - 61
62. (68) Texas-San Antonio (22-8, 13-3) (126) - 62
63. (40) Boise State (21-9, 13-5) (108) - 63
64. (114) Xavier (17-12, 13-5) (51) - 65
65. (59) Michigan State (16-15, 8-12) (29) - 68
66. (79) Sacramento State (26-5, 13-3) (223) - 66
67. (53) Loyola Marymount (15-15, 6-12) (24) - 74
68. (80) Syracuse (22-9, 13-7) (117) - 69
69. (63) Virginia (19-12, 11-9) (57) - 67
70. (93) Pepperdine (16-15, 7-11) (31) - 70
71. (84) James Madison (23-6, 13-3) (165) - 64
72. (64) Murray State (26-1, 16-0) (292) - 72
73. (108) Auburn (16-14, 8-10) (35) - 75
74. (91) Northern Iowa (17-14, 11-7) (40) - 76
75. (70) Towson (26-5, 12-4) (227) - 77
76. (56) Illinois State (21-10, 11-7) (109) - 79
77. (73) Cleveland State (24-6, 13-3) (210) - 73
78. (81) Loyola-Chicago (22-8, 12-6) (125) - 71
79. (71) Oklahoma (12-16, 6-10) (3) - 80
80. (83) Appalachian State (21-6, 14-2) (171) - 81
81. (96) St. Johns (22-11, 12-6) (101) - 82
82. (85) Rhode Island (20-7, 10-4) (151) - 78
83. (54) Virginia Tech (19-13, 10-10) (76) - 84
84. (87) Long Beach State (24-7, 13-3) (185) - 83
85. (61) North Dakota State (21-9, 12-4) (142) - 88
86. (105) Furman (19-7, 13-3) (176) - 85
87. (97) Coastal Carolina (22-4, 14-0) (250) - 86
88. (75) Cincinnati (21-10, 13-7) (113) - 87
89. (72) Texas-Arlington (20-8, 11-5) (159) - 90
90. (90) American (25-6, 15-1) (228) - 92
91. (74) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (26-6, 14-2) (233) - 89
92. (104) Florida Atlantic (18-10, 10-6) (100) - 91
93. (88) New Mexico State (25-6, 13-1) (238) - 95
94. (66) Tennessee (23-10, 9-9) (150) - 93
95. (60) UCF (19-13, 13-7) (85) - 94
96. (110) IUPUI (23-7, 14-2) (216) - 98
97. (82) Denver (25-7, 13-3) (240) - 97
98. (111) LSU (12-17, 8-10) (14) - 99
99. (76) North Texas (17-14, 9-7) (80) - 100
100. (78) Washington State (18-14, 7-13) (67) - 96
101. (107) Yale (18-6, 12-2) (244) - 102
102. (115) New Mexico (18-13, 10-8) (97) - 103
103. (92) George Washington (20-10, 10-4) (163) - 104
104. (131) Arkansas-Little Rock (15-11, 11-5) (104) - 105
105. (103) Miami-OH (21-8, 13-3) (200) - 101
106. (120) Kennesaw State (17-8, 9-5) (196) - 106
107. (102) Cal Poly (19-8, 11-5) (213) - 107
108. (138) Northern Illinois (17-11, 13-3) (124) - 108
109. (116) Florida Gulf Coast (20-11, 9-5) (148) - 109
110. (109) College of Charleston (17-13, 9-7) (112) - 110
111. (122) Indiana State (19-14, 8-10) (114) - 112
112. (89) Indiana (14-18, 4-16) (43) - 113
113. (125) Valparaiso (26-6, 12-4) (287) - 114
114. (101) Duke (14-16, 9-11) (52) - 115
115. (135) Utah (11-20, 5-15) (19) - 122
116. (144) Georgia Tech (19-13, 10-10) (118) - 117
117. (106) Colorado (13-19, 5-15) (34) - 124
118. (113) Portland (16-15, 6-12) (88) - 121
119. (121) Army (21-8, 13-3) (234) - 111
120. (124) UNF (23-8, 9-5) (259) - 118
121. (100) Ole Miss (20-13, 6-12) (139) - 116
122. (128) Mississippi State (18-14, 8-10) (121) - 120
123. (118) Texas State (17-12, 11-5) (123) - 125
124. (137) Seattle (20-8, 12-2) (245) - 119
125. (95) UC Irvine (15-13, 9-7) (92) - 123

I will be interested in revisiting this late in the year. I actually think it looks right.

