Pablo Ultimate Rankings
Nov 10, 2017 16:00:27 GMT -5
SaltNPepper, coloradokidd, and 3 more like this
Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 10, 2017 16:00:27 GMT -5
Below are the current version of the Pablo Ultimate Rankings (PUR). Recall that the goal of PUR is to create a ranking that does the best job possible of reflecting winners of matches that have already been played. The table shows the team's rating, and then range, which is the range of ratings the team could have and still give the same overall quality of the ranking (in terms of overall number of matches correctly reflected). Within that context, team ratings are optimized by using their regular Pablo ratings, but the overriding criteria is the maximum number of winners.
The way I go about optimizing things is very primitive and clunky, and I don't claim that this is the absolutely best solution to the problem, but it's pretty close. I honestly DO encourage anyone interested to try to come up with something to beat this. I hope you are successful! The rankings below correctly reflect the winners of 87.8% of the matches that have been played.
HCA 168
The way I go about optimizing things is very primitive and clunky, and I don't claim that this is the absolutely best solution to the problem, but it's pretty close. I honestly DO encourage anyone interested to try to come up with something to beat this. I hope you are successful! The rankings below correctly reflect the winners of 87.8% of the matches that have been played.
HCA 168
Rank | Team | Rating | Range |
1 | Nebraska | 7949 | 7949 - 7949 |
2 | Florida | 7783 | 7783 - 8283 |
3 | Penn State | 7778 | 7398 - 7778 |
4 | Minnesota | 7433 | 7338 - 7933 |
5 | Stanford | 7395 | 7230 - 7395 |
6 | Kentucky | 7339 | 7069 - 7614 |
7 | Washington | 7229 | 7229 - 7229 |
8 | Texas | 7170 | 6965 - 7265 |
9 | Northern Iowa | 7065 | 7065 - 7335 |
10 | USC | 7062 | 7062 - 7062 |
11 | Colorado | 6984 | 6984 - 6984 |
12 | Baylor | 6964 | 6964 - 7334 |
13 | BYU | 6963 | 6963 - 6963 |
14 | Michigan State | 6882 | 6872 - 7382 |
15 | Purdue | 6850 | 6850 - 6940 |
16 | UCLA | 6816 | 6816 - 6891 |
17 | Oregon | 6811 | 6811 - 6811 |
18 | San Diego | 6794 | 6624 - 6794 |
19 | Kansas | 6777 | 6687 - 6902 |
20 | Iowa State | 6736 | 6651 - 6796 |
21 | Wisconsin | 6702 | 6332 - 6712 |
22 | Illinois | 6682 | 6657 - 6682 |
23 | Creighton | 6645 | 6560 - 6645 |
24 | Utah | 6639 | 6639 - 6639 |
25 | Oregon State | 6638 | 6638 - 6638 |
26 | Missouri | 6622 | 6437 - 6792 |
27 | Pittsburgh | 6558 | 6488 - 6563 |
28 | Colorado State | 6499 | 6109 - 6814 |
29 | LSU | 6498 | 6498 - 6788 |
30 | Louisville | 6487 | 6392 - 6487 |
31 | Cal Poly | 6483 | 6483 - 6978 |
32 | Wichita State | 6478 | 6478 - 6478 |
33 | North Texas | 6475 | 6475 - 6975 |
34 | Washington State | 6466 | 6466 - 6466 |
35 | Western Kentucky | 6396 | 6396 - 6641 |
36 | Marquette | 6344 | 6344 - 6344 |
37 | Arkansas | 6328 | 6328 - 6328 |
38 | Miami-FL | 6319 | 6319 - 6389 |
39 | Missouri State | 6296 | 6276 - 6296 |
40 | Michigan | 6275 | 6275 - 6275 |
