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Post by bayarea on Nov 5, 2018 23:18:11 GMT -5
It's fascinating that you have Pepperdine finishing at 42. They are currently at 52, and could easily lose 3 of their remaining 6 matches. They could lose 3 of their final 5, but Pablo has them favored in all 5. Plus Hawaii, LMU, and Portland have good records for their RPI. The #42 is based on 3.5 wins out of 5. I totally don't buy the 3.5 wins, especially based on Ahrens being injured, and how they lost to Pacific at home. But time will tell.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 5, 2018 23:29:03 GMT -5
They could lose 3 of their final 5, but Pablo has them favored in all 5. Plus Hawaii, LMU, and Portland have good records for their RPI. The #42 is based on 3.5 wins out of 5. I totally don't buy the 3.5 wins, especially based on Ahrens being injured, and how they lost to Pacific at home. But time will tell. Pablo wouldn't know about a recent injury...
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Post by pelagius on Nov 5, 2018 23:43:29 GMT -5
It's fascinating that you have Pepperdine finishing at 42. They are currently at 52, and could easily lose 3 of their remaining 6 matches. They could lose 3 of their final 5, but Pablo has them favored in all 5. Plus Hawaii, LMU, and Portland have good records for their RPI. The #42 is based on 3.5 wins out of 5. Yeah, statistical models that use sensible specifications and are based on margin of game/set outcomes (like Pablo) all rate Pepperdine highly relative to its RPI and rate Pepperdine highly relative to the other 2-6 WCC teams (with the exception of San Diego).
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Post by bbk on Nov 6, 2018 11:26:25 GMT -5
42. (42) Pepperdine - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 45.245 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 58% T90 - 100% 46. (43) Saint Marys - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 48.371 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 40% T90 - 100% 45. (44) Arizona - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 48.554 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 43% T90 - 100% 44. (45) Yale - Ivy Avg RPI Rank 48.979 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 33% T90 - 100% 43. (46) Hawaii - Big West Avg RPI Rank 48.996 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 40% T90 - 100% 47. (47) San Diego - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 49.193 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 42% T90 - 100% 48. (48) James Madison - Colonial Avg RPI Rank 49.39 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 36% T90 - 100% 49. (49) Notre Dame - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 50.176 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 36% T90 - 100% 51. (50) Wichita State - American Athletic Avg RPI Rank 54.301 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 23% T90 - >99% 53. (51) Princeton - Ivy Avg RPI Rank 54.724 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - <0% T90 - 100% 52. (52) Utah - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 55.392 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 22% T90 - 100% 50. (53) Kansas State - Big 12 Avg RPI Rank 56.223 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 22% T90 - 100% Read more: volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/75479/rpi-futures-week-11-18#ixzz5W2XYJpnLthis area is a little tricky for certain programs..... 2 Ivy schools in the Top 60 is very interesting
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Post by BLASÉ on Nov 6, 2018 20:15:00 GMT -5
42. (42) Pepperdine - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 45.245 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 58% T90 - 100% 46. (43) Saint Marys - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 48.371 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 40% T90 - 100% 45. (44) Arizona - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 48.554 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 43% T90 - 100% 44. (45) Yale - Ivy Avg RPI Rank 48.979 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 33% T90 - 100% 43. (46) Hawaii - Big West Avg RPI Rank 48.996 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 40% T90 - 100% 47. (47) San Diego - West Coast Avg RPI Rank 49.193 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 42% T90 - 100% 48. (48) James Madison - Colonial Avg RPI Rank 49.39 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 36% T90 - 100% 49. (49) Notre Dame - Atlantic Coast Avg RPI Rank 50.176 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 36% T90 - 100% 51. (50) Wichita State - American Athletic Avg RPI Rank 54.301 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 23% T90 - >99% 53. (51) Princeton - Ivy Avg RPI Rank 54.724 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - <0% T90 - 100% 52. (52) Utah - Pac 12 Avg RPI Rank 55.392 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 22% T90 - 100% 50. (53) Kansas State - Big 12 Avg RPI Rank 56.223 T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 22% T90 - 100% Read more: volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/75479/rpi-futures-week-11-18#ixzz5W2XYJpnLthis area is a little tricky for certain programs..... 2 Ivy schools in the Top 60 is very interesting pepp plays hawaii in an hour, pepp won 2 vs st mary.s, but san diego is 1-1 vs pepp and smc. james madison has a loss to wichita but expected to win the conf but can play spoiler. notre dame im not sure, wichita is annoying... princeton no idea but expected to win conf. utah might be in if they stay above .500. kansas state has 2x wins over hawaii
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 8, 2018 12:24:10 GMT -5
I have mentioned this in another thread - but Baylor has a clear path to being a seed. Here is their remaining schedule:
@ Kansas State @ Texas Tech Texas West Virginia
Pablo still likes Kansas State and Texas Tech - but Tech seems to be 'imploding' and I am not sure what K-State has right now. Pablo only gives Baylor a 27% chance of winning the 3 non Texas matches - I think their chances are much better than this. Pablo gives Baylor a 34% chance of beating Texas at home.
