RPI Futures Week 8 (10/16/16)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI ranking based on the win probability of each scheduled future match using the Pablo rating.

RPI Future Rank. (Last Week Rank) Team (Projected Wins - Losses) - RPI SOS

1. (1) Wisconsin (23-6) - 2

2. (2) Nebraska (26-3) - 8

3. (3) Texas (22-4) - 3

4. (4) Minnesota (23-6) - 4

5. (6) Florida (26-3) - 46

6. (11) San Diego (25-3) - 40

7. (15) Penn State (24-7) - 24

8. (9) Michigan (22-10) - 7

9. (5) Stanford (19-9) - 6

10. (14) North Carolina (26-4) - 56

11. (16) Washington (24-6) - 32

12. (8) Michigan State (23-9) - 10

13. (7) BYU (25-5) - 42

14. (13) Kansas State (21-8) - 12

15. (17) Kentucky (23-6) - 31

16. (22) Kansas (24-4) - 70

17. (24) UCLA (22-8) - 20

18. (12) Purdue (19-12) - 5

19. (19) Western Kentucky (26-3) - 78

20. (21) Missouri (23-7) - 29

21. (23) Creighton (23-7) - 30

22. (20) UNLV (25-5) - 51

23. (27) Utah (20-11) - 14

24. (10) Washington State (23-9) - 34

25. (36) USC (20-11) - 16

26. (33) Wichita State (23-6) - 52

27. (18) Oregon (19-10) - 13

28. (25) TCU (14-12) - 1

29. (32) Marquette (24-6) - 74

30. (26) Arizona (19-13) - 9

31. (28) Dayton (28-2) - 146

32. (34) Ohio State (21-11) - 15

33. (29) Texas A&M (20-9) - 17

34. (38) Florida State (23-6) - 90

35. (39) Colorado State (22-7) - 62

36. (30) Pittsburgh (24-8) - 73

37. (31) Baylor (21-11) - 28

38. (35) Coastal Carolina (24-4) - 127

39. (37) Hawaii (21-6) - 77

40. (44) Cincinnati (21-10) - 36

41. (41) Colorado (17-13) - 19

42. (45) Illinois (19-12) - 35

43. (52) Iowa State (16-12) - 11

44. (40) Georgia Tech (23-9) - 76

45. (42) Notre Dame (25-7) - 110

46. (46) Miami-OH (23-5) - 135

47. (43) SMU (22-10) - 48

48. (48) Boise State (22-9) - 66

49. (47) Cleveland State (22-6) - 115

50. (57) Northern Iowa (22-9) - 92

51. (54) Loyola Marymount (20-10) - 64

52. (50) Cal Poly (19-8) - 87

53. (56) Florida Gulf Coast (26-4) - 190

54. (70) UCF (23-10) - 91

55. (49) Hofstra (20-9) - 86

56. (51) Iowa (20-12) - 58

57. (60) Texas-San Antonio (20-6) - 141

58. (58) Southern Illinois (21-11) - 81

59. (69) Missouri State (22-10) - 105

60. (66) Long Beach State (21-10) - 109

61. (63) Alabama (19-12) - 53

62. (65) Duke (21-9) - 111

63. (68) Villanova (19-12) - 61

64. (53) Temple (19-11) - 75

65. (64) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (20-8) - 136

66. (61) Wyoming (18-13) - 57

67. (77) Pacific (17-13) - 43

68. (67) Rice (18-11) - 82

69. (81) Northeastern (22-8) - 139

70. (79) Towson (23-8) - 162

71. (73) Arkansas State (22-8) - 152

72. (80) Nevada (20-10) - 123

73. (75) Indiana (16-17) - 25

74. (59) Tulsa (19-13) - 60

75. (72) Northern Illinois (22-6) - 193

76. (76) Lipscomb (19-8) - 132

77. (55) UConn (19-12) - 89

78. (62) Tulane (19-13) - 72

79. (83) UNCW (19-9) - 130

80. (89) Tennessee (18-13) - 85

81. (74) College of Charleston (18-10) - 108

82. (99) USF (21-11) - 121

83. (71) San Diego State (17-15) - 47

84. (88) Princeton (19-4) - 240

85. (82) Gonzaga (16-12) - 84

86. (90) Texas State (20-11) - 126

87. (95) Oklahoma (15-14) - 54

88. (93) Wisconsin-Green Bay (19-9) - 156

89. (87) DePaul (15-15) - 45

90. (86) New Mexico State (23-7) - 205

91. (91) NC State (18-14) - 88

