bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 24, 2017 16:13:31 GMT -5
Assuming Oregon can jump back into the top 25 RPI and give Stanford 10 top 25 wins, I see the top 8 seeds as 1-PSU 2-Stanford 3-Nebraska 4-Florida 5-Kentucky 6-Texas 7-Minnesota 8-Washington Could UW bounce Minn with a win over WSU and a Minn loss to PSU? That Stanford win could prove huge! Absolutely this could happen (IMO). They *could* end up being a 6 seed. If Minnesota losses then the final (likely) RPI will have Minnesota #7 and Washington #8 - it wouldn't take much for the committee to go either way. Not sure there is much of a difference between #7 and #8 seed - Is Stanford an easier path to the FF than Penn State? I will say that Stanford is more likely to get beat in the Sub-regional than Penn State - so the increased chance of being a regional host may be the difference?
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 24, 2017 17:01:37 GMT -5
How much does it hurt Missouri State that they are getting Indiana State instead of Drake in the semis?
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Post by trollhunter on Nov 24, 2017 17:03:09 GMT -5
Miami, Notre Dame, Washington State, and FSU have done enough to get off the bubble and into NCAA tournament. I think NC State has as well, but their RPI has gone south. They do have 4 top 50 wins and a relatively good SOS for bubble (50), so I believe they will squeeze in. Auburn and Villanova are out. LSU is praying for Auburn to win. The rest are still pending. Enjoy the weekend of volleyball! TrojanSC beat me to the predictions this week, it is hard to add to his excellent analysis, but here are my thoughts on bubble teams based on latest RPI Futures and NCAA Nitty Gritty: *NEED TO WIN 1 OF LAST 2 to EARN A NCAA AT-LARGE BID, OTHERWISE ON BUBBLE* (33) Missouri - beat Alabama or Florida. Great SOS, RPI and a pair of T50 wins puts them in good position. (34) Miami-Florida - relatively easy to win 1 match versus Georgia Tech and Clemson. 1 T25 and 3x t50 wins is solid. (36) Notre Dame - whip Syracuse or Boston College to dance. Probably do not even need another win, their resume is so strong with 1x t25 and 5x t50 wins. (37) Washington State - beat Arizona State or Washington. 2x t25 wins + 1x t50 and a great SOS. (40) Northern Iowa - 3x t25 wins + 1x t50 put UNI in even if they lose MVC semi-final I think. May depend on how far they fall in RPI in that case. (41) North Carolina State - beat Duke or Wake Forest. 4 top 50 wins is plenty this year. (42) Missouri State - have 4x t50 wins but could lose 1. Just win MVC semi. (47) Maryland - 2x t25 + 1x t50 and a strong SOS. Beat Ohio State or Northwestern to be one of last teams in. (48) Iowa - if they can beat Illinois or Nebraska that will be 4x t50 wins plus strong SOS and should get them dancing. **MUST WIN 2 MATCHES THIS WEEK TO EARN NCAA BID** (39) Ohio State - beat Maryland and Illinois. Would give them 6x t50 and good SOS. Must win both to be +.500 win % (43) LSU - beat Georgia + Tennessee, then hope Auburn stays t50 giving LSU 3x t50. (45) Auburn - beat Florida and Arkansas. Only 1x t50 win now, but Florida would be a t25 win. (46) Florida State - beat Georgia Tech and Clemson. They have wins over Baylor, Miami-FL, and Auburn, plus good SOS. (58) Georgia - beat LSU and Kentucky. Only have 1 t50 win, but these would boost resume and RPI greatly. ***TEAMS RIGHT ON EDGE OF BUBBLE*** (38) Hawaii- Their RPI will move depending on how other teams finish. Probably a few teams in list above falter, so they squeeze in on bubble. Just 1x t25 win, 0x 50 wins, and ok SOS leaves them waiting and hoping. (45) High Point - will get passed by teams with significant wins and better SOS. (47) North Texas - If Oregon State or WKU finish top 25, that would put UNT resume similar to Hawaii. Could be interesting. (50) College of Charleston - beat Baylor. If James Madison would finish top 50, COFC would get 2x t50 wins and be in bubble discussion. (53) Dayton - nope. (54) Butler - Must win BE tournament. Would steal an at-large bid probably. (68) Villanova - must win BE tournament. Would steal an at-large bid probably.
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bluepenquin
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4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 24, 2017 17:17:00 GMT -5
How much does it hurt Missouri State that they are getting Indiana State instead of Drake in the semis? .0036 - which was ~ 4 spots. Also lost .0014 from NC State dropping out of the unadjusted T50.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 24, 2017 17:21:50 GMT -5
How much does it hurt Missouri State that they are getting Indiana State instead of Drake in the semis? .0036 - which was ~ 4 spots. Also lost .0014 from NC State dropping out of the unadjusted T50. Does that put them sub 50 if they lose the MVC finals?
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Post by Millennium on Nov 24, 2017 17:28:42 GMT -5
Assuming Oregon can jump back into the top 25 RPI and give Stanford 10 top 25 wins, I see the top 8 seeds as 1-PSU 2-Stanford 3-Nebraska 4-Florida 5-Kentucky 6-Texas 7-Minnesota 8-Washington I really like this bracket. One can only hope.
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,447
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 24, 2017 17:29:43 GMT -5
.0036 - which was ~ 4 spots. Also lost .0014 from NC State dropping out of the unadjusted T50. Does that put them sub 50 if they lose the MVC finals? I have them going to ~ 44 if they lose to UNI. Not sure what it is if Illinois State - maybe 46.
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Post by redbeard2008 on Nov 24, 2017 17:38:34 GMT -5
Could UW bounce Minn with a win over WSU and a Minn loss to PSU? That Stanford win could prove huge! Absolutely this could happen (IMO). They *could* end up being a 6 seed. If Minnesota losses then the final (likely) RPI will have Minnesota #7 and Washington #8 - it wouldn't take much for the committee to go either way. Not sure there is much of a difference between #7 and #8 seed - Is Stanford an easier path to the FF than Penn State? I will say that Stanford is more likely to get beat in the Sub-regional than Penn State - so the increased chance of being a regional host may be the difference? Yeah, at #8 we go to PSU, #7 we go to Stanford, #6 we go to Nebraska? Not much to be wished for there. Florida beat Nebraska, however, so a strong case could be made for Florida as the #3 seed. In that case, UW would need to jump both Minnesota and Texas to go to Gaineswville.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 24, 2017 17:41:43 GMT -5
Does that put them sub 50 if they lose the MVC finals? I have them going to ~ 44 if they lose to UNI. Not sure what it is if Illinois State - maybe 46. That’ll be pretty safe then.
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les
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Post by les on Nov 24, 2017 17:46:41 GMT -5
Yeah, at #8 we go to PSU, #7 we go to Stanford, #6 we go to Nebraska? Not much to be wished for there. Florida beat Nebraska, however, so a strong case could be made for Florida as the #3 seed. In that case, UW would need to jump both Minnesota and Texas to go to Gaineswville. Given recent history I would take my chances with Stanford again. IMO PSU seems to be heads & shoulders above everybody else.
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les
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Post by les on Nov 24, 2017 17:49:00 GMT -5
Yeah, at #8 we go to PSU, #7 we go to Stanford, #6 we go to Nebraska? Not much to be wished for there. Florida beat Nebraska, however, so a strong case could be made for Florida as the #3 seed. In that case, UW would need to jump both Minnesota and Texas to go to Gaineswville. Given recent history I would take my chances with Stanford again. IMO PSU seems to be heads & shoulders above everybody else. Though Stanford did play PSU much evener with a healthy Lutz.
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Post by redbeard2008 on Nov 24, 2017 17:59:13 GMT -5
Already baked into RPI. If the RPI Futures of 11/22 sticks (no guarantee), then Washington has 9 top-25 wins and 3 top-10 wins, compared to 5 and 1 for Minnesota. Washington's win over Stanford (4) trumps Minnesota's win over Texas (5). If Illinois (25) or Louisville (23) falls out, Minnesota will be down to 4 top-25 wins, to 3 top-25 wins if both fall out. On the other hand, if Oregon falls out, Washington will still have 7 top-25 wins. Minnesota was able to skip matches against Penn State, Nebraska, and Illinois; Washington skipped matches against Arizona and ASU. Well lots of stuff for consideration are already “baked Into the RPI”. My comment was direct response to southie re why people aren’t suggest UW should be a top 4 seed based on top 25 wins. I’m not sure what your comment here has to do with anything I said. Is Minnesota in your "them"? Also, it is not entirely out of the picture that UW could jump Texas (see bluepenguin's post), based on 3 top-10 wins vs 0 for Texas and 9 top-25 wins vs 7 for Texas. Washington has taken more losses because they played in a much tougher conference. I agree that jumping all the way up to #4 is highly unlikely.
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Post by Fight On! on Nov 24, 2017 18:11:56 GMT -5
Ebony played that match. She only played the first set and went 0 for 10 so they took her out for YBG. Right now the pac has 58% of teams in top 25 RPI. Big is only at 42%. If a team can't beat NE or PSU then they have nothing to hold their hat on. UW beat Stanford. If I recall, they pulled Ebony because of injury. Nope. Pulled due to going 0 for 10.
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 24, 2017 18:36:08 GMT -5
The number of Washington’s losses is a HUGE red flag for jumping them. 7 losses compared to 2 or 3.... that’s significant. Correction. Minn will have 5 losses and UW 7 assuming UW wins and Minn loses this weekend. Given UWs higher SOS and Minn only playing PSU and NE once and given they loss both leaves them with only the diminished TX win (Texas was minus Ebony). And given the Big 10 keeps losing teams from the top 25 I don't see how they can be ahead of UW at the end of season with a loss to PSU and a UW win. Again, none of this has anything to do with my response to southies original post which was talking about UW as a top 4 seed, soooooo it really just seems like you are arguing with yourself.
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les
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Post by les on Nov 24, 2017 19:35:07 GMT -5
Correction. Minn will have 5 losses and UW 7 assuming UW wins and Minn loses this weekend. Given UWs higher SOS and Minn only playing PSU and NE once and given they loss both leaves them with only the diminished TX win (Texas was minus Ebony). And given the Big 10 keeps losing teams from the top 25 I don't see how they can be ahead of UW at the end of season with a loss to PSU and a UW win. Again, none of this has anything to do with my response to southies original post which was talking about UW as a top 4 seed, soooooo it really just seems like you are arguing with yourself. My mistake. I fed off the wrong thread: 6 hours ago ay2013 said: The number of Washington’s losses is a HUGE red flag for jumping them. 7 losses compared to 2 or 3.... that’s significant. Already baked into RPI. If the RPI Futures of 11/22 sticks (no guarantee), then Washington has 9 top-25 wins and 3 top-10 wins, compared to 5 and 1 for Minnesota. Washington's win over Stanford (4) trumps Minnesota's win over Texas (5). If Illinois (25) or Louisville (23) falls out, Minnesota will be down to 4 top-25 wins, to 3 top-25 wins if both fall out. On the other hand, if Oregon falls out, Washington will still have 7 top-25 wins. Minnesota was able to skip matches against Penn State, Nebraska, and Illinois; Washington skipped matches against Arizona and ASU.
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