Pablo Ultimate Rankings

[Millennium]

Nov 15, 2017 7:45:18 GMT -5 The Bofa on the Sofa said:

Nov 15, 2017 6:13:51 GMT -5 Millennium said:

What does this HCA 168 stand for?

Home court advantage

Thanks.
What about the 168 reference?

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Nov 15, 2017 12:45:50 GMT -5 Millennium said:

Nov 15, 2017 7:45:18 GMT -5 The Bofa on the Sofa said:

Home court advantage

Thanks.
What about the 168 reference?

The home court advantage is 168 points. So teams at home get a boost of 168 in their rating.

[newbeach]

Nov 15, 2017 8:36:44 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

Hawaii at 78? !

Seriously?

And UC Irvine ahead of them at 62? Granted I know nothing about this but this seems whack? Hawaii had a much tougher pre-season had many close 5 setters with ranked teams, Beat Baylor, went 5 with Poly twice, beat UC Irvine...but again, I don't have a clue about this stuff.

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Nov 15, 2017 13:09:23 GMT -5 newbeach said:

Nov 15, 2017 8:36:44 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

Hawaii at 78? !

Seriously?

And UC Irvine ahead of them at 62? Granted I know nothing about this but this seems whack? Hawaii had a much tougher pre-season had many close 5 setters with ranked teams, Beat Baylor, went 5 with Poly twice, beat UC Irvine...but again, I don't have a clue about this stuff.

"Close 5 setters" mean little in this. If they lost, then that's what matters.

[n00b]

Nov 15, 2017 13:09:23 GMT -5 newbeach said:

Nov 15, 2017 8:36:44 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

Hawaii at 78? !

Seriously?

And UC Irvine ahead of them at 62? Granted I know nothing about this but this seems whack? Hawaii had a much tougher pre-season had many close 5 setters with ranked teams, went 5 with Poly twice, beat UC Irvine...but again, I don't have a clue about this stuff.

Essentially, the point of these rankings is to not care about close losses. Hawaii's win over UCI was at home so it is still counted as a correct result in this system (the difference between the teams is less than the home court advantage).

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

This week's update. Getting tougher, the best I can get is 87.3% correct, so a difference of about 14 matches compared to last week. But I can't get it to go higher than that.