41 | Auburn | 6266 | 6266 - 6321 |
42 | NC State | 6263 | 6163 - 6263 |
43 | Temple | 6229 | 6229 - 6299 |
44 | Rice | 6226 | 6226 - 6226 |
45 | Villanova | 6179 | 6179 - 6339 |
46 | Butler | 6171 | 6171 - 6171 |
47 | College of Charleston | 6170 | 6145 - 6170 |
48 | VCU | 6162 | 6162 - 6322 |
49 | Texas A&M | 6158 | 6158 - 6158 |
50 | Maryland | 6135 | 6065 - 6270 |
51 | Iowa | 6111 | 6111 - 6441 |
52 | Ohio State | 6106 | 5971 - 6106 |
53 | SMU | 6058 | 6058 - 6058 |
54 | Dayton | 5996 | 5996 - 6271 |
55 | High Point | 5991 | 5991 - 5991 |
56 | Georgia | 5989 | 5809 - 5989 |
57 | Towson | 5975 | 5975 - 6000 |
58 | Notre Dame | 5973 | 5968 - 6148 |
59 | Alabama | 5972 | 5972 - 5992 |
59 | Cleveland State | 5972 | 5697 - 5972 |
61 | Seton Hall | 5961 | 5961 - 5961 |
62 | UC Irvine | 5958 | 5958 - 5958 |
63 | Austin Peay | 5945 | 5945 - 5990 |
64 | Kennesaw State | 5940 | 5825 - 5940 |
65 | Santa Clara | 5932 | 5932 - 5977 |
66 | Pacific | 5926 | 5926 - 5926 |
67 | St. Johns | 5889 | 5889 - 6009 |
68 | Texas State | 5886 | 5886 - 5886 |
69 | Central Arkansas | 5863 | 5863 - 6363 |
70 | Denver | 5861 | 5526 - 5861 |
71 | Ole Miss | 5824 | 5824 - 5824 |
72 | Loyola Marymount | 5812 | 5812 - 6092 |
73 | Oakland | 5805 | 5805 - 5805 |
74 | Florida Atlantic | 5803 | 5803 - 6228 |
75 | Miami-OH | 5802 | 5677 - 5802 |
76 | Florida State | 5796 | 5726 - 5801 |
77 | Princeton | 5795 | 5795 - 5795 |
78 | Hawaii | 5793 | 5793 - 6173 |
79 | Oklahoma | 5789 | 5719 - 5789 |
80 | Cal | 5788 | 5723 - 5788 |
81 | Wyoming | 5784 | 5759 - 5929 |
82 | Jacksonville | 5775 | 5775 - 5775 |
83 | Pepperdine | 5762 | 5762 - 5762 |
84 | Sacramento State | 5756 | 5686 - 5756 |
85 | Northwestern | 5729 | 5729 - 5934 |
86 | Syracuse | 5726 | 5726 - 5726 |
87 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 5719 | 5719 - 5784 |
88 | Coastal Carolina | 5713 | 5628 - 5713 |
89 | Oral Roberts | 5693 | 5693 - 5693 |
90 | Drake | 5680 | 5680 - 5775 |
91 | Radford | 5662 | 5607 - 5787 |
92 | Arkansas State | 5661 | 5661 - 5716 |
93 | North Carolina | 5642 | 5562 - 5642 |
94 | Bowling Green | 5638 | 5638 - 5638 |
95 | Florida Gulf Coast | 5634 | 5634 - 5634 |
96 | American | 5627 | 5627 - 5687 |
97 | West Virginia | 5624 | 5624 - 5689 |
98 | Arizona | 5622 | 5622 - 5627 |
99 | James Madison | 5612 | 5612 - 5807 |
100 | East Tennessee State | 5606 | 5396 - 5606 |
101 | Tennessee | 5601 | 5271 - 5601 |
102 | Boise State | 5589 | 5589 - 5589 |
103 | San Diego State | 5565 | 5515 - 5640 |
104 | Georgia Tech | 5558 | 5558 - 5723 |
105 | Duke | 5557 | 5547 - 5557 |
106 | TCU | 5549 | 5549 - 5619 |
107 | South Dakota | 5526 | 5526 - 5861 |
108 | Texas Tech | 5524 | 5459 - 5619 |
109 | Navy | 5522 | 5522 - 5637 |
110 | Yale | 5518 | 5393 - 5518 |
110 | Kansas State | 5518 | 5518 - 5558 |
112 | Idaho | 5514 | 5514 - 5514 |
113 | Illinois State | 5512 | 5247 - 5512 |
114 | North Dakota | 5511 | 5511 - 5591 |
115 | IUPUI | 5509 | 5409 - 5509 |
116 | Ball State | 5473 | 5473 - 5498 |
117 | Indiana | 5470 | 5470 - 5895 |
118 | Lipscomb | 5462 | 5457 - 5462 |
119 | Gonzaga | 5447 | 5397 - 5512 |
120 | Hofstra | 5440 | 5440 - 5440 |
121 | Furman | 5439 | 5439 - 5439 |
122 | South Carolina | 5434 | 5434 - 5489 |
123 | Portland State | 5426 | 5426 - 5586 |
124 | Arizona State | 5423 | 5423 - 5423 |
125 | South Alabama | 5389 | 5134 - 5389 |
125 | Wake Forest | 5389 | 5389 - 5389 |
127 | Saint Marys | 5359 | 4859 - 5394 |
128 | Stephen F. Austin | 5355 | 5225 - 5355 |
129 | Penn | 5350 | 5350 - 5350 |
130 | Nevada | 5345 | 5345 - 5395 |
130 | Central Michigan | 5345 | 5345 - 5345 |
132 | San Jose State | 5344 | 5344 - 5344 |
133 | Ohio | 5330 | 5305 - 5335 |
134 | SIUE | 5320 | 5235 - 5320 |
135 | Cincinnati | 5314 | 5314 - 5659 |
136 | Southern Miss | 5302 | 4997 - 5392 |
137 | Wisconsin-Green Bay | 5237 | 5237 - 5337 |
138 | Portland | 5228 | 5193 - 5253 |
139 | Virginia Tech | 5225 | 5225 - 5385 |
140 | Tulane | 5224 | 5224 - 5354 |
141 | Illinois-Chicago | 5203 | 5158 - 5338 |
142 | Houston Baptist | 5191 | 5191 - 5421 |
143 | Air Force | 5172 | 5172 - 5172 |
144 | Buffalo | 5167 | 5167 - 5497 |
145 | New Mexico State | 5165 | 4975 - 5165 |
146 | Utah State | 5159 | 5159 - 5169 |
147 | Northern Colorado | 5158 | 5158 - 5228 |
148 | Murray State | 5154 | 5154 - 5154 |
149 | Xavier | 5143 | 4933 - 5143 |
150 | UCF | 5141 | 4891 - 5141 |
151 | North Dakota State | 5135 | 4995 - 5355 |
152 | New Mexico | 5120 | 5065 - 5150 |
153 | Colgate | 5099 | 5099 - 5099 |
154 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 5078 | 5078 - 5158 |
155 | Saint Louis | 5076 | 4996 - 5076 |
156 | Eastern Illinois | 5065 | 5065 - 5065 |
157 | UC Davis | 5064 | 4944 - 5064 |
158 | Virginia | 5055 | 5010 - 5055 |
159 | Tulsa | 5054 | 4974 - 5054 |
160 | Northeastern | 5049 | 4829 - 5049 |
161 | Providence | 5045 | 5045 - 5100 |
162 | East Carolina | 5043 | 4978 - 5043 |
163 | CSU Bakersfield | 5025 | 4995 - 5155 |
164 | Eastern Kentucky | 5016 | 4991 - 5061 |
165 | Fresno State | 5002 | 5002 - 5002 |
166 | Abilene Christian | 4998 | 4998 - 5183 |
166 | Utah Valley | 4998 | 4998 - 4998 |
168 | Eastern Michigan | 4997 | 4997 - 4997 |
169 | Belmont | 4996 | 4996 - 5061 |
170 | Elon | 4995 | 4995 - 4995 |
171 | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 4992 | 4912 - 4992 |
172 | Northern Arizona | 4990 | 4975 - 4990 |
172 | UT Martin | 4990 | 4990 - 4990 |
174 | Jacksonville State | 4989 | 4989 - 4989 |
175 | Toledo | 4986 | 4986 - 5161 |
176 | UNC Greensboro | 4979 | 4949 - 4979 |
177 | Valparaiso | 4974 | 4969 - 4974 |
178 | Milwaukee | 4972 | 4972 - 5032 |
179 | Fairfield | 4970 | 4905 - 4970 |
180 | Western Michigan | 4962 | 4662 - 4992 |
181 | Northern Kentucky | 4956 | 4956 - 5031 |
182 | Army | 4933 | 4933 - 4968 |
183 | Albany | 4928 | 4788 - 4928 |
184 | Nebraska-Omaha | 4907 | 4827 - 5117 |
185 | Morehead State | 4898 | 4898 - 4988 |
186 | UNCW | 4884 | 4884 - 4984 |
187 | Harvard | 4882 | 4817 - 4907 |
188 | LIU Brooklyn | 4875 | 4850 - 4875 |
189 | Appalachian State | 4842 | 4717 - 4887 |
190 | Alabama State | 4830 | 4830 - 5000 |
