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Post by trollhunter on Oct 18, 2017 15:30:33 GMT -5
Yes, this is the next (and usually deepest) layer that committee looks at for teams, especially for seeds and bubbles. Not just the Nitty Gritty sheet. For all those that bash the committee or RPI, there is a lot of other info the committee considers.
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Post by TCMullet on Oct 19, 2017 16:07:13 GMT -5
Here is the RPI Futures Probabilities. 1. Penn State - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 3.357 (246) T4 - 72% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 1 2. Kentucky - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 3.468 (230) T4 - 68% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 1 3. Florida - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 3.716 (214) T4 - 64% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 1 ... 41. Missouri - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 41.799 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 69% T90 - 1 42. Arkansas - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 42.239 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 68% T90 - 1 43. Florida State - ACC, Avg RPI Rank - 42.38 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 66% T90 - 1 44. Missouri State - Missouri Valley, Avg RPI Rank - 43.81 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 63% T90 - 1 45. VCU - Atlantic 10, Avg RPI Rank - 44.45 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 59% T90 - 1 46. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley, Avg RPI Rank - 44.824 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 57% T90 - 1 47. Maryland - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 47.562 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - <1% T45 - 41% T90 - 1 48. Hawaii - Big West, Avg RPI Rank - 48.508 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 41% T90 - 1 49. Dayton - Atlantic 10, Avg RPI Rank - 49.947 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 30% T90 - 1 Thank you for working to derive these (the whole list) of probabilities. All along, I've been taking your RPI Futures list AS the probability, just not with that term. From what I gather, "T45" means the "top 45 teams at the end", right? I find it interesting that MD is only 2 slots down from VCU in the Futures list. Yet their T45 probability is WAY lower (41) than VCU's (59). I'm disappointed that "the great" HI (Hawaii - I use postal abbreviations a lot) is down to 48 and T45 = only 41. And Dayton is worse, T45 = 30. So I supposed I should drop the latter and seriously consider dropping HI, too. (But I just can't.) I think I need to look at both RPI Futures rank AND your T45 probabilities each week. Again, THANKS for all of this, Bluepenguin! You've added some sane and quantifiable rationality to what has been essentially random guessing (by comparison). (At least for me.)
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 19, 2017 17:01:15 GMT -5
Here is the RPI Futures Probabilities. 1. Penn State - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 3.357 (246) T4 - 72% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 1 2. Kentucky - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 3.468 (230) T4 - 68% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 1 3. Florida - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 3.716 (214) T4 - 64% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 1 ... 41. Missouri - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 41.799 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 69% T90 - 1 42. Arkansas - SEC, Avg RPI Rank - 42.239 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 68% T90 - 1 43. Florida State - ACC, Avg RPI Rank - 42.38 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 66% T90 - 1 44. Missouri State - Missouri Valley, Avg RPI Rank - 43.81 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 63% T90 - 1 45. VCU - Atlantic 10, Avg RPI Rank - 44.45 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 59% T90 - 1 46. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley, Avg RPI Rank - 44.824 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 57% T90 - 1 47. Maryland - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 47.562 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - <1% T45 - 41% T90 - 1 48. Hawaii - Big West, Avg RPI Rank - 48.508 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 41% T90 - 1 49. Dayton - Atlantic 10, Avg RPI Rank - 49.947 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 30% T90 - 1 Thank you for working to derive these (the whole list) of probabilities. All along, I've been taking your RPI Futures list AS the probability, just not with that term. From what I gather, "T45" means the "top 45 teams at the end", right? I find it interesting that MD is only 2 slots down from VCU in the Futures list. Yet their T45 probability is WAY lower (41) than VCU's (59). I'm disappointed that "the great" HI (Hawaii - I use postal abbreviations a lot) is down to 48 and T45 = only 41. And Dayton is worse, T45 = 30. So I supposed I should drop the latter and seriously consider dropping HI, too. (But I just can't.) I think I need to look at both RPI Futures rank AND your T45 probabilities each week. Again, THANKS for all of this, Bluepenguin! You've added some sane and quantifiable rationality to what has been essentially random guessing (by comparison). (At least for me.) T45 does mean end the season in the top 45.
