RPI Futures Week 8 (10/18)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a projected season ending RPI based on the win probabilities for the remaining games on the schedule using the current Pablo rating.

Projected RPI Rank (LW rank) School (overall wins - losses, conference wins - losses) (SOS) - Unadjusted projected RPI Rank

1. (1) USC (31-1, 19-1) (35) - 2
2. (2) Texas (25-2, 15-1) (15) - 1
3. (3) Florida (24-4, 15-3) (2) - 3
4. (6) Nebraska (27-3, 18-2) (25) - 4
5. (8) Minnesota (25-5, 17-3) (10) - 5
6. (7) UCLA (24-6, 15-5) (7) - 6
7. (4) Ohio State (27-5, 16-4) (16) - 7
8. (5) Kansas (26-2, 14-2) (55) - 8
9. (9) BYU (26-3, 16-2) (64) - 10
10. (10) Washington (28-2, 18-2) (63) - 9
11. (12) Penn State (26-5, 15-5) (36) - 11
12. (11) Kentucky (23-7, 16-2) (11) - 12
13. (15) Western Kentucky (29-2, 16-0) (82) - 14
14. (13) Arkansas State (25-1, 16-0) (93) - 13
15. (19) Florida State (26-5, 19-1) (45) - 15
16. (17) Louisville (24-6, 18-2) (39) - 17
17. (16) Missouri (25-6, 13-5) (43) - 16
18. (14) Wisconsin (20-10, 12-8) (9) - 19
19. (20) Creighton (23-8, 17-1) (28) - 18
20. (18) Arizona State (23-8, 12-8) (31) - 21
21. (26) Texas A&M (18-11, 11-7) (6) - 24
22. (22) SMU (28-4, 18-2) (103) - 20
23. (21) Stanford (19-9, 13-7) (27) - 27
24. (24) Hawaii (25-2, 15-1) (144) - 23
25. (27) San Diego (21-9, 14-4) (23) - 22
26. (28) Iowa State (18-10, 10-6) (8) - 25
27. (25) Illinois (19-12, 10-10) (12) - 28
28. (33) Northwestern (18-13, 10-10) (1) - 26
29. (23) Arkansas (22-8, 12-6) (61) - 32
30. (29) Ohio (26-4, 15-1) (130) - 29
31. (30) Marquette (22-9, 13-5) (48) - 38
32. (50) Loyola Marymount (19-11, 10-8) (20) - 31
33. (45) Colorado State (25-4, 17-1) (121) - 33
34. (36) Villanova (25-6, 15-3) (99) - 30
35. (38) Wichita State (24-8, 15-3) (70) - 36
36. (31) North Carolina (18-11, 15-5) (26) - 40
37. (32) Michigan (19-12, 9-11) (14) - 34
38. (39) Dayton (23-7, 13-1) (71) - 35
39. (35) Arizona (21-11, 11-9) (24) - 37
40. (40) Baylor (18-12, 6-10) (13) - 39
41. (42) Santa Clara (21-9, 12-6) (62) - 41
42. (37) Missouri State (21-10, 12-6) (66) - 46
43. (46) Virginia (20-11, 12-8) (41) - 47
44. (43) Idaho State (22-8, 14-2) (74) - 42
45. (34) Purdue (21-10, 12-8) (56) - 44
46. (60) James Madison (25-4, 15-1) (149) - 43
47. (48) Pittsburgh (24-8, 14-6) (87) - 45
48. (56) Northern Arizona (24-5, 14-2) (132) - 48
49. (49) Pacific (19-11, 10-8) (46) - 50
50. (47) Miami-FL (20-10, 13-7) (57) - 49
51. (55) Boise State (22-8, 14-4) (102) - 51
52. (41) Wyoming (22-8, 12-6) (115) - 54
53. (57) Kansas State (16-12, 8-8) (29) - 52
54. (54) Michigan State (18-13, 10-10) (34) - 55
55. (51) TCU (19-9, 9-7) (72) - 53
56. (52) Lipscomb (20-9, 12-2) (88) - 56
57. (67) Long Beach State (24-7, 12-4) (141) - 60
58. (44) Saint Louis (22-8, 11-3) (122) - 61
59. (61) Iowa (15-18, 5-15) (5) - 69
60. (78) Loyola-Chicago (23-7, 13-5) (135) - 57
61. (64) Northern Iowa (17-14, 11-7) (33) - 71
62. (58) Southern Illinois (20-11, 11-7) (76) - 65
