RPI Futures - Week 3 (9/10/17)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI based on the win probabilities for all remaining games on the schedule using each team's Pablo rating.

1. Florida - SEC (23-3) - .6909, LW - 2, SOS - 12
2. Wisconsin - Big Ten (23-6) - .6905, LW - 3, SOS - 1
3. Minnesota - Big Ten (26-5) - .6832, LW - 1, SOS - 9
4. Penn State - Big Ten (25-5) - .6789, LW - 7, SOS - 21
5. Texas - Big 12 (21-5) - .6657, LW - 4, SOS - 8
6. Stanford - Pac 12 (21-8) - .6567, LW - 6, SOS - 10
7. Creighton - Big East (24-5) - .6561, LW - 5, SOS - 24
8. Nebraska - Big Ten (22-8) - .6540, LW - 11, SOS - 13
9. Washington - Pac 12 (22-9) - .6540, LW - 10, SOS - 14
10. Oregon - Pac 12 (19-9) - .6501, LW - 13, SOS - 6
11. Illinois - Big Ten (22-9) - .6487, LW - 9, SOS - 7
12. Kansas - Big 12 (23-6) - .6424, LW - 18, SOS - 27
13. Kentucky - SEC (19-10) - .6356, LW - 12, SOS - 4
14. Purdue - Big Ten (22-9) - .6349, LW - 16, SOS - 17
15. Utah - Pac 12 (21-10) - .6312, LW - 17, SOS - 18
16. Iowa State - Big 12 (20-7) - .6239, LW - 22, SOS - 29
17. Colorado - Pac 12 (20-11) - .6225, LW - 20, SOS - 26
18. Michigan State - Big Ten (18-11) - .6217, LW - 15, SOS - 11
19. USC - Pac 12 (19-12) - .6192, LW - 19, SOS - 23
20. UCLA - Pac 12 (17-12) - .6179, LW - 8, SOS - 5
21. Oregon State - Pac 12 (20-12) - .6150, LW - 26, SOS - 20
22. Texas A&M - SEC (14-11) - .6141, LW - 23, SOS - 2
23. Notre Dame - ACC (24-7) - .6114, LW - 30, SOS - 71
24. Wichita State - American Athletic (24-7) - .6083, LW - 14, SOS - 66
25. Washington State - Pac 12 (18-14) - .6035, LW - 27, SOS - 15
26. Louisville - ACC (20-10) - .6020, LW - 67, SOS - 36
27. San Diego - West Coast (21-7) - .5979, LW - 31, SOS - 67
28. Auburn - SEC (18-11) - .5972, LW - 40, SOS - 30
29. Colorado State - Mountain West (25-6) - .5965, LW - 32, SOS - 110
30. Maryland - Big Ten (18-14) - .5958, LW - 36, SOS - 19
31. Michigan - Big Ten (19-13) - .5956, LW - 21, SOS - 28
32. Miami-FL - ACC (20-9) - .5948, LW - 44, SOS - 49
33. Cal Poly - Big West (22-6) - .5928, LW - 33, SOS - 107
34. BYU - West Coast (24-6) - .5924, LW - 25, SOS - 121
35. Baylor - Big 12 (18-11) - .5886, LW - 38, SOS - 43
36. Ohio State - Big Ten (15-16) - .5881, LW - 24, SOS - 3
37. Northwestern - Big Ten (18-14) - .5871, LW - 47, SOS - 34
38. Florida State - ACC (17-10) - .5871, LW - 35, SOS - 47
39. Arkansas - SEC (19-11) - .5848, LW - 45, SOS - 46
40. North Texas - Conference USA (24-4) - .5834, LW - 101, SOS - 192
41. Stephen F. Austin - Southland (28-4) - .5827, LW - 75, SOS - 208
42. Western Kentucky - Conference USA (24-6) - .5823, LW - 41, SOS - 145
43. Marquette - Big East (18-11) - .5804, LW - 28, SOS - 41
44. James Madison - Colonial (23-5) - .5802, LW - 88, SOS - 151
45. Arizona State - Pac 12 (17-15) - .5794, LW - 64, SOS - 37
46. Missouri State - Missouri Valley (24-7) - .5781, LW - 50, SOS - 125
47. Indiana - Big Ten (18-14) - .5778, LW - 37, SOS - 40
48. Iowa - Big Ten (17-16) - .5765, LW - 29, SOS - 25
49. NC State - ACC (18-13) - .5757, LW - 90, SOS - 38
50. North Dakota - Big Sky (27-7) - .5754, LW - 68, SOS - 167
51. Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun (18-9) - .5745, LW - 34, SOS - 70
52. Alabama - SEC (20-12) - .5743, LW - 72, SOS - 55
53. Colgate - Patriot (23-5) - .5740, LW - 65, SOS - 168
54. Princeton - Ivy (19-5) - .5732, LW - 111, SOS - 144
55. Towson - Colonial (26-4) - .5725, LW - 57, SOS - 243
56. VCU - Atlantic 10 (24-6) - .5718, LW - 95, SOS - 154
57. LSU - SEC (18-11) - .5712, LW - 62, SOS - 65
58. North Carolina - ACC (15-13) - .5696, LW - 48, SOS - 33
59. Texas Tech - Big 12 (19-10) - .5693, LW - 99, SOS - 80
60. Boise State - Mountain West (20-10) - .5692, LW - 58, SOS - 81
61. Duke - ACC (20-11) - .5677, LW - 55, SOS - 74
62. Butler - Big East (20-10) - .5672, LW - 63, SOS - 79
63. Villanova - Big East (18-11) - .5638, LW - 46, SOS - 59
64. Radford - Big South (22-5) - .5637, LW - 54, SOS - 232
65. Florida Atlantic - Conference USA (18-8) - .5635, LW - 113, SOS - 128
66. TCU - Big 12 (14-14) - .5633, LW - 43, SOS - 35
67. Navy - Patriot (22-7) - .5631, LW - 96, SOS - 174
68. Denver - The Summit (20-6) - .5621, LW - 53, SOS - 186
69. Georgia - SEC (18-13) - .5620, LW - 71, SOS - 58
70. Pittsburgh - ACC (18-13) - .5617, LW - 56, SOS - 62