[ay2013]

Washington will lose more than 3 matches this year...I'd bet on that.

[Cubicle No More ...]

it's very interesting seeing how this tracks each week ... thanks for doing this!

Sept 28, 2015 20:45:22 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

25. (33) Hawaii (26-1, 16-0) (162) - 24

interesting. 2 matches into conference play, and this projection has changed. i'm not so sure this actually happens, as this team hasn't been tested on the road yet. (and last year's team was very vulnerable on the road.) but it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

[n00b]

Sept 28, 2015 22:13:28 GMT -5 vballfan92 said:

Quick question: how high of an RPI on average does a team need to get an at-large bid?

If the committee went strictly by RPI (they don't) and every favorite won their conference tournament (they won't), #48 Santa Clara would be the last team in and #49 Saint Louis would be the first team out based on this projection.

[ay2013]

An unseeded Stanford is a bracket buster.

[trojansc]

Sept 28, 2015 23:14:11 GMT -5 n00b said:

Sept 28, 2015 22:13:28 GMT -5 vballfan92 said:

Quick question: how high of an RPI on average does a team need to get an at-large bid?

If the committee went strictly by RPI (they don't) and every favorite won their conference tournament (they won't), #48 Santa Clara would be the last team in and #49 Saint Louis would be the first team out based on this projection.

Good call. Usually #46-#49 is the cutoff. If you're in the 50s, you'd better have beaten some good teams if you want in.

[klineam]

How's Duke #114? And Miami who has lost 2-0 in the ACC is #44? Something is wrong.

[bluepenquin]

Sept 29, 2015 4:03:00 GMT -5 klineam said:

How's Duke #114? And Miami who has lost 2-0 in the ACC is #44? Something is wrong.

(This is projected season ending RPI - not current RPI)

The quick answer is that the Pablo rating has Miami as the 4th or 5th best team in the ACC and Duke as only the 9th.  As a result, Pablo is projecting Duke to go just 8-10 in their remaining games compared to Miami going 13-5.  Their RPI SOS are pretty similar - although Miami is just a tad better and Miami has the extra win in non conference.  As a result - Duke will have to exceed Miami in conference play in order to have a better RPI by season end.

As for the 1st week in conference - Miami lost to the 2 best teams in conference on the road (Florida State and Louisville), while Duke split home matches against much lessor opponents.

[bluepenquin]

Sept 28, 2015 23:04:36 GMT -5 Cubicle No More ... said:

it's very interesting seeing how this tracks each week ... thanks for doing this!

Sept 28, 2015 20:45:22 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

25. (33) Hawaii (26-1, 16-0) (162) - 24

interesting. 2 matches into conference play, and this projection has changed. i'm not so sure this actually happens, as this team hasn't been tested on the road yet. (and last year's team was very vulnerable on the road.) but it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Much of this is rounding - last week Hawaii was projected to win 14.38 conference matches and this week it is up to 15.54.

Last week's projection thought there was about a 25% chance of losing one game - so Hawaii 'picked up' 0.25 wins over last weeks projection by sweeping.   More importantly - Hawaii's Pablo rating improved so the chances of Hawaii winning each upcoming game increased.  

This conference is killing Hawaii's chances of getting a good RPI. 

[dorothymantooth]

Sept 28, 2015 22:40:18 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Washington will lose more than 3 matches this year...I'd bet on that.

agreed, they would need to win nearly all those toss-up matches to finish with that record.

[Freeman]

Sept 28, 2015 23:14:11 GMT -5 n00b said:

Sept 28, 2015 22:13:28 GMT -5 vballfan92 said:

Quick question: how high of an RPI on average does a team need to get an at-large bid?

If the committee went strictly by RPI (they don't) and every favorite won their conference tournament (they won't), #48 Santa Clara would be the last team in and #49 Saint Louis would be the first team out based on this projection.

Woah woah woah. When was that announcement made? The committee has stopped going strictly by RPI?