RPI Futures Week 11 (11/6/16)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI based on the win probabilities for all remaining games using Pablo ratings. This doesn't include any future conference tournament matches.

RPI Projected rank (LW Rank) school (Overall wins - losses, conference wins - losses) - SOS Rank

1. (1) Nebraska (27-2, 18-2) - 10

2. (2) Wisconsin (24-5, 16-4) - 4

3. (3) Texas (22-4, 14-2) - 2

4. (4) Minnesota (23-6, 15-5) - 3

5. (5) Florida (26-3, 16-2) - 44

6. (6) Stanford (20-8, 14-6) - 7

7. (9) BYU (26-4, 15-3) - 40

8. (10) Michigan State (24-8, 13-7) - 14

9. (12) Kansas (25-3, 14-2) - 74

10. (13) Michigan (22-10, 11-9) - 6

11. (11) San Diego (25-4, 16-2) - 41

12. (16) Missouri (25-5, 16-2) - 24

13. (14) North Carolina (26-4, 18-2) - 58

14. (8) UCLA (23-7, 14-6) - 20

15. (7) Washington (24-6, 14-6) - 30

16. (18) Western Kentucky (27-2, 14-0) - 76

17. (20) Creighton (24-6, 18-0) - 36

18. (17) Kentucky (22-7, 15-3) - 28

19. (25) Oregon (20-9, 13-7) - 15

20. (19) Penn State (22-9, 14-6) - 25

21. (15) Kansas State (20-9, 9-7) - 11

22. (21) Purdue (18-13, 8-12) - 5

23. (23) Utah (20-11, 11-9) - 13

24. (22) UNLV (24-6, 13-5) - 42

25. (34) Arizona (19-13, 11-9) - 9

26. (30) Texas A&M (21-8, 15-3) - 19

27. (27) Dayton (29-1, 14-0) - 150

28. (28) Marquette (24-6, 14-4) - 78

29. (38) TCU (13-13, 6-10) - 1

30. (24) Florida State (23-6, 16-4) - 75

31. (31) Baylor (22-10, 10-6) - 32

32. (32) Hawaii (21-6, 14-2) - 67

33. (33) USC (19-12, 11-9) - 16

34. (42) Pittsburgh (24-8, 15-5) - 68

35. (37) Boise State (24-7, 15-3) - 62

36. (43) Iowa State (16-12, 8-8) - 8

37. (35) Wichita State (21-8, 14-4) - 54

38. (29) Ohio State (19-13, 9-11) - 12

39. (41) Cleveland State (24-4, 15-1) - 109

40. (36) Coastal Carolina (24-4, 15-1) - 131

41. (39) SMU (23-9, 16-4) - 46

42. (26) Washington State (20-12, 10-10) - 35

43. (46) Colorado State (21-8, 15-3) - 63

44. (40) Miami-OH (23-5, 15-1) - 122

45. (45) Cincinnati (20-11, 15-5) - 37

46. (47) Northern Iowa (22-9, 13-5) - 87

47. (44) Georgia Tech (23-9, 14-6) - 86

48. (52) Temple (22-8, 15-5) - 81

49. (51) Missouri State (24-8, 15-3) - 114

50. (48) Notre Dame (24-8, 15-5) - 103

51. (55) Loyola Marymount (20-10, 11-7) - 65

52. (57) Indiana (18-15, 7-13) - 22

53. (49) Illinois (17-14, 10-10) - 29

54. (53) Iowa (20-12, 10-10) - 52

55. (50) Hofstra (20-9, 10-6) - 73

56. (63) Southern Illinois (22-10, 13-5) - 88

57. (61) Wyoming (20-11, 13-5) - 66

58. (54) Colorado (16-14, 8-12) - 31

59. (60) UCF (23-10, 13-7) - 101

60. (64) Cal Poly (18-9, 11-5) - 79

61. (65) Arkansas State (23-7, 15-1) - 140

62. (67) Duke (21-9, 15-5) - 120

63. (56) Villanova (19-12, 10-8) - 50

64. (75) Tulsa (20-12, 9-11) - 64

65. (68) Texas-San Antonio (19-7, 10-4) - 136

66. (58) Florida Gulf Coast (25-5, 11-3) - 185

67. (73) James Madison (18-11, 10-6) - 60

68. (71) Lipscomb (20-7, 12-2) - 133

69. (59) Long Beach State (21-10, 14-2) - 115

70. (70) Alabama (18-13, 7-11) - 57

71. (74) Northern Illinois (22-6, 14-2) - 182

72. (69) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (21-7, 16-0) - 147

73. (88) NC State (20-12, 13-7) - 89