HCA 167

Rank	Team	Rating	Range
1	Nebraska	7659	7659 - 7659
2	Florida	7493	7493 - 7993
3	Penn State	7487	7322 - 7487
4	Stanford	7322	7287 - 7487
5	Minnesota	7248	7248 - 7748
6	Washington	7116	6891 - 7116
7	Texas	7080	6835 - 7080
8	Colorado	6952	6952 - 7117
9	USC	6951	6951 - 7116
10	Baylor	6895	6895 - 7245
11	BYU	6890	6890 - 6890
12	Michigan State	6818	6633 - 7318
13	Kentucky	6804	6559 - 6804
14	Cal Poly	6751	6496 - 6751
15	Utah	6722	6722 - 6722
16	Purdue	6709	6659 - 6804
17	Iowa State	6665	6665 - 6725
18	Creighton	6658	6638 - 6658
19	Kansas	6641	6641 - 6726
20	Oregon State	6601	6556 - 6601
21	Oregon	6589	6589 - 6719
22	Pittsburgh	6565	6565 - 6655
23	Louisville	6560	6400 - 6560
24	UCLA	6553	6553 - 6553
24	San Diego	6553	6308 - 6553
26	Wichita State	6493	6493 - 6493
27	Missouri State	6482	6482 - 6637
28	Wisconsin	6462	6397 - 6647
29	North Texas	6434	6434 - 6934
30	Miami-FL	6396	6396 - 6396
31	Illinois	6325	6175 - 6325
32	NC State	6313	6093 - 6313
33	Northern Iowa	6309	6309 - 6314
34	Missouri	6305	6065 - 6305
35	Marquette	6260	6220 - 6260
36	Colorado State	6259	6094 - 6759
37	LSU	6210	6210 - 6470
38	Michigan	6160	6160 - 6170
39	Western Kentucky	6138	6138 - 6323
40	Denver	6104	6104 - 6604
41	Notre Dame	6095	6095 - 6130
41	Villanova	6095	6095 - 6130
43	VCU	6067	6067 - 6092
44	Santa Clara	6054	6029 - 6189
45	Hawaii	6051	5771 - 6091
46	Arkansas	6043	5913 - 6043
47	Pacific	6025	5890 - 6025
48	Iowa	6007	5997 - 6157
49	Maryland	5972	5837 - 6132
50	Ohio State	5968	5933 - 5968
51	Butler	5963	5933 - 6088
52	UC Irvine	5937	5937 - 6217
53	Washington State	5935	5865 - 5935
54	College of Charleston	5933	5818 - 5933
55	Florida State	5923	5713 - 5923
56	Temple	5911	5911 - 6136
57	Dayton	5899	5899 - 6134
57	High Point	5899	5899 - 5899
59	Georgia	5897	5877 - 5897
60	Auburn	5880	5880 - 6040
61	San Diego State	5863	5863 - 6268
62	Loyola Marymount	5861	5861 - 5886
63	Pepperdine	5859	5859 - 5884
63	Gonzaga	5859	5859 - 5859
65	Kennesaw State	5827	5732 - 5937
66	Wyoming	5786	5666 - 6026
67	St. Johns	5776	5776 - 5826
68	Texas State	5773	5773 - 5773
69	Cal	5768	5768 - 5768
70	Oklahoma	5750	5750 - 5750
71	SMU	5743	5648 - 5743
72	Miami-OH	5727	5582 - 5727
73	Arizona	5694	5604 - 5764
74	Austin Peay	5675	5675 - 5785
75	Yale	5667	5667 - 6042
76	Northwestern	5665	5660 - 5800
77	Seton Hall	5659	5659 - 5659
78	Syracuse	5655	5655 - 5655
79	North Carolina	5654	5489 - 5654
80	Towson	5647	5647 - 5762
81	Sacramento State	5638	5603 - 5638
82	Ole Miss	5623	5618 - 5648
83	Alabama	5611	5611 - 5726
84	West Virginia	5610	5585 - 5610
85	UCF	5608	5608 - 5663
85	Florida Atlantic	5608	5608 - 5608
87	Cleveland State	5607	5472 - 5607
88	Coastal Carolina	5604	5514 - 5604
89	Portland State	5603	5603 - 5803
90	Ohio	5585	5585 - 5665
91	TCU	5583	5518 - 5583
92	Bowling Green	5579	5564 - 5579
93	UNC Greensboro	5574	5574 - 5699
94	Rice	5558	5443 - 5598
95	Furman	5532	5427 - 5567
96	SIUE	5508	5198 - 5508
97	Central Arkansas	5498	5443 - 5568
98	San Jose State	5497	5497 - 5497
99	Princeton	5496	5496 - 5496
100	American	5493	5333 - 5603
101	Georgia Tech	5491	5491 - 5651
102	Illinois State	5488	5263 - 5488
103	Duke	5487	5442 - 5487
104	Arkansas State	5481	5456 - 5511
105	Oakland	5475	5475 - 5475
106	Boise State	5472	5472 - 5497
107	North Dakota	5460	5365 - 5515
108	Texas A&M	5450	5125 - 5455
109	Texas Tech	5445	5445 - 5515
110	UC Davis	5432	5432 - 5432
111	James Madison	5421	5286 - 5476
112	Ball State	5414	5414 - 5414
113	Radford	5407	5407 - 5727
114	East Tennessee State	5402	5367 - 5402
115	Stephen F. Austin	5401	5331 - 5401
116	Albany	5369	5109 - 5494
117	Murray State	5364	5344 - 5504
118	Kansas State	5350	5350 - 5415
119	Idaho	5348	5293 - 5348