63. (70) Chattanooga (25-4, 14-2) (230) - 58
64. (74) Oregon (15-14, 9-11) (17) - 59
65. (83) Syracuse (22-9, 13-7) (114) - 64
66. (59) Rice (21-9, 11-5) (97) - 62
67. (68) Illinois State (22-9, 12-6) (106) - 63
68. (71) Pepperdine (17-14, 8-10) (32) - 70
69. (53) Temple (24-8, 15-5) (147) - 66
70. (77) Florida Atlantic (19-9, 11-5) (101) - 67
71. (75) Appalachian State (21-6, 14-2) (179) - 68
72. (73) UNC Wilmington (21-7, 12-4) (151) - 72
73. (63) Cleveland State (24-6, 13-3) (210) - 73
74. (88) Florida Gulf Coast (23-8, 12-2) (142) - 74
75. (72) Towson (26-5, 12-4) (245) - 75
76. (69) Oklahoma (11-17, 5-11) (3) - 77
77. (65) Gonzaga (16-15, 7-11) (38) - 79
78. (76) Xavier (16-13, 12-6) (53) - 81
79. (84) American (25-6, 16-0) (222) - 76
80. (80) Murray State (26-1, 16-0) (298) - 80
81. (90) Coastal Carolina (22-4, 14-0) (253) - 82
82. (87) New Mexico State (25-6, 13-1) (237) - 85
83. (62) San Francisco (19-12, 6-12) (84) - 83
84. (66) Texas-San Antonio (21-9, 12-4) (146) - 84
85. (94) Sacramento State (24-7, 11-5) (207) - 87
86. (85) Auburn (16-14, 8-10) (51) - 86
87. (91) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (27-5, 15-1) (256) - 78
88. (93) Cal Poly (21-6, 13-3) (212) - 88
89. (86) North Texas (19-12, 11-5) (89) - 89
90. (79) Denver (25-7, 13-3) (228) - 91
91. (99) Colorado (16-16, 8-12) (52) - 95
92. (98) Cincinnati (20-11, 12-8) (110) - 90
93. (89) Tennessee (23-10, 9-9) (152) - 92
94. (81) Washington State (17-15, 6-14) (67) - 94
95. (82) Virginia Tech (18-14, 9-11) (73) - 93
96. (108) Ole Miss (22-11, 8-10) (131) - 96
97. (106) Oakland (17-13, 11-5) (90) - 97
98. (107) New Mexico (18-13, 11-7) (96) - 101
99. (109) Georgia Tech (19-13, 10-10) (107) - 98
100. (104) Rhode Island (19-8, 9-5) (165) - 99
101. (96) Furman (18-8, 12-4) (180) - 100
102. (101) Northern Illinois (17-11, 13-3) (116) - 103
103. (92) Texas-Arlington (19-9, 10-6) (175) - 102
104. (105) Texas State (18-11, 13-3) (126) - 104
105. (122) Alabama (15-17, 9-9) (54) - 106
106. (127) Tulsa (16-16, 11-9) (65) - 105
107. (95) LSU (11-18, 7-11) (18) - 113
108. (113) George Washington (20-10, 10-4) (184) - 107
109. (118) Hofstra (21-10, 12-4) (181) - 108
110. (117) Army (21-8, 13-3) (244) - 109
111. (110) Duke (14-16, 9-11) (58) - 115
112. (112) Miami-OH (20-9, 12-4) (213) - 110
113. (103) North Dakota State (19-11, 10-6) (156) - 111
114. (97) St. Johns (19-14, 9-9) (112) - 112
115. (111) Indiana (14-18, 4-16) (42) - 117
116. (100) IUPUI (21-9, 12-4) (232) - 118
117. (146) Kennesaw State (16-9, 8-6) (174) - 114
118. (114) College of Charleston (16-14, 8-8) (98) - 116
119. (131) Dartmouth (14-9, 11-3) (163) - 119
120. (102) UCF (16-16, 10-10) (81) - 120
121. (119) Indiana State (18-15, 7-11) (118) - 121
122. (130) UNC Greensboro (20-11, 10-6) (206) - 122
123. (133) Southern Miss (23-10, 10-6) (241) - 123
124. (128) Maryland (12-22, 2-18) (30) - 125
125. (134) Valparaiso (25-7, 11-5) (283) - 124