74. (62) Pacific (17-13, 11-7) - 39

75. (81) Towson (23-8, 10-6) - 164

76. (72) Rice (18-11, 10-4) - 77

77. (87) New Mexico State (23-7, 13-1) - 186

78. (90) UCSB (18-11, 9-7) - 106

79. (76) Princeton (19-4, 13-1) - 229

80. (66) Northeastern (21-9, 11-5) - 141

81. (77) Tennessee (18-13, 8-10) - 80

82. (96) Nevada (19-11, 10-8) - 126

83. (82) Gonzaga (16-12, 9-9) - 83

84. (84) Oklahoma (15-14, 6-10) - 51

85. (83) Xavier (17-14, 11-7) - 72

86. (98) South Carolina (19-11, 7-11) - 123

87. (79) College of Charleston (17-11, 10-6) - 111

88. (80) Texas State (20-11, 13-3) - 121

89. (86) UConn (18-13, 9-11) - 92

90. (97) Saint Louis (16-13, 11-3) - 59

91. (85) Wisconsin-Green Bay (19-9, 11-5) - 158

92. (78) San Diego State (16-16, 8-10) - 43

93. (95) Ole Miss (17-14, 6-12) - 82

94. (91) Tulane (18-14, 10-10) - 84

95. (107) Yale (19-5, 12-2) - 258

96. (102) Marshall (22-7, 11-3) - 209

97. (93) DePaul (15-15, 9-9) - 49

98. (105) Auburn (15-16, 9-9) - 56

99. (99) Northern Arizona (23-6, 13-3) - 238

100. (94) Illinois State (18-12, 11-7) - 132

101. (119) Delaware (14-15, 8-8) - 47

102. (92) South Dakota (23-7, 12-4) - 252

103. (89) USF (19-13, 10-10) - 124

104. (103) UNCW (16-12, 6-10) - 112

105. (109) Southern Miss (22-7, 11-3) - 228

106. (100) American (25-7, 15-1) - 257

107. (101) Oakland (19-11, 11-5) - 156

108. (124) Northern Kentucky (17-10, 11-5) - 137

109. (121) Oregon State (12-19, 5-15) - 23

110. (128) Sacramento State (18-12, 12-4) - 146

111. (115) SIUE (20-7, 13-3) - 232

112. (104) Miami-FL (14-18, 8-12) - 45

113. (117) East Tennessee State (20-8, 12-4) - 226

114. (112) Bowling Green (20-9, 10-6) - 191

115. (108) Kennesaw State (18-10, 12-2) - 155

116. (113) Santa Clara (16-14, 7-11) - 108

117. (114) Radford (23-5, 14-2) - 280

118. (106) Albany (15-9, 9-3) - 170

119. (130) Ohio (15-14, 11-5) - 104

120. (120) Portland (15-15, 8-10) - 102

121. (110) Pepperdine (12-18, 6-12) - 33

122. (122) Butler (19-15, 8-10) - 130

123. (123) Fresno State (15-14, 6-12) - 97

124. (118) West Virginia (13-17, 4-12) - 53

125. (125) Denver (21-8, 13-3) - 254

126. (138) Idaho State (16-13, 11-5) - 117

127. (111) Toledo (16-12, 9-7) - 134

128. (116) Maryland (13-19, 5-15) - 38

129. (134) Northern Colorado (18-10, 12-4) - 190

130. (140) North Dakota (22-10, 13-3) - 223

131. (129) New Mexico (16-16, 6-12) - 95

132. (139) High Point (20-9, 11-5) - 222

133. (145) Murray State (20-8, 15-1) - 236

134. (131) Texas Tech (11-20, 1-15) - 27

135. (132) Utah State (14-16, 8-10) - 85

136. (136) Rhode Island (17-9, 12-2) - 201

137. (137) Austin Peay (23-10, 12-4) - 249

138. (144) Fairfield (26-6, 18-0) - 302

139. (135) Arizona State (10-22, 3-17) - 21

140. (126) UNF (18-13, 8-6) - 172

141. (127) UT Rio Grande Valley (18-13, 7-7) - 176

142. (146) Army (20-10, 12-4) - 218

143. (157) Utah Valley (14-14, 9-5) - 127

144. (154) Seton Hall (15-16, 9-9) - 110

145. (141) Portland State (17-12, 8-8) - 175

146. (142) LSU (9-20, 4-14) - 17

147. (153) VCU (18-13, 8-6) - 183

148. (133) Samford (18-13, 9-7) - 179

149. (159) Sam Houston State (16-13, 10-6) - 165

150. (151) Milwaukee (14-13, 8-8) - 143

[n00b]