119	Saint Marys	5348	5273 - 5483
121	Louisiana-Lafayette	5347	5342 - 5437
122	Arizona State	5333	5333 - 5523
123	Nevada	5331	5331 - 5331
124	Drake	5325	5325 - 5325
125	Wake Forest	5321	5321 - 5486
126	Portland	5320	5320 - 5435
127	South Dakota	5316	5316 - 5316
128	IUPUI	5304	5249 - 5304
129	Florida Gulf Coast	5296	5296 - 5416
129	Jacksonville	5296	5296 - 5461
131	Cincinnati	5276	5276 - 5441
132	Oral Roberts	5270	5150 - 5310
133	UCSB	5261	4971 - 5261
134	Tennessee	5256	4936 - 5266
135	Indiana	5250	5250 - 5750
136	Houston Baptist	5236	5236 - 5286
137	Wisconsin-Green Bay	5196	5156 - 5291
138	Tulane	5176	5176 - 5401
139	South Alabama	5172	4977 - 5177
140	North Dakota State	5147	5107 - 5147
141	Central Connecticut State	5140	4950 - 5170
142	Southern Miss	5139	4829 - 5179
143	Cal State Northridge	5136	5096 - 5261
144	Lipscomb	5124	4914 - 5124
145	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	5121	5071 - 5121
146	Hofstra	5118	5118 - 5193
147	New Mexico	5115	4945 - 5115
147	Long Beach State	5115	5095 - 5115
149	LIU Brooklyn	5113	4973 - 5113
150	Utah State	5112	5097 - 5112
150	New Mexico State	5112	5037 - 5112
152	Xavier	5107	4987 - 5107
153	Buffalo	5106	5106 - 5326
154	South Carolina	5100	5090 - 5235
155	Harvard	5075	5075 - 5115
156	Virginia Tech	5057	5057 - 5152
157	Wofford	5055	4890 - 5055
158	Cornell	5053	4913 - 5053
159	UT Rio Grande Valley	5030	5030 - 5030
160	Virginia	5029	4954 - 5149
161	Saint Louis	5027	4832 - 5027
162	Colgate	5019	5019 - 5019
163	Weber State	5013	5013 - 5143
164	Tulsa	5006	4996 - 5006
165	Bryant	5004	4974 - 5049
166	Northwestern State	4996	4996 - 5066
167	Illinois-Chicago	4984	4919 - 5024
168	Providence	4962	4962 - 5017
169	East Carolina	4960	4840 - 4960
170	Abilene Christian	4955	4955 - 4990
171	Columbia	4950	4950 - 5050
171	Fresno State	4950	4950 - 5030
173	Utah Valley	4949	4949 - 4949
174	Air Force	4946	4946 - 4946
175	Central Michigan	4939	4939 - 4939
176	Duquesne	4919	4729 - 4984
177	Northeastern	4904	4834 - 4904
178	Penn	4901	4891 - 4906
179	Northern Kentucky	4895	4895 - 5025
179	Northern Illinois	4895	4875 - 4935
181	Samford	4889	4889 - 4889
182	Dartmouth	4887	4887 - 4907
182	Milwaukee	4887	4887 - 4887
184	Fairfield	4886	4886 - 4886
185	New Hampshire	4885	4840 - 5050
186	CSU Bakersfield	4866	4866 - 4941
187	Army	4853	4853 - 4883
188	Navy	4848	4783 - 4848
189	Western Michigan	4846	4776 - 4871
190	Northern Arizona	4842	4842 - 4842
190	Nebraska-Omaha	4842	4842 - 4977
192	Indiana State	4838	4838 - 4838
193	McNeese State	4827	4827 - 4827
194	Houston	4826	4826 - 4826
195	Northern Colorado	4783	4783 - 4843
196	Seattle	4780	4700 - 4780
197	Eastern Michigan	4770	4730 - 4770
198	Belmont	4745	4745 - 4765
199	Elon	4740	4740 - 4740
200	UNCW	4737	4737 - 4757
201	Wright State	4724	4724 - 4724
202	UNLV	4722	4532 - 4782
202	Chattanooga	4722	4722 - 4722
204	Boston College	4719	4424 - 4719
205	Toledo	4707	4682 - 4727
206	Eastern Kentucky	4698	4678 - 4768
207	UT Arlington	4695	4695 - 4780
208	Lehigh	4684	4684 - 4684
209	Idaho State	4673	4418 - 4673
210	Evansville	4672	4672 - 4672
211	Southern Illinois	4671	4566 - 4671
212	Valparaiso	4670	4665 - 4670
213	Rhode Island	4662	4587 - 4667
213	Niagara	4662	4662 - 4717
215	Eastern Illinois	4660	4350 - 4660
216	USF	4654	4424 - 4654
217	Incarnate Word	4629	4394 - 4659
218	Mississippi State	4606	4491 - 4826
219	Florida A&M	4602	4497 - 4662
220	Jacksonville State	4601	4581 - 4671
221	UNC Asheville	4600	4600 - 4655
222	Campbell	4593	4573 - 4593
223	DePaul	4592	4592 - 4682
224	Clemson	4586	4556 - 4661
225	UConn	4561	4421 - 4561
226	Sam Houston State	4560	4465 - 4785
227	Mercer	4558	4558 - 4718
228	Appalachian State	4523	4418 - 4523
