RPI Futures Week 6 (10/2/16)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI rank based on the win probabilities via Pablo rating for all remaining matches on the schedule.

RPI projected rank. (previous week rank) Team (projected wins and losses) - RPI projected SOS


1. (2) Wisconsin (24-5) - 1

2. (4) Minnesota (24-5) - 4

3. (3) Texas (22-4) - 2

4. (1) Nebraska (25-4) - 9

5. (6) Stanford (21-7) - 7

6. (7) Purdue (21-10) - 5

7. (11) San Diego (25-4) - 37

8. (5) Florida (26-3) - 42

9. (14) Washington State (26-6) - 33

10. (8) BYU (26-4) - 47

11. (9) Michigan (22-10) - 6

12. (17) North Carolina (25-5) - 46

13. (13) Oregon (21-8) - 12

14. (19) Kentucky (22-7) - 25

15. (12) Kansas State (21-8) - 11

16. (10) Michigan State (22-10) - 10

17. (16) UCLA (22-8) - 19

18. (18) Washington (22-8) - 28

19. (15) TCU (16-10) - 3

20. (20) Western Kentucky (26-3) - 81

21. (21) UNLV (25-5) - 44

22. (40) Penn State (21-10) - 15

23. (24) Missouri (23-7) - 39

24. (23) Creighton (22-8) - 34

25. (27) Kansas (22-6) - 70

26. (25) Pittsburgh (26-6) - 78

27. (42) Ohio State (21-11) - 16

28. (44) USC (19-12) - 17

29. (31) Dayton (28-2) - 153

30. (29) Florida State (23-6) - 90

31. (33) Colorado (18-12) - 23

32. (30) Hawaii (22-5) - 89

33. (22) Utah (18-13) - 14

34. (32) Coastal Carolina (24-4) - 128

35. (41) Texas A&M (19-10) - 18

36. (26) Wichita State (22-7) - 68

37. (35) Baylor (20-12) - 30

38. (28) Marquette (23-7) - 80

39. (45) SMU (22-10) - 49

40. (43) Arizona (17-15) - 8

41. (38) Georgia Tech (23-9) - 73

42. (37) Notre Dame (25-7) - 108

43. (50) Colorado State (20-9) - 56

44. (36) Illinois (18-13) - 27

45. (47) Miami-OH (23-5) - 141

46. (34) Tulsa (22-10) - 60

47. (53) Cincinnati (19-12) - 36

48. (39) Boise State (21-10) - 58

49. (48) Iowa State (15-13) - 13

50. (51) Loyola Marymount (20-10) - 62

51. (55) Cleveland State (21-7) - 116

52. (46) Texas-San Antonio (20-6) - 145

53. (52) Alabama (19-12) - 53

54. (54) Florida Gulf Coast (26-4) - 194

55. (49) Cal Poly (18-9) - 82

56. (62) Wyoming (19-12) - 52

57. (57) Northern Iowa (21-10) - 105

58. (56) UConn (21-10) - 92

59. (59) Lipscomb (19-8) - 120

60. (74) Iowa (19-13) - 51

61. (76) Hofstra (19-10) - 84

62. (63) Towson (24-7) - 165

63. (58) UCF (22-11) - 94

64. (75) Villanova (19-12) - 59

65. (65) Rice (18-11) - 72

66. (60) Arkansas State (23-7) - 148

67. (68) Southern Illinois (21-11) - 86

68. (67) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (20-8) - 133

69. (69) Ole Miss (20-11) - 79

70. (73) Pacific (17-13) - 40

71. (64) Indiana (17-16) - 24

72. (72) Northern Illinois (22-6) - 179

73. (93) Temple (18-12) - 74

74. (96) College of Charleston (19-9) - 104

75. (61) UNCW (20-8) - 130

76. (66) Missouri State (21-11) - 103

77. (90) Long Beach State (20-11) - 107

78. (86) Wisconsin-Green Bay (20-8) - 155

79. (70) Tennessee (18-13) - 76

80. (77) NC State (18-14) - 77

81. (84) Tulane (19-13) - 75

82. (80) Illinois State (20-10) - 134

83. (87) DePaul (16-14) - 48

84. (107) South Carolina (19-11) - 117

85. (85) South Dakota (26-4) - 266

86. (81) Duke (19-11) - 111

87. (71) San Diego State (17-15) - 50

88. (78) USF (20-12) - 114

