RPI Futures Week 10 (10/30/16)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI based on the win probabilities for the remaining matches on the schedule per Pablo ratings.  This doesn't include any conference tournament matches - since the matchups have not been scheduled.

RPI Futures Rank (Last Week Rank) Team (overall projected wins - losses, projected conference wins - losses) - RPI SOS

1. (1) Nebraska (27-2, 18-2) - 9

2. (3) Wisconsin (24-5, 16-4) - 4

3. (2) Texas (22-4, 14-2) - 3

4. (4) Minnesota (23-6, 15-5) - 2

5. (6) Florida (26-3, 16-2) - 44

6. (10) Stanford (20-8, 14-6) - 7

7. (8) Washington (25-5, 15-5) - 29

8. (13) UCLA (23-7, 14-6) - 21

9. (11) BYU (26-4, 15-3) - 41

10. (15) Michigan State (24-8, 13-7) - 14

11. (7) San Diego (25-4, 16-2) - 39

12. (16) Kansas (24-4, 13-3) - 67

13. (5) Michigan (21-11, 10-10) - 6

14. (9) North Carolina (25-5, 17-3) - 60

15. (14) Kansas State (21-8, 10-6) - 12

16. (17) Missouri (24-6, 15-3) - 26

17. (19) Kentucky (23-6, 16-2) - 31

18. (18) Western Kentucky (27-2, 14-0) - 87

19. (12) Penn State (22-9, 14-6) - 24

20. (21) Creighton (24-6, 18-0) - 35

21. (20) Purdue (18-13, 8-12) - 5

22. (25) UNLV (25-5, 14-4) - 47

23. (24) Utah (20-11, 11-9) - 13

24. (30) Florida State (24-5, 17-3) - 83

25. (22) Oregon (19-10, 12-8) - 15

26. (23) Washington State (22-10, 12-8) - 33

27. (27) Dayton (28-2, 14-0) - 144

28. (34) Marquette (24-6, 14-4) - 71

29. (26) Ohio State (20-12, 10-10) - 11

30. (32) Texas A&M (20-9, 14-4) - 25

31. (29) Baylor (22-10, 10-6) - 27

32. (37) Hawaii (21-6, 14-2) - 65

33. (28) USC (19-12, 11-9) - 16

34. (35) Arizona (18-14, 10-10) - 8

35. (31) Wichita State (21-8, 14-4) - 49

36. (36) Coastal Carolina (24-4, 15-1) - 124

37. (41) Boise State (23-8, 14-4) - 66

38. (33) TCU (12-14, 5-11) - 1

39. (43) SMU (23-9, 16-4) - 57

40. (42) Miami-OH (24-4, 16-0) - 132

41. (45) Cleveland State (23-5, 14-2) - 111

42. (46) Pittsburgh (23-9, 14-6) - 72

43. (47) Iowa State (16-12, 8-8) - 10

44. (40) Georgia Tech (24-8, 15-5) - 84

45. (49) Cincinnati (21-10, 16-4) - 38

46. (39) Colorado State (20-9, 14-4) - 69

47. (50) Northern Iowa (22-9, 13-5) - 90

48. (38) Notre Dame (24-8, 15-5) - 108

49. (48) Illinois (18-13, 11-9) - 32

50. (59) Hofstra (21-8, 11-5) - 77

51. (52) Missouri State (24-8, 15-3) - 109

52. (55) Temple (21-9, 14-6) - 74

53. (61) Iowa (20-12, 10-10) - 53

54. (44) Colorado (16-14, 8-12) - 28

55. (51) Loyola Marymount (19-11, 10-8) - 64

56. (62) Villanova (19-12, 10-8) - 52

57. (67) Indiana (17-16, 6-14) - 22

58. (54) Florida Gulf Coast (25-5, 11-3) - 187

59. (53) Long Beach State (21-10, 14-2) - 112

60. (57) UCF (22-11, 12-8) - 95

61. (75) Wyoming (19-12, 12-6) - 61

62. (64) Pacific (17-13, 11-7) - 40

63. (58) Southern Illinois (21-11, 12-6) - 88

64. (56) Cal Poly (17-10, 10-6) - 81

65. (69) Arkansas State (22-8, 14-2) - 150

66. (72) Northeastern (22-8, 12-4) - 137

67. (65) Duke (20-10, 14-6) - 116

68. (60) Texas-San Antonio (19-7, 10-4) - 142

69. (66) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (20-8, 15-1) - 138

70. (63) Alabama (18-13, 7-11) - 56

71. (70) Lipscomb (19-8, 11-3) - 134

72. (73) Rice (18-11, 10-4) - 86

73. (84) James Madison (17-12, 9-7) - 54

74. (68) Northern Illinois (22-6, 14-2) - 184

75. (79) Tulsa (19-13, 8-12) - 62

76. (77) Princeton (19-4, 13-1) - 236

77. (86) Tennessee (18-13, 8-10) - 79

78. (76) San Diego State (17-15, 9-9) - 45

79. (71) College of Charleston (18-10, 11-5) - 107

80. (80) Texas State (21-10, 14-2) - 122

81. (74) Towson (22-9, 9-7) - 165

82. (78) Gonzaga (16-12, 9-9) - 78

83. (90) Xavier (17-14, 11-7) - 70

84. (89) Oklahoma (15-14, 6-10) - 58

85. (95) Wisconsin-Green Bay (19-9, 11-5) - 149

86. (87) UConn (18-13, 9-11) - 92

87. (85) New Mexico State (23-7, 12-2) - 198

88. (88) NC State (18-14, 11-9) - 91

89. (82) USF (20-12, 11-9) - 121

90. (101) UCSB (17-12, 8-8) - 105

91. (83) Tulane (18-14, 10-10) - 76

92. (94) South Dakota (25-5, 14-2) - 266

93. (93) DePaul (15-15, 9-9) - 48

94. (102) Illinois State (18-12, 11-7) - 133

95. (96) Ole Miss (17-14, 6-12) - 82

96. (81) Nevada (18-12, 9-9) - 128

97. (92) Saint Louis (15-14, 10-4) - 59

98. (98) South Carolina (18-12, 6-12) - 119

99. (97) Northern Arizona (23-6, 13-3) - 247

100. (105) American (25-7, 15-1) - 256

101. (110) Oakland (19-11, 11-5) - 156

102. (100) Marshall (21-8, 10-4) - 209

103. (91) UNCW (17-11, 7-9) - 120

104. (125) Miami-FL (15-17, 9-11) - 46

105. (99) Auburn (15-16, 9-9) - 55

106. (108) Albany (16-8, 10-2) - 174

107. (111) Yale (18-6, 11-3) - 250

108. (106) Kennesaw State (18-10, 12-2) - 159

109. (107) Southern Miss (21-8, 10-4) - 224

110. (130) Pepperdine (12-18, 6-12) - 36

111. (120) Toledo (17-11, 10-6) - 131

112. (109) Bowling Green (20-9, 10-6) - 197

113. (103) Santa Clara (16-14, 7-11) - 104

114. (118) Radford (23-5, 14-2) - 279

115. (123) SIUE (20-7, 13-3) - 232

116. (124) Maryland (13-19, 5-15) - 37

117. (104) East Tennessee State (20-8, 12-4) - 225

118. (121) West Virginia (13-17, 4-12) - 50

119. (146) Delaware (13-16, 7-9) - 43

120. (129) Portland (15-15, 8-10) - 101

121. (131) Oregon State (11-20, 4-16) - 18

122. (116) Butler (19-15, 8-10) - 129

123. (114) Fresno State (15-14, 6-12) - 98

124. (112) Northern Kentucky (16-11, 10-6) - 139

125. (122) Denver (21-8, 13-3) - 249

126. (126) UNF (19-12, 9-5) - 164

127. (113) UT Rio Grande Valley (20-11, 8-6) - 180

128. (132) Sacramento State (18-12, 12-4) - 152

129. (143) New Mexico (16-16, 6-12) - 96

130. (127) Ohio (15-14, 11-5) - 113

131. (117) Texas Tech (11-20, 1-15) - 30

132. (119) Utah State (14-16, 8-10) - 80

133. (138) Samford (19-12, 10-6) - 179

134. (134) Northern Colorado (18-10, 12-4) - 182

135. (144) Arizona State (11-21, 4-16) - 19

136. (137) Rhode Island (17-9, 12-2) - 193

137. (136) Austin Peay (24-9, 13-3) - 257

138. (135) Idaho State (15-14, 10-6) - 117

139. (115) High Point (20-9, 11-5) - 229

140. (142) North Dakota (21-11, 12-4) - 221

141. (128) Portland State (17-12, 9-7) - 173

142. (133) LSU (9-20, 4-14) - 17

143. (153) Cal (11-19, 5-15) - 42

144. (150) Fairfield (26-6, 18-0) - 302

145. (141) Murray State (19-9, 14-2) - 237

146. (140) Army (19-11, 11-5) - 214

147. (164) UNC Greensboro (17-12, 11-5) - 185

148. (154) UC Davis (14-15, 7-9) - 118

149. (156) UC Irvine (13-18, 7-9) - 85

150. (148) Mississippi State (15-17, 7-11) - 110

[southie]

Good stuff.