[bluepenquin]

Here are the +1/-1 conference wins scenarios:

4. Nebraska (18 Wins-4) (19 Wins-3) (17 Wins-7)
5. Minnesota (17 Wins-5) (18 Wins-4) (16 Wins-7)
7. Ohio State (16 Wins-7) (17 Wins-4) (15 Wins-7)
11. Penn State (15 Wins-11) (16 Wins-9) (14 Wins-12)
18. Wisconsin (12 Wins-18) (13 Wiins-14) (11 Wins-22)
27. Illinois (10 Wins-27) (11 Wins-21) (9 Wins-31)
28. Northwestern (10 Wins-28) (11 Wins-21) (9 Wins-31)
37. Michigan (9 Wins-34) (10 Wins-29) (8 Wins-41)
45. Purdue (12 Wins-44) (13 Wiins-40) (11 Wins-50)
54. Michigan State (10 Wins-54) (11 Wins-49) (9 Wins-64)
59. Iowa (5 Wiins-56) (6 Wins-50) (4 Wins-67)


1. USC (19 Wins-1) (20 Wins-1) (18 Wins-2)
6. UCLA (15 Wins-7) (16 Wins-4) (14 Wins-8)
10. Washington (18 Wins-9) (19 Wins-8) (17 Wins-11)
20. Arizona State (12 Wins-20) (13 Wins-23) (11 Wins-26)
23. Stanford (13 Wins-24) (14 Wins-20) (12 Wins-29)
39. Arizona (11 Wins-32) (12 Wins-28) (10 Wins-40)
64. Oregon (9 Wins-57) (10 Wins-51) (8 Wins-71)



2. Texas (15 Wins-2) (16 Wins-1) (14 Wins-3)
8. Kansas (14 Wins-8) (15 Wins-8) (13 Wins-11)
26. Iowa State (10 Wins-27) (11 Wins-20) (9 Wins-31)
40. Baylor (6 Wins-40) (7 Wins-30) (5 Wins-46)
53. Kansas State (8 Wins-53) (9 Wins-49) (7 Wins-67)
55. TCU (9 Wins-54) (10 Wins-47) (8 Wins-67)



9. BYU (16 Wins-11) (17 Wins-9) (15 Wins-13)
25. San Diego (14 Wins-27) (15 Wins-20) (13 Wins-31)
32. Loyola Marymount (10 Wins-35) (11 Wins-29) (9 Wins-40)
41. Santa Clara (12 Wins-41) (13 Wins-34) (11 Wins-50)
49. Pacific (10 Wins-49) (11 Wins-41) (9 Wins-53)



15. Florida State (19 Wins-13) (20 Wins-12) (18 Wins-17)
16. Louisville (18 Wins-16) (19 Wins-13) (17 Wins-20)
36. North Carolina (15 Wins-39) (16 Wins-29) (14 Wins-46)
43. Virginia (12 Wins-46) (13 Wins-41) (11 Wins-52)
47. Pittsburgh (14 Wins-45) (15 Wins-40) (13 Wins-50)
50. Miami-FL (13 Wins-50) (14 Wins-41) (12 Wins-54)
65. Syracuse (13 Wins-67) (14 Wins-55) (12 Wins-78)