Hawaii and Maryland have more variability in the outcomes of remaining games than VCU, which in part explains the wide variance in probability of being in the top 45.
No reason to drop either Hawaii or Maryland - if either makes the tournament (particularly HI) they stand a decent chance of winning their 1st match in the tournament compared to VCU and Dayton who would more likely be facing the seeded team. Also, it appears unlikely that either VCU or Dayton would make the tournament as an at large and will most likely need to win the A-10 tournament.
Here is some more information for these 3 teams and what the RPI probabilities would be for specific conference win totals.
48. Hawaii - Big West, Avg RPI Rank - 48.508 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 41% 15W (4%), Avg Rank - 34.0; 14W (27%), Avg Rank - 40.3; 45th or better (85%) 13W (39%), Avg Rank - 47.9; 45th or better (31%) 12W (22%), Avg Rank - 55.4; 45th or better (4%) 11W (7%), RPI Rank - 65.5;
45. VCU - Atlantic 10, Avg RPI Rank - 44.45 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 59% 14W (23%), Avg Rank - 36.7; 45th or better (99%) 13W (41%), Avg Rank - 42.6; 45th or better (75%) 12W (28%), Avg Rank - 49.1; 45th or better (15%) 11W (7%), Avg Rank - 57.1;
47. Maryland - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 47.562 (0) T4 - 0% T16 - <1% T45 - 41% 8W (9%), Avg Rank - 34.9; 7W (24%), Avg Rank - 41.2; 45th or better (90%) 6W (32%), Avg Rank - 47.9; 45th or better (21%) 5W (22%), Avg Rank - 54.6; 4W (8%), Avg Rank - 62.7; Below .500 overall record
And then if you look at the possible outcomes out of 1000 simulations you can see increased variability for Hawaii and Maryland.
VCU between 28th and 78th Maryland between 16th and 81st Hawaii between 26th and 92nd
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Post by TCMullet on Oct 19, 2017 17:53:32 GMT -5
Hawaii and Maryland have more variability in the outcomes of remaining games than VCU, which in part explains the wide variance in probability of being in the top 45.
No reason to drop either Hawaii or Maryland - if either makes the tournament (particularly HI) they stand a decent chance of winning their 1st match in the tournament compared to VCU and Dayton who would more likely be facing the seeded team. Also, it appears unlikely that either VCU or Dayton would make the tournament as an at large and will most likely need to win the A-10 tournament. For MD, it wasn't a matter of dropping as I was only lately thinking of adding them. But yes, thanks for the encouraging thoughts about HI. Yes, I was not going to drop HI. They've been such a strong team in the past. (Maybe the loss of Dave S. is a factor in lower performance lately.) Just since my last post, I decided to add VCU. But I'll be disappointed if Dayton doesn't do better as I grew to like them after discovering them late last year. I'm sad about TCU, but I guess I have to drop. Worse than them is Boise St and Kansas St. What do you think are the odds (am looking for your subjective thoughts, not an actual "odds" figure necessarily) of any of those three getting back "up there"? I particularly don't like dropping KsSt as their rivalry with KS is often exciting.
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Post by nakedcrayon on Oct 19, 2017 19:05:29 GMT -5
I hope VCU has gotten tons better than early season not just your normal steady improvement. They were solid but no where near an NCAA at large.
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Post by owlsem on Oct 20, 2017 14:55:53 GMT -5
I have felt since the start of the conference season that Pablo overvalues Notre Dame. I think ND loses 4 of the next 5 but I am being optimistic. This should drop them into alignment with reality. When Pablo gets ND valuation correct the predictions for conference standings will make more sense in the ACC.
