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Post by mikegarrison on Sept 19, 2016 21:19:18 GMT -5
Pablo says there are going to be a lot of losses by top 20 B1G teams this year. Heck, it has Minnesota with 6 and Wisconsin with 5. Nebraska wins it at 17-3 ... That's not really the right way to interpret this. This technique will never predict that even a dominant team goes 20-0 over their next 20 matches. The more matches there are to play, the more the chance of losing one starts to add up.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2016 21:23:03 GMT -5
Helps how? I think 14-6 is a good prediction.
My point was more how difficult the B1G is going to be this year. It'll be interesting to see how the AVCA reacts, or if this will be Florida, Kansas and Texas's path to top 3-4. BYU and San Diego could benefit, too.
Of course, the AVCA ranking and $10 isn't going to get you into a movie, let alone a top 4 seed.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2016 21:26:01 GMT -5
Pablo says there are going to be a lot of losses by top 20 B1G teams this year. Heck, it has Minnesota with 6 and Wisconsin with 5. Nebraska wins it at 17-3 ... That's not really the right way to interpret this. This technique will never predict that even a dominant team goes 20-0 over their next 20 matches. The more matches there are to play, the more the chance of losing one starts to add up. Yes, I see that. Pablo only has Wisconsin and Nebraska beating Minnesota (and Wisconsin has to be home). I should have just stuck with "these futures."
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Post by mikegarrison on Sept 19, 2016 21:29:58 GMT -5
Helps how? I think 14-6 is a good prediction. Maybe so, but 14-6 is only the middle of a range of predictions. It's not "pablo predicts they will go 14-6". There ideally should be some information on the width of the confidence around that prediction.
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Post by SportyBucky on Sept 19, 2016 21:58:24 GMT -5
Helps how? I think 14-6 is a good prediction. My point was more how difficult the B1G is going to be this year. It'll be interesting to see how the AVCA reacts, or if this will be Florida, Kansas and Texas's path to top 3-4. BYU and San Diego could benefit, too. Of course, the AVCA ranking and $10 isn't going to get you into a movie, let alone a top 4 seed. No matter what happens, Texas sneaks into the top four.
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Post by volleyfan24 on Sept 19, 2016 22:41:40 GMT -5
Helps how? I think 14-6 is a good prediction. My point was more how difficult the B1G is going to be this year. It'll be interesting to see how the AVCA reacts, or if this will be Florida, Kansas and Texas's path to top 3-4. BYU and San Diego could benefit, too. Of course, the AVCA ranking and $10 isn't going to get you into a movie, let alone a top 4 seed. No matter what happens, Texas sneaks into the top four. I don't know if it is sneaking in. I legitimately believe Texas is a consistent Top 4 squad come December and they always play a really tough non-conference schedule. Everyone always rags on the Big 12 for not being a good conference but somehow Texas always finds a way to be in the Final Four in December. I don't know if it's good coaching by Elliot and his staff or them perfecting and working out the kinks by the end of the year. Texas has the longest active streak of consecutive Final Fours and although it could be broken this year as their team is young I believe they are very much in the conversation for the Final four and National Championship again.
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Post by naujack85 on Sept 20, 2016 0:10:26 GMT -5
No matter what happens, Texas sneaks into the top four. I don't know if it is sneaking in. I legitimately believe Texas is a consistent Top 4 squad come December and they always play a really tough non-conference schedule. Everyone always rags on the Big 12 for not being a good conference but somehow Texas always finds a way to be in the Final Four in December. I don't know if it's good coaching by Elliot and his staff or them perfecting and working out the kinks by the end of the year. Texas has the longest active streak of consecutive Final Fours and although it could be broken this year as their team is young I believe they are very much in the conversation for the Final four and National Championship again. Playing at home to get to every single one of those final fours certainly helps. I'm not saying that it significantly diminishes the accomplishments they've garnered, but having hone cookin' line judges in n a fifth set against Florida definitely can't hurt.