92. (78) Ole Miss (17-14) - 79

93. (98) Santa Clara (18-12) - 112

94. (100) Xavier (17-14) - 69

95. (96) Albany (17-7) - 167

96. (108) Saint Louis (15-14) - 55

97. (94) Southern Miss (22-7) - 210

98. (102) South Carolina (18-12) - 119

99. (85) South Dakota (25-5) - 266

100. (114) Northern Arizona (23-6) - 249

101. (84) UCSB (16-13) - 100

102. (97) Marshall (21-8) - 212

103. (110) UT Rio Grande Valley (22-9) - 189

104. (92) James Madison (15-14) - 65

105. (104) Kennesaw State (18-10) - 155

106. (121) East Tennessee State (20-8) - 215

107. (107) American (25-7) - 246

108. (119) Bowling Green (21-8) - 206

109. (103) Illinois State (17-13) - 131

110. (106) Oakland (19-11) - 150

111. (116) Butler (20-14) - 133

112. (105) Yale (18-6) - 245

113. (101) High Point (21-8) - 229

114. (129) Auburn (14-17) - 49

115. (109) Texas Tech (12-19) - 27

116. (128) Toledo (16-12) - 128

117. (115) West Virginia (13-17) - 44

118. (124) Northern Kentucky (16-11) - 140

119. (113) Fresno State (15-14) - 101

120. (118) Maryland (12-20) - 38

121. (120) Denver (21-8) - 244

122. (117) Oregon State (11-20) - 22

123. (111) Radford (22-6) - 283

124. (149) Portland (15-15) - 106

125. (127) Pepperdine (11-19) - 37

126. (123) Ohio (15-14) - 107

127. (133) UNF (18-13) - 164

128. (142) Miami-FL (13-19) - 50

129. (131) Northern Colorado (18-10) - 192

130. (140) SIUE (19-8) - 235

131. (122) LSU (10-19) - 18

132. (137) Army (20-10) - 216

133. (139) Utah State (13-17) - 80

134. (134) North Dakota (21-11) - 217

135. (148) Arizona State (10-22) - 23

136. (135) Milwaukee (15-12) - 147

137. (112) Sacramento State (16-14) - 145

138. (125) Rhode Island (16-10) - 186

139. (141) Portland State (17-12) - 174

140. (153) Austin Peay (23-10) - 265

141. (162) Cal (10-20) - 39

142. (136) New Mexico (15-17) - 102

143. (154) Utah Valley (14-14) - 122

144. (146) Fairfield (26-6) - 305

145. (126) Sam Houston State (16-13) - 158

146. (143) VCU (18-13) - 177

147. (151) Loyola-Chicago (14-17) - 95

148. (138) Mississippi State (15-17) - 113

149. (145) Saint Marys (12-17) - 71

150. (177) East Carolina (17-13) - 184

151. (159) Murray State (18-10) - 232

152. (156) UC Irvine (13-18) - 83

153. (132) Samford (17-14) - 175

154. (169) Idaho State (14-15) - 124

155. (147) UC Davis (14-15) - 117

156. (168) Delaware (10-19) - 41

157. (150) Georgia (16-15) - 149

158. (158) Seton Hall (14-17) - 103

159. (130) Chattanooga (17-12) - 209

160. (155) Howard (23-5) - 315

161. (144) Cal State Northridge (10-18) - 59

162. (173) Duquesne (19-10) - 264

163. (157) St. Johns (17-14) - 170

164. (179) Liberty (16-12) - 203

165. (160) Elon (19-14) - 199

166. (164) Louisville (11-19) - 63

167. (191) Florida Atlantic (15-13) - 182

168. (166) Northwestern (9-23) - 33

169. (152) Stephen F. Austin (18-11) - 258

170. (181) UNC Greensboro (16-13) - 191

171. (176) Illinois-Chicago (16-14) - 188

172. (167) Seattle (14-14) - 165

173. (161) Belmont (16-11) - 231

174. (163) Texas-Arlington (16-15) - 171

175. (165) Virginia Tech (13-18) - 114

[c4ndlelight]

Ducks looked so well-positioned to host subregionals up till now. I guess that's what losing at home does

[ay2013]

I'm still trying to figure out this whole Michigan thing....