[Hawk Attack]

Iowa making some little gains within the top 64. Have to do business against Rutgers and find some way to steal 2 from PSU, Nebraska x2, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan St. They play PSU after PSU goes through Nebraska the night before at Rec Hall. Trap match?

[huskerjen]

Oct 31, 2016 19:38:03 GMT -5 Hawk Attack said:

Iowa making some little gains within the top 64. Have to do business against Rutgers and find some way to steal 2 from PSU, Nebraska x2, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan St. They play PSU after PSU goes through Nebraska the night before at Rec Hall. Trap match?

They match up well with both PSU and MSU.

[trojansc]

Oct 31, 2016 19:38:03 GMT -5 Hawk Attack said:

Iowa making some little gains within the top 64. Have to do business against Rutgers and find some way to steal 2 from PSU, Nebraska x2, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan St. They play PSU after PSU goes through Nebraska the night before at Rec Hall. Trap match?

If a last spot comes down to IA/Illinois and they are extremely close in RPI, its going to the Hawkeyes

[n00b]

FYI, by that list...

LAST 4 IN:
45. Cincinnati
46. Colorado State
47. Northern Iowa
48. Notre Dame

FIRST 4 OUT:
49. Illinois
51. Missouri State
52. Temple
53. Iowa


I'm finding the Mountain West and American regular season championship races particularly interesting this year because both are close and involve multiple bubble teams. Big matches this weekend with UNLV at Colorado State on Thursday and SMU at Cincinnati on Friday.

[n00b]

Oct 31, 2016 19:44:07 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oct 31, 2016 19:38:03 GMT -5 Hawk Attack said:

Iowa making some little gains within the top 64. Have to do business against Rutgers and find some way to steal 2 from PSU, Nebraska x2, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan St. They play PSU after PSU goes through Nebraska the night before at Rec Hall. Trap match?

If a last spot comes down to IA/Illinois and they are extremely close in RPI, its going to the Hawkeyes

How do you think the committee will consider the Hawkeyes? Historically, teams with RPIs on the bad side of the bubble can be saved by quality wins. The Hawkeyes certainly have those over Purdue and Illinois. However their non-conference schedule was very easy. They played only one tournament-quality opponent and got swept by Iowa State. Best wins were Arizona State/DePaul/Northern Illinois and had a loss to Butler in there. That'll be an interesting bubble case.

20 wins is what's projected here and that would require a win over a top 25 Pablo team. That leaves them squarely on the bubble. 21 wins I think definitely gets them in as it would require two top 25 wins.

[ay2013]

Oct 31, 2016 18:46:50 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI based on the win probabilities for the remaining matches on the schedule per Pablo ratings.  This doesn't include any conference tournament matches - since the matchups have not been scheduled.

RPI Futures Rank (Last Week Rank) Team (overall projected wins - losses, projected conference wins - losses) - RPI SOS

1. (1) Nebraska (27-2, 18-2) - 9

2. (3) Wisconsin (24-5, 16-4) - 4

3. (2) Texas (22-4, 14-2) - 3

4. (4) Minnesota (23-6, 15-5) - 2

5. (6) Florida (26-3, 16-2) - 44

6. (10) Stanford (20-8, 14-6) - 7

7. (8) Washington (25-5, 15-5) - 29

8. (13) UCLA (23-7, 14-6) - 21

9. (11) BYU (26-4, 15-3) - 41

10. (15) Michigan State (24-8, 13-7) - 14

11. (7) San Diego (25-4, 16-2) - 39

12. (16) Kansas (24-4, 13-3) - 67

13. (5) Michigan (21-11, 10-10) - 6

14. (9) North Carolina (25-5, 17-3) - 60

15. (14) Kansas State (21-8, 10-6) - 12

16. (17) Missouri (24-6, 15-3) - 26

I could live with a straight seeding based on this

1- Nebraska
8- UCLA
9- BYU
16- Missouri

2- Wisconsin
7- Washington
10- MSU
15- Kansas State

3- Texas
6- Stanford
11- San Diego
14- North Carolina

4- Minnesota
5- Florida
12- Kansas
13- Michigan

I feel bad for the seed that gets those damn Nittany Lions in a sub regional

[Hawk Attack]

Oct 31, 2016 20:17:35 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Oct 31, 2016 18:46:50 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI based on the win probabilities for the remaining matches on the schedule per Pablo ratings.  This doesn't include any conference tournament matches - since the matchups have not been scheduled.