71. Ole Miss - SEC (18-13) - .5617, LW - 66, SOS - 53
72. Tennessee - SEC (14-13) - .5587, LW - 49, SOS - 39
73. College of Charleston - Colonial (22-8) - .5584, LW - 70, SOS - 165
74. Arizona - Pac 12 (12-17) - .5570, LW - 39, SOS - 22
75. Hawaii - Big West (17-10) - .5569, LW - 42, SOS - 88
76. Cal - Pac 12 (15-16) - .5551, LW - 80, SOS - 42
77. High Point - Big South (19-10) - .5550, LW - 59, SOS - 114
78. West Virginia - Big 12 (17-13) - .5534, LW - 91, SOS - 72
79. Tulane - American Athletic (24-9) - .5527, LW - 122, SOS - 164
80. SMU - American Athletic (20-11) - .5522, LW - 73, SOS - 99
81. Dayton - Atlantic 10 (21-8) - .5513, LW - 76, SOS - 179
82. Kennesaw State - Atlantic Sun (17-6) - .5506, LW - 94, SOS - 220
83. UC Irvine - Big West (21-7) - .5505, LW - 60, SOS - 204
84. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley (23-9) - .5499, LW - 52, SOS - 193
85. SIUE - Ohio Valley (21-7) - .5482, LW - 78, SOS - 224
86. Georgia Tech - ACC (16-15) - .5481, LW - 103, SOS - 48
87. American - Patriot (20-10) - .5471, LW - 74, SOS - 147
88. Central Arkansas - Southland (22-6) - .5466, LW - 120, SOS - 251
89. Portland - West Coast (19-11) - .5464, LW - 98, SOS - 105
90. San Jose State - Mountain West (19-10) - .5456, LW - 173, SOS - 146
91. Arkansas State - Sun Belt (19-10) - .5445, LW - 61, SOS - 136
92. Tulsa - American Athletic (18-14) - .5435, LW - 87, SOS - 77
93. Miami-OH - Mid-American (20-9) - .5422, LW - 83, SOS - 159
94. UCF - American Athletic (18-14) - .5422, LW - 84, SOS - 78
95. Rice - Conference USA (17-11) - .5415, LW - 81, SOS - 123
96. Saint Marys - West Coast (14-14) - .5410, LW - 141, SOS - 52
97. St. Johns - Big East (18-15) - .5406, LW - 89, SOS - 83
98. Santa Clara - West Coast (15-15) - .5404, LW - 114, SOS - 54
99. Missouri - SEC (13-18) - .5398, LW - 51, SOS - 31
100. Virginia Tech - ACC (16-15) - .5390, LW - 92, SOS - 61
101. Kansas State - Big 12 (12-17) - .5388, LW - 93, SOS - 32
102. Temple - American Athletic (16-12) - .5378, LW - 109, SOS - 85
103. Austin Peay - Ohio Valley (23-9) - .5374, LW - 86, SOS - 236
104. Belmont - Ohio Valley (16-12) - .5366, LW - 85, SOS - 90
105. New Mexico State - WAC (21-7) - .5360, LW - 106, SOS - 259
106. Cleveland State - Horizon (18-9) - .5340, LW - 116, SOS - 189
107. Georgetown - Big East (15-15) - .5339, LW - 82, SOS - 60
108. South Carolina - SEC (14-16) - .5332, LW - 77, SOS - 50
109. New Mexico - Mountain West (19-13) - .5326, LW - 130, SOS - 141
110. Portland State - Big Sky (19-9) - .5326, LW - 104, SOS - 231
111. Providence - Big East (21-12) - .5322, LW - 126, SOS - 160
112. Texas State - Sun Belt (20-11) - .5322, LW - 118, SOS - 173
113. Loyola Marymount - West Coast (16-13) - .5297, LW - 110, SOS - 92
114. Yale - Ivy (14-9) - .5284, LW - 112, SOS - 180
115. UC Riverside - Big West (17-11) - .5284, LW - 156, SOS - 143
116. Florida Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun (20-9) - .5280, LW - 119, SOS - 227
117. East Tennessee State - Southern (15-12) - .5266, LW - 100, SOS - 104
118. Montana State - Big Sky (16-9) - .5265, LW - 145, SOS - 183
119. Houston Baptist - Southland (19-8) - .5263, LW - 155, SOS - 250
120. Coastal Carolina - Sun Belt (16-9) - .5255, LW - 102, SOS - 194
121. Northern Kentucky - Horizon (15-10) - .5250, LW - 97, SOS - 149
122. Ball State - Mid-American (18-11) - .5249, LW - 133, SOS - 196
123. North Dakota State - The Summit (18-8) - .5242, LW - 146, SOS - 263
124. Oakland - Horizon (15-13) - .5237, LW - 124, SOS - 108
125. Wyoming - Mountain West (14-16) - .5235, LW - 108, SOS - 64
126. Green Bay - Horizon (14-13) - .5228, LW - 105, SOS - 87
127. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - Southland (14-13) - .5214, LW - 117, SOS - 97
128. Southern Miss - Conference USA (18-12) - .5206, LW - 123, SOS - 199
129. Seton Hall - Big East (14-17) - .5185, LW - 115, SOS - 68
130. Hofstra - Colonial (16-14) - .5183, LW - 143, SOS - 124
131. Murray State - Ohio Valley (18-10) - .5182, LW - 69, SOS - 253
132. Northern Colorado - Big Sky (16-13) - .5181, LW - 167, SOS - 130
133. Wake Forest - ACC (16-16) - .5172, LW - 140, SOS - 94
134. Elon - Colonial (17-14) - .5167, LW - 169, SOS - 148
135. Chattanooga - Southern (17-13) - .5165, LW - 128, SOS - 171