89. (89) Northeastern (20-10) - 132

90. (83) UCSB (18-11) - 110

91. (97) Princeton (18-5) - 230

92. (114) Nevada (19-11) - 127

93. (82) Xavier (17-14) - 71

94. (92) Southern Miss (22-7) - 205

95. (88) James Madison (16-13) - 64

96. (79) Santa Clara (17-13) - 112

97. (101) New Mexico State (22-8) - 213

98. (94) Albany (16-8) - 154

99. (118) Gonzaga (15-13) - 83

100. (111) Fresno State (16-13) - 98

101. (121) West Virginia (14-16) - 55

102. (98) Texas Tech (13-18) - 31

103. (117) Northern Arizona (22-7) - 245

104. (99) Texas State (19-12) - 125

105. (100) Marshall (21-8) - 214

106. (113) High Point (22-7) - 235

107. (105) UT Rio Grande Valley (21-10) - 188

108. (109) Oklahoma (14-15) - 57

109. (95) Yale (18-6) - 240

110. (106) SIUE (20-7) - 237

111. (122) Pepperdine (13-17) - 35

112. (104) Portland State (19-10) - 174

113. (115) Butler (20-14) - 138

114. (102) Saint Louis (14-15) - 63

115. (116) Maryland (13-19) - 38

116. (124) Oregon State (11-20) - 21

117. (103) Bowling Green (20-9) - 210

118. (135) Sacramento State (18-12) - 140

119. (127) Toledo (15-13) - 121

120. (136) Radford (23-5) - 283

121. (130) Kennesaw State (17-11) - 152

122. (131) Rhode Island (17-9) - 178

123. (120) Oakland (18-12) - 151

124. (108) Denver (21-8) - 251

125. (133) American (23-9) - 256

126. (91) New Mexico (16-16) - 101

127. (110) Army (20-10) - 215

128. (138) Sam Houston State (17-12) - 150

129. (137) Milwaukee (15-12) - 146

130. (123) East Tennessee State (19-9) - 222

131. (152) Northern Colorado (17-11) - 184

132. (139) Auburn (12-19) - 45

133. (129) Miami-FL (13-19) - 54

134. (148) Ohio (14-15) - 113

135. (149) Saint Marys (12-17) - 69

136. (119) Samford (18-13) - 177

137. (132) UNF (18-13) - 166

138. (155) Mississippi State (16-16) - 126

139. (140) Weber State (19-8) - 264

140. (128) Utah State (13-17) - 87

141. (112) Louisville (12-18) - 66

142. (134) Arizona State (10-22) - 22

143. (143) Seton Hall (14-17) - 96

144. (175) Loyola-Chicago (14-17) - 99

145. (168) Northern Kentucky (14-13) - 139

146. (142) Portland (13-17) - 91

147. (151) Fairfield (25-7) - 303

148. (141) Cal State Northridge (11-17) - 61

149. (125) Belmont (17-10) - 231

150. (167) UC Davis (14-15) - 124

151. (171) North Dakota (19-13) - 212

152. (144) Stephen F. Austin (19-10) - 252

153. (150) Howard (22-5) - 314

154. (153) VCU (18-13) - 182

155. (146) UC Irvine (13-18) - 85

156. (179) Chattanooga (17-12) - 207

157. (161) Elon (20-13) - 211

158. (126) Georgia (16-15) - 163

159. (163) St. Johns (16-15) - 157

160. (162) Northwestern (9-23) - 32

161. (147) LSU (8-21) - 20

162. (172) Seattle (15-13) - 171

163. (145) Illinois-Chicago (17-14) - 195

164. (156) Delaware (9-20) - 41

165. (164) Wright State (12-17) - 95

166. (159) Texas-Arlington (16-15) - 167

167. (173) Utah Valley (13-15) - 123

168. (181) Virginia Tech (13-18) - 109

169. (170) Cal (9-21) - 43

170. (154) Austin Peay (21-12) - 269

171. (166) Murray State (16-12) - 232

172. (189) Sacred Heart (20-9) - 291

173. (182) Idaho State (12-17) - 118

174. (176) Furman (14-14) - 164

175. (200) Duquesne (18-11) - 261

[n00b]

Things that stand out to me...

