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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 1, 2015 15:01:47 GMT -5
Shocking to see that the Committee gave PSU an easy draw. Who could have guessed that would happen? What easy draw? Dayton is a very good team. PSU, if they get past Dayton will play either Hawaii or TAMU. If by some miracle PSU gets past those teams, they will have to play in the regional finals a team that just swept them. Dude, the numbers are right there for you to see.
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 1, 2015 15:03:22 GMT -5
Read what I just wrote. The second easiest sub-regional, and 5th easiest path to the Final Four. Compared to what other teams have to face, it's relatively easy. That they aren't a great team does not affect the quality of draw. But it's justified, because the number one seed should have the easiest draw right? ... Wait, what's that? PSU isn't the number one seed this year? Damn, there goes that justification.
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Post by n00b on Dec 1, 2015 15:12:14 GMT -5
Analysis of SubRegionals: This is, I think, the first year since I started doing this that Penn St does not have the easiest path. And it's not even close. Minnesota's path to the sub-regionals is among the weakest you will ever see. The sad part of this is that two of the teams are at-large selections. It's one thing when Penn St gets an easy path because it has a bunch of local AQs, who aren't up to the same level as the rest of the field. But these are at-large teams. Sad. For what it's worth, Penn State's subregional also has two at large-quality teams. (Dayton received the A10's auto-bid but would've gotten in regardless) In fact, only the Creighton and Ohio State subregionals have two teams that wouldn't have received at large bids. Makes you think they should've flown American to Wisconsin and Oregon to Ohio State.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Dec 1, 2015 15:28:37 GMT -5
Minnesota's easy subregional translates into an easier regional overall. Stanford, OTOH, if they can get through to the sweet 16, has it relatively easier (of course, nothing in the sweet 16 is easy). Wisconsin gets hammered in both, and they really have a tough path. I am not following how Stanford's path becomes relatively easier once to the sweet 16? Stanford would have Kansas (8) and USC (3) to get to the final 4. Compared to Penn State having Hawaii (13) or Texas A&M (18) and Minnesota (5); or Wisconsin having Florida (14) or Florida State (17) and Texas (2); or Washington having Ohio State (15) and Nebraska (4). Pablo rank in parenthesis.
Looks like the 5-8 seeds have very similar paths to the final 4 once/if they make the sweet 16. If anything, I would consider Stanford's to be the toughest among these seeds (which should be expected since they have the worst seed).
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 15:31:07 GMT -5
Minnesota's easy subregional translates into an easier regional overall. Stanford, OTOH, if they can get through to the sweet 16, has it relatively easier (of course, nothing in the sweet 16 is easy). Wisconsin gets hammered in both, and they really have a tough path. I am not following how Stanford's path becomes relatively easier once to the sweet 16? Compared to their opening rounds, their regionals are more in line with everyone else. That makes it relatively easier.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Dec 1, 2015 15:31:15 GMT -5
Analysis of SubRegionals: This is, I think, the first year since I started doing this that Penn St does not have the easiest path. And it's not even close. Minnesota's path to the sub-regionals is among the weakest you will ever see. The sad part of this is that two of the teams are at-large selections. It's one thing when Penn St gets an easy path because it has a bunch of local AQs, who aren't up to the same level as the rest of the field. But these are at-large teams. Sad. For what it's worth, Penn State's subregional also has two at large-quality teams. (Dayton received the A10's auto-bid but would've gotten in regardless) In fact, only the Creighton and Ohio State subregionals have two teams that wouldn't have received at large bids. Makes you think they should've flown American to Wisconsin and Oregon to Ohio State. Wasn't option - American is 393 miles from Columbus.
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Post by n00b on Dec 1, 2015 15:33:00 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Penn State's subregional also has two at large-quality teams. (Dayton received the A10's auto-bid but would've gotten in regardless) In fact, only the Creighton and Ohio State subregionals have two teams that wouldn't have received at large bids. Makes you think they should've flown American to Wisconsin and Oregon to Ohio State. Wasn't option - American is 393 miles from Columbus. Ah. I guess my midwest-mid atlantic geography isn't great. I assumed that it was well over 400 miles.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 15:35:22 GMT -5
Wasn't option - American is 393 miles from Columbus. Ah. I guess my midwest-mid atlantic geography isn't great. I assumed that it was well over 400 miles. Step 1: you gotta know where American University is ("somewhere out east, right?")
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Dec 1, 2015 15:36:46 GMT -5
I am not following how Stanford's path becomes relatively easier once to the sweet 16? Compared to their opening rounds, their regionals are more in line with everyone else. That makes it relatively easier. Got it. Just looking at Stanford's draw - it appears to be much tougher than what many Stanford fans think. They have a fairly tough subregional. They just don't face any Big 10 teams, so the perception is 'easy'.
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Post by volleyguy on Dec 1, 2015 15:39:43 GMT -5
Thank you. So, Howard is horrible. NO. Howard's OPPONENTS are terrible (hard). This has nothing to do with Howard, other than the teams they are playing. As noted, the rating is completely independent of Howard, and is solely determined by the fact that the first round opponent is Penn St, and if they win, they have to play the winner of Dayton or Villanova. Thanks for the explanation. As a clarification, I meant Howard is a horrible team. I've seen them play.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 15:48:09 GMT -5
NO. Howard's OPPONENTS are terrible (hard). This has nothing to do with Howard, other than the teams they are playing. As noted, the rating is completely independent of Howard, and is solely determined by the fact that the first round opponent is Penn St, and if they win, they have to play the winner of Dayton or Villanova. Thanks for the explanation. As a clarification, I meant Howard is a horrible team. I've seen them play. Sure, but in determining how good their draw is, we want to take that out of it.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 15:51:08 GMT -5
Compared to their opening rounds, their regionals are more in line with everyone else. That makes it relatively easier. Got it. Just looking at Stanford's draw - it appears to be much tougher than what many Stanford fans think. They have a fairly tough subregional. They just don't face any Big 10 teams, so the perception is 'easy'.
Pablo has Colorado St in the top 12. Oh, I know "they went 5 sets with Iowa St at home," but outscored them by 20 points.
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Post by HappyVolley on Dec 1, 2015 16:33:25 GMT -5
Read what I just wrote. The second easiest sub-regional, and 5th easiest path to the Final Four. Compared to what other teams have to face, it's relatively easy. That they aren't a great team does not affect the quality of draw. But it's justified, because the number one seed should have the easiest draw right? ... Wait, what's that? PSU isn't the number one seed this year? Damn, there goes that justification. Howard alone makes the sub-regional and ostensibly the path to the FF seem much easier than it is. If you think Penn State won't be challenged in the second round by Dayton or even Villanova, then you haven't been paying attention to Penn State this year. I would not be surprised at all to see Penn State lose in the second round.
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 1, 2015 17:03:16 GMT -5
Ah. I guess my midwest-mid atlantic geography isn't great. I assumed that it was well over 400 miles. Step 1: you gotta know where American University is ("somewhere out east, right?") I was figuring more like "somewhere in America ... probably".
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 17:13:04 GMT -5
But it's justified, because the number one seed should have the easiest draw right? ... Wait, what's that? PSU isn't the number one seed this year? Damn, there goes that justification. Howard alone makes the sub-regional and ostensibly the path to the FF seem much easier than it is. If you think Penn State won't be challenged in the second round by Dayton or even Villanova, then you haven't been paying attention to Penn State this year. Yes. That is a problem with Penn St, not a function of having a strong draw. This thread is talking about the difficulty of the opponents, not how Penn St isn't near as good as they have been in the past.
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