136. Western Michigan - Mid-American (18-9) - .5148, LW - 160, SOS - 260
137. South Alabama - Sun Belt (16-11) - .5144, LW - 190, SOS - 185
138. Idaho - Big Sky (14-13) - .5138, LW - 226, SOS - 126
139. Charlotte - Conference USA (20-10) - .5133, LW - 195, SOS - 279
140. Illinois State - Missouri Valley (18-13) - .5127, LW - 134, SOS - 214
141. Davidson - Atlantic 10 (17-10) - .5127, LW - 159, SOS - 235
142. Eastern Michigan - Mid-American (20-12) - .5126, LW - 206, SOS - 228
143. Syracuse - ACC (16-17) - .5117, LW - 172, SOS - 96
144. UNC Greensboro - Southern (17-11) - .5117, LW - 144, SOS - 221
145. Cornell - Ivy (11-12) - .5117, LW - 196, SOS - 116
146. Milwaukee - Horizon (18-12) - .5112, LW - 135, SOS - 223
147. Furman - Southern (16-13) - .5106, LW - 154, SOS - 172
148. Pepperdine - West Coast (15-16) - .5101, LW - 149, SOS - 112
149. Utah State - Mountain West (17-13) - .5098, LW - 129, SOS - 177
150. UConn - American Athletic (16-16) - .5093, LW - 125, SOS - 119
151. Drake - Missouri Valley (20-12) - .5088, LW - 185, SOS - 249
152. Oral Roberts - The Summit (13-13) - .5087, LW - 191, SOS - 113
153. Sacramento State - Big Sky (19-13) - .5083, LW - 170, SOS - 226
154. Mississippi State - SEC (14-19) - .5079, LW - 127, SOS - 76
155. Xavier - Big East (12-20) - .5077, LW - 79, SOS - 57
156. UC Davis - Big West (14-16) - .5061, LW - 107, SOS - 102
157. Northeastern - Colonial (15-14) - .5045, LW - 187, SOS - 155
158. Pacific - West Coast (13-16) - .5042, LW - 157, SOS - 91
159. Oklahoma - Big 12 (7-22) - .5038, LW - 152, SOS - 16
160. Illinois-Chicago - Horizon (17-12) - .5035, LW - 221, SOS - 229
161. McNeese State - Southland (19-12) - .5019, LW - 266, SOS - 276
162. Campbell - Big South (19-11) - .5018, LW - 136, SOS - 288
163. Ohio - Mid-American (15-15) - .5012, LW - 138, SOS - 163
164. Gonzaga - West Coast (12-18) - .5007, LW - 168, SOS - 75
165. UNCW - Colonial (12-16) - .5000, LW - 121, SOS - 86
166. Sacred Heart - Northeast (16-11) - .4996, LW - 211, SOS - 248
167. San Diego State - Mountain West (13-18) - .4995, LW - 162, SOS - 100
168. Army - Patriot (16-13) - .4986, LW - 164, SOS - 234
169. UT Arlington - Sun Belt (16-13) - .4981, LW - 142, SOS - 213
170. Cal State Northridge - Big West (14-14) - .4965, LW - 148, SOS - 175
171. Virginia - ACC (9-22) - .4963, LW - 161, SOS - 44
172. Central Connecticut State - Northeast (16-9) - .4951, LW - 188, SOS - 292
173. LIU Brooklyn - Northeast (15-12) - .4932, LW - 177, SOS - 241
174. Lehigh - Patriot (16-14) - .4931, LW - 197, SOS - 219
175. La Salle - Atlantic 10 (17-13) - .4925, LW - 183, SOS - 274
176. Montana - Big Sky (12-17) - .4920, LW - 223, SOS - 120
177. UNLV - Mountain West (12-18) - .4892, LW - 137, SOS - 101
178. Penn - Ivy (11-11) - .4883, LW - 194, SOS - 195
179. Wofford - Southern (17-13) - .4881, LW - 174, SOS - 272
180. Liberty - Big South (13-16) - .4877, LW - 192, SOS - 161
181. Central Michigan - Mid-American (15-13) - .4873, LW - 200, SOS - 240
182. Houston - American Athletic (12-16) - .4863, LW - 236, SOS - 137
183. Marshall - Conference USA (12-17) - .4861, LW - 158, SOS - 138
184. Howard - Mid-Eastern (16-12) - .4861, LW - 219, SOS - 284
185. Bowling Green - Mid-American (13-14) - .4860, LW - 176, SOS - 187
186. Bryant - Northeast (17-15) - .4859, LW - 256, SOS - 264
187. Toledo - Mid-American (13-15) - .4856, LW - 214, SOS - 178
188. Robert Morris - Northeast (17-13) - .4849, LW - 230, SOS - 280
189. Abilene Christian - Southland (13-15) - .4842, LW - 234, SOS - 166
190. Air Force - Mountain West (13-19) - .4840, LW - 189, SOS - 140
191. Fairfield - Metro Atlantic (19-10) - .4838, LW - 175, SOS - 306
192. Fordham - Atlantic 10 (15-12) - .4835, LW - 227, SOS - 285
193. Boston College - ACC (10-20) - .4833, LW - 254, SOS - 82
194. Utah Valley - WAC (13-16) - .4830, LW - 186, SOS - 191
195. Buffalo - Mid-American (14-13) - .4824, LW - 253, SOS - 244
196. IUPUI - Horizon (10-19) - .4822, LW - 210, SOS - 89
197. DePaul - Big East (10-20) - .4819, LW - 147, SOS - 84
198. Cincinnati - American Athletic (9-23) - .4819, LW - 131, SOS - 63
199. Northern Arizona - Big Sky (12-15) - .4818, LW - 153, SOS - 170
200. Appalachian State - Sun Belt (13-17) - .4818, LW - 224, SOS - 158

