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Post by pavsec5row10 on Oct 23, 2017 10:34:44 GMT -5
I'm sad about TCU, but I guess I have to drop. Worse than them is Boise St and Kansas St. What do you think are the odds (am looking for your subjective thoughts, not an actual "odds" figure necessarily) of any of those three getting back "up there"? I particularly don't like dropping KsSt as their rivalry with KS is often exciting. Bluepenquin, I guess you didn't notice that I had asked you a question. Do you think it's possible for any of those three to get back into the running? (Making a top45 or so position.) Perhaps related, has any team in past years ever been this low at this time in the season (week 8) and roared back significantly toward the top? I know you asked Bluepenguin, but I would imagine it would take a very improbable sweep by TCU or Kansas St of Texas, Kansas, ISU or Baylor in their remaining games to move up enough. Boise State doesn't have any high end opponents that would boost their RPI by .05 to get in range.
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Post by cyclonepower on Oct 23, 2017 10:56:39 GMT -5
I'm sad about TCU, but I guess I have to drop. Worse than them is Boise St and Kansas St. What do you think are the odds (am looking for your subjective thoughts, not an actual "odds" figure necessarily) of any of those three getting back "up there"? I particularly don't like dropping KsSt as their rivalry with KS is often exciting. Bluepenquin, I guess you didn't notice that I had asked you a question. Do you think it's possible for any of those three to get back into the running? (Making a top45 or so position.) Perhaps related, has any team in past years ever been this low at this time in the season (week 8) and roared back significantly toward the top? I'll answer about TCU and K-State ... no. From a volleyball perspective, TCU is a disaster right now, if they don't beat West Virginia on Thursday, I don't know if they are going to win another match this season. I know technically, the numbers kind of line up for them if they won matches, but they are just a bad team. As for K-State, they are probably in too much of an RPI hole that even a win over Texas won't save them. K-State has to be kicking themselves over dropping that home match against KU in five, their season could have been so much different with a W there!
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Post by TCMullet on Oct 23, 2017 11:06:54 GMT -5
Boise State doesn't have any high end opponents that would boost their RPI by .05 to get in range. Are you saying that even if Boise St won every set from now on, their RPI could not get high enough to qualify for the tournament? But even if not, if they won their conference, THEN they could get in, right? (So there's 2 questions there.)
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 23, 2017 11:31:02 GMT -5
Boise State doesn't have any high end opponents that would boost their RPI by .05 to get in range. Are you saying that even if Boise St won every set from now on, their RPI could not get high enough to qualify for the tournament? But even if not, if they won their conference, THEN they could get in, right? (So there's 2 questions there.) Boise State is done. They will not be an at large and I don't see how they win conference over Colorado State (there is no conference tournament). They max out ~ 55 in RPI if they win the rest of their matches - which isn't probable to begin with.
I think you put a fork in Kansas State and TCU as mentioned by others. Mathematically, either *could* get into an at large situation given the quality of teams left to play, but that seems highly unlikely. Cal still has a chance based on the schedule they have left, but no one is seeing that happening either.
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Post by FreeBall on Oct 23, 2017 11:31:26 GMT -5
Boise State doesn't have any high end opponents that would boost their RPI by .05 to get in range. Are you saying that even if Boise St won every set from now on, their RPI could not get high enough to qualify for the tournament? But even if not, if they won their conference, THEN they could get in, right? (So there's 2 questions there.) Boise State trails Colorado State by five games in the Mountain West standings. Even if they won all of their remaining conference matches, what are the odds of them overcoming that deficit to claim the automatic NCAA tournament berth? I'm thinking the chance of that happening are nearly nonexistent.
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Post by TCMullet on Oct 23, 2017 11:39:54 GMT -5
I still hope Bluepenguin and/or others will respond to this question: Has any team in past years ever been this low at this time in the season (week 8) and roared back significantly toward the top? My guess is that if any of you say yes, you'll say that it will be because of a very unusual circumstance, such as, player gets injured for rest of season, and the sub brought in turned into a fireball, showing that she was grossly underrated by her coach up through that point.
I am reminded of last year's Washington falling apart in the tournament. I don't remember ever learning the reason(s), but I remember thinking "they musta been out getting drunk the night before, while their opponents were resting up and/or conditioning". I realize you'd have to have a lot of "falling apart" opponents, so for this question, I suspect the only possibility is the one I suggested (or anticipate one of you might suggest), that a sleeper gets awakened.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 23, 2017 12:14:29 GMT -5
I am reminded of last year's Washington falling apart in the tournament. I don't remember ever learning the reason(s), but I remember thinking "they musta been out getting drunk the night before, while their opponents were resting up and/or conditioning". I realize you'd have to have a lot of "falling apart" opponents, so for this question, I suspect the only possibility is the one I suggested (or anticipate one of you might suggest), that a sleeper gets awakened. This is getting silly. They lost to Nebraska, in Nebraska, in the Elite 8, when Nebraska was the number 1 seed. Yes, they didn't look good doing it, but it's not like they lost in the second round at home. Teams have done that too, and often not been as pilloried over it as Washington was last year.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 23, 2017 12:32:38 GMT -5
I still hope Bluepenguin and/or others will respond to this question: Has any team in past years ever been this low at this time in the season (week 8) and roared back significantly toward the top? My guess is that if any of you say yes, you'll say that it will be because of a very unusual circumstance, such as, player gets injured for rest of season, and the sub brought in turned into a fireball, showing that she was grossly underrated by her coach up through that point. I am reminded of last year's Washington falling apart in the tournament. I don't remember ever learning the reason(s), but I remember thinking "they musta been out getting drunk the night before, while their opponents were resting up and/or conditioning". I realize you'd have to have a lot of "falling apart" opponents, so for this question, I suspect the only possibility is the one I suggested (or anticipate one of you might suggest), that a sleeper gets awakened. I don't have a long enough history with the sport to answer if ever.