If Baylor wins all 4, their average RPI Futures is 12.9 and are always 15 or better. I think it is 99% likely that Baylor will be hosting if they win the final 4 matches.
If Baylor wins just 3 - then their average RPI Futures is 16.1 with the following probabilities:
13 or better - 10% chance 14 or better - 23% chance 15 or better - 41% chance 16 or better - 57% chance 17 or better - 74% chance 18 or better - 88% chance 19 or better - 94% chance
Beating Texas and losing one other probably puts them on the better RPI side of this range - so if we were to assume a loss to Texas and wins against the rest, then their RPI probabilities wouldn't be this good - but would probably leave them with the chance to be a seed. Michigan losing last night was helpful to Baylor.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 8, 2018 12:34:37 GMT -5
Just checked - Baylor loses to Texas and wins the rest:
Average RPI is 16.8
15 or better - 29% 16 or better - 43% 17 or better - 64%
A Texas win may be necessary.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 8, 2018 15:17:29 GMT -5
I’m concerned about Baylor on the road. They don’t play well away from home.
Baylor’s best road/neutral court win is a 3-2 win over UTSA.
Baylor also went 5 at West Virginia, TCU, and Iowa State
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Post by Cruz'n on Nov 8, 2018 16:06:50 GMT -5
I’m concerned about Baylor on the road. They don’t play well away from home. Baylor’s best road/neutral court win is a 3-2 win over UTSA. Baylor also went 5 at West Virginia, TCU, and Iowa State ...And UTSA is #75 in this threads RPI futures. So essentially Baylor has no good road/neutral wins. I am definitely not good at predicting seeds, but I just don't see them getting one if they go 3-1, losing to Texas, with zero quality road wins, and hovering at 16 RPI. I suppose that depends on whether there is anyone else deserving, which I imagine there will be.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 8, 2018 16:18:21 GMT -5
I’m concerned about Baylor on the road. They don’t play well away from home. Baylor’s best road/neutral court win is a 3-2 win over UTSA. Baylor also went 5 at West Virginia, TCU, and Iowa State ...And UTSA is #75 in this threads RPI futures. So essentially Baylor has no good road/neutral wins. I am definitely not good at predicting seeds, but I just don't see them getting one if they go 3-1, losing to Texas, with zero quality road wins, and hovering at 16 RPI. I suppose that depends on whether there is anyone else deserving, which I imagine there will be. And at larges would be very eager to be sent there. The non-Texas Big XII seeds have a horrific subregional record. In the past 5 years, only one out of 6(!!!!) has made it to Week 2.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 8, 2018 16:38:15 GMT -5
I’m concerned about Baylor on the road. They don’t play well away from home. Baylor’s best road/neutral court win is a 3-2 win over UTSA. Baylor also went 5 at West Virginia, TCU, and Iowa State Baylor's best road/neutral court wins are Iowa State, TCU, Oklahoma - and then Kansas State and Texas Tech if they are to be even in consideration for a seed.
They are 5-3 on the road and 1-1 on neutral sites - including a 5 set loss to UCLA in which they scored 53.5% of the points.
Their notable wins have been at home - but also their notable losses (not that this helps their case, but it isn't like they are completely different team at home, they have just had more opportunities at home).
Like many of the teams in consideration - they have been wildly inconsistent. They have also faced some significant injury concerns (not that this is factor in the selection).
Their wins against Texas State and Rice could both be T25 wins along with T25 wins over Marquette and Wisconsin - they have the potential of 4 T25 wins before the home match against Texas. I think a top 16 RPI will work for them - especially if Texas State/Rice stick in the top 25.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 8, 2018 17:12:56 GMT -5
Tough road matches tonight for Rice (@florida Atlantic) and Saint Mary’s ( portland) Cal Poly still needs to take care of business - @ Davis not a cakewalk. UCLA really needs to win against Wazzu as their seeding chances are almost gone.
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 8, 2018 18:01:00 GMT -5
Tough road matches tonight for Rice (@florida Atlantic) