RPI Futures - Week 13 (11/20/16)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a season ending RPI projection based on the win probabilities for the remaining matches using their Pablo rating.

RPI Projected Rank. (Last Week Rank) School (overall projected wins - losses, conference wins - losses) - RPI Strength of Schedule

1. (2) Wisconsin (25-4, 17-3) - 4
2. (1) Nebraska (28-1, 19-1) - 10
3. (3) Texas (22-4, 14-2) - 2
4. (4) Minnesota (24-5, 16-4) - 3
5. (10) Washington (25-5, 15-5) - 32
6. (9) Kansas (26-2, 15-1) - 72
7. (8) UCLA (24-6, 15-5) - 30
8. (6) BYU (27-3, 16-2) - 37
9. (11) Stanford (21-7, 15-5) - 9
10. (14) Missouri (25-5, 16-2) - 21
11. (5) Florida (26-3, 16-2) - 41
12. (12) North Carolina (27-3, 19-1) - 48
13. (7) Michigan State (24-8, 13-7) - 15
14. (15) San Diego (25-4, 16-2) - 40
15. (13) Michigan (22-10, 11-9) - 6
16. (16) Western Kentucky (30-2, 17-0) - 84
17. (17) Kentucky (23-6, 16-2) - 25
18. (18) Creighton (25-6, 19-0) - 35
19. (19) Utah (21-10, 12-8) - 13
20. (20) Kansas State (20-9, 9-7) - 11
21. (21) Oregon (20-9, 13-7) - 14
22. (25) Purdue (18-13, 8-12) - 5
23. (32) TCU (14-12, 7-9) - 1
24. (23) Penn State (22-9, 14-6) - 27
25. (27) Dayton (31-1, 16-0) - 151
26. (24) Texas A&M (21-8, 15-3) - 19
27. (28) Hawaii (22-5, 15-1) - 62
28. (30) Florida State (24-5, 17-3) - 80
29. (36) Boise State (25-6, 16-2) - 67
30. (26) Iowa State (17-11, 9-7) - 8
31. (22) UNLV (23-7, 12-6) - 42
32. (29) Arizona (18-14, 10-10) - 7
33. (37) SMU (24-8, 17-3) - 47
34. (35) Wichita State (22-7, 15-3) - 57
35. (33) Marquette (24-7, 14-5) - 68
36. (31) Baylor (22-10, 10-6) - 34
37. (34) Ohio State (19-13, 9-11) - 12
38. (44) Coastal Carolina (27-4, 18-1) - 127
39. (43) Cleveland State (25-5, 16-2) - 106
40. (40) Pittsburgh (24-8, 15-5) - 71
41. (39) Washington State (21-11, 11-9) - 36
42. (38) USC (19-12, 11-9) - 20
43. (42) Cincinnati (22-9, 17-3) - 43
44. (45) Miami-OH (24-6, 16-2) - 104
45. (46) Northern Iowa (24-8, 15-4) - 88
46. (47) Missouri State (25-7, 16-2) - 117
47. (49) Temple (22-8, 15-5) - 86
48. (48) Georgia Tech (24-8, 15-5) - 89
49. (41) Colorado State (21-8, 15-3) - 79
50. (55) James Madison (21-10, 13-5) - 58
51. (66) Northern Illinois (25-5, 17-1) - 168
52. (58) Illinois (17-14, 10-10) - 22
53. (61) Lipscomb (22-7, 14-2) - 124
54. (50) Duke (22-8, 16-4) - 118
55. (57) Loyola Marymount (19-11, 10-8) - 66
56. (51) Hofstra (20-10, 10-7) - 78
57. (54) Cal Poly (18-9, 11-5) - 74
58. (53) UCF (23-10, 13-7) - 101
59. (56) Indiana (18-15, 7-13) - 23
60. (59) Arkansas State (25-8, 17-2) - 136
61. (65) Alabama (19-12, 8-10) - 51
62. (67) Florida Gulf Coast (27-6, 13-4) - 178
63. (71) Rice (20-12, 12-5) - 52
64. (52) Southern Illinois (22-11, 13-6) - 87
65. (69) Texas-San Antonio (20-8, 11-5) - 121
66. (72) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (24-7, 19-0) - 154
67. (60) Iowa (19-13, 9-11) - 54
68. (78) Xavier (19-13, 13-6) - 61
69. (62) Notre Dame (22-10, 13-7) - 110
70. (73) Villanova (18-13, 9-9) - 49
71. (68) Wyoming (18-13, 11-7) - 64
72. (64) Long Beach State (21-10, 13-3) - 119
73. (75) NC State (19-13, 12-8) - 82