My speculation - it is reasonably possible if one of 2 conditions are met:
1) A team that is very high in Pablo, but low in RPI. This has its limits because if they are low enough in RPI, they will not make the tournament unless it is through a conference tournament. I can think of St. Mary's a couple years ago that was > 50 in RPI, but #17 in Pablo. They were certainly a team that could have done damage in the tournament if they had made it. I can see this most likely happening with a B1G/PAC team that gets 'hot' and wins the last 3 or 4 weeks and by virtue of their schedule are able to make a big enough RPI move to make the tournament and be good enough to do well in the tournament. Or a WCC or Big West team where Pablo has the team much better than RPI (LMU or UCI Irvine).
2) A team that is wildly talented, but went through enough injuries to greatly damage their RPI. A team like North Carolina comes to mind this year. There may be speculation over how talented, but it is easy to see where they have enough talent and if everyone gets healthy in time they could win some games in the tournament despite a fairly bad current RPI.
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Post by trollhunter on Oct 23, 2017 13:23:46 GMT -5
I still hope Bluepenguin and/or others will respond to this question: Has any team in past years ever been this low at this time in the season (week 8) and roared back significantly toward the top? My guess is that if any of you say yes, you'll say that it will be because of a very unusual circumstance, such as, player gets injured for rest of season, and the sub brought in turned into a fireball, showing that she was grossly underrated by her coach up through that point. I am reminded of last year's Washington falling apart in the tournament. I don't remember ever learning the reason(s), but I remember thinking "they musta been out getting drunk the night before, while their opponents were resting up and/or conditioning". I realize you'd have to have a lot of "falling apart" opponents, so for this question, I suspect the only possibility is the one I suggested (or anticipate one of you might suggest), that a sleeper gets awakened. I don't have a long enough history with the sport to answer if ever.
My speculation - it is reasonably possible if one of 2 conditions are met:
1) A team that is very high in Pablo, but low in RPI. This has its limits because if they are low enough in RPI, they will not make the tournament unless it is through a conference tournament. I can think of St. Mary's a couple years ago that was > 50 in RPI, but #17 in Pablo. They were certainly a team that could have done damage in the tournament if they had made it. I can see this most likely happening with a B1G/PAC team that gets 'hot' and wins the last 3 or 4 weeks and by virtue of their schedule are able to make a big enough RPI move to make the tournament and be good enough to do well in the tournament. Or a WCC or Big West team where Pablo has the team much better than RPI (LMU or UCI Irvine).
2) A team that is wildly talented, but went through enough injuries to greatly damage their RPI. A team like North Carolina comes to mind this year. There may be speculation over how talented, but it is easy to see where they have enough talent and if everyone gets healthy in time they could win some games in the tournament despite a fairly bad current RPI.
Leave Blue alone so he can work on RPI Futures Week 9
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Post by MTC on Oct 31, 2017 11:46:44 GMT -5
That's definitely an intangible. Intangible it may be, but it's quite fungible. Not only that but you can monetize Nebraska as well. Ka-ching.
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Post by JT on Oct 31, 2017 17:20:37 GMT -5
I still hope Bluepenguin and/or others will respond to this question: Has any team in past years ever been this low at this time in the season (week 8) and roared back significantly toward the top? My guess is that if any of you say yes, you'll say that it will be because of a very unusual circumstance, such as, player gets injured for rest of season, and the sub brought in turned into a fireball, showing that she was grossly underrated by her coach up through that point. I am reminded of last year's Washington falling apart in the tournament. I don't remember ever learning the reason(s), but I remember thinking "they musta been out getting drunk the night before, while their opponents were resting up and/or conditioning". I realize you'd have to have a lot of "falling apart" opponents, so for this question, I suspect the only possibility is the one I suggested (or anticipate one of you might suggest), that a sleeper gets awakened. Not sure exactly what the timing was, and I don't know what the RPI looked like, but Minnesota in 2003 certainly had a bathtub curve in their performance/expectations. They started the season AVCA ranked #6 if I remember right, went 0-3 in Hawaii's tournament and 1-2 in Florida's (we beat Xavier I believe), struggled in our home tournament, and then (apparently) righted the ship against UNI in a border battle challenge. We then proceeded to open up the BigTen season (only 11 teams at the time) by losing on the road to Purdue and Indiana. Not quite sure when the new attitude took hold (I have all the programs at home... And might remember to check) but wwe clawed our way back to a 13 or 14 seed, and then won an upset at the Regionals to go to the Final Four (losing to USC). The fact that we were seeded implies that we didn't crash too terribly in the RPI, but like I said, I'm not sure. We certainly ended on a high note (even losing to USC couldn't spoil the success).
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