3. Florida (15 Wins-3) (-) (14 Wins-3)
12. Kentucky (16 Wins-12) (17 Wins-9) (15 Wins-12)
17. Missouri (13 Wins-19) (14 Wins-14) (12 Wins-21)
21. Texas A&M (11 Wins-23) (12 Wins-20) (10 Wins-28)
29. Arkansas (12 Wins-29) (13 Wins-24) (11 Wins-39)


13. Western Kentucky (16 Wins-13) (-) (15 Wins-15)
14. Arkansas State (16 Wins-13) (-) (15 Wins-17)
19. Creighton (17 Wins-19) (18 Wins-13) (16 Wins-20)
22. SMU (18 Wins-26) (19 Wins-20) (17 Wins-28)
24. Hawaii (15 Wins-27) (16 Wins-20) (14 Wins-33)
30. Ohio (15 Wins-33) (16 Wins-29) (14 Wins-41)
31. Marquette (13 Wins-30) (14 Wins-27) (12 Wins-39)
33. Colorado State (17 Wins-33) (18 Wins-29) (16 Wins-41)
34. Villanova (15 Wins-36) (16 Wins-29) (14 Wins-41)
35. Wichita State (15 Wins-34) (16 Wins-29) (14 Wins-40)
38. Dayton (13 Wins-38) (14 Wins-29) (12 Wins-41)
42. Missouri State (12 Wins-46) (13 Wins-41) (11 Wins-52)
44. Idaho State (14 Wins-42) (15 Wins-38) (13 Wins-50)
46. James Madison (15 Wins-42) (16 Wins-33) (14 Wins-50)
48. Northern Arizona (14 Wins-42) (15 Wins-37) (13 Wins-50)
51. Boise State (14 Wins-52) (15 Wins-47) (13 Wins-64)
52. Wyoming (12 Wins-54) (13 Wins-50) (11 Wins-67)
56. Lipscomb (12 Wins-56) (13 Wins-51) (11 Wins-71)
57. Long Beach State (12 Wins-64) (13 Wins-53) (11 Wins-73)
58. Saint Louis (11 Wins-58) (12 Wins-51) (10 Wins-71)

[ay2013]

Oct 19, 2015 20:06:38 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

RPI Futures is a projected season ending RPI based on the win probabilities for the remaining games on the schedule using the current Pablo rating.

Projected RPI Rank (LW rank) School (overall wins - losses, conference wins - losses) (SOS) - Unadjusted projected RPI Rank

