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Post by ay2013 on Oct 25, 2016 2:11:47 GMT -5
Frankly, given the primary criteria, at this point I think only Washington or Stanford can keep the Big 10 from getting 3 seeded hosts this year, and both would have to essentially only lose 1 or two more matches, and both would be helped immensely if as many Pac-12 teams as possible stay in the top 25 rpi. I just don't see enough opportunities for top 25 wins for a season ending San Diego, Florida, or NC team...and San Diego is double hit by the fact they lost to Minnesota and Wisconsin. I don't see either Stanford or Washington doing well enough for that though.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 25, 2016 7:18:31 GMT -5
Here's how the at-large scene is looking: These Futures predict a relatively high RPI cut line this year - Colorado at 44 would be the "last in" straight by RPI. - Georgia Tech at 40 would have a vulnerable profile (splitting with Coastal Carolina is their only Top 50 win and this projects them only picking up one against 46 Pitt) with their record as projected and may get passed over. - Boise St. at 41 has a Top 25 win over UNLV and another Top 50 over Cleveland St. They should feel better than last year (where they got passed over at 42) but they should be nervous about some of the schools below them. They can't sleep easy if they drop anything but the CSU match remaining. UNLV dropping out of the RPI Top 25 would be disastrous both mathematically and for their profile. - Miami-OH at 42 - I'd have to see where the RPI lands with a loss in the MAC tournament. Not much more than a win over Missouri. Those below would pass them over IMO. - SMU at 43 is autobid or bust. Neither of these would change the cut-line as they'd be replaced by the AQs from their conferences. - Colorado at 44 would be safe even a couple of spots below the cut line. They have a stellar win profile (3 Top 25 - Penn St., UCLA, @wsu; plus CSU, Arizona and Illinois, (H2H may be useful) in the Top 50. Pitt at 46, Iowa St. at 47, Illinois at 48 and Cincy at 49 would be the first out. - Pitt already has wins over Michigan, GT and CSU but they've been fading fast. If they do get the wheels back on and get to 14-6 in conference they'll be ahead of GT IMO and will pray that Michigan holds up. - Iowa St. is vulnerable. No Top 25 wins but a couple Top 50 and a good SOS. I think they need to clip Texas or one of the Kansas schools but a loss to anyone else would be disastrous. - Illinois is much better than their RPI, but they lost too many matches OOC, got snakebit scheduling (Arkansas is a reliable RPI whale but 3-18 this year), and they play Rutgers, MD and NW 2x each. The top side of the resume is nice with wins @purdue and over MSU but given the RPI they need to "upset" someone down the stretch - Ohio St. at home doesn't count - and not get clipped in Iowa City or vs Maryland. They have a bunch of opportunities though. Hard to think they won't get at least one. -Cincy does not have an at-large profile Also note the MVC tournament seems to always squeeze a couple of additional bids out of that conference and UNI at 50 and Missouri St. at 51 as (of note, Mo St. has H2H over Illinois and UNI and a win over OSU; UNI has H2H over Iowa St. and a win over Kentucky). In sum, I think Illinois would bounce Boise... and Pitt/GT versus Iowa St. and the MVC would decide the last spot. I am showing the cut line to between Illinois and Cincinnati (If my math is correct and no upsets in conference tournaments). That would put Colorado, Pittsburgh, Iowa State, and Illinois as the last 4 in and Cincinnati, UNI, Missouri State, and Long Beach the last 5 out. Also - with this field and the top 16 getting seeds: Penn State would get a very easy sub-regional because both Michigan and Michigan State getting seeds. Something like American being the 2nd best team in their sub. And then UNC is looking at Coastal Carolina, East Tennessee State, and Radford. That leaves Dayton, Kentucky, Pittsburgh, Miami-OH, Cleveland State and possibly a PAC school going to the two Michigan schools. With Utah going to BYU and USC going to San Diego - that doesn't leave very good options for the 'other' PAC teams - Oregon, Washington State, Arizona. With American, Coastal Carolina, ETSU, and some other team in the PSU sub regional getting a top 3 seed for a sub-regional - that is going to leave 1 or 2 pretty darn good teams getting a 4th seed (like Oregon last year). Hawaii doesn't have to go to either Washington, Stanford, UCLA - but probably the most likely scenario. I actually have them going to Kansas State along with Missouri - but could easily go to one of those PAC seeds.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 25, 2016 11:08:35 GMT -5