RPI Futures Rank (Last Week Rank) Team (overall projected wins - losses, projected conference wins - losses) - RPI SOS

1. (1) Nebraska (27-2, 18-2) - 9

2. (3) Wisconsin (24-5, 16-4) - 4

3. (2) Texas (22-4, 14-2) - 3

4. (4) Minnesota (23-6, 15-5) - 2

5. (6) Florida (26-3, 16-2) - 44

6. (10) Stanford (20-8, 14-6) - 7

7. (8) Washington (25-5, 15-5) - 29

8. (13) UCLA (23-7, 14-6) - 21

9. (11) BYU (26-4, 15-3) - 41

10. (15) Michigan State (24-8, 13-7) - 14

11. (7) San Diego (25-4, 16-2) - 39

12. (16) Kansas (24-4, 13-3) - 67

13. (5) Michigan (21-11, 10-10) - 6

14. (9) North Carolina (25-5, 17-3) - 60

15. (14) Kansas State (21-8, 10-6) - 12

16. (17) Missouri (24-6, 15-3) - 26

I could live with a straight seeding based on this

1- Nebraska
8- UCLA
9- BYU
16- Missouri

2- Wisconsin
7- Washington
10- MSU
15- Kansas State

3- Texas
6- Stanford
11- San Diego
14- North Carolina

4- Minnesota
5- Florida
12- Kansas
13- Michigan

I feel bad for the seed that gets those damn Nittany Lions in a sub regional

Oh no no no you gotta swap San Diego & Michigan so the Cardinal get to face their best friends from the Midwest .

[bluepenquin]

+1/-1 Conference Win.

1. Nebraska (18 Wins-1) (19 Wins-1) (17 Wins-1)
2. Wisconsin (16 Wins-2) (17 Wins-2) (15 Wins-3)
4. Minnesota (15 Wins-4) (16 Wins-3) (14 Wins-4)
10. Michigan State (13 Wins-6) (14 Wins-5) (12 Wins-12)
13. Michigan (10 Wins-14) (11 Wins-12) (9 Wins-19)
19. Penn State (14 Wins-20) (15 Wins-15) (13 Wins-23)
21. Purdue (8 Wins-21) (9 Wins-17) (7 Wins-25)
29. Ohio State (10 Wins-31) (11 Wins-24) (9 Wins-35)
49. Illinois (11 Wins-49) (12 Wins-45) (9 Wins-63)
53. Iowa (10 Wins-54) (11 Wins-50) (9 Wins-63)
57. Indiana (6 Wiins-60) (7 Wins-55) (5 Wins-74)


6. Stanford (14 Wins-6) (15 Wins-5) (13 Wins-12)
7. Washington (15 Wins-6) (16 Wins-5) (14 Wins-11)
8. UCLA (14 Wins-11) (15 Wins-6) (13 Wins-16)
23. Utah (11 Wins-23) (12 Wins-19) (10 Wins-29)
25. Oregon (12 Wins-25) (13 Wins-20) (11 Wins-31)
26. Washington State (12 Wins-26) (13 Wins-23) (11 Wins-31)
33. USC (11 Wins-34) (12 Wins-30) (10 Wins-43)
34. Arizona (10 Wins-34) (11 Wins-29) (9 Wins-43)
54. Colorado (8 Wins-53) (9 Wins-48) (7 Wins-58)



3. Texas (14 Wins-3) (15 Wins-2) (13 Wins-4)
12. Kansas (13 Wins-13) (14 Wins-7) (12 Wins-18)
15. Kansas State (10 Wins-14) (11 Wins-8) (9 Wins-18)
31. Baylor (10 Wins-29) (11 Wins-24) (9 Wins-33)
38. TCU (5 Wins-43) (6 Wins-34) (4 Wins-47)
43. Iowa State (8 Wins-43) (9 Wins-32) (7 Wins-46)



9. BYU (15 Wins-9) (16 Wins-5) (14 Wins-13)
11. San Diego (16 Wins-11) (17 Wins-6) (14 Wins-20)
55. Loyola Marymount (10 Wins-56) (11 Wins-53) (9 Wins-66)
62. Pacific (11 Wins-65) (12 Wins-56) (10 Wins-77)




14. North Carolina (17 Wins-16) (18 Wins-12) (16 Wins-20)
24. Florida State (17 Wins-26) (18 Wins-22) (16 Wins-32)
42. Pittsburgh (14 Wins-43) (15 Wins-37) (13 Wins-47)
44. Georgia Tech (15 Wins-44) (16 Wins-37) (14 Wins-47)
48. Notre Dame (15 Wins-49) (16 Wins-46) (14 Wins-54)