74. (76) Towson (24-9, 11-7) - 152
75. (63) Tulsa (19-13, 8-12) - 63
76. (81) Wisconsin-Green Bay (21-9, 13-5) - 141
77. (87) Gonzaga (17-11, 10-8) - 81
78. (86) Saint Louis (18-14, 13-4) - 53
79. (70) Colorado (14-16, 6-14) - 33
80. (82) Nevada (20-10, 11-7) - 126
81. (80) Princeton (19-4, 13-1) - 239
82. (83) Texas State (21-12, 14-4) - 111
83. (74) New Mexico State (24-7, 13-2) - 187
84. (79) Pacific (15-15, 9-9) - 38
85. (89) Tulane (18-14, 10-10) - 85
86. (90) San Diego State (16-16, 8-10) - 46
87. (84) UCSB (18-11, 9-7) - 115
88. (98) Delaware (16-16, 10-9) - 44
89. (77) South Carolina (19-11, 7-11) - 131
90. (92) Ole Miss (17-14, 6-12) - 75
91. (102) Portland (17-13, 10-8) - 108
92. (95) Tennessee (16-15, 6-12) - 73
93. (99) American (27-7, 17-1) - 247
94. (85) Northeastern (20-11, 10-7) - 143
95. (105) Northern Arizona (24-8, 14-5) - 207
96. (94) South Dakota (25-7, 14-4) - 249
97. (116) North Dakota (26-9, 17-2) - 211
98. (88) Oklahoma (14-15, 5-11) - 55
99. (97) UNCW (17-11, 7-9) - 128
100. (112) SIUE (22-8, 15-4) - 210
101. (93) College of Charleston (17-12, 10-7) - 120
102. (110) Miami-FL (15-17, 9-11) - 45
103. (100) Southern Miss (23-8, 12-4) - 224
104. (91) UConn (17-14, 8-12) - 91
105. (121) Murray State (23-8, 18-1) - 225
106. (103) Yale (19-5, 11-3) - 259
107. (109) Auburn (15-16, 9-9) - 65
108. (96) Marshall (22-8, 11-4) - 217
109. (101) East Tennessee State (22-8, 14-4) - 218
110. (104) Sacramento State (20-12, 14-4) - 144
111. (107) Pepperdine (12-18, 6-12) - 28
112. (124) Denver (23-8, 15-3) - 245
113. (106) Northern Kentucky (18-11, 12-6) - 146
114. (132) High Point (23-9, 14-5) - 213
115. (114) Bowling Green (21-10, 11-7) - 185
116. (113) Butler (20-14, 9-9) - 134
117. (118) Radford (24-6, 15-3) - 278
118. (108) Oregon State (12-19, 5-15) - 29
119. (122) Oakland (19-13, 11-7) - 142
120. (115) Kennesaw State (18-11, 12-3) - 160
121. (128) Fairfield (29-5, 20-0) - 296
122. (119) USF (18-14, 9-11) - 132
123. (146) UT Rio Grande Valley (21-13, 10-7) - 163
124. (143) New Mexico (16-16, 6-12) - 95
125. (111) Illinois State (16-15, 9-10) - 122
126. (117) Santa Clara (16-14, 7-11) - 114
127. (126) Ohio (16-15, 12-6) - 103
128. (131) Idaho State (16-15, 11-7) - 99
129. (140) Fresno State (15-14, 6-12) - 93
130. (120) DePaul (13-17, 7-11) - 50
131. (123) Albany (16-10, 10-4) - 170
132. (133) Utah Valley (16-14, 11-5) - 123
133. (141) Arizona State (11-21, 4-16) - 17
134. (137) Austin Peay (24-11, 13-5) - 233
135. (148) Samford (21-13, 12-7) - 174
136. (129) Utah State (14-16, 8-10) - 83
137. (150) Sam Houston State (18-14, 12-7) - 150
138. (125) LSU (9-20, 4-14) - 18
139. (145) Seton Hall (16-16, 10-9) - 116
140. (135) West Virginia (12-18, 3-13) - 60
141. (127) Maryland (12-20, 4-16) - 39
142. (134) Rhode Island (17-10, 12-3) - 196
143. (149) UC Davis (14-15, 7-9) - 112
144. (136) Portland State (18-12, 9-8) - 171
145. (144) Toledo (16-14, 9-9) - 135
146. (151) New Hampshire (21-10, 12-2) - 244
147. (138) Texas Tech (10-21, 0-16) - 26
148. (130) Northern Colorado (18-11, 12-5) - 195
149. (139) Army (20-11, 12-5) - 220
150. (152) VCU (19-14, 9-7) - 169