[dd2000]

Hawaii with wins over Baylor and Nevada, and an expected loss to BYU, and they drop 33 spots in one week. Hmmm......

[c4ndlelight]

Sept 11, 2017 18:08:35 GMT -5 dd2000 said:

Hawaii with wins over Baylor and Nevada, and an expected loss to BYU, and they drop 33 spots in one week. Hmmm......

The Big West had a rough go of things.

[n00b]

Three Patriot League teams in the top 100.

Impressive.

[FreeBall]

Sept 11, 2017 18:14:05 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Sept 11, 2017 18:08:35 GMT -5 dd2000 said:

Hawaii with wins over Baylor and Nevada, and an expected loss to BYU, and they drop 33 spots in one week. Hmmm......

The Big West had a rough go of things.

Plus, the influence of results from last season on Pablo lessens each week.

[bluepenquin]

The movement after updating Pablo is large. This will become less of a shift as the season goes on and as wins and losses become booked. I still underestimate the impact when loading the new Pablo rating - some big surprises to me for how some teams fell.

[boilermaker5]

Sept 11, 2017 18:28:15 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

The movement after updating Pablo is large. This will become less of a shift as the season goes on and as wins and losses become booked. I still underestimate the impact when loading the new Pablo rating - some big surprises to me for how some teams fell.

So what is the new percentage this week?

[trollhunter]

Sept 11, 2017 18:08:35 GMT -5 dd2000 said:

Hawaii with wins over Baylor and Nevada, and an expected loss to BYU, and they drop 33 spots in one week. Hmmm......

Mostly due to last years Pablo ranking no longer being factored in as much. They were a good team last year in Pablo ranking, which gets carried over for first few weeks in a new season as a starting point.

Hawaii is 4-5 this season with 1 decent win and a SOS of 88. By definition, that makes them about an 80 rank team at this point. They get some Pablo bonus for playing good teams close, but will not get that in RPI.

The first couple weeks of Pablo/RPI Futures aren't always accurate, but by week 4 they are pretty close.

[trollhunter]

Sept 11, 2017 19:24:09 GMT -5 boilermaker5 said:

Sept 11, 2017 18:28:15 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

The movement after updating Pablo is large. This will become less of a shift as the season goes on and as wins and losses become booked. I still underestimate the impact when loading the new Pablo rating - some big surprises to me for how some teams fell.

So what is the new percentage this week?

I believe Pablo is 75% this year, 25% last year at this point. Unless the algorithm has changed again.

Bofa posted this at the end of August 2015:

Week 1: 90% last year***, 10% this year
Week 2: 2/3 last year***, 1/3 this year
Week 3: 50% last year***, 50% this year
Week 4: 1/4 last year***, 3/4 this year
Week 5: all this year

P.S.