[Northern lights]

Oct 17, 2016 19:02:16 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

I'm still trying to figure out this whole Michigan thing....

It's in the water

[Cubicle No More ...]

Oct 17, 2016 18:48:06 GMT -5 UofIlliniVBFan said:

Historically, is there much difference between the RPI top 16 teams and the 16 teams seeded in the NCAA tournament?

much difference? i would say no. not a big difference. but this comes with some clarification.

if/when there are differences, it's in a couple ways. the seeds won't match the order of the RPI exactly. teams will get moved up or down. also, a couple of RPI teams in the 11-16 range may get bumped for teams outside the top 16.

these difference maybe be due to a number of things: head-to-head matchups, record against top 25 RPI or top 50 RPI teams. a team could get moved up or down based on geography as well.

i'm sure there are other factors as well, and other posters can probably identify those, if i've forgotten any ...

[c4ndlelight]

Oct 17, 2016 19:02:16 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

I'm still trying to figure out this whole Michigan thing....

Michigan has a great record - and look at how they scheduled OOC - great records and a lot of projected RPI bonus points for teams that aren't terribly hard to beat. They're also going to be one of maybe two teams to get an extra bonus for "tough" OOC scheduling:
Miami-OH 16-4 (*Top 50 bonus)
UNI 15-7 (*Top 50 bonus)
K-State 15-5 (*Top 25 bonus)
G Tech 15-5 (*Top 50 bonus)
American 18-6
Coastal Carolina 15-4 (*Top 50 bonus)
Pitt 14-6 (LOSS)

Even the poor teams don't really hurt them except Eastern Mich.
St. Louis 10-12
TN State 12-12
Auburn 11-10
Colgate 10-9
EMU 7-14

Add that to an 11-9 projected B1G record (with a schedule that sees them skip MD & Rutgers) and you've got a good record with an incredible SOS.

[c4ndlelight]

Another team that scheduled immaculately was BYU.

Rice 14-8
Cal Poly 12-6
Wyoming 12-8
Ohio St. 13-7 (T50 Bonus)
Boise 15-6 (T50 Bonus)
Mizzou 16-3 (T25 Bonus)
Utah 14-5 (LOSS)
UNLV 18-2 (T25 Bonus - yes, double bonus for beating UNLV)

UVU 9-11
Idaho St. 10-11
LIU 8-12
CSUN 6-12

They have basically the same SOS as San Diego, who played Stanford, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, UCLA, and the Beach OOC.

[bluepenquin]

Teams projected to get the scheduling bonus.

Wisconsin
Texas
Minnesota
Stanford
North Carolina
Purdue
Creighton
Wichita State
TCU
Texas A&M
Coastal Carolina
Northern Iowa


Michigan just misses out because Northern Iowa is #55 in unadjusted RPI - so they could pick up. North Carolina and TCU is dependent on SMU staying in the Top 50.

[bluepenquin]

Here is the +1/-1 projections. This gives the projected RPI Rank if the team wins one extra game or an extra loss. Spots 5 through 17 or 25 is very narrow so there is more variance than usual. I think this means that where a team will rank is dependent more on what teams around them do than usual. Wins are based on conference wins, the 1st set is the rounded projected winner (remove partial wins). This also assumes no change in projected bonus points - which given how close some of these spots are...

We will start with the Big Ten.

Current RPI Future Rank. Team (proj conference wins - RPI rank) (+1 conference win - RPI rank) (-1 conference win - RPI rank)

1. Wisconsin (15 Wins-3) (16 Wins-1) (14 Wins-3)
2. Nebraska (17 Wins-1) (18 Wins-1) (16 Wins-3)
4. Minnesota (15 Wins-4) (16 Wins-4) (14 Wins-4)
7. Penn State (16 Wins-7) (17 Wins-5) (15 Wins-13)
8. Michigan (11 Wins-11) (12 Wins-6) (10 Wins-16)
12. Michigan State (12 Wins-11) (13 Wins-6) (11 Wins-16)
18. Purdue (9 Wins-17) (10 Wins-13) (8 Wins-21)
32. Ohio State (11 Wins-30) (12 Wins-24) (10 Wins-34)
42. Illinois (12 Wins-44) (13 Wins-39) (11 Wins-50)
56. Iowa (10 Wins-55) (11 Wins-51) (9 Wins-62)
73. Indiana (5 Wiins-73) (6 Wins-64) (4 Wins-86)

[bluepenquin]

PAC 12.