1) Get ready for that one poster to constantly blast the RPI for its east coast bias. The WCC, Mountain West and Big West are not in good shape.

2) The Missouri Valley is wayyy down. Four teams made the tourney last year but they're in danger of being a one-bid league.

3) Taking the Valley's place seems to be the American. That conference has improved tremendously. No elite teams but three squads in good shape to get a bid and EIGHT teams in the top 100. That's more than the Big 12, ACC, SEC, WCC, and Mountain West. Impressive.

4) The RPI is not treating the SEC as nicely as it has in the past. Only 3 teams in that top 50.

[c4ndlelight]

Oct 3, 2016 19:20:32 GMT -5 n00b said:

Things that stand out to me...

1) Get ready for that one poster to constantly blast the RPI for its east coast bias. The WCC, Mountain West and Big West are not in good shape.

2) The Missouri Valley is wayyy down. Four teams made the tourney last year but they're in danger of being a one-bid league.

3) Taking the Valley's place seems to be the American. That conference has improved tremendously. No elite teams but three squads in good shape to get a bid and EIGHT teams in the top 100. That's more than the Big 12, ACC, SEC, WCC, and Mountain West. Impressive.

4) The RPI is not treating the SEC as nicely as it has in the past. Only 3 teams in that top 50.

MWC is looking at 3 possible bids. It's doing pretty well.
I don't think this is too unkind to the WCC. They are looking solid for 2 hosting seeds, and would be at 4 bids if Santa Clara didn't tank. LMU's issues are self-inflicted.

Big West is in trouble though, but it looks like LBSU is the #2 team and they took too many bad losses early.


I'm most curious about the ACC getting 5. Notre Dame and Georgia Tech could be up at 42/43 with two top 50 wins between them (GT over Coastal Carolina and winner of their H2H). Very curious to see how they would do.

Big XII will be interesting, but that's mostly because I have no idea how the conference will finish after Texas and the Kansas schools.

[n00b]

Oct 3, 2016 19:38:55 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

MWC is looking at 3 possible bids. It's doing pretty well.
I don't think this is too unkind to the WCC. They are looking solid for 2 hosting seeds, and would be at 4 bids if Santa Clara didn't tank. LMU's issues are self-inflicted.

Big West is in trouble though, but it looks like LBSU is the #2 team and they took too many bad losses early.


I'm most curious about the ACC getting 5. Notre Dame and Georgia Tech could be up at 42/43 with two top 50 wins between them (GT over Coastal Carolina and winner of their H2H). Very curious to see how they would do.

Big XII will be interesting, but that's mostly because I have no idea how the conference will finish after Texas and the Kansas schools.

Those three Mountain West schools combined for 1 non-conference top 50 win. They aren't resumes you want to be on the bubble with. Those resumes actually seem a lot like those ACC schools except GT and ND will have a few more chances for signature wins against UNC, Florida St and Pitt.

In the Big 12, TCU seems to have played the RPI game well and is in good shape. Baylor and Iowa State could go either way.

[bluepenquin]

Here is a bracket matchups based on the RPI Futures. I am curious at looking at some potential possibilities. This is not a prediction.

1 bid conferences are determined by who is projected with the most conference wins per Pablo.
There has to be the minimum number of fly-ins as possible once the 16 seeds and other 48 are determined.
Try to avoid repeat 1st and 2nd round matches if possible.

I made two overrides: I switched Michigan State and UCLA. They have extraordinarily little difference in RPI, and I just don't think it will likely that 6 B1G seeds with only 3 PAC.
Also switched Cincinnati and Boise State. I also think Tulsa isn't likely to get a bid with this RPI rank, but I left them in. I can see where it becomes difficult to find a home for the last PAC team that isn't the 4th team in the sub. All fly-ins can be changed as long as it doesn't create two from the same conference in the same sub. I probably made a misstate in here somewhere - but under these rules there becomes a finite number of possibilities.