1. (1) USC (31-1, 19-1) (35) - 2
2. (2) Texas (25-2, 15-1) (15) - 1
3. (3) Florida (24-4, 15-3) (2) - 3
4. (6) Nebraska (27-3, 18-2) (25) - 4
5. (8) Minnesota (25-5, 17-3) (10) - 5
6. (7) UCLA (24-6, 15-5) (7) - 6
7. (4) Ohio State (27-5, 16-4) (16) - 7
8. (5) Kansas (26-2, 14-2) (55) - 8
9. (9) BYU (26-3, 16-2) (64) - 10
10. (10) Washington (28-2, 18-2) (63) - 9
11. (12) Penn State (26-5, 15-5) (36) - 11
12. (11) Kentucky (23-7, 16-2) (11) - 12
13. (15) Western Kentucky (29-2, 16-0) (82) - 14
14. (13) Arkansas State (25-1, 16-0) (93) - 13
15. (19) Florida State (26-5, 19-1) (45) - 15
16. (17) Louisville (24-6, 18-2) (39) - 17
17. (16) Missouri (25-6, 13-5) (43) - 16
18. (14) Wisconsin (20-10, 12-8) (9) - 19
19. (20) Creighton (23-8, 17-1) (28) - 18
20. (18) Arizona State (23-8, 12-8) (31) - 21
21. (26) Texas A&M (18-11, 11-7) (6) - 24
22. (22) SMU (28-4, 18-2) (103) - 20
23. (21) Stanford (19-9, 13-7) (27) - 27
24. (24) Hawaii (25-2, 15-1) (144) - 23
25. (27) San Diego (21-9, 14-4) (23) - 22
26. (28) Iowa State (18-10, 10-6) (8) - 25
27. (25) Illinois (19-12, 10-10) (12) - 28
28. (33) Northwestern (18-13, 10-10) (1) - 26
29. (23) Arkansas (22-8, 12-6) (61) - 32
30. (29) Ohio (26-4, 15-1) (130) - 29
31. (30) Marquette (22-9, 13-5) (48) - 38
32. (50) Loyola Marymount (19-11, 10-8) (20) - 31
33. (45) Colorado State (25-4, 17-1) (121) - 33
34. (36) Villanova (25-6, 15-3) (99) - 30
35. (38) Wichita State (24-8, 15-3) (70) - 36
36. (31) North Carolina (18-11, 15-5) (26) - 40
37. (32) Michigan (19-12, 9-11) (14) - 34
38. (39) Dayton (23-7, 13-1) (71) - 35
39. (35) Arizona (21-11, 11-9) (24) - 37
40. (40) Baylor (18-12, 6-10) (13) - 39
41. (42) Santa Clara (21-9, 12-6) (62) - 41
42. (37) Missouri State (21-10, 12-6) (66) - 46
43. (46) Virginia (20-11, 12-8) (41) - 47
44. (43) Idaho State (22-8, 14-2) (74) - 42
45. (34) Purdue (21-10, 12-8) (56) - 44
46. (60) James Madison (25-4, 15-1) (149) - 43
47. (48) Pittsburgh (24-8, 14-6) (87) - 45
48. (56) Northern Arizona (24-5, 14-2) (132) - 48
49. (49) Pacific (19-11, 10-8) (46) - 50
50. (47) Miami-FL (20-10, 13-7) (57) - 49
51. (55) Boise State (22-8, 14-4) (102) - 51
52. (41) Wyoming (22-8, 12-6) (115) - 54
53. (57) Kansas State (16-12, 8-8) (29) - 52
54. (54) Michigan State (18-13, 10-10) (34) - 55
55. (51) TCU (19-9, 9-7) (72) - 53
56. (52) Lipscomb (20-9, 12-2) (88) - 56
57. (67) Long Beach State (24-7, 12-4) (141) - 60
58. (44) Saint Louis (22-8, 11-3) (122) - 61
59. (61) Iowa (15-18, 5-15) (5) - 69
60. (78) Loyola-Chicago (23-7, 13-5) (135) - 57
61. (64) Northern Iowa (17-14, 11-7) (33) - 71
62. (58) Southern Illinois (20-11, 11-7) (76) - 65
63. (70) Chattanooga (25-4, 14-2) (230) - 58
64. (74) Oregon (15-14, 9-11) (17) - 59
65. (83) Syracuse (22-9, 13-7) (114) - 64
66. (59) Rice (21-9, 11-5) (97) - 62
67. (68) Illinois State (22-9, 12-6) (106) - 63
68. (71) Pepperdine (17-14, 8-10) (32) - 70
69. (53) Temple (24-8, 15-5) (147) - 66
70. (77) Florida Atlantic (19-9, 11-5) (101) - 67
71. (75) Appalachian State (21-6, 14-2) (179) - 68
72. (73) UNC Wilmington (21-7, 12-4) (151) - 72
73. (63) Cleveland State (24-6, 13-3) (210) - 73
74. (88) Florida Gulf Coast (23-8, 12-2) (142) - 74
75. (72) Towson (26-5, 12-4) (245) - 75
76. (69) Oklahoma (11-17, 5-11) (3) - 77
77. (65) Gonzaga (16-15, 7-11) (38) - 79
78. (76) Xavier (16-13, 12-6) (53) - 81