5. Florida (16 Wins-5) (17 Wins-5) (15 Wins-12)
16. Missouri (15 Wins-14) (16 Wins-7) (14 Wins-18)
17. Kentucky (16 Wins-15) (17 Wins-7) (15 Wins-19)
30. Texas A&M (14 Wins-31) (15 Wins-25) (13 Wins-37)




18. Western Kentucky (14 Wins-15) (-) (13 Wins-20)
20. Creighton (18 Wins-19) (-) (17 Wins-23)
22. UNLV (14 Wins-21) (15 Wins-15) (13 Wins-23)
27. Dayton (14 Wins-24) (-) (13 Wins-31)
28. Marquette (14 Wins-28) (15 Wins-23) (13 Wins-32)
32. Hawaii (14 Wins-32) (15 Wins-27) (13 Wins-42)
35. Wichita State (14 Wins-36) (15 Wins-32) (13 Wins-44)
36. Coastal Carolina (15 Wins-34) (-) (14 Wins-43)
37. Boise State (14 Wins-39) (15 Wins-32) (13 Wins-45)
39. SMU (16 Wins-43) (17 Wins-35) (15 Wins-47)
40. Miami-OH (16 Wins-37) (-) (15 Wins-44)
41. Cleveland State (14 Wins-41) (15 Wins-32) (13 Wins-47)
45. Cincinnati (16 Wins-44) (17 Wins-36) (15 Wins-47)
46. Colorado State (14 Wins-47) (15 Wins-44) (13 Wins-52)
47. Northern Iowa (13 Wins-47) (14 Wins-44) (12 Wins-52)
50. Hofstra (11 Wins-50) (12 Wins-45) (10 Wins-54)
51. Missouri State (15 Wins-51) (16 Wins-44) (14 Wins-53)
52. Temple (14 Wins-50) (15 Wins-46) (13 Wins-54)
56. Villanova (10 Wins-59) (11 Wins-54) (9 Wins-72)
58. Florida Gulf Coast (11 Wins-58) (12 Wins-53) (10 Wins-71)
59. Long Beach State (14 Wins-59) (15 Wins-53) (13 Wins-69)

[bluepenquin]

Oct 31, 2016 19:55:43 GMT -5 n00b said:

FYI, by that list...

LAST 4 IN:
45. Cincinnati
46. Colorado State
47. Northern Iowa
48. Notre Dame

FIRST 4 OUT:
49. Illinois
51. Missouri State
52. Temple
53. Iowa


I'm finding the Mountain West and American regular season championship races particularly interesting this year because both are close and involve multiple bubble teams. Big matches this weekend with UNLV at Colorado State on Thursday and SMU at Cincinnati on Friday.

Under this - TCU is below .500, so Illinois would be in.

[cyclonepower]

Thanks as always bluepenguin, great stuff!

[bluepenquin]

Here is a sub-regional matchup going strictly with this RPI and Pablo favorite to win regular season conference. There are many, many flying alternatives here. Penn State could literally go anywhere outside of a B1G host + Texas, North Carolina, and probably Missouri. Hawaii even more possibilities - as they could be considered a #3 in a sub-regional.

BYU (Utah, Boise State, Albany *)
Florida (Oregon *, Georgia Tech, College of Charleston)
Kansas (Creighton, Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State *)
Kansas State (Penn State *, Colorado State *, South Dakota)
Michigan (Kentucky, Cincinnati, Miami-OH)
Michigan State (Dayton, Pittsburgh, Cleveland State)
Minnesota (Western Kentucky *, Marquette, Princeton *)
Missouri (Purdue, Wichita State, Murray State)
Nebraska (Arizona *, Iowa State, Fairfield *)
North Carolina (Coastal Carolina, Radford, Kennesaw State)
San Diego (USC, Baylor *, Northern Arizona *)
Stanford (Ohio State *, New Mexico State *, Howard *)
Texas (Texas A&M, SMU, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
UCLA (Hawaii *, UNLV, Sacred Heart *)
Washington (Florida State *, Illinois *, American *)
Wisconsin (Washington State *, Notre Dame, Alabama State *)

[sideoutnow]

once again, hawaii will prove their worth in the tourney. as usual, there are a bunch of higher rated teams that will make a quicker exit than hawaii. nothing new.

[ay2013]

In terms of this future, I like PSU's chances to get a seed. Mostly because they have a number of wins against teams likely to stay in the top 25 (4 of them), and 3 more chances, add in an additional win and another chance if OSU stays in the top 25.

That's going to mean a lot against a Kansas State team that will likely have just 1 win, a Missouri team that currently only has 1 win and likely just 2 more chances, and a Western Kentucky team that will have 0 wins.

I think those final two seeds could very easily, and rightfully, go to PSU and Kentucky.