Last 4 teams in: Boise State, Tulsa, Illinois, & Colorado State. Last 4 out: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Loyola Marymount, & Cleveland State.

* Fly-in, ** Fly-in, but a drive-in was possible with some rearranging.

BYU (Michigan State *, Utah, Howard *)

Florida (Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast, College of Charleston)

Kansas State (Missouri, Wichita State, Arizona *)

Kentucky (Illinois, Georgia Tech, Chattanooga)

Michigan (Pittsburgh, Dayton, American *)

Minnesota (Creighton, Baylor *, Wisconsin-Green Bay)

Nebraska (Kansas, Tulsa, South Dakota)

North Carolina (Washington *, Coastal Carolina, Radford)

Oregon (Hawaii *, SMU **, Sacred Heart *)

Purdue (Colorado *, Western Kentucky, Miami-OH)

San Diego (USC, Northern Arizona *, New Mexico State *)

Stanford (TCU *, Colorado State *, Fairfield *)

Texas (Texas A&M, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Texas Southern)

UCLA (Ohio State **, UNLV, Albany *)

Washington State (Penn State *, Boise State, Princeton *)

Wisconsin (Notre Dame, Marquette, SIUE)

[c4ndlelight]

Oct 3, 2016 19:48:46 GMT -5 n00b said:

Oct 3, 2016 19:38:55 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

MWC is looking at 3 possible bids. It's doing pretty well.
I don't think this is too unkind to the WCC. They are looking solid for 2 hosting seeds, and would be at 4 bids if Santa Clara didn't tank. LMU's issues are self-inflicted.

Big West is in trouble though, but it looks like LBSU is the #2 team and they took too many bad losses early.


I'm most curious about the ACC getting 5. Notre Dame and Georgia Tech could be up at 42/43 with two top 50 wins between them (GT over Coastal Carolina and winner of their H2H). Very curious to see how they would do.

Big XII will be interesting, but that's mostly because I have no idea how the conference will finish after Texas and the Kansas schools.

Those three Mountain West schools combined for 1 non-conference top 50 win. They aren't resumes you want to be on the bubble with. Those resumes actually seem a lot like those ACC schools except GT and ND will have a few more chances for signature wins against UNC, Florida St and Pitt.

In the Big 12, TCU seems to have played the RPI game well and is in good shape. Baylor and Iowa State could go either way.

I guess I just think it's more likely that Colorado St. and Boise St. can pick up a Top 25 win against UNLV than Notre Dame can against UNC (and that's what their records bake in too).

[spikerthemovie]

I'm most intrigued by Florida. After losing at home, convincingly, to Kentucky, they're only projected for one more loss this season? I guess that's a testament to the weakness of the SEC (oh, and now that I look at Florida's schedule, the fact that they don't have to play at Kentucky).

[FreeBall]

Oct 3, 2016 21:14:31 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Here is a bracket matchups based on the RPI Futures. I am curious at looking at some potential possibilities. This is not a prediction.

1 bid conferences are determined by who is projected with the most conference wins per Pablo.
There has to be the minimum number of fly-ins as possible once the 16 seeds and other 48 are determined.
Try to avoid repeat 1st and 2nd round matches if possible.

I made two overrides: I switched Michigan State and UCLA. They have extraordinarily little difference in RPI, and I just don't think it will likely that 6 B1G seeds with only 3 PAC.
Also switched Cincinnati and Boise State. I also think Tulsa isn't likely to get a bid with this RPI rank, but I left them in. I can see where it becomes difficult to find a home for the last PAC team that isn't the 4th team in the sub. All fly-ins can be changed as long as it doesn't create two from the same conference in the same sub. I probably made a misstate in here somewhere - but under these rules there becomes a finite number of possibilities.


Last 4 teams in: Boise State, Tulsa, Illinois, & Colorado State. Last 4 out: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Loyola Marymount, & Cleveland State.