Here's how the at-large scene is looking: These Futures predict a relatively high RPI cut line this year - Colorado at 44 would be the "last in" straight by RPI. - Georgia Tech at 40 would have a vulnerable profile (splitting with Coastal Carolina is their only Top 50 win and this projects them only picking up one against 46 Pitt) with their record as projected and may get passed over. - Boise St. at 41 has a Top 25 win over UNLV and another Top 50 over Cleveland St. They should feel better than last year (where they got passed over at 42) but they should be nervous about some of the schools below them. They can't sleep easy if they drop anything but the CSU match remaining. UNLV dropping out of the RPI Top 25 would be disastrous both mathematically and for their profile. - Miami-OH at 42 - I'd have to see where the RPI lands with a loss in the MAC tournament. Not much more than a win over Missouri. Those below would pass them over IMO. - SMU at 43 is autobid or bust. Neither of these would change the cut-line as they'd be replaced by the AQs from their conferences. - Colorado at 44 would be safe even a couple of spots below the cut line. They have a stellar win profile (3 Top 25 - Penn St., UCLA, @wsu; plus CSU, Arizona and Illinois, (H2H may be useful) in the Top 50. Pitt at 46, Iowa St. at 47, Illinois at 48 and Cincy at 49 would be the first out. - Pitt already has wins over Michigan, GT and CSU but they've been fading fast. If they do get the wheels back on and get to 14-6 in conference they'll be ahead of GT IMO and will pray that Michigan holds up. - Iowa St. is vulnerable. No Top 25 wins but a couple Top 50 and a good SOS. I think they need to clip Texas or one of the Kansas schools but a loss to anyone else would be disastrous. - Illinois is much better than their RPI, but they lost too many matches OOC, got snakebit scheduling (Arkansas is a reliable RPI whale but 3-18 this year), and they play Rutgers, MD and NW 2x each. The top side of the resume is nice with wins @purdue and over MSU but given the RPI they need to "upset" someone down the stretch - Ohio St. at home doesn't count - and not get clipped in Iowa City or vs Maryland. They have a bunch of opportunities though. Hard to think they won't get at least one. -Cincy does not have an at-large profile Also note the MVC tournament seems to always squeeze a couple of additional bids out of that conference and UNI at 50 and Missouri St. at 51 as (of note, Mo St. has H2H over Illinois and UNI and a win over OSU; UNI has H2H over Iowa St. and a win over Kentucky). In sum, I think Illinois would bounce Boise... and Pitt/GT versus Iowa St. and the MVC would decide the last spot. I am showing the cut line to between Illinois and Cincinnati (If my math is correct and no upsets in conference tournaments). That would put Colorado, Pittsburgh, Iowa State, and Illinois as the last 4 in and Cincinnati, UNI, Missouri State, and Long Beach the last 5 out. Also - with this field and the top 16 getting seeds: Penn State would get a very easy sub-regional because both Michigan and Michigan State getting seeds. Something like American being the 2nd best team in their sub. And then UNC is looking at Coastal Carolina, East Tennessee State, and Radford. That leaves Dayton, Kentucky, Pittsburgh, Miami-OH, Cleveland State and possibly a PAC school going to the two Michigan schools. With Utah going to BYU and USC going to San Diego - that doesn't leave very good options for the 'other' PAC teams - Oregon, Washington State, Arizona. With American, Coastal Carolina, ETSU, and some other team in the PSU sub regional getting a top 3 seed for a sub-regional - that is going to leave 1 or 2 pretty darn good teams getting a 4th seed (like Oregon last year). Hawaii doesn't have to go to either Washington, Stanford, UCLA - but probably the most likely scenario. I actually have them going to Kansas State along with Missouri - but could easily go to one of those PAC seeds. You're right. I didn't give autobids to teams with conference tournaments.. Why is it so hard to count to 32....