It may be 90/60/30/0 this year, I recall he tweeted 60% last week. Probably better to get old data out of system quicker.

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Sept 11, 2017 20:54:56 GMT -5 trollhunter said:

Sept 11, 2017 19:24:09 GMT -5 boilermaker5 said:

So what is the new percentage this week?

I believe Pablo is 75% this year, 25% last year at this point. Unless the algorithm has changed again.

Bofa posted this at the end of August 2015:

Week 1: 90% last year***, 10% this year
Week 2: 2/3 last year***, 1/3 this year
Week 3: 50% last year***, 50% this year
Week 4: 1/4 last year***, 3/4 this year
Week 5: all this year

P.S.

It may be 90/60/30/0 this year, I recall he tweeted 60% last week. Probably better to get old data out of system quicker.

70-75% this season this week. Next week it will be about 90% this season.

It's not better to get old data out of the system too quickly. Early season matches do not constitute enough of a sampling to use them exclusively, and single outliers will have too much of an effect. It's better to temper that. You really need to get about 5 weeks worth of data to rely on this season alone.

[bluepenquin]

Here are the probabilities of hitting certain RPI thresholds and average RPI rank. # of 1st place finishes out of 1000 in parenthesis.

1. Florida - SEC, Avg RPI - 3.526 (335) T4 - 73.0% T16 - 99.3% T45 - 100%
2. Wisconsin - Big Ten, Avg RPI - 4.204 (224) T4 - 66.6% T16 - 98.3% T45 - 100%
3. Minnesota - Big Ten, Avg RPI - 4.992 (125) T4 - 58.9% T16 - 98.3% T45 - 100%
4. Penn State - Big Ten, Avg RPI - 5.687 (108) T4 - 50.5% T16 - 96.7% T45 - 100%
5. Texas - Big 12, Avg RPI - 7.547 (63) T4 - 33.5% T16 - 93.4% T45 - 100%
6. Creighton - Big East, Avg RPI - 9.317 (26) T4 - 19.1% T16 - 90.5% T45 - 100%
7. Stanford - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 11.496 (40) T4 - 18.2% T16 - 79.6% T45 - 99.2%
8. Nebraska - Big Ten, Avg RPI - 11.761 (11) T4 - 11.6% T16 - 79.2% T45 - 99.3%
9. Washington - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 12.037 (29) T4 - 15.2% T16 - 78.3% T45 - 99.2%
10. Illinois - Big Ten, Avg RPI - 13.189 (3) T4 - 6.8% T16 - 73.7% T45 - 99.3%
11. Oregon - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 13.331 (16) T4 - 12.7% T16 - 74.1% T45 - 98.6%
12. Kansas - Big 12, Avg RPI - 13.697 (5) T4 - 7.4% T16 - 70.1% T45 - 100%
13. Kentucky - SEC, Avg RPI - 15.897 (2) T4 - 6.8% T16 - 59.6% T45 - 98.8%
14. Purdue - Big Ten, Avg RPI - 16.784 (3) T4 - 2.5% T16 - 57.2% T45 - 98.0%
15. Utah - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 19.824 (5) T4 - 4.7% T16 - 47.2% T45 - 95.6%
16. Iowa State - Big 12, Avg RPI - 22.051 (1) T4 - 2.0% T16 - 39.4% T45 - 94.3%
17. Michigan State - Big Ten, Avg RPI - 24.06 (0) T4 - 0.9% T16 - 35.9% T45 - 90.8%
18. Colorado - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 24.543 (1) T4 - 2.1% T16 - 30.8% T45 - 91.0%
19. USC - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 25.271 (0) T4 - 1.0% T16 - 34.0% T45 - 88.1%
20. UCLA - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 25.732 (1) T4 - 2.4% T16 - 32.6% T45 - 88.9%
21. Texas A&M - SEC, Avg RPI - 26.306 (0) T4 - 1.7% T16 - 32.1% T45 - 88.5%
22. Notre Dame - ACC, Avg RPI - 26.799 (1) T4 - 0.6% T16 - 22.1% T45 - 90.3%
23. Oregon State - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 27.389 (0) T4 - 0.6% T16 - 25.9% T45 - 87.9%
24. Wichita State - American Athletic, Avg RPI - 28.317 (0) T4 - 0.2% T16 - 15.1% T45 - 90.3%
25. Louisville - ACC, Avg RPI - 33.078 (1) T4 - 0.3% T16 - 16.5% T45 - 79.9%
26. Auburn - SEC, Avg RPI - 35.08 (0) T4 - 0.2% T16 - 14.2% T45 - 75.2%
27. Washington State - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 35.344 (0) T4 - 0.1% T16 - 11.9% T45 - 75.5%
28. San Diego - West Coast, Avg RPI - 36.028 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 8.7% T45 - 75.3%
29. Colorado State - Mountain West, Avg RPI - 36.352 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 6.5% T45 - 75.9%
30. Miami-FL - ACC, Avg RPI - 38 (0) T4 - 0.2% T16 - 10.1% T45 - 71.4%
31. Michigan - Big Ten, Avg RPI - 40.24 (0) T4 - 0.1% T16 - 6.9% T45 - 66.0%
32. Cal Poly - Big West, Avg RPI - 40.372 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 3.5% T45 - 67.4%
33. BYU - West Coast, Avg RPI - 40.978 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 3.6% T45 - 65.4%
34. Maryland - Big Ten, Avg RPI - 41.168 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 7.1% T45 - 66.0%
35. Baylor - Big 12, Avg RPI - 44.373 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 5.4% T45 - 59.9%
36. Florida State - ACC, Avg RPI - 45.632 (0) T4 - 0.1% T16 - 6.7% T45 - 56.9%
37. Ohio State - Big Ten, Avg RPI - 46.545 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 4.2% T45 - 56.3%
38. Arkansas - SEC, Avg RPI - 46.762 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 4.6% T45 - 55.0%
39. Western Kentucky - Conference USA, Avg RPI - 47.375 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.2% T45 - 50.5%
40. Northwestern - Big Ten, Avg RPI - 48.105 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 3.6% T45 - 53.2%
41. Stephen F. Austin - Southland, Avg RPI - 48.611 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.4% T45 - 48.6%
42. Marquette - Big East, Avg RPI - 48.719 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 3.2% T45 - 51.5%
43. North Texas - Conference USA, Avg RPI - 48.96 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.5% T45 - 48.4%
44. James Madison - Colonial, Avg RPI - 52.111 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 1.7% T45 - 44.6%
45. Missouri State - Missouri Valley, Avg RPI - 55.177 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 36.4%
46. North Dakota - Big Sky, Avg RPI - 56.645 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.3% T45 - 32.7%
47. Colgate - Patriot, Avg RPI - 56.936 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.3% T45 - 30.8%
48. Arizona State - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 56.94 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 1.3% T45 - 40.0%
49. Indiana - Big Ten, Avg RPI - 57.059 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 1.1% T45 - 35.7%
50. NC State - ACC, Avg RPI - 57.179 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 1.6% T45 - 35.6%
51. Alabama - SEC, Avg RPI - 57.552 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 1.4% T45 - 36.5%
52. Iowa - Big Ten, Avg RPI - 57.712 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.6% T45 - 35.0%
53. Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun, Avg RPI - 57.979 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.1% T45 - 30.3%
54. Towson - Colonial, Avg RPI - 59.295 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.3% T45 - 28.8%
55. Princeton - Ivy, Avg RPI - 59.503 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.8% T45 - 35.1%
56. VCU - Atlantic 10, Avg RPI - 60.217 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 27.2%
57. LSU - SEC, Avg RPI - 61.816 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 1.7% T45 - 33.8%
58. North Carolina - ACC, Avg RPI - 62.453 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 1.4% T45 - 31.2%
59. Boise State - Mountain West, Avg RPI - 64.482 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.4% T45 - 23.7%
60. Butler - Big East, Avg RPI - 65.093 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.5% T45 - 26.6%