191 | Wofford | 4829 | 4814 - 4944 |
191 | Northern Illinois | 4829 | 4799 - 4829 |
193 | Fordham | 4827 | 4827 - 4872 |
194 | Charlotte | 4826 | 4826 - 4826 |
194 | Sam Houston State | 4826 | 4826 - 4826 |
196 | Northwestern State | 4825 | 4825 - 4825 |
197 | Southeast Missouri | 4823 | 4823 - 4823 |
198 | Campbell | 4820 | 4785 - 4820 |
199 | Indiana State | 4816 | 4761 - 4896 |
200 | Marshall | 4814 | 4659 - 4814 |
201 | Chattanooga | 4813 | 4813 - 4943 |
202 | Southern Illinois | 4808 | 4808 - 4948 |
203 | Cornell | 4798 | 4718 - 4798 |
204 | Seattle | 4786 | 4516 - 4826 |
205 | Duquesne | 4784 | 4784 - 4784 |
206 | Evansville | 4781 | 4651 - 4781 |
207 | Samford | 4778 | 4773 - 4808 |
208 | UNLV | 4772 | 4412 - 4777 |
208 | Bryant | 4772 | 4707 - 4782 |
210 | DePaul | 4761 | 4606 - 4761 |
211 | Georgetown | 4743 | 4743 - 4928 |
211 | Columbia | 4743 | 4743 - 4743 |
213 | Boston College | 4733 | 4608 - 4733 |
214 | UT Arlington | 4711 | 4711 - 4711 |
215 | Idaho State | 4708 | 4328 - 4708 |
215 | Robert Morris | 4708 | 4708 - 4848 |
217 | Stony Brook | 4704 | 4624 - 4704 |
218 | Niagara | 4691 | 4686 - 4801 |
219 | Central Connecticut State | 4686 | 4681 - 4686 |
220 | George Washington | 4663 | 4618 - 4738 |
221 | McNeese State | 4656 | 4656 - 4656 |
222 | Texas-San Antonio | 4655 | 4650 - 4655 |
223 | Houston | 4654 | 4454 - 4654 |
224 | UNC Asheville | 4653 | 4653 - 4653 |
224 | Mississippi State | 4653 | 4288 - 4653 |
226 | Wright State | 4647 | 4647 - 4712 |
227 | Dartmouth | 4632 | 4632 - 4712 |
228 | Maryland Eastern Shore | 4622 | 4487 - 4647 |
229 | UConn | 4620 | 4620 - 4645 |
230 | New Hampshire | 4616 | 4606 - 4616 |
231 | UNF | 4587 | 4322 - 4587 |
232 | Liberty | 4586 | 4586 - 4651 |
233 | Binghamton | 4575 | 4540 - 4575 |
234 | Rhode Island | 4571 | 4571 - 4571 |
235 | Clemson | 4570 | 4570 - 4570 |
236 | Arkansas-Little Rock | 4547 | 4547 - 4672 |
237 | La Salle | 4537 | 4492 - 4537 |
238 | Lehigh | 4517 | 4277 - 4512 |
239 | Kent State | 4513 | 4478 - 4813 |
240 | Western Carolina | 4486 | 4486 - 4486 |
241 | Bradley | 4480 | 4480 - 4605 |
242 | Tennessee State | 4477 | 4477 - 4652 |
243 | Fort Wayne | 4476 | 4246 - 4476 |
244 | South Carolina Upstate | 4474 | 4424 - 4474 |
245 | Delaware | 4458 | 4458 - 4568 |
246 | UMBC | 4455 | 4410 - 4455 |
247 | USF | 4452 | 4452 - 4452 |
248 | Bucknell | 4446 | 4371 - 4676 |
249 | Loyola-Chicago | 4437 | 4312 - 4592 |
250 | Georgia Southern | 4423 | 4423 - 4658 |
251 | New Orleans | 4420 | 4420 - 4485 |
252 | Florida International | 4419 | 4324 - 4419 |
253 | Winthrop | 4417 | 4162 - 4417 |
254 | Western Illinois | 4411 | 4311 - 4486 |
255 | Marist | 4410 | 4410 - 4520 |
256 | UMKC | 4346 | 4186 - 4346 |
257 | Montana State | 4323 | 4323 - 4323 |
258 | UCSB | 4322 | 4147 - 4322 |
259 | UAB | 4321 | 4321 - 4321 |
260 | Cal State Northridge | 4315 | 4155 - 4315 |
261 | Memphis | 4281 | 3981 - 4281 |
262 | Mercer | 4257 | 4257 - 4317 |
263 | Troy University | 4253 | 4253 - 4253 |
264 | Davidson | 4237 | 4237 - 4252 |