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Post by redbeard2008 on Oct 25, 2016 12:09:58 GMT -5
Hawaii doesn't have to go to either Washington, Stanford, UCLA - but probably the most likely scenario. I actually have them going to Kansas State along with Missouri - but could easily go to one of those PAC seeds. Recently, Hawaii has been sent to Seattle every two years, so I'm fully expecting a rematch in the subregional. We also tend to get one of the leftover midwest teams - Michigan State last year, and Michigan in the past, for instance. Will we get Ohio State (with a 26 FRPI) this year? If past patterns hold, if U-Dub does not host a regional, they'll likely be sent to the Lincoln Regional, although they'll have to be seeded #8 (assuming that Nebraska will be the top seed). That would make three straight years with NU and UW paired in the same regional. Does the Committee jigger the seeds to make their puzzle work? Ya sure, ya betcha. Right now, with Oregon and Washington State with FRPIs of 22 and 23, that cuts down the likelihood of the Committee doing any somersaults to allow either to host, with Oregon and WSU flying east.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 25, 2016 15:47:04 GMT -5
Hawaii doesn't have to go to either Washington, Stanford, UCLA - but probably the most likely scenario. I actually have them going to Kansas State along with Missouri - but could easily go to one of those PAC seeds. Recently, Hawaii has been sent to Seattle every two years, so I'm fully expecting a rematch in the subregional. We also tend to get one of the leftover midwest teams - Michigan State last year, and Michigan in the past, for instance. Will we get Ohio State (with a 26 FRPI) this year? If past patterns hold, if U-Dub does not host a regional, they'll likely be sent to the Lincoln Regional, although they'll have to be seeded #8 (assuming that Nebraska will be the top seed). That would make three straight years with NU and UW paired in the same regional. Does the Committee jigger the seeds to make their puzzle work? Ya sure, ya betcha.
Right now, with Oregon and Washington State with FRPIs of 22 and 23, that cuts down the likelihood of the Committee doing any somersaults to allow either to host, with Oregon and WSU flying east. I don't believe this - but I cannot prove it.
No doubt the PAC gets very unfavorable sub-regionals relative to teams from conferences in the East - but this is a direct result of geography restrictions and 400 mile drive-in. Every PAC seed will have some fly-ins - sometimes they will have all fly-ins. Some B1G teams will not have any fly-ins and enough small conference AQs close by to reduce the chances of getting that really tough fly-in. The geography math works against the PAC and this can be a big deal.
But I just don't see the evidence of committee purposely messing with seed orders to clear paths for favored teams? Which teams are they favoring - because a lot of fans of the B1G think they try and limit the # of possible B1G teams that can make the FF. It seems like everyone complains when the seeds create an unfavorable matchup and then scream conspiracy. I don't see the conspiracy.
I think a 4th PAC seed is very much in play (not if their RPI is in the 20's). There is still considerable RPI upside for Oregon and Washington State.
On a side note - it will be interesting to see how the committee views Hawaii? The RPI is going to suggest a #3 seed in the sub-regional - especially when they have to account for handful of #3/4 seeds getting #2/3 seeds. This opens them up to more places in the country (Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin a Kansas school if both are a seed). If the committee views them as a clear #2 seed - then they are more likely to end up on the West Coast.
Teams that could end up in Washington as 2/3 seeds: Western Kentucky (if neither Kentucky or Purdue get a seed), Purdue/Michigan State/Ohio State/Illinois (this list gets smaller if Kentucky is a seed or there are more B1G seeds), Florida State/Georgia Tech (whichever one doesn't end up with Florida), Baylor/TCU, Colorado State, and Hawaii.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 25, 2016 20:42:51 GMT -5
Other +1/-1 - doesn't show impact of conference tournament.