[bluepenquin]

Here is a scenario for teams 5 through 14 and where they will land if everyone wins their matches this week. Kind of gives a pecking order.

Assume UCLA beats Washington:

5. UCLA (Washington, USC)
6. Kansas (Baylor)
7. Stanford (Oregon, Cal)
8. BYU (LMU)
9. Washington (UCLA, Washington State)
10. Missouri (Georgia, Tennessee)
11. Florida (Auburn, Arkansas)
12. North Carolina (Duke, Wake Forest)
13. Michigan State (Michigan, Iowa)
14. San Diego (Pepperdine)

and if Washington beat UCLA:

5. Washington
6. Kansas
7. Stanford
8. BYU
9. Missouri
10. Florida
11. North Carolina
12. UCLA
13. Michigan State
14. San Diego

[FOBRA]

Nov 21, 2016 16:42:48 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Here is a scenario for teams 5 through 14 and where they will land if everyone wins their matches this week. Kind of gives a pecking order.

Assume UCLA beats Washington:

5. UCLA (Washington, USC)
6. Kansas (Baylor)

This is kind of an interesting scenario, because this could be 2 conference champs that can't host because of facilities issues. They could be granted top seeds ahead of Texas/Minnesota but then Tx/Mn could host the regional (but have a tougher sweet 16 matchup).

[bluepenquin]

And if teams 5 through 14 lose all their matches this week - where would their RPI be:

5. Washington - #12 (I would consider them a seed lock)
6. Kansas - #11 (I would consider them a seed lock)
7. UCLA - #13 (I would consider them a seed lock)
8. BYU - #12 (I would consider them a seed lock)
9. Stanford - #17 (Not a lock, but only needs to win one game this week to be a lock)
10. Missouri - #16 (Not a lock, but huge favorites in both matches this week)
11. Florida - #17 (Not a lock, but huge favorites in both matches this week)
12. North Carolina - #17 (Not a lock)
13. Michigan State - #17 (Not a lock)
14. San Diego - #17 (Not a lock)

[bluepenquin]

Spots 15-30 if everyone wins their matches this week - except Michigan losses both of theirs. Assumes Creighton beats Marquette in their conference tournament.


15. Kentucky (Tennessee)
16. Creighton (Seton Hall, Marquette)

17. Western Kentucky (Idle)
18. Utah (Arizona, Colorado)
19. Michigan (Michigan State, Nebraska)
20. Oregon (Stanford, Oregon State)
21. Kansas State (Texas Tech)
22. Purdue (Maryland, Ohio State)
23. Penn State (Northwestern, Penn State Illinois)
24. TCU (West Virginia)
25. Iowa State (Baylor, Oklahoma)
26. Texas A&M (LSU, Auburn)
27. Florida State (Clemson, Georgia Tech)
28. Dayton (Idle)
29. Hawaii (Idle)
30. Boise State (Air Force)

[southie]

Good stuff

[stc23]

Nov 21, 2016 17:22:38 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Spots 15-30 if everyone wins their matches this week - except Michigan losses both of theirs. Assumes Creighton beats Marquette in their conference tournament.

23. Penn State (Northwestern, Penn State)

Illinois fans would love to see PSU beat themselves on Saturday.

