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Post by redbeard2008 on Nov 24, 2017 19:35:58 GMT -5
Yeah, at #8 we go to PSU, #7 we go to Stanford, #6 we go to Nebraska? Not much to be wished for there. Florida beat Nebraska, however, so a strong case could be made for Florida as the #3 seed. In that case, UW would need to jump both Minnesota and Texas to go to Gaineswville. Given recent history I would take my chances with Stanford again. IMO PSU seems to be heads & shoulders above everybody else. UW does lead Stanford 5 sets to 4...
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Post by redbeard2008 on Nov 24, 2017 19:37:22 GMT -5
Again, none of this has anything to do with my response to southies original post which was talking about UW as a top 4 seed, soooooo it really just seems like you are arguing with yourself. My mistake. I fed off the wrong thread: 6 hours ago ay2013 said: The number of Washington’s losses is a HUGE red flag for jumping them. 7 losses compared to 2 or 3.... that’s significant. Already baked into RPI. If the RPI Futures of 11/22 sticks (no guarantee), then Washington has 9 top-25 wins and 3 top-10 wins, compared to 5 and 1 for Minnesota. Washington's win over Stanford (4) trumps Minnesota's win over Texas (5). If Illinois (25) or Louisville (23) falls out, Minnesota will be down to 4 top-25 wins, to 3 top-25 wins if both fall out. On the other hand, if Oregon falls out, Washington will still have 7 top-25 wins. Minnesota was able to skip matches against Penn State, Nebraska, and Illinois; Washington skipped matches against Arizona and ASU. I said the second part.
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les
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Post by les on Nov 24, 2017 19:37:51 GMT -5
Right now the pac has 58% of teams in top 25 RPI. Big is only at 42%. If a team can't beat NE or PSU then they have nothing to hold their hat on. UW beat Stanford. If I recall, they pulled Ebony because of injury. Nope. Pulled due to going 0 for 10. I didn't want to post this but she had cramps and not of the leg type.
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Post by trollhunter on Nov 24, 2017 21:37:18 GMT -5
*BUBBLE TEAMS THAT HAVE EARNED NCAA AT-LARGE BIDS THIS WEEK: Miami, Notre Dame, Washington State, FSU, Missouri State, Northern Iowa. Missouri (probably) although they may lose one or both of their t50 wins (LSU and Auburn) - their RPI and SOS are so good I don't think there will be enough bubble teams with resumes to bump them. NC State (probably) with a 48ish RPI, 4 top 50 wins and a relatively good SOS for bubble (50) they should float over High Point, North Texas, LSU, Iowa, etc. Maryland (probably) with a 48ish RPI, 2 t25 wins and 2 more t25 wins, great SOS, may float above NC State and the group listed above. **BUBBLE TEAMS THAT DROPPED OUT OF CONTENTION THIS WEEK: Auburn, Villanova, Butler, Dayton are out. LSU is on life support with just a single t50 win - will probably get passed by other teams better resume. Nothing outstanding with their RPI, W-L, SOS, H2H, Common Opponents, etc. They are hoping that Auburn ends up t50 as it would boost their resume. *** SATURDAY BUBBLE teams/games: Ohio State must beat Illinois - puts them ahead of Iowa/Maryland. Otherwise ineligible due to sub .500 record. LSU is praying for Auburn to win to get credit for 2 more t50 wins. Even if so they will be on edge of bubble. COFC is hoping JMU ends up as a t50 RPI to pickup a 2 more significant wins. Iowa must beat Nebraska - puts them even with Maryland and ahead of NC State. Otherwise on edge of bubble with 3x top 50, 48ish RPI, poor W-L, good SOS. TrojanSC beat me to the predictions this week, it is hard to add to his excellent analysis, but here are my thoughts on bubble teams based on latest RPI Futures and NCAA Nitty Gritty: *NEED TO WIN 1 OF LAST 2 to EARN A NCAA AT-LARGE BID, OTHERWISE ON BUBBLE* (33) Missouri - beat Alabama or Florida. Great SOS, RPI and a pair of T50 wins puts them in good position. (34) Miami-Florida - relatively easy to win 1 match versus Georgia Tech and Clemson. 1 T25 and 3x t50 wins is solid. (36) Notre Dame - whip Syracuse or Boston College to dance. Probably do not even need another win, their resume is so strong with 1x t25 and 5x t50 wins. (37) Washington State - beat Arizona State or Washington. 