I know at some point you throw conference tournaments in. Are they there yet?

[FOBRA]

Washington State's drop this week was BRUTAL.

[mikegarrison]

Nov 7, 2016 20:15:10 GMT -5 n00b said:

I know at some point you throw conference tournaments in. Are they there yet?

How are you supposed to do that when the opponents are not known?

Anyway, what would really be the point? Those happen in the last week of the season anyway.

[n00b]

FYI...

Last 4 In
45. Cincinnati
46. Northern Iowa
47. Georgia Tech
48. Temple

First Four Out
49. Missouri State
50. Notre Dame
51. Loyola Marymount
52. Indiana
(53. Illinois)
(54. Iowa)

[bluepenquin]

+1/-1 conference wins.

Pretty wide gap between 16 and 17 and then between 22 and 23.

1. Nebraska (18 Wins-1) (19 Wins-1) (17 Wins-3)
2. Wisconsin (16 Wins-2) (17 Wins-1) (15 Wins-3)
4. Minnesota (15 Wins-4) (16 Wins-4) (14 Wins-4)
8. Michigan State (13 Wins-8) (14 Wins-6) (12 Wins-15)
10. Michigan (11 Wins-10) (12 Wins-6) (10 Wins-15)
20. Penn State (14 Wins-21) (15 Wins-17) (13 Wins-26)
22. Purdue (8 Wins-22) (9 Wins-17) (7 Wins-26)
38. Ohio State (9 Wins-38) (10 Wins-29) (8 Wins-42)
52. Indiana (7 Wins-53) (8 Wins-49) (6 Wins-63)
53. Illinois (10 Wins-53) (11 Wins-50) (9 Wins-66)
54. Iowa (10 Wiins-54) (11 Wins-50) (9 Wins-67)


6. Stanford (14 Wins-8) (15 Wins-5) (13 Wins-13)
14. UCLA (14 Wins-14) (15 Wins-7) (13 Wins-16)
15. Washington (14 Wins-14) (15 Wins-7) (13 Wins-16)
19. Oregon (13 Wins-22) (14 Wins-17) (12 Wins-26)
23. Utah (11 Wins-24) (12 Wins-20) (10 Wins-28)
25. Arizona (11 Wins-26) (12 Wins-23) (9 Wins-40)
33. USC (11 Wins-36) (12 Wins-29) (10 Wins-42)
42. Washington State (10 Wins-42) (11 Wins-37) (9 Wins-46)
58. Colorado (8 Wins-56) (9 Wins-50) (7 Wins-68)



3. Texas (14 Wins-3) (15 Wins-2) (13 Wins-4)
9. Kansas (14 Wins-10) (15 Wins-6) (13 Wins-16)
21. Kansas State (9 Wins-18) (10 Wins-17) (8 Wins-22)
29. TCU (6 Wins-29) (7 Wins-24) (5 Wins-41)
31. Baylor (10 Wins-31) (11 Wins-26) (9 Wins-40)
36. Iowa State (8 Wins-40) (9 Wins-29) (7 Wins-44)



7. BYU (15 Wins-10) (16 Wins-6) (14 Wins-16)
11. San Diego (16 Wins-13) (17 Wins-7) (15 Wins-16)
51. Loyola Marymount (11 Wins-51) (12 Wins-47) (10 Wins-60)





13. North Carolina (18 Wins-13) (19 Wins-7) (17 Wins-16)
30. Florida State (16 Wins-29) (17 Wins-23) (15 Wins-39)
34. Pittsburgh (15 Wins-35) (16 Wins-28) (14 Wins-42)
47. Georgia Tech (14 Wins-48) (15 Wins-45) (13 Wins-53)
50. Notre Dame (15 Wins-49) (16 Wins-45) (14 Wins-53)
62. Duke (15 Wins-66) (16 Wins-54) (14 Wins-74)