61. Duke - ACC, Avg RPI - 65.875 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.5% T45 - 26.9%
62. Texas Tech - Big 12, Avg RPI - 66.713 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.3% T45 - 26.2%
63. Villanova - Big East, Avg RPI - 69.26 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.3% T45 - 22.2%
64. Radford - Big South, Avg RPI - 69.899 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.2% T45 - 16.6%
65. Florida Atlantic - Conference USA, Avg RPI - 70.097 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.3% T45 - 19.9%
66. Denver - The Summit, Avg RPI - 70.471 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 17.1%
67. Pittsburgh - ACC, Avg RPI - 70.835 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.1% T45 - 19.0%
68. TCU - Big 12, Avg RPI - 70.849 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.7% T45 - 20.9%
69. Navy - Patriot, Avg RPI - 71.332 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 14.5%
70. Ole Miss - SEC, Avg RPI - 71.4 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.4% T45 - 19.2%
71. Georgia - SEC, Avg RPI - 71.438 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.6% T45 - 20.8%
72. Tennessee - SEC, Avg RPI - 76.446 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.4% T45 - 17.9%
73. College of Charleston - Colonial, Avg RPI - 76.833 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.1% T45 - 9.5%
74. High Point - Big South, Avg RPI - 80.307 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 7.3%
75. Hawaii - Big West, Avg RPI - 80.824 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.1% T45 - 10.2%
76. SMU - American Athletic, Avg RPI - 83.602 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 12.3%
77. Arizona - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 83.692 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.3% T45 - 15.6%
78. Cal - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 83.903 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.1% T45 - 12.9%
79. West Virginia - Big 12, Avg RPI - 84.645 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.3% T45 - 8.3%
80. Tulane - American Athletic, Avg RPI - 84.671 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 7.2%
81. Dayton - Atlantic 10, Avg RPI - 87.059 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 3.7%
82. Kennesaw State - Atlantic Sun, Avg RPI - 87.125 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 7.3%
83. UC Irvine - Big West, Avg RPI - 87.867 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.1% T45 - 8.4%
84. SIUE - Ohio Valley, Avg RPI - 89.46 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 4.5%
85. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley, Avg RPI - 90.238 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 2.8%
86. Georgia Tech - ACC, Avg RPI - 91.1 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 7.4%
87. American - Patriot, Avg RPI - 91.975 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 4.2%
88. Central Arkansas - Southland, Avg RPI - 92.267 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 3.1%
89. Portland - West Coast, Avg RPI - 93.151 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 4.4%
90. Arkansas State - Sun Belt, Avg RPI - 93.862 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 2.8%
91. San Jose State - Mountain West, Avg RPI - 94.617 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 5.4%
92. UCF - American Athletic, Avg RPI - 97.044 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.1% T45 - 3.4%
93. Tulsa - American Athletic, Avg RPI - 97.707 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.1% T45 - 4.3%
94. Miami-OH - Mid-American, Avg RPI - 99.369 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 1.6%
95. Rice - Conference USA, Avg RPI - 100.041 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 1.9%
96. St. Johns - Big East, Avg RPI - 100.91 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 3.7%
97. Missouri - SEC, Avg RPI - 101.384 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 3.9%
98. Virginia Tech - ACC, Avg RPI - 101.431 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 3.4%
99. Santa Clara - West Coast, Avg RPI - 101.623 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 2.2%
100. Saint Marys - West Coast, Avg RPI - 102.539 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.1% T45 - 4.4$
101. Temple - American Athletic, Avg RPI - 105.024 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.1% T45 - 4.1%
102. Kansas State - Big 12, Avg RPI - 105.934 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 3.3%
103. Austin Peay - Ohio Valley, Avg RPI - 106.764 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 0.3%
104. New Mexico State - WAC, Avg RPI - 107.486 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 0.8%
105. Belmont - Ohio Valley, Avg RPI - 107.988 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.0% T45 - 0.5%
106. Georgetown - Big East, Avg RPI - 110.346 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0.1% T45 - 1.9%
107. Cleveland State - Horizon, Avg RPI - 111.268 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 1.3%
108. Texas State - Sun Belt, Avg RPI - 112.252 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.7%
109. Providence - Big East, Avg RPI - 112.523 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 1.4%
110. South Carolina - SEC, Avg RPI - 112.853 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 2.2%
111. New Mexico - Mountain West, Avg RPI - 113.35 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 1.3%
112. Portland State - Big Sky, Avg RPI - 113.577 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.8%
113. Florida Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun, Avg RPI - 117.78 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.2%
114. UC Riverside - Big West, Avg RPI - 118.567 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 1.4%
115. Yale - Ivy, Avg RPI - 119.43 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 1.2%
116. Loyola Marymount - West Coast, Avg RPI - 121.538 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.8%
117. Houston Baptist - Southland, Avg RPI - 121.792 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.5%
118. Montana State - Big Sky, Avg RPI - 123.024 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 1.3%
119. East Tennessee State - Southern, Avg RPI - 123.029 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.7%
120. Northern Kentucky - Horizon, Avg RPI - 123.643 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.7%
121. Coastal Carolina - Sun Belt, Avg RPI - 124.119 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.2%
122. Ball State - Mid-American, Avg RPI - 124.445 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.1%
123. North Dakota State - The Summit, Avg RPI - 125.013 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.2%
124. Oakland - Horizon, Avg RPI - 126.55 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.4%
125. Wyoming - Mountain West, Avg RPI - 128.249 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.8%
126. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - Southland, Avg RPI - 129.14 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
127. Green Bay - Horizon, Avg RPI - 131.688 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.2%
128. Southern Miss - Conference USA, Avg RPI - 131.783 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.1%
129. Seton Hall - Big East, Avg RPI - 135.368 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.4%
130. Wake Forest - ACC, Avg RPI - 136.106 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.5%
131. Murray State - Ohio Valley, Avg RPI - 136.35 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.1%
132. Hofstra - Colonial, Avg RPI - 136.62 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.2%
133. Northern Colorado - Big Sky, Avg RPI - 136.985 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.1%
134. Elon - Colonial, Avg RPI - 137.167 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.1%
135. Chattanooga - Southern, Avg RPI - 138.015 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.2%
136. South Alabama - Sun Belt, Avg RPI - 140.135 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
137. Western Michigan - Mid-American, Avg RPI - 141.339 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
138. Eastern Michigan - Mid-American, Avg RPI - 144.126 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
139. Charlotte - Conference USA, Avg RPI - 144.433 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.1%
140. Idaho - Big Sky, Avg RPI - 145.035 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.1%
141. Davidson - Atlantic 10, Avg RPI - 145.335 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.1%
142. UNC Greensboro - Southern, Avg RPI - 145.925 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
143. Syracuse - ACC, Avg RPI - 146.012 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.3%
144. Illinois State - Missouri Valley, Avg RPI - 147.485 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
145. Milwaukee - Horizon, Avg RPI - 147.877 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.2%
146. Utah State - Mountain West, Avg RPI - 147.954 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
147. Furman - Southern, Avg RPI - 149.017 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.1%
148. Cornell - Ivy, Avg RPI - 149.97 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.7%
149. Pepperdine - West Coast, Avg RPI - 150.113 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.1%
150. Oral Roberts - The Summit, Avg RPI - 150.984 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
151. Mississippi State - SEC, Avg RPI - 151.925 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
152. UConn - American Athletic, Avg RPI - 152.002 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
153. Drake - Missouri Valley, Avg RPI - 152.774 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
154. Xavier - Big East, Avg RPI - 152.882 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
155. Sacramento State - Big Sky, Avg RPI - 153.274 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
156. UC Davis - Big West, Avg RPI - 155.211 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
157. Pacific - West Coast, Avg RPI - 159.787 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
158. Northeastern - Colonial, Avg RPI - 159.838 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
159. Illinois-Chicago - Horizon, Avg RPI - 160.392 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
160. Campbell - Big South, Avg RPI - 162.864 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
161. McNeese State - Southland, Avg RPI - 163.048 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
162. Oklahoma - Big 12, Avg RPI - 164.912 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
163. Gonzaga - West Coast, Avg RPI - 166.413 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
164. San Diego State - Mountain West, Avg RPI - 166.437 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
165. Ohio - Mid-American, Avg RPI - 166.914 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
166. Sacred Heart - Northeast, Avg RPI - 167.087 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
167. UT Arlington - Sun Belt, Avg RPI - 167.801 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
168. UNCW - Colonial, Avg RPI - 169.679 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
169. Army - Patriot, Avg RPI - 172.008 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
170. Cal State Northridge - Big West, Avg RPI - 172.589 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
171. Virginia - ACC, Avg RPI - 173.024 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
172. Central Connecticut State - Northeast, Avg RPI - 175.234 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
173. LIU Brooklyn - Northeast, Avg RPI - 177.925 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
174. Lehigh - Patriot, Avg RPI - 178.522 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
175. La Salle - Atlantic 10, Avg RPI - 179.902 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
176. Montana - Big Sky, Avg RPI - 181.653 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
177. UNLV - Mountain West, Avg RPI - 185.445 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
178. Wofford - Southern, Avg RPI - 186.267 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
179. Penn - Ivy, Avg RPI - 188.077 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.1%
180. Liberty - Big South, Avg RPI - 188.215 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
181. Howard - Mid-Eastern, Avg RPI - 190.286 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
182. Bryant - Northeast, Avg RPI - 190.77 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
183. Robert Morris - Northeast, Avg RPI - 191.039 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
184. Bowling Green - Mid-American, Avg RPI - 191.887 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
185. Houston - American Athletic, Avg RPI - 192.113 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
186. Central Michigan - Mid-American, Avg RPI - 192.231 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0.1%
187. Marshall - Conference USA, Avg RPI - 194.272 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
188. Abilene Christian - Southland, Avg RPI - 194.917 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
189. Toledo - Mid-American, Avg RPI - 195.139 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
190. Fairfield - Metro Atlantic, Avg RPI - 195.58 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
191. Utah Valley - WAC, Avg RPI - 196.626 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
192. Boston College - ACC, Avg RPI - 197 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
193. Air Force - Mountain West, Avg RPI - 197.283 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
194. Fordham - Atlantic 10, Avg RPI - 197.968 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
195. Cincinnati - American Athletic, Avg RPI - 198.036 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
196. IUPUI - Horizon, Avg RPI - 199.278 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
197. Buffalo - Mid-American, Avg RPI - 199.303 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
198. Northern Arizona - Big Sky, Avg RPI - 199.538 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
199. DePaul - Big East, Avg RPI - 199.979 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%
200. Appalachian State - Sun Belt, Avg RPI - 200.122 (0) T4 - 0.0% T16 - 0% T45 - 0%