229	Southeast Missouri	4509	4509 - 4529
230	Bethune-Cookman	4497	4497 - 4657
231	Robert Morris	4495	4495 - 4595
231	San Francisco	4495	3995 - 4600
233	Charlotte	4493	4493 - 4493
234	Maryland Eastern Shore	4492	4437 - 4492
235	Rutgers	4481	4236 - 4481
236	Youngstown State	4432	4432 - 4557
237	Winthrop	4429	4429 - 4429
238	Georgetown	4425	4200 - 4425
239	Loyola-Chicago	4423	4233 - 4423
240	Montana State	4412	4412 - 4412
241	Stony Brook	4402	4327 - 4402
242	Troy University	4401	4401 - 4426
243	Bradley	4395	4395 - 4500
244	UMBC	4389	4389 - 4404
245	Kent State	4388	4388 - 4538
246	Fort Wayne	4384	4074 - 4384
247	Alabama State	4362	4277 - 4567
248	UC Riverside	4335	4035 - 4335
249	La Salle	4326	4326 - 4326
250	Texas-San Antonio	4323	4148 - 4323
251	Fordham	4321	4296 - 4321
252	UMKC	4318	4318 - 4558
253	Marshall	4314	4174 - 4314
254	Western Carolina	4275	4130 - 4275
255	Morehead State	4263	4263 - 4263
256	Memphis	4254	4254 - 4254
257	Arkansas-Little Rock	4250	4185 - 4250
258	Eastern Washington	4247	4247 - 4367
259	Montana	4244	4084 - 4244
260	Sacred Heart	4239	4164 - 4239
260	Bucknell	4239	4164 - 4239
262	Binghamton	4238	4238 - 4238
263	Georgia State	4233	4083 - 4233
264	George Washington	4221	4161 - 4221
265	Southern Utah	4202	4202 - 4407
266	Liberty	4200	3950 - 4200
267	Howard	4198	4058 - 4198
268	Marist	4183	4183 - 4328
269	UT Martin	4180	4170 - 4245
270	Cal State Fullerton	4171	4171 - 4201
270	South Carolina Upstate	4171	4166 - 4311
272	Delaware	4167	4157 - 4177
273	Iona	4163	4073 - 4163
274	UNF	4161	4086 - 4161
275	Davidson	4159	4159 - 4159
276	New Orleans	4126	3916 - 4126
277	UAB	4109	4109 - 4179
278	Louisiana Tech	4091	4091 - 4246
279	St. Francis-PA	4072	4072 - 4092
280	Hartford	4071	4071 - 4161
281	Brown	4070	3860 - 4070
282	Grand Canyon	4036	3771 - 4036
283	Rider	4012	3997 - 4012
284	Akron	4010	3610 - 4070
285	NJIT	3997	3997 - 3997
286	William & Mary	3989	3489 - 3989
287	Tennessee State	3962	3962 - 4012
288	UTEP	3921	3581 - 3921
289	Georgia Southern	3916	3916 - 3991
289	Florida International	3916	3916 - 3916
291	George Mason	3905	3780 - 3990
292	Quinnipiac	3875	3850 - 3875
293	Chicago State	3870	3870 - 4030
294	Western Illinois	3867	3762 - 3867
295	Louisiana-Monroe	3860	3615 - 3920
296	Stetson	3832	3832 - 3992
297	Presbyterian	3780	3780 - 3780
298	Loyola University Maryland	3775	3750 - 3775
299	Siena	3767	3712 - 3842
300	Canisius	3749	3749 - 3844
301	Middle Tennessee	3747	3247 - 3747
302	Hampton	3745	3615 - 3745
303	Lamar	3722	3722 - 3957
304	Fairleigh Dickinson	3709	3709 - 3774
305	St. Francis-Brooklyn	3696	3696 - 3826
306	Holy Cross	3692	3612 - 3692
306	Tennessee Tech	3692	3347 - 3772
308	UMass-Lowell	3644	3644 - 3899
309	Morgan State	3640	3580 - 3640
310	Charleston Southern	3617	3617 - 3862
311	North Carolina A&T	3613	3613 - 3613
312	Alabama A&M	3612	3612 - 3612
313	Lafayette	3610	3610 - 3825
314	South Dakota State	3592	3092 - 3697
315	Southeastern Louisiana	3553	3093 - 3553
316	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	3477	3277 - 3477
317	Texas Southern	3442	3312 - 3442
318	Gardner-Webb	3349	3349 - 3449
319	The Citadel	3345	3180 - 3345
320	Southern	3312	3312 - 3607
321	Coppin State	3202	3177 - 3442
322	North Carolina Central	3179	3174 - 3179
323	Delaware State	3010	2650 - 3035
324	Savannah State	3002	2922 - 3007
325	Manhattan College	2948	2868 - 3448
326	Grambling State	2922	2922 - 2922
326	Jackson State	2922	2922 - 2922
328	Nicholls State	2921	2731 - 2921
329	Prairie View A&M	2920	2760 - 2920
330	Mississippi Valley State	2730	2590 - 2750
331	Saint Peters	2697	2197 - 2777
332	South Carolina State	2647	2647 - 2832
333	Norfolk State	2480	1980 - 2480
334	Alcorn State	1980	1480 - 2260