* Fly-in, ** Fly-in, but a drive-in was possible with some rearranging.

BYU (Utah, Baylor *, Howard *)
Florida (Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast, College of Charleston)
Kansas State (Missouri, Wichita State, Arizona *)
Kentucky (Illinois, Georgia Tech, Chattanooga)
Michigan (Pittsburgh, Dayton, American *)
Minnesota (Creighton, Baylor *, Wisconsin-Green Bay)
Nebraska (Kansas, Tulsa, South Dakota)
North Carolina (Washington *, Coastal Carolina, Radford)
Oregon (Hawaii *, SMU **, Sacred Heart *)
Purdue (Colorado *, Western Kentucky, Miami-OH)
San Diego (USC, Northern Arizona *, New Mexico State *)
Stanford (TCU *, Colorado State *, Fairfield *)
Texas (Texas A&M, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Texas Southern)
UCLA (Ohio State **, UNLV, Albany *)
Washington State (Penn State *, Boise State, Princeton *)
Wisconsin (Notre Dame, Marquette, SIUE)

You have Baylor in two of the groupings, at BYU and at Minnesota.

[bluepenquin]

Oct 3, 2016 21:54:17 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

Oct 3, 2016 21:14:31 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Here is a bracket matchups based on the RPI Futures. I am curious at looking at some potential possibilities. This is not a prediction.

1 bid conferences are determined by who is projected with the most conference wins per Pablo.
There has to be the minimum number of fly-ins as possible once the 16 seeds and other 48 are determined.
Try to avoid repeat 1st and 2nd round matches if possible.

I made two overrides: I switched Michigan State and UCLA. They have extraordinarily little difference in RPI, and I just don't think it will likely that 6 B1G seeds with only 3 PAC.
Also switched Cincinnati and Boise State. I also think Tulsa isn't likely to get a bid with this RPI rank, but I left them in. I can see where it becomes difficult to find a home for the last PAC team that isn't the 4th team in the sub. All fly-ins can be changed as long as it doesn't create two from the same conference in the same sub. I probably made a misstate in here somewhere - but under these rules there becomes a finite number of possibilities.


Last 4 teams in: Boise State, Tulsa, Illinois, & Colorado State. Last 4 out: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Loyola Marymount, & Cleveland State.

* Fly-in, ** Fly-in, but a drive-in was possible with some rearranging.

BYU (Utah, Baylor *, Howard *)
Florida (Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast, College of Charleston)
Kansas State (Missouri, Wichita State, Arizona *)
Kentucky (Illinois, Georgia Tech, Chattanooga)
Michigan (Pittsburgh, Dayton, American *)
Minnesota (Creighton, Baylor *, Wisconsin-Green Bay)
Nebraska (Kansas, Tulsa, South Dakota)
North Carolina (Washington *, Coastal Carolina, Radford)
Oregon (Hawaii *, SMU **, Sacred Heart *)
Purdue (Colorado *, Western Kentucky, Miami-OH)
San Diego (USC, Northern Arizona *, New Mexico State *)
Stanford (TCU *, Colorado State *, Fairfield *)
Texas (Texas A&M, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Texas Southern)
UCLA (Ohio State **, UNLV, Albany *)
Washington State (Penn State *, Boise State, Princeton *)
Wisconsin (Notre Dame, Marquette, SIUE)

You have Baylor in two of the groupings, at BYU and at Minnesota.

Thanks - I have corrected.  Formula error on a concatenate function.  S/B Michigan State at BYU.

[n00b]

Oct 3, 2016 21:14:31 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Here is a bracket matchups based on the RPI Futures. I am curious at looking at some potential possibilities. This is not a prediction.

1 bid conferences are determined by who is projected with the most conference wins per Pablo.
There has to be the minimum number of fly-ins as possible once the 16 seeds and other 48 are determined.
Try to avoid repeat 1st and 2nd round matches if possible.

