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Post by huskerjen on Dec 1, 2015 13:23:48 GMT -5
pepper2 and others maintain that "Hawaii has a very good chance to win against the teams in their regional bracket". Let us peek at the probabilities: Hawaii over TCU - 75% pretty good, but a 25% chance of loosing Hawaii over TAMU -55% not "very good" But to get to Penn State which seems a given to many, they have to win twice! The probability of that is .75 x .55 or .41 So it is more probable they do NOT get out of College Station (59%) to even meet PSU (who are also not assured of winning 2) So only a 41% probability of a favorable outcome for Hawaii in College Station is not "very good" IMO. They'll get bounced by A&M. At least they'll get to enjoy some decent brisket for a weekend. Nice change up from poi.
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Post by ballervolley on Dec 1, 2015 13:31:25 GMT -5
pepper2 and others maintain that "Hawaii has a very good chance to win against the teams in their regional bracket". Let us peek at the probabilities: Hawaii over TCU - 75% pretty good, but a 25% chance of loosing Hawaii over TAMU -55% not "very good" But to get to Penn State which seems a given to many, they have to win twice! The probability of that is .75 x .55 or .41 So it is more probable they do NOT get out of College Station (59%) to even meet PSU (who are also not assured of winning 2) So only a 41% probability of a favorable outcome for Hawaii in College Station is not "very good" IMO. They'll get bounced by A&M. At least they'll get to enjoy some decent brisket for a weekend. Nice change up from poi. Eh whatever happens happens I'm just sick of seeing Hawaii play teams from the west coast.
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Post by Boris on Dec 1, 2015 13:43:24 GMT -5
pepper2 and others maintain that "Hawaii has a very good chance to win against the teams in their regional bracket". Let us peek at the probabilities: Hawaii over TCU - 75% pretty good, but a 25% chance of loosing Hawaii over TAMU -55% not "very good" But to get to Penn State which seems a given to many, they have to win twice! The probability of that is .75 x .55 or .41 So it is more probable they do NOT get out of College Station (59%) to even meet PSU (who are also not assured of winning 2) So only a 41% probability of a favorable outcome for Hawaii in College Station is not "very good" IMO. They'll get bounced by A&M. At least they'll get to enjoy some decent brisket for a weekend. Nice change up from poi. I'm assuming that you've had poi. Next time try it with some sugar inside. Grits is just about the same thing. If UH gets by A&M, as I assume that they'll make it past Texas Christians, they'll have expended themselves mentally emotionally and physically with the Aggies. The BWC is not the same, nor will ever be the same. Now with Kansas City BBQ, that's also going to be more like it.
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Post by frustratedsetter on Dec 1, 2015 14:18:49 GMT -5
Pulling from a different thread: I don't think anyone is overlooking TCU and A&M Just extremely happy not to play UW or USC in the second round Most believed Hawaii will end up in the west coast for the first two rounds. What does Pablo say about Hawaii vs UW, USC, Stanford, UCLA and BYU? Is Hawaii favored against any of those teams by Pablo?? Understood - and way better than the usual alternatives.
Road matches for Hawaii:
@ Washington - 11% @ USC - 14% @ Stanford - 28% @ UCLA - 35% @ BYU - 30%
So the 55% chance over A&M is still better than what many were expecting. Agreed that Hawai'i (and any team) would have to face a good team anyway. It's just that UH vs UW on the second round gets a bit redundant. Now UH vs UW for the championship, that will be very exciting.
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Post by kahusancali on Dec 1, 2015 14:22:18 GMT -5
Still no word on travel itinerary? I read they taking a red eye flight today?
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Post by frustratedsetter on Dec 1, 2015 14:23:33 GMT -5
hawaii's chances is the same as it is in any regional. at some point they will have to play a top 4 team if they would like to win (assuming they all win). they have a better chance of defeating a usc or washington in the 2nd round than later. no team would want to play hawai'i in a 2nd round match. the ncaa should have kept them on the west coast instead of texas. they are hurting and tired, won't be able to compete at the highest level, unless other teams are strugging. Every team at this point is hurting/tired. Hawaii does have the advantage of having a week of rest (or disadvantage since they can become rusty). Spin it any way you want, but even the players were tired of going to Washington. I just hope that this more favorable draw will light a fire in the girls so they can fight and leave it all on the court.
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Post by Cubicle No More ... on Dec 1, 2015 14:29:25 GMT -5
pepper2 and others maintain that "Hawaii has a very good chance to win against the teams in their regional bracket". Let us peek at the probabilities: Hawaii over TCU - 75% pretty good, but a 25% chance of loosing Hawaii over TAMU -55% not "very good" But to get to Penn State which seems a given to many, they have to win twice! The probability of that is .75 x .55 or .41 So it is more probable they do NOT get out of College Station (59%) to even meet PSU (who are also not assured of winning 2) So only a 41% probability of a favorable outcome for Hawaii in College Station is not "very good" IMO. why do you have to go and ruin a perfectly good thread with ... stats?!
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Post by jttaberu on Dec 1, 2015 14:33:55 GMT -5
all numbers and stats go out the door come tournament time. it all depends on which wahine team shows up. i still get nightmares from that UH vs BYU match...