9. Stanford (13 Wins-7) (14 Wins-5) (12 Wins-15)
11. Washington (14 Wins-12) (15 Wins-7) (13 Wins-18)
17. UCLA (13 Wins-17) (14 Wins-14) (12 Wins-22)
23. Utah (11 Wins-24) (12 Wins-20) (10 Wins-33)
24. Washington State (13 Wins-24) (14 Wins-19) (12 Wins-25)
25. USC (12 Wins-27) (13 Wins-24) (11 Wins-36)
27. Oregon (12 Wins-25) (13 Wins-19) (11 Wins-32)
30. Arizona (11 Wins-32) (12 Wins-25) (10 Wins-37)
41. Colorado (9 Wins-43) (10 Wins-38) (8 Wins-50)

[bluepenquin]

Big 12, West Coast, ACC, SEC

3. Texas (14 Wins-3) (15 Wins-1) (13 Wins-4)
14. Kansas State (10 Wins-14) (11 Wins-7) (9 Wins-18)
16. Kansas (13 Wins-16) (14 Wins-7) (12 Wins-18)
28. TCU (7 Wins-28) (8 Wins-22) (6 Wins-34)
37. Baylor (9 Wins-37) (10 Wins-32) (8 Wins-40)
43. Iowa State (8 Wins-41) (9 Wins-35) (7 Wins-49)



6. San Diego (16 Wins-6) (17 Wins-5) (15 Wins-15)
13. BYU (14 Wins-13) (15 Wins-7) (13 Wins-19)
51. Loyola Marymount (11 Wins-51) (12 Wins-47) (10 Wins-59)
67. Pacific (11 Wins-65) (12 Wins-60) (10 Wins-83)
85. Gonzaga (9 Wins-85) (10 Wins-71) (8 Wins-101)



10. North Carolina (18 Wins-10) (19 Wins-5) (17 Wins-16)
34. Florida State (16 Wins-34) (17 Wins-28) (15 Wins-39)
36. Pittsburgh (15 Wins-36) (16 Wins-32) (14 Wins-40)
44. Georgia Tech (14 Wins-46) (15 Wins-40) (13 Wins-51)
45. Notre Dame (16 Wins-45) (17 Wins-40) (15 Wins-50)
62. Duke (15 Wins-60) (16 Wins-41) (14 Wins-65)



5. Florida (16 Wins-6) (17 Wins-5) (15 Wins-13)
15. Kentucky (16 Wins-14) (17 Wins-7) (15 Wins-18)
20. Missouri (14 Wins-21) (15 Wins-17) (13 Wins-24)
33. Texas A&M (14 Wins-31) (15 Wins-24) (13 Wins-36)
61. Alabama (8 Wins-61) (9 Wins-53) (7 Wins-69)

[bluepenquin]

And the rest:

19. Western Kentucky (13 Wins-19) (14 Wins-12) (12 Wins-22)
21. Creighton (17 Wins-21) (18 Wins-17) (16 Wins-24)
22. UNLV (14 Wins-22) (15 Wins-17) (13 Wins-25)
26. Wichita State (16 Wins-25) (17 Wins-19) (15 Wins-31)
29. Marquette (14 Wins-28) (15 Wins-23) (13 Wins-34)
31. Dayton (13 Wins-32) (14 Wins-25) (12 Wins-38)
35. Colorado State (16 Wins-34) (17 Wins-28) (15 Wins-39)
38. Coastal Carolina (15 Wins-37) (-) (14 Wins-40)
39. Hawaii (14 Wins-39) (15 Wins-32) (13 Wins-45)
40. Cincinnati (16 Wins-40) (17 Wins-34) (15 Wins-45)
46. Miami-OH (15 Wins-45) (16 Wins-39) (14 Wins-60)
47. SMU (15 Wins-45) (16 Wins-40) (14 Wins-50)
48. Boise State (13 Wins-46) (14 Wins-40) (12 Wins-51)
49. Cleveland State (13 Wins-44) (14 Wins-41) (12 Wins-53)
50. Northern Iowa (13 Wins-50) (14 Wins-41) (12 Wins-52)
52. Cal Poly (12 Wins-52) (13 Wins-47) (11 Wins-59)
53. Florida Gulf Coast (12 Wins-53) (13 Wins-49) (11 Wins-59)
54. UCF (13 Wins-54) (14 Wins-51) (12 Wins-61)
55. Hofstra (10 Wins-55) (11 Wins-51) (9 Wins-63)
57. Texas-San Antonio (11 Wins-54) (12 Wins-50) (10 Wins-62)
58. Southern Illinois (12 Wins-59) (13 Wins-53) (11 Wins-68)
59. Missouri State (13 Wins-60) (14 Wins-53) (12 Wins-69)
60. Long Beach State (14 Wins-60) (15 Wins-52) (13 Wins-64)

[ay2013]

Oct 17, 2016 19:44:33 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Oct 17, 2016 19:02:16 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

I'm still trying to figure out this whole Michigan thing....

Michigan has a great record - and look at how they scheduled OOC - great records and a lot of projected RPI bonus points for teams that aren't terribly hard to beat. They're also going to be one of maybe two teams to get an extra bonus for "tough" OOC scheduling:
Miami-OH 16-4 (*Top 50 bonus)
UNI 15-7 (*Top 50 bonus)
K-State 15-5 (*Top 25 bonus)
G Tech 15-5 (*Top 50 bonus)
American 18-6
Coastal Carolina 15-4 (*Top 50 bonus)
Pitt 14-6 (LOSS)

Even the poor teams don't really hurt them except Eastern Mich.
St. Louis 10-12
TN State 12-12
Auburn 11-10
Colgate 10-9
EMU 7-14

Add that to an 11-9 projected B1G record (with a schedule that sees them skip MD & Rutgers) and you've got a good record with an incredible SOS.

I understand the reasoning for the preseason SOS, but some of this is just kind of dumb luck. A number of these teams weren't all that stellar last year and certainly wouldn't be providing any RPI bonus points:

2015 records
Miami- 21-10
UNI- 19-15
Kansas State- 17-12
Georgia Tech- 18-14

[bluepenquin]

Oct 17, 2016 20:49:57 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Oct 17, 2016 19:44:33 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Michigan has a great record - and look at how they scheduled OOC - great records and a lot of projected RPI bonus points for teams that aren't terribly hard to beat. They're also going to be one of maybe two teams to get an extra bonus for "tough" OOC scheduling:
Miami-OH 16-4 (*Top 50 bonus)
UNI 15-7 (*Top 50 bonus)
K-State 15-5 (*Top 25 bonus)
G Tech 15-5 (*Top 50 bonus)
American 18-6
Coastal Carolina 15-4 (*Top 50 bonus)
Pitt 14-6 (LOSS)

Even the poor teams don't really hurt them except Eastern Mich.
St. Louis 10-12
TN State 12-12
Auburn 11-10
Colgate 10-9
EMU 7-14

Add that to an 11-9 projected B1G record (with a schedule that sees them skip MD & Rutgers) and you've got a good record with an incredible SOS.

I understand the reasoning for the preseason SOS, but some of this is just kind of dumb luck. A number of these teams weren't all that stellar last year and certainly wouldn't be providing any RPI bonus points:

2015 records
Miami- 21-10
UNI- 19-15
Kansas State- 17-12
Georgia Tech- 18-14

Yes - I think there is some luck involved.  Michigan's opponents are now projected to win about 27 more matches than the preseason projection.  While their B1G opponents are projected to be just 4 games better.  Overall, Michigan's SOS only improved from #9 to #7.  But use the preseason schedule and Michigan's RPI Future right now would #19 instead of #8.  There seems to be some good fortune.

[n00b]

You have San Diego projected for 25-3 but they'll be playing 29 matches. What happened there?