I made two overrides: I switched Michigan State and UCLA. They have extraordinarily little difference in RPI, and I just don't think it will likely that 6 B1G seeds with only 3 PAC.
Also switched Cincinnati and Boise State. I also think Tulsa isn't likely to get a bid with this RPI rank, but I left them in. I can see where it becomes difficult to find a home for the last PAC team that isn't the 4th team in the sub. All fly-ins can be changed as long as it doesn't create two from the same conference in the same sub. I probably made a misstate in here somewhere - but under these rules there becomes a finite number of possibilities.


Last 4 teams in: Boise State, Tulsa, Illinois, & Colorado State. Last 4 out: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Loyola Marymount, & Cleveland State.

* Fly-in, ** Fly-in, but a drive-in was possible with some rearranging.

BYU (Michigan State *, Utah, Howard *)

Florida (Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast, College of Charleston)

Kansas State (Missouri, Wichita State, Arizona *)

Kentucky (Illinois, Georgia Tech, Chattanooga)

Michigan (Pittsburgh, Dayton, American *)

Minnesota (Creighton, Baylor *, Wisconsin-Green Bay)

Nebraska (Kansas, Tulsa, South Dakota)

North Carolina (Washington *, Coastal Carolina, Radford)

Oregon (Hawaii *, SMU **, Sacred Heart *)

Purdue (Colorado *, Western Kentucky, Miami-OH)

San Diego (USC, Northern Arizona *, New Mexico State *)

Stanford (TCU *, Colorado State *, Fairfield *)

Texas (Texas A&M, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Texas Southern)

UCLA (Ohio State **, UNLV, Albany *)

Washington State (Penn State *, Boise State, Princeton *)

Wisconsin (Notre Dame, Marquette, SIUE)

I was playing around with this as well and noticed that the MAC tournament will at AT Northern Illinois. With that as a home match, they'll be favored over Miami and put the Redhawks right on the bubble. Miami has wins over Missouri and Cincinnati. Maybe good enough, maybe not.

[Victory At Hand]

Wow, Wisconsin really does deserve that #1 RPi rating. Love watching Haggerty play.

[dcvolleyball]

So this suggests that projected finish for Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska is 16-4 in the Big Ten.

[trianglevolleyball]

This is a list of how many losses each of the top 16 schools can take in the rest of their season along with the games that would most likely fill those losses (it's done by hand so I may miss some statistically tougher Pablo matches)

1. Wisconsin (24-5) - 4 (@ Neb, @minn, vsMinn, vsPSU, @mich) *Taking one of the three against MN and Neb without major slip-ups should get them a regional host

2. Minnesota (24-5) - 4 (@ Neb, @wis, vsNeb, vsWis, @psu) *More difficult for them to be at or under 4 losses than Wisconsin playing both PSU and Neb twice

3. Texas (22-4) - 2 (@ KU, @baylor, vsKState) *Despite struggling, they've already won two of their most difficult conference matches and sit in good position to host a regional

4. Nebraska (25-4) - 3 (@minn, vsWisc, vsMinn, @psu, @osu) *Ohio State as the fifth most difficult match is a lot scarier than it should be for the huskers

5. Stanford (21-7) - 4 (@ UCLA, vsWSU, @usc, vsOregon, vsUCLA) *Additionally still have the dangerous mountain trip. Could see Stanford hosting but also could see them fall from the top 10 RPI w/o Hodson

6. Purdue (21-10) - 6 (@ Neb, wisc, @psu, @osu, MSU, ill, vs PSU) *Very tough road schedule for Purdue after losing 3 of their first four conference games at home

7. San Diego (25-4) - 2 (@byu, vsLMU, @pacific) *Could San Diego sneak into the top 4 with a one loss conference schedule?

8. Florida (26-3) - 1 (@uk, @mizzou, @texas A&M) *Would be nice if someone smarter than me could show what Florida's expected RPI would be if they win out. Two losses drops them from top 8.