265 | Grand Canyon | 4180 | 4180 - 4180 |
266 | Montana | 4162 | 4162 - 4327 |
267 | Long Beach State | 4161 | 4161 - 4161 |
268 | Eastern Washington | 4160 | 4160 - 4160 |
269 | Louisiana Tech | 4155 | 4155 - 4245 |
270 | Florida A&M | 4154 | 4154 - 4154 |
271 | San Francisco | 4149 | 4149 - 4149 |
272 | St. Francis-PA | 4131 | 3866 - 4196 |
273 | Bethune-Cookman | 4105 | 3990 - 4175 |
274 | George Mason | 4088 | 4088 - 4368 |
275 | Presbyterian | 4085 | 3865 - 4085 |
276 | Georgia State | 4084 | 4084 - 4084 |
276 | Rutgers | 4084 | 4084 - 4084 |
278 | Middle Tennessee | 4081 | 3991 - 4081 |
279 | William & Mary | 4065 | 3565 - 4065 |
280 | Youngstown State | 4064 | 3959 - 4149 |
281 | Rider | 4034 | 4034 - 4194 |
282 | Sacred Heart | 4030 | 4030 - 4030 |
283 | Iona | 4029 | 3989 - 4029 |
284 | Loyola University Maryland | 4026 | 4026 - 4236 |
285 | Chicago State | 4013 | 4013 - 4158 |
286 | Southern Utah | 4012 | 4012 - 4012 |
287 | Howard | 4011 | 3936 - 4011 |
288 | Texas Southern | 4001 | 4001 - 4001 |
289 | Incarnate Word | 3999 | 3804 - 3999 |
290 | Weber State | 3992 | 3992 - 3992 |
290 | UC Riverside | 3992 | 3847 - 3992 |
292 | UMass-Lowell | 3991 | 3991 - 4196 |
292 | Charleston Southern | 3991 | 3991 - 4081 |
294 | Alabama A&M | 3987 | 3837 - 3987 |
295 | NJIT | 3986 | 3861 - 3986 |
296 | Louisiana-Monroe | 3983 | 3693 - 3983 |
296 | UTEP | 3983 | 3918 - 3983 |
298 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 3976 | 3836 - 3996 |
299 | Stetson | 3968 | 3823 - 4153 |
300 | South Dakota State | 3898 | 3398 - 4178 |
301 | Canisius | 3863 | 3863 - 3863 |
302 | Akron | 3854 | 3609 - 3854 |
303 | Cal State Fullerton | 3845 | 3825 - 3845 |
304 | Southern | 3833 | 3833 - 3983 |
305 | Hartford | 3823 | 3823 - 4028 |
306 | Brown | 3820 | 3725 - 3820 |
307 | Siena | 3789 | 3699 - 3809 |
308 | Tennessee Tech | 3772 | 3692 - 4017 |
309 | Hampton | 3768 | 3768 - 3823 |
310 | North Carolina A&T | 3764 | 3614 - 3689 |
311 | Morgan State | 3743 | 3523 - 3838 |
312 | Gardner-Webb | 3689 | 3694 - 3819 |
313 | The Citadel | 3688 | 3378 - 3688 |
314 | Quinnipiac | 3643 | 3623 - 3643 |
315 | Lamar | 3635 | 3635 - 3830 |
316 | Grambling State | 3612 | 3527 - 3612 |
317 | St. Francis-Brooklyn | 3562 | 3557 - 3647 |
318 | Holy Cross | 3558 | 3313 - 3553 |
319 | Prairie View A&M | 3513 | 3448 - 3608 |
320 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 3479 | 3479 - 3599 |
321 | Southeastern Louisiana | 3464 | 3464 - 3464 |
322 | Jackson State | 3462 | 3402 - 3462 |
323 | Lafayette | 3433 | 3388 - 3638 |
324 | North Carolina Central | 3390 | 3095 - 3520 |
325 | Nicholls State | 3291 | 3231 - 3291 |
326 | Mississippi Valley State | 3235 | 3190 - 3290 |
327 | Delaware State | 3151 | 3151 - 3521 |
328 | Manhattan College | 3016 | 2831 - 3471 |
329 | Coppin State | 2981 | 2731 - 2981 |
330 | Savannah State | 2941 | 2901 - 3206 |
331 | South Carolina State | 2746 | 2731 - 2756 |
332 | Saint Peters | 2660 | 2160 - 2845 |
333 | Alcorn State | 2610 | 2105 - 2850 |
334 | Norfolk State | 2574 | 2059 - 2559 |