5. Florida (16 Wins-6) (17 Wins-5) (15 Wins-12)
12. Missouri (16 Wins-9) (17 Wins-6) (15 Wins-15)
18. Kentucky (15 Wins-18) (16 Wins-17) (14 Wins-22)
26. Texas A&M (15 Wins-23) (16 Wins-19) (14 Wins-28)


17. Creighton (18 Wins-17) (-) (17 Wins-22)
28. Marquette (14 Wins-28) (15 Wins-23) (13 Wins-36)


24. UNLV (13 Wins-23) (14 Wins-19) (12 Wins-28)
35. Boise State (15 Wins-33) (16 Wins-27) (14 Wins-41)
43. Colorado State (15 Wins-43) (16 Wins-33) (14 Wins-46)
57. Wyoming (13 Wins-57) (14 Wins-50) (12 Wins-67)



37. Wichita State (14 Wins-40) (15 Wins-29) (13 Wins-44)
46. Northern Iowa (13 Wins-47) (14 Wins-43) (12 Wins-50)
49. Missouri State (15 Wins-50) (16 Wins-46) (14 Wins-56)
56. Southern Illinois (13 Wins-53) (14 Wins-50) (12 Wins-62)



41. SMU (16 Wins-41) (17 Wins-33) (15 Wins-44)
45. Cincinnati (15 Wins-47) (16 Wins-44) (13 Wins-60)
48. Temple (15 Wins-45) (16 Wins-42) (13 Wins-57)
59. UCF (13 Wins-60) (14 Wins-51) (12 Wins-69)




16. Western Kentucky (14 Wins-16) (-) (13 Wins-16)
27. Dayton (14 Wins-27) (-) (13 Wins-32)
32. Hawaii (14 Wins-35) (15 Wins-27) (13 Wins-43)
39. Cleveland State (15 Wins-33) (-) (14 Wins-42)
40. Coastal Carolina (15 Wins-40) (-) (14 Wins-44)
44. Miami-OH (15 Wins-44) (-) (14 Wins-48)

[c4ndlelight]

Has a #1 recruiting class ever failed to qualify for the tournament? What's the highest? I'd guess Purdue's #3 class in 2014 (but they were freshmen at the time) or maybe one of Nina's at Pepperdine?

[trojansc]

Nov 7, 2016 20:18:29 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

Nov 7, 2016 20:15:10 GMT -5 n00b said:

I know at some point you throw conference tournaments in. Are they there yet?

How are you supposed to do that when the opponents are not known?

Anyway, what would really be the point? Those happen in the last week of the season anyway.

Actually, all but two (MVC/Big East) of conference tournaments take place next week. So it will be easy to know before the last week of the season.

[c4ndlelight]

Nov 8, 2016 17:04:41 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 7, 2016 20:18:29 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

How are you supposed to do that when the opponents are not known?

Anyway, what would really be the point? Those happen in the last week of the season anyway.

Actually, all but two (MVC/Big East) of conference tournaments take place next week. So it will be easy to know before the last week of the season.

But the MVC tourney is going to be huge with 1 fairly safe and 3 bubbly teams involved.

[mikegarrison]

Nov 8, 2016 17:15:57 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Nov 8, 2016 17:04:41 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Actually, all but two (MVC/Big East) of conference tournaments take place next week. So it will be easy to know before the last week of the season.

But the MVC tourney is going to be huge with 1 fairly safe and 3 bubbly teams involved.

That sounds a lot like what I expect to be drinking tonight -- anywhere from 1 fairly safe drink to three bubbly ones.

[trojansc]

Nov 8, 2016 17:15:57 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Nov 8, 2016 17:04:41 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Actually, all but two (MVC/Big East) of conference tournaments take place next week. So it will be easy to know before the last week of the season.

But the MVC tourney is going to be huge with 1 fairly safe and 3 bubbly teams involved.

Edit: I misread your post. I didnt see the one fairly safe part


Four bubble teams. You have to count Southern Illinois in the race at least for now.