9. Washington State (26-6) - 4 (stanford, @oregon, vsOrego, vsWash, vsUSC) *Last two weeks of the season very critical with the mountain trip followed by home games against USC and Washington

10. BYU (26-4) - 2 (vsSanDiego, @lmu, @pacific) *Conference lacks usual depth which means less grueling but also less room for error

11. Michigan (22-10) - 7 (@ Neb, wisc, @minn, vsWisc, @purdue, MSU, vsPSU, vsMSU) *These Big Ten teams really can't afford slipups against Iowa, Maryland or Indiana

12. North Carolina (25-5) - 3 (@fsu, @pitt, @notre Dame, vsFSU) *FInishes the season with 6 easy home games, so this next month is important

13. Oregon (21-8) - 6 (stanford, @wsu, @ UCLA, @wash, @usc, vsWSU, vsUCLA) *Mountain trip not included. Lots of opportunities for big wins but also opportunities for big losses

14. Kentucky (22-7) - 3 (vsUF, @mizzou, vsTexas A&M, @bama) *After a lackluster preseason, they've played and won their most difficult conference match. Very easy first half conference schedule otherwise

15. Kansas State (21-8) - 4 (@texas, @ KU, vsKU, @tcu, vsBaylor) *Do RPI top 25 victories help for seeding? Could be helped by getting wins against Kansas and TCU if they can stay in top 25.

16. Michigan State (22-10) - 7 (wisc, @minn, vsMinn, @purdue, @mich, @osu, ill, vsPSU) *If either MSU of Michigan sweeps the season series the other would likely be knocked out of seed contention

IMO Penn State is looking very dangerous and the non Big Ten teams should be rooting them to screw over some of these hopeful Big Ten seeds. With Purdue failing to produce an upset, the Big Three of the Big Ten seem most challenged by PSU. The Big Three should all be regional hosts if they only lose 11 total more matches (5 of whom will be to one another) and all have record of at least 15-5 in the Big Ten.

[bluepenquin]

Florida's conference schedule is much easier than past seasons. They play Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Missouri only once. This is a big part of the reason they are limited in their RPI. It seems unlikely that they could finish in the top 4 in RPI - and I just don't see much on their schedule that makes me think they would move up from their RPI. They have top 25 wins against Oregon and Michigan State and losses against Nebraska and Kentucky. That is 'fine' for getting a seed, but that doesn't look like anything that will get a regional host. In fact, that is a resume more likely to cause them to get downgraded from #4 to #5.

Don't count out Penn State from getting a seed. The opportunity to move up in RPI is much greater for B1G and PAC teams. They have many more 50-50 and 60-40 matches than teams from other conferences - so winning those toss up matches can cause teams to move up quickly (Ohio State, Illinois, etc...). They are also in more jeopardy of losing and missing the tournament. There is much less upside for teams in smaller conferences because the win probabilities have already factored in winning a high portion of their remaining matches.

Generally for the power conferences - moving up from 30-35 to #16 is a lot easier than moving from #16 to #4. Those top teams in the RPI have a safety net. Purdue goes 0-2 for the week and move up a spot in RPI. It is probably going to be very hard for any PAC team other than Stanford to get up into that range.

[bluepenquin]

Oct 3, 2016 23:08:27 GMT -5 n00b said:

Oct 3, 2016 21:14:31 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I was playing around with this as well and noticed that the MAC tournament will at AT Northern Illinois. With that as a home match, they'll be favored over Miami and put the Redhawks right on the bubble. Miami has wins over Missouri and Cincinnati. Maybe good enough, maybe not.

Yeah, I didn't take into account conference tournaments and some of these conferences are already going to be very competitive. 

The way this worked out created a reasonable bracket.  But it doesn't take much for there to be no fly-ins for North Carolina.  If either the Southern or Colonial conference tournament comes up different (and these are two very competitive conferences at the top) then there would be no fly-ins for UNC and we would have to find a different destination for Washington/UCLA/Colorado that is likely to be much less appealing.  Texas looks like they may get locked in w/o fly-ins.

Also, noticed that Colorado could be a viable host (if a seeded team is unable to host) if both Colorado State and Denver (have to win their tournament) get in.  Otherwise, probably Penn State/Ohio State.  Someone like Coastal Carolina could be an option with the least travel in the UNC example - but they would have to put in a bid to the NCAA?