[hammer]

Sept 11, 2017 18:17:27 GMT -5 n00b said:

Three Patriot League teams in the top 100.

Impressive.

As impressive as the AAC?

[beba]

Nothing is that impressive. How insulting you are!

[Fight On!]

blue, can you explain something to me:
19. USC - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 25.271 (0) T4 - 1.0% T16 - 34.0% T45 - 88.1%
20. UCLA - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 25.732 (1) T4 - 2.4% T16 - 32.6% T45 - 88.9%

How does it work out that USC has a higher change of getting to the sweet 16 than ucla but a lower chance of getting to the final four?

Thanks for educating me Appreciate all you do to produce these analyses.

[wiscvball]

Sept 12, 2017 20:10:08 GMT -5 Fight On! said:

blue, can you explain something to me:
19. USC - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 25.271 (0) T4 - 1.0% T16 - 34.0% T45 - 88.1%
20. UCLA - Pac 12, Avg RPI - 25.732 (1) T4 - 2.4% T16 - 32.6% T45 - 88.9%

How does it work out that USC has a higher change of getting to the sweet 16 than ucla but a lower chance of getting to the final four?

Thanks for educating me Appreciate all you do to produce these analyses.

I'm sure BP will give a better explanation rooted in data, but a few quick thoughts:

* the %'s are not the chances of making a round, they are the % of times the team's final RPI ended up in that range given the 1000 different permutations of match outcomes.
* the reason UCLA has a higher probability to get to Top 4 RPI is probably driven by their strength of schedule (in the first post - UCLA is at 5, USC is at 23). UCLA has more upside potential given future match outcomes.