SIU already beat UNI & Missouri State and has rematches with both teams remaining. If they lose both, they have no at large chance. If they win both, they certainly do. If they split, it's unlikely, but I think it's possible if they lost in the MVC Championship. They won't have a top 25 win, but a lot of teams don't have one right now. (Hawaii, GATech, Notre Dame, SMU, Cincy, Missouri State). And I'm not sure UNLV finished top-25 so add CSU, Boise State, and Wyoming to the list.

[FreeBall]

Nov 7, 2016 19:41:57 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI based on the win probabilities for all remaining games using Pablo ratings. This doesn't include any future conference tournament matches.

RPI Projected rank (LW Rank) school (Overall wins - losses, conference wins - losses) - SOS Rank

1. (1) Nebraska (27-2, 18-2) - 10

2. (2) Wisconsin (24-5, 16-4) - 4

3. (3) Texas (22-4, 14-2) - 2

4. (4) Minnesota (23-6, 15-5) - 3

5. (5) Florida (26-3, 16-2) - 44

6. (6) Stanford (20-8, 14-6) - 7

7. (9) BYU (26-4, 15-3) - 40

8. (10) Michigan State (24-8, 13-7) - 14

9. (12) Kansas (25-3, 14-2) - 74

10. (13) Michigan (22-10, 11-9) - 6

11. (11) San Diego (25-4, 16-2) - 41

12. (16) Missouri (25-5, 16-2) - 24

13. (14) North Carolina (26-4, 18-2) - 58

14. (8) UCLA (23-7, 14-6) - 20

15. (7) Washington (24-6, 14-6) - 30

16. (18) Western Kentucky (27-2, 14-0) - 76

17. (20) Creighton (24-6, 18-0) - 36

18. (17) Kentucky (22-7, 15-3) - 28

19. (25) Oregon (20-9, 13-7) - 15

20. (19) Penn State (22-9, 14-6) - 25

Any guesses as to which teams will get the 16 seeds? If the RPI ended up as shown above, I think Western Kentucky is the only one in the top 16 unlikely to get a seed. IMO the most likely replacement would be in the group of Kentucky, Oregon and Penn State.

[TCMullet]

Blue, your RPI futures list has been immensely helpful to me. Thank you for it.

For my purposes of a Top 50+ list, the 54 in the list have been very stable. I took the top 50 first report of Oct. Then 10/9, 3 teams were in the top 50, so I added them: Cal Poly, Cleveland St, and Hofstra. (Hofstra has dropped off and on.) Then 10/16, I added Northern Iowa. No change til today when from this list (11/6), I add Temple and Missouri State. So my list has grown only to 56. I'm hoping it will grow no more, which for my purposes will be helpful.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 10, 2016 18:23:35 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

Nov 7, 2016 19:41:57 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI based on the win probabilities for all remaining games using Pablo ratings. This doesn't include any future conference tournament matches.

RPI Projected rank (LW Rank) school (Overall wins - losses, conference wins - losses) - SOS Rank

1. (1) Nebraska (27-2, 18-2) - 10

2. (2) Wisconsin (24-5, 16-4) - 4

3. (3) Texas (22-4, 14-2) - 2

4. (4) Minnesota (23-6, 15-5) - 3

5. (5) Florida (26-3, 16-2) - 44

6. (6) Stanford (20-8, 14-6) - 7

7. (9) BYU (26-4, 15-3) - 40

8. (10) Michigan State (24-8, 13-7) - 14

9. (12) Kansas (25-3, 14-2) - 74

10. (13) Michigan (22-10, 11-9) - 6

11. (11) San Diego (25-4, 16-2) - 41

12. (16) Missouri (25-5, 16-2) - 24

13. (14) North Carolina (26-4, 18-2) - 58

14. (8) UCLA (23-7, 14-6) - 20

15. (7) Washington (24-6, 14-6) - 30

16. (18) Western Kentucky (27-2, 14-0) - 76

17. (20) Creighton (24-6, 18-0) - 36

18. (17) Kentucky (22-7, 15-3) - 28

19. (25) Oregon (20-9, 13-7) - 15

20. (19) Penn State (22-9, 14-6) - 25

Any guesses as to which teams will get the 16 seeds? If the RPI ended up as shown above, I think Western Kentucky is the only one in the top 16 unlikely to get a seed. IMO the most likely replacement would be in the group of Kentucky, Oregon and Penn State.

I would have probably gone with Creighton, Oregon, or Penn State as the 16th.  The top 15 may seem relatively stable - but history shows there will likely be more changes than we think.