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Post by Cubicle No More ... on Dec 1, 2015 14:36:52 GMT -5
i don't think any of the teams are "looking past" their 1st round opponents this week. but, of course, it doesn't mean the fans can't get excited about the possibilities.
who knows what will happen in this subregional. i think we'd all like to see texas a&m and hawaii both take care of business, as they should as the favored teams, in the 1st round. it would certainly be the more exciting matchup to see in round 2.
both teams will have an axe to grind, and it would make for a compelling match! tamu being the seeded team, but the only seeded team to potentially have to face a top 10 avca team in the second round... and hawaii being unseeded and sent on the road yet again...
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Post by redbeard2008 on Dec 1, 2015 14:40:29 GMT -5
Florida beat them 3-1 in Austin. Other than Nebraska, who has Texas beat? NOBODY. Last I checked Hawaii was heading to Des Moines, not Austin. Last I checked Oregon is barely above .500 for the season. All they have is moral victories for playing teams "tough." I'm sure they'll get another moral victory after getting bounced out in the first round at Madison. They'll probably flex their muscle and lose 3-1 with a deuce set in there for good measure. If we asked any head coach in the country if they'd prefer playing at home against Oregon or at Texas with their job on the line, they'd unanimously choose the former. What's your point? Have you even seen Oregon play? They're much better than they were earlier in the season, when they switched from a 5-1 to a 6-2. They gave UW a real tussle. For a first round opponent, Oregon is very tough. Should they be favored? Of course not. Do they have a chance? Yes! If you want to argue about Nebraska, Wisconsin, or Texas, why don't you go to their regional threads. Hawaii won't see any of them until the FF.
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Post by pineapple on Dec 1, 2015 14:40:30 GMT -5
pepper2 and others maintain that "Hawaii has a very good chance to win against the teams in their regional bracket". Let us peek at the probabilities: Hawaii over TCU - 75% pretty good, but a 25% chance of loosing Hawaii over TAMU -55% not "very good" But to get to Penn State which seems a given to many, they have to win twice! The probability of that is .75 x .55 or .41 So it is more probable they do NOT get out of College Station (59%) to even meet PSU (who are also not assured of winning 2) So only a 41% probability of a favorable outcome for Hawaii in College Station is not "very good" IMO. Boo! What you calculated .4125 are the chances of the combination of .75 and .55 occurring, not Hawaii's odds. I am not a probability expert, but this is how I'd do it: (.75+.55)/2. Answer= 65%.
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Post by hapaguy on Dec 1, 2015 15:48:52 GMT -5
pepper2 and others maintain that "Hawaii has a very good chance to win against the teams in their regional bracket". Let us peek at the probabilities: Hawaii over TCU - 75% pretty good, but a 25% chance of loosing Hawaii over TAMU -55% not "very good" But to get to Penn State which seems a given to many, they have to win twice! The probability of that is .75 x .55 or .41 So it is more probable they do NOT get out of College Station (59%) to even meet PSU (who are also not assured of winning 2) So only a 41% probability of a favorable outcome for Hawaii in College Station is not "very good" IMO. They'll get bounced by A&M. At least they'll get to enjoy some decent brisket for a weekend. Nice change up from poi. Hawaii is not getting bounced by TAMU. TAMU's serving is very weak. They rank 306 out of 309 teams in service aces. TAMU will not win this match if they can't get Hawaii OOS. Hawaii will side out for a very high percentage. Hawaii will sweep or win this match 3-1.
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Post by hapaguy on Dec 1, 2015 15:52:57 GMT -5
pepper2 and others maintain that "Hawaii has a very good chance to win against the teams in their regional bracket". Let us peek at the probabilities: Hawaii over TCU - 75% pretty good, but a 25% chance of loosing Hawaii over TAMU -55% not "very good" But to get to Penn State which seems a given to many, they have to win twice! The probability of that is .75 x .55 or .41 So it is more probable they do NOT get out of College Station (59%) to even meet PSU (who are also not assured of winning 2) So only a 41% probability of a favorable outcome for Hawaii in College Station is not "very good" IMO. Not sure about how you arrived at that. Sounds wrong to me. In another thread BluePenguin used Pablo to calculate the 16 seeds chances of getting out of the 1st and 2nd rounds and for TAMU he calculated that TAMU had only a 41.3% chance of beating Hawaii in the 2nd round...Again that's using Pablo....
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Post by hapaguy on Dec 1, 2015 15:54:04 GMT -5
pepper2 and others maintain that "Hawaii has a very good chance to win against the teams in their regional bracket". Let us peek at the probabilities: Hawaii over TCU - 75% pretty good, but a 25% chance of loosing Hawaii over TAMU -55% not "very good" But to get to Penn State which seems a given to many, they have to win twice! The probability of that is .75 x .55 or .41 So it is more probable they do NOT get out of College Station (59%) to even meet PSU (who are also not assured of winning 2) So only a 41% probability of a favorable outcome for Hawaii in College Station is not "very good" IMO. Boo! What you calculated .4125 are the chances of the combination of .75 and .55 occurring, not Hawaii's odds. I am not a probability expert, but this is how I'd do it: (.75+.55)/2. Answer= 65%. BINGO!
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Post by Wolfgang on Dec 1, 2015 16:00:04 GMT -5
I don't think Hawaii is scared of anybody.
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