79. (84) American (25-6, 16-0) (222) - 76
80. (80) Murray State (26-1, 16-0) (298) - 80
81. (90) Coastal Carolina (22-4, 14-0) (253) - 82
82. (87) New Mexico State (25-6, 13-1) (237) - 85
83. (62) San Francisco (19-12, 6-12) (84) - 83
84. (66) Texas-San Antonio (21-9, 12-4) (146) - 84
85. (94) Sacramento State (24-7, 11-5) (207) - 87
86. (85) Auburn (16-14, 8-10) (51) - 86
87. (91) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (27-5, 15-1) (256) - 78
88. (93) Cal Poly (21-6, 13-3) (212) - 88
89. (86) North Texas (19-12, 11-5) (89) - 89
90. (79) Denver (25-7, 13-3) (228) - 91
91. (99) Colorado (16-16, 8-12) (52) - 95
92. (98) Cincinnati (20-11, 12-8) (110) - 90
93. (89) Tennessee (23-10, 9-9) (152) - 92
94. (81) Washington State (17-15, 6-14) (67) - 94
95. (82) Virginia Tech (18-14, 9-11) (73) - 93
96. (108) Ole Miss (22-11, 8-10) (131) - 96
97. (106) Oakland (17-13, 11-5) (90) - 97
98. (107) New Mexico (18-13, 11-7) (96) - 101
99. (109) Georgia Tech (19-13, 10-10) (107) - 98
100. (104) Rhode Island (19-8, 9-5) (165) - 99
101. (96) Furman (18-8, 12-4) (180) - 100
102. (101) Northern Illinois (17-11, 13-3) (116) - 103
103. (92) Texas-Arlington (19-9, 10-6) (175) - 102
104. (105) Texas State (18-11, 13-3) (126) - 104
105. (122) Alabama (15-17, 9-9) (54) - 106
106. (127) Tulsa (16-16, 11-9) (65) - 105
107. (95) LSU (11-18, 7-11) (18) - 113
108. (113) George Washington (20-10, 10-4) (184) - 107
109. (118) Hofstra (21-10, 12-4) (181) - 108
110. (117) Army (21-8, 13-3) (244) - 109
111. (110) Duke (14-16, 9-11) (58) - 115
112. (112) Miami-OH (20-9, 12-4) (213) - 110
113. (103) North Dakota State (19-11, 10-6) (156) - 111
114. (97) St. Johns (19-14, 9-9) (112) - 112
115. (111) Indiana (14-18, 4-16) (42) - 117
116. (100) IUPUI (21-9, 12-4) (232) - 118
117. (146) Kennesaw State (16-9, 8-6) (174) - 114
118. (114) College of Charleston (16-14, 8-8) (98) - 116
119. (131) Dartmouth (14-9, 11-3) (163) - 119
120. (102) UCF (16-16, 10-10) (81) - 120
121. (119) Indiana State (18-15, 7-11) (118) - 121
122. (130) UNC Greensboro (20-11, 10-6) (206) - 122
123. (133) Southern Miss (23-10, 10-6) (241) - 123
124. (128) Maryland (12-22, 2-18) (30) - 125
125. (134) Valparaiso (25-7, 11-5) (283) - 124

In your SOS projection, does it show the weighted Opponent Record and Opponent-Opponent Record?

[ay2013]

I ask because you have BYU higher than UW despite the fact that BYU will have a lower win-loss percentage and a lower SOS.

[bluepenquin]

Oct 19, 2015 23:53:42 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

I ask because you have BYU higher than UW despite the fact that BYU will have a lower win-loss percentage and a lower SOS.

Yes - SOS rank includes 50% of Opponent Record + 25% of Opponent-Opponent Record.

I believe BYU has 6 bonus place points vs. 5 for Washington - but that shouldn't make up the difference in the rounded projected records.  I am guessing (w/o looking) that the unrounded projected records are much closer for these two teams than the rounded record.

Now looking at the +/- 1 conference win table - it becomes clear to me that Washington's wins are rounded up and BYU's are rounded down.  Using the rounded numbers - Washington would finish #9 and BYU would finish #11.

[c4ndlelight]

Funnily enough, I think 50 may be the exact "straight-by-RPI" cut off this year. Even numbers make it so easy