[/font][/tbody][/table]

[newbeach]

Nov 15, 2017 13:13:56 GMT -5 The Bofa on the Sofa said:

Nov 15, 2017 13:09:23 GMT -5 newbeach said:

And UC Irvine ahead of them at 62? Granted I know nothing about this but this seems whack? Hawaii had a much tougher pre-season had many close 5 setters with ranked teams, Beat Baylor, went 5 with Poly twice, beat UC Irvine...but again, I don't have a clue about this stuff.

"Close 5 setters" mean little in this. If they lost, then that's what matters.

Thanks! I appreciate the info. Unfortunately, that is what makes many of these systems flawed. They may be helpful, but still flawed.

[BeachbytheBay]

Hawaii moves up from 78 to 45 by not playing.

sheesh, take another week off, and they'll be top 20

[trojansc]

If you think this system is "flawed" you have no idea what this ranking is attempting to do.

[Millennium]

Nov 15, 2017 14:03:01 GMT -5 trojansc said:

If you think this system is "flawed" you have no idea what this ranking is attempting to do.

Would you mind explaining what the PUR does?
I'm sure you'd be better at it than I.

[ProfessorPlum]

Nov 15, 2017 16:30:41 GMT -5 Millennium said:

Nov 15, 2017 14:03:01 GMT -5 trojansc said:

If you think this system is "flawed" you have no idea what this ranking is attempting to do.

Would you mind explaining what the PUR does?
I'm sure you'd be better at it than I.

I think it predicts who will beat who with an 87.3% accuracy looking in the review mirror. It also factors in HCA. So some find it as an interesting tool to predict what’s going to happen going forward and some use it as a quasi ranking. The biggest issue with treating it as a ranking is that many of the bad losses and big wins are outside of the 87.3% accuracy and are basically not accounted for. That’s it in laymens terms...I’m sure that statistics nerds on here will give a more scientific explanation

[n00b]

Nov 15, 2017 16:30:41 GMT -5 Millennium said:

Nov 15, 2017 14:03:01 GMT -5 trojansc said:

If you think this system is "flawed" you have no idea what this ranking is attempting to do.

Would you mind explaining what the PUR does?
I'm sure you'd be better at it than I.

Ranking the teams to minimize the number of "upsets" that have occurred (taking into account the home court advantage).

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Nov 15, 2017 16:42:29 GMT -5 ProfessorPlum said:

Nov 15, 2017 16:30:41 GMT -5 Millennium said:

Would you mind explaining what the PUR does?
I'm sure you'd be better at it than I.

I think it predicts who will beat who with an 87.3% accuracy looking in the review mirror. It also factors in HCA. So some find it as an interesting tool to predict what’s going to happen going forward and some use it as a quasi ranking. The biggest issue with treating it as a ranking is that many of the bad losses and big wins are outside of the 87.3% accuracy and are basically not accounted for. That’s it in laymens terms...I’m sure that statistics nerds on here will give a more scientific explanation

There is nothing "scientific" about it. All it does is try to do the best job possible of reflecting who has won in matches that have been played. Home teams have an advantage, so add in the HCA for home teams and compare ratings. The winning team will be higher rated 87.3% of the time. That's the best I can do.

If you don't like the results, all it says is that this is not a good way to rank teams. I wouldn't argue with you, which is why I don't promote PUR as anything but an exercise in FYI.

[newbeach]

Nov 15, 2017 17:58:11 GMT -5 The Bofa on the Sofa said:

Nov 15, 2017 16:42:29 GMT -5 ProfessorPlum said:

I think it predicts who will beat who with an 87.3% accuracy looking in the review mirror. It also factors in HCA. So some find it as an interesting tool to predict what’s going to happen going forward and some use it as a quasi ranking. The biggest issue with treating it as a ranking is that many of the bad losses and big wins are outside of the 87.3% accuracy and are basically not accounted for. That’s it in laymens terms...I’m sure that statistics nerds on here will give a more scientific explanation

There is nothing "scientific" about it. All it does is try to do the best job possible of reflecting who has won in matches that have been played. Home teams have an advantage, so add in the HCA for home teams and compare ratings. The winning team will be higher rated 87.3% of the time. That's the best I can do.

If you don't like the results, all it says is that this is not a good way to rank teams. I wouldn't argue with you, which is why I don't promote PUR as anything but an exercise in FYI.

I think it is very interesting and appreciate all the work put into this.