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 20, 2017 15:17:04 GMT -5
I have felt since the start of the conference season that Pablo overvalues Notre Dame. I think ND loses 4 of the next 5 but I am being optimistic. This should drop them into alignment with reality. When Pablo gets ND valuation correct the predictions for conference standings will make more sense in the ACC. Yes, but Pablo was very quick to see the value of Oregon State. Generally our historical perceptions/biases are slow to seeing 'real' improvement. Seemed like it took years before some believed how good Wisconsin was/is.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 22, 2017 15:22:55 GMT -5
I have felt since the start of the conference season that Pablo overvalues Notre Dame. I think ND loses 4 of the next 5 but I am being optimistic. This should drop them into alignment with reality. When Pablo gets ND valuation correct the predictions for conference standings will make more sense in the ACC. Well, ND is 2-0 so far of those next 5, winning 2 road matches Pablo had them favored in.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 22, 2017 15:29:41 GMT -5
The ACC's 7 NCAA contender's all split this week. They're finding a way to stick together and remain top 50, and use each other as significant wins. No ACC teams may be top 25, but they may have 7 top 50.
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Post by owlsem on Oct 22, 2017 16:09:48 GMT -5
I have felt since the start of the conference season that Pablo overvalues Notre Dame. I think ND loses 4 of the next 5 but I am being optimistic. This should drop them into alignment with reality. When Pablo gets ND valuation correct the predictions for conference standings will make more sense in the ACC. Well, ND is 2-0 so far of those next 5, winning 2 road matches Pablo had them favored in. i was wrong. No excuses from me or trying to explain how I got something else right. On this point I was wrong. Good for Notre Dame.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 22, 2017 17:15:15 GMT -5
The ACC's 7 NCAA contender's all split this week. They're finding a way to stick together and remain top 50, and use each other as significant wins. No ACC teams may be top 25, but they may have 7 top 50. Or end up with 3 outside the top 50. They are riding a delicate RPI balance. I will be interested to see the probability of 7 inside the top 50 after this week.
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 22, 2017 17:50:53 GMT -5
Why does RPI Futures dislike Florida State and Miami? Below is the current RPI (Figstats) vs. current RPI Futures:
33. Florida State - 46. 37. Miami - 51. 38. Notre Dame - 32. 40. NC State - 37. 47. North Carolina - 54.
Notre Dame and NC State are behind FSU and Miami in the current RPI, but RPI Futures likes them by a fairly wide margin. This is mostly Pablo driven and the remaining schedules. Below is the projected change in winning % for these 5 teams:
Florida State -.027 Miami -038 NC State .014 Notre Dame .003 North Carolina .005
Pablo sees NC State and Notre Dame as slightly improving their w/l% while FSU and Miami seeing their w/l% getting worse. UNC and NC State visiting the Florida schools this coming week will be interesting.
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Post by slxpress on Oct 22, 2017 17:58:20 GMT -5
Well, ND is 2-0 so far of those next 5, winning 2 road matches Pablo had them favored in. i was wrong. No excuses from me or trying to explain how I got something else right. On this point I was wrong. Good for Notre Dame. I don't have an opinion either way, but I appreciate someone with that honest of a statement.
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Post by brybast on Oct 22, 2017 18:37:01 GMT -5
I hope VCU has gotten tons better than early season not just your normal steady improvement. They were solid but no where near an NCAA at large. It's hard to say just how much VCU has improved since early season. They've raced through their A-10 schedule so far without dropping a set in 9 matches. However the A-10 is *extremely* weak outside of VCU and Dayton. I don't have the Pablo rankings in front of me but it's ugly. VCU hosts Dayton (also undefeated in A-10 so far) next Sunday in a match that will surely be for top seed in the A-10 tourney. Another sign of the A-10's weakness: The 3rd-place team is Saint Louis at 6-2, with both losses coming to Dayton. But the Billikens' overall record is 9-12, including losses to the likes of UTRGV, Illinois State, ETSU, and DePaul.
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Post by TCMullet on Oct 23, 2017 9:19:59 GMT -5
I'm sad about TCU, but I guess I have to drop. Worse than them is Boise St and Kansas St. What do you think are the odds (am looking for your subjective thoughts, not an actual "odds" figure necessarily) of any of those three getting back "up there"? I particularly don't like dropping KsSt as their rivalry with KS is often exciting. Bluepenquin, I guess you didn't notice that I had asked you a question. Do you think it's possible for any of those three to get back into the running? (Making a top45 or so position.) Perhaps related, has any team in past years ever been this low at this time in the season (week 8) and roared back significantly toward the top?
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