[Millennium]

Nov 21, 2016 20:39:55 GMT -5 stc23 said:

Nov 21, 2016 17:22:38 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Spots 15-30 if everyone wins their matches this week - except Michigan losses both of theirs. Assumes Creighton beats Marquette in their conference tournament.

23. Penn State (Northwestern, Penn State)

Illinois fans would love to see PSU beat themselves on Saturday. 

What do you mean?  They've been doing it all season long.  I'm sick from it. 

[bluepenquin]

Here is the RPI Future going only through Friday's matches and excluding Saturday.

1. Wisconsin
2. Nebraska
3. Texas
4. Minnesota
5. Washington
6. Florida
7. Kansas
8. North Carolina
9. UCLA
10. Stanford
11. BYU
12. Missouri
13. Michigan State
14. San Diego
15. Michigan
16. Western Kentucky
17. Kentucky
18. Kansas State
19. Creighton
20. Utah
21. Oregon
22. Purdue
23. Penn State
24. TCU
25. Texas A&M
26. Dayton
27. Hawaii
28. Iowa State
29. Florida State
30. Arizona
31. Boise State
32. UNLV
33. SMU
34. Wichita State
35. Ohio State
36. Pittsburgh
37. Marquette
38. Coastal Carolina
39. Baylor
40. Cleveland State
41. Washington State
42. Cincinnati
43. USC
44. Miami-OH
45. Northern Iowa
46. Missouri State
47. Temple
48. Georgia Tech
49. Colorado State
50. Illinois
51. James Madison
52. Northern Illinois
53. Alabama
54. Lipscomb
55. Duke
56. Indiana
57. Loyola Marymount
58. Hofstra
59. UCF
60. Cal Poly

[bluepenquin]

However, here is what it would be if we assume the following results (I am going to run some scenarios, but only looking at seed order):

North Carolina beats Duke on Wednesday.
Creighton beats Seton Hall in the semi finals of the BE tournament.
Wisconsin beat Iowa
Utah wins both of their matches
Stanford wins both of their matches
Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, BYU, and San Diego win their matches before Saturday.

Here is what the RPI Future would be:

1. Wisconsin
2. Nebraska
3. Texas
4. Minnesota
5. North Carolina
6. Florida
7. Stanford
8. Washington
9. BYU
10. Kansas
11. Missouri
12. UCLA
13. Michigan State
14. San Diego
15. Michigan
16. Kentucky
17. Western Kentucky
18. Utah
19. Creighton
20. Kansas State

[bluepenquin]

Hold those other matches constant - and here is what you get if Minnesota beats Nebraska:

1. Wisconsin
2. Texas
3. Minnesota
4. Nebraska

If Nebraska beats Minnesota then it stays the same: Wisconsin, Nebraska, Texas, Minnesota

[bluepenquin]

Now for Washington and UCLA:

If Washington wins (again, we are only looking at what the committee would see on Saturday morning, not what the final RPI would be):

5. Washington
6. North Carolina
7. Florida
8. Stanford
9. BYU
10. Kansas
11. Missouri
12. Michigan State
13. UCLA

And if UCLA wins:

5. North Carolina
6. Florida
7. UCLA
8. Stanford
9. BYU
10. Kansas
11. Missouri
12. Washington
13. Michigan State

[Babar]

Which tells you how goofy the RPI is.

[bluepenquin]

And finally, Michigan vs. Michigan State:

If Michigan wins:

13. Michigan
14. Michigan State
15. San Diego
16. Kentucky

If Michigan State wins:

11. Michigan State
12. Missouri
13. UCLA (or Washington)
14. San Diego
15. Kentucky
16. Western Kentucky
17. Utah
18. Michigan

[c4ndlelight]

Nov 22, 2016 18:47:15 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

And finally, Michigan vs. Michigan State:

If Michigan wins:

13. Michigan
14. Michigan State
15. San Diego
16. Kentucky

If Michigan State wins:

11. Michigan State
12. Missouri
13. UCLA (or Washington)
14. San Diego
15. Kentucky
16. West Virginia
17. Utah
18. Michigan

West Virginia?