2x t25 wins + 1x t50 and a great SOS. (40) Northern Iowa - 3x t25 wins + 1x t50 put UNI in even if they lose MVC semi-final I think. May depend on how far they fall in RPI in that case. (41) North Carolina State - beat Duke or Wake Forest. 4 top 50 wins is plenty this year. (42) Missouri State - have 4x t50 wins but could lose 1. Just win MVC semi. (47) Maryland - 2x t25 + 1x t50 and a strong SOS. Beat Ohio State or Northwestern to be one of last teams in. (48) Iowa - if they can beat Illinois or Nebraska that will be 4x t50 wins plus strong SOS and should get them dancing. **MUST WIN 2 MATCHES THIS WEEK TO EARN NCAA BID** (39) Ohio State - beat Maryland and Illinois. Would give them 6x t50 and good SOS. Must win both to be +.500 win % (43) LSU - beat Georgia + Tennessee, then hope Auburn stays t50 giving LSU 3x t50. (45) Auburn - beat Florida and Arkansas. Only 1x t50 win now, but Florida would be a t25 win. (46) Florida State - beat Georgia Tech and Clemson. They have wins over Baylor, Miami-FL, and Auburn, plus good SOS. (58) Georgia - beat LSU and Kentucky. Only have 1 t50 win, but these would boost resume and RPI greatly. ***TEAMS RIGHT ON EDGE OF BUBBLE*** (38) Hawaii- Their RPI will move depending on how other teams finish. Probably a few teams in list above falter, so they squeeze in on bubble. Just 1x t25 win, 0x 50 wins, and ok SOS leaves them waiting and hoping. (45) High Point - will get passed by teams with significant wins and better SOS. (47) North Texas - If Oregon State or WKU finish top 25, that would put UNT resume similar to Hawaii. Could be interesting. (50) College of Charleston - beat Baylor. If James Madison would finish top 50, COFC would get 2x t50 wins and be in bubble discussion. (53) Dayton - nope. (54) Butler - Must win BE tournament. Would steal an at-large bid probably. (68) Villanova - must win BE tournament. Would steal an at-large bid probably.
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Post by jayj79 on Nov 24, 2017 23:33:21 GMT -5
In tonight's Missouri Valley Conference Tournament action: Missouri State started slow, but bounced back to sweep Indiana State: -24, -15, -16 Northern Iowa (UNI) defeated the host team, Illinois State 3-1 (25-20 24-26 25-22 25-15)
Sets up Missouri State vs. UNI for the championship.
I'm hoping whichever team loses still has enough of a resume to get an at-large, but it will be close
UNI probably has the better at-large resume, but as a Panther fan, I'd still be nervous if it comes down to depending on the logic of the selection committee.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 24, 2017 23:47:11 GMT -5
I wouldn't be too nervous. Missouri State is behind UNI in RPI and top-25 victories, so they definitely need it more. I can't see UNI being left out. They are #39 in RPI right now and a loss to Missouri State can't hurt too much.
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Post by jayj79 on Nov 24, 2017 23:58:54 GMT -5
well then, I'm just selfish, as I still want UNI to win tomorrow. haha
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 25, 2017 0:30:03 GMT -5
With just one day left - here is the updated RPI Futures.
1. Kentucky 2. Penn State 3. Florida 4. Stanford 5. Texas 6. Nebraska 7. Minnesota 8. Washington 9. USC 10. Utah 11. Baylor 12. Creighton 13. Iowa State 14. Kansas 15. BYU 16. Wichita State 17. Wisconsin 18. Cal Poly 19. UCLA 20. San Diego 21. Michigan State 22. Louisville 23. Oregon 24. Purdue 25. Colorado 26. Illinois 27. Pittsburgh 28. Western Kentucky 29. Michigan 30. Marquette 31. Oregon State 32. Colorado State 33. Missouri 34. Miami-FL 35. VCU 36. Northern Iowa 37. Washington State 38. Ohio State 39. Hawaii 40. Notre Dame 41. Florida State 42. Missouri State 43. High Point 44. Iowa 45. LSU 46. North Texas 47. NC State 48. Maryland 49. Kennesaw State 50. College of Charleston 51. Auburn 52. James Madison 53. Dayton 54. Butler 55. Georgia 56. Arkansas 57. Austin Peay 58. Denver 59. Texas A&M 60. Radford
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 25, 2017 0:46:51 GMT -5
With just one day left - here is the updated RPI Futures. What do you have the RPI as of right now with matches through today? Waiting for figstats to update..