18. Western Kentucky (13 Wins-19) (14 Wins-14) (12 Wins-24) 21. Creighton (17 Wins-23) (18 Wins-18) (16 Wins-25) 25. UNLV (14 Wins-24) (15 Wins-18) (13 Wins-25) 27. Dayton (13 Wins-30) (14 Wins-26) (12 Wins-37) 31. Wichita State (15 Wins-30) (16 Wins-25) (14 Wins-36) 34. Marquette (14 Wins-29) (15 Wins-24) (13 Wins-35) 36. Coastal Carolina (15 Wins-36) (-) (14 Wins-39) 37. Hawaii (14 Wins-37) (15 Wins-29) (13 Wins-46) 39. Colorado State (15 Wins-38) (16 Wins-35) (14 Wins-49) 41. Boise State (13 Wins-45) (14 Wins-38) (12 Wins-50) 42. Miami-OH (15 Wins-43) (16 Wins-36) (14 Wins-49) 43. SMU (16 Wins-39) (17 Wins-36) (15 Wins-48) 45. Cleveland State (14 Wins-41) (15 Wins-36) (13 Wins-49) 49. Cincinnati (15 Wins-49) (16 Wins-41) (14 Wins-51) 50. Northern Iowa (13 Wins-50) (14 Wins-45) (12 Wins-52) 52. Missouri State (14 Wins-52) (15 Wins-51) (13 Wins-62) 53. Long Beach State (14 Wins-57) (15 Wins-51) (13 Wins-66) 55. Temple (13 Wins-54) (14 Wins-51) (12 Wins-63) 56. Cal Poly (11 Wins-60) (12 Wins-51) (10 Wins-68) 57. UCF (13 Wins-55) (14 Wins-51) (12 Wins-63) 58. Southern Illinois (13 Wins-54) (14 Wins-51) (12 Wins-63)
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 25, 2016 21:16:15 GMT -5
Is RPI just jumping off a cliff at 25? Could this be the one year where the Top 25 distinction isn't totally arbitrary? It looks like there's a similar cliff somewhere around 49. Odd.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 25, 2016 22:01:57 GMT -5
The cliffs are between:
#3/4: Pretty sizeable difference between Minny and the top 3. #4/5: This is one humongous cliff. #8/9: Washington/North Carolina - this gets pretty sizeable when coupled with #6 and 7 (Florida and San Diego). #23/24: Washington State/Utah. #25/26: Utah/Ohio State - this is a pretty significant cliff. #34/38: Starts adding up between Marquette and Notre Dame. #49/51: Cincinnati/UNI/LMU - there is a decent cliff between Cincy and UNI and much more significant cliff between UNI and LMU. Combined this is pretty big.
No other cliffs the rest of the way.
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Post by TCMullet on Oct 25, 2016 23:00:32 GMT -5
My list of Top 50+ did not change at all, that is, no new teams crept into the top 50 spots. So my current list of 54 remains the same. But I AM tempted to drop Hofstra who was in for only 2 weeks and has now dropped to 59.
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Post by Hawk Attack on Oct 29, 2016 23:08:41 GMT -5
In order to reach their potential:
Nebraska has to lose 2 more They've got Penn St. x2 & Minnesota, definitely possible but not probable
Wisconsin has to lose 3 more They've got Minnesota and a bunch of teams who have a shot if Wisconsin really has an off night, I can't see lightning striking twice among that group
Minnesota has to lose 2 more They've got Nebraska & Wisconsin plus the Michigans & Illinois, probably the most likely to be fulfilled
With Texas, Michigan, San Diego and Washington all losing this week how will the NCAA find a way to deny the top 3 B1G their sites, and who to?
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Post by spikerthemovie on Oct 29, 2016 23:16:01 GMT -5
In order to reach their potential: Nebraska has to lose 2 more They've got Penn St. x2 & Minnesota, definitely possible but not probable Wisconsin has to lose 3 more They've got Minnesota and a bunch of teams who have a shot if Wisconsin really has an off night, I can't see lightning striking twice among that group Minnesota has to lose 2 more They've got Nebraska & Wisconsin plus the Michigans & Illinois, probably the most likely to be fulfilled With Texas, Michigan, San Diego and Washington all losing this week how will the NCAA find a way to deny the top 3 B1G their sites, and who to? Worth noting Illinois is the only one of those on the road, and MN hasn't lost at home in more than two years.
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 29, 2016 23:23:46 GMT -5
Yeah. Minnie has a heavy home schedule from here on. It's possible that they have seen all the losses they are likely to get so far this year.
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Post by Hawk Attack on Oct 29, 2016 23:27:26 GMT -5
Yeah. Minnie has a heavy home schedule from here on. It's possible that they have seen all the losses they are likely to get so far this year. I'd like to see them win out, especially since that includes handing Nebraska one more loss.
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Post by rainbowbadger on Oct 30, 2016 1:23:41 GMT -5
I want to see Minnesota win out until the last night of the season. The Wisconsin can walk in and beat them.
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Post by rainbowbadger on Oct 30, 2016 1:25:06 GMT -5
I'm sure this will be accounted for on Monday, but Pablo had WI losing to PSU. And, um, we won. What of our projected RPI now?
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