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Post by tempesthorn on Sept 20, 2016 9:22:38 GMT -5
I don't know if it is sneaking in. I legitimately believe Texas is a consistent Top 4 squad come December and they always play a really tough non-conference schedule. Everyone always rags on the Big 12 for not being a good conference but somehow Texas always finds a way to be in the Final Four in December. I don't know if it's good coaching by Elliot and his staff or them perfecting and working out the kinks by the end of the year. Texas has the longest active streak of consecutive Final Fours and although it could be broken this year as their team is young I believe they are very much in the conversation for the Final four and National Championship again. Playing at home to get to every single one of those final fours certainly helps. I'm not saying that it significantly diminishes the accomplishments they've garnered, but having hone cookin' line judges in n a fifth set against Florida definitely can't hurt. 2008 - Regional in Austin 2009 - Regional in Omaha 2010 - Regional in Austin 2012 - Regional in Austin 2013 - Regional in Lincoln 2014 - Regional in Minneapolis 2015 - Regional In Austin Please explain how 3 out of 7 on the road constitutes playing at home for every single one. During their run of final fours, 3 out of 4 times they went on the road they advanced to the Final Four so that's pretty good. 2 of those times they advanced out of Nebraska which is one of the hardest environments to play in.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Sept 20, 2016 12:13:31 GMT -5
Hawaii already has 5 losses. Two losses would put them in a very precarious position with a high 40s RPI and no Top 25 wins (possibly no Top 50 if Arizona declines slightly). I think Hawaii is the best team in the Big West and should win it, but they are on thin ice if they mess up, or if someone like Poly gets hot. Hawai'i only has 4 losses: Wisconsin (1-3) Kansas State (1-3) UCLA (0-3) Washington(2-3) Hawai'i needs to focus on getting (and staying) healthy and taking care of business in the Big West. Mitchem is back, which helps a lot. I'm not even thinking about an at-large, Hawaii needs to win the Big West and the automatic bid. My bad. I was looking at the wrong thing on Hawaii's record.
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Sept 20, 2016 13:07:38 GMT -5
Hawai'i only has 4 losses: Wisconsin (1-3) Kansas State (1-3) UCLA (0-3) Washington(2-3) Hawai'i needs to focus on getting (and staying) healthy and taking care of business in the Big West. Mitchem is back, which helps a lot. I'm not even thinking about an at-large, Hawaii needs to win the Big West and the automatic bid. My bad. I was looking at the wrong thing on Hawaii's record. No worries. I tend to agree with your sentiments- that Hawai'i needs to win the Big West. They could get in as an at-large but I would not feel confident based on selection criteria.
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Post by mikegarrison on Sept 20, 2016 13:33:22 GMT -5
My bad. I was looking at the wrong thing on Hawaii's record. No worries. I tend to agree with your sentiments- that Hawai'i needs to win the Big West. They could get in as an at-large but I would not feel confident based on selection criteria. Consider that if they don't win the conference, they will necessarily have at least one loss to someone in the conference. Maybe several. Depending on who those losses came to, they could be big factors.
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Sept 20, 2016 13:45:30 GMT -5
No worries. I tend to agree with your sentiments- that Hawai'i needs to win the Big West. They could get in as an at-large but I would not feel confident based on selection criteria. Consider that if they don't win the conference, they will necessarily have at least one loss to someone in the conference. Maybe several. Depending on who those losses came to, they could be big factors. I don't really want to consider that, Mike. Hawai'i is the best team (at least on paper) in the Big West but they need to be the best team on the court, especially as a road team because some of those Big West schools (with their obnoxious student sections) can be difficult to play at. I said at the beginning of the season (when all the injuries were announced) that Hawaii needed to focus on getting healthy, getting better, and winning the Big West and not worry so much about RPI. That should still be the focus for them. Their journey starts this week against 2 teams that want to challenge them for the Big West crown.
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