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 25, 2017 0:52:45 GMT -5
With just one day left - here is the updated RPI Futures. 1. Kentucky 2. Penn State 3. Florida 4. Stanford 5. Texas 6. Nebraska 7. Minnesota 8. Washington 9. USC 10. Utah 11. Baylor 12. Creighton 13. Iowa State 14. Kansas 15. BYU 16. Wichita State 17. Wisconsin 18. Cal Poly 19. UCLA 20. San Diego 21. Michigan State 22. Louisville 23. Oregon 24. Purdue 25. Colorado 26. Illinois 27. Pittsburgh 28. Western Kentucky 29. Michigan 30. Marquette 31. Oregon State 32. Colorado State 33. Missouri 34. Miami-FL 35. VCU 36. Northern Iowa 37. Washington State 38. Ohio State 39. Hawaii 40. Notre Dame 41. Florida State 42. Missouri State 43. High Point 44. Iowa 45. LSU 46. North Texas 47. NC State 48. Maryland 49. Kennesaw State 50. College of Charleston 51. Auburn 52. James Madison 53. Dayton 54. Butler 55. Georgia 56. Arkansas 57. Austin Peay 58. Denver 59. Texas A&M 60. Radford Too bad Purdue can’t be out of the top 25 and pitt in!
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Nov 25, 2017 1:12:37 GMT -5
interesting thing if UCLA beats USC
would the NCAA give both UCLA & USC seeds?
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Post by southie on Nov 25, 2017 1:18:26 GMT -5
interesting thing if UCLA beats USC would the NCAA give both UCLA & USC seeds? They've both hosted in the same post-season many times.
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Post by stevehorn on Nov 25, 2017 2:01:23 GMT -5
Can someone explain the mathematics of RPI that results in Kentucky at #1. At a minimum, hard to understand the logic that has them ahead of Penn State and Florida.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 25, 2017 2:22:13 GMT -5
BYU is looking in good shape for a seed out of nowhere. As AY alluded to earlier, I have serious issues with Wisconsin jumping them if they have a lower RPI.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 25, 2017 2:33:01 GMT -5
Here are some averages - 500 simulations on the final day games.
1. Kentucky - Avg - 2.0; 1st (23%), 2nd (57%), 3rd (20%)
2. Penn State - Avg - 1.7 W (72%), Avg - 1.1; 1st (98%) L (28%), Avg - 3.3
3. Florida - Avg - 2.8 W (80%), Avg - 2.3; 1st (11%), 2nd (44%) L (20%), Avg - 4.5
4. Stanford - Avg - 4.4 W (98%), Avg - 4.4
5. Texas - Avg - 4.7 W (57%), Avg - 3.5 L (43%), Avg - 6.1
6. Nebraska - Avg - 5.8 W (93%), Avg - 5.8 L (7%), Avg - 6.6
7. Minnesota - Avg - 6.6 W (28%), Avg - 5.8 L (72%), Avg - 7.0
8. Washington - Avg - 8.0
9. USC - Avg - 9.2 W (53%), Avg - 9.0 L (47%), Avg - 10.5
10. Utah - Avg - 10.0
11. Baylor - Avg - 10.6 W (43%), Avg - 9.5 L (57%), Avg - 13.2
12. Creighton - Avg - 13.8 W (47%), Avg - 11.4 L (53%), Avg - 15.8; 15th (26%), 16th (35%), 17th (29%)
13. Iowa State - Avg - 12.9 W (90%), Avg - 12.3 L (10%), Avg - 18.1
14. Kansas - Avg - 13.3 W (83%), Avg - 12.3 L (17%), Avg - 17.4
15. BYU - Avg - 14.6; 14th or better (48%), 15th (34%), 16th (16%)
16. Wichita State - Avg - 15.0; 14th or better (24%), 15th (46%), 16th (27%)
17. Wisconsin - Avg - 17.4 W - Avg - 17.4; 16th or better (12%), 17th (47%), 18th (34%)
18. Cal Poly - Avg - 18.2
19. UCLA - Avg - 20.2 W (47%), Avg - 16.1; 14th or better (8%), 15th (11%), 16th (42%) L (53%), Avg - 23.7
Missouri - Avg - 32.9 L (80%), Avg - 33.5
Northern Iowa - Avg - 39.3 L (51%), Avg - 42.1
Missouri State - Avg - 42.0 L (49%), Avg - 44.6
Iowa - Avg - 44.9 L (93%), Avg - 45.5
LSU - Avg - 43.8; Range (40-48)
NC State - Avg - 47.0; Range (45.49)
Maryland - Avg - 48.6; Range (46-51)
Auburn - Avg - 48.7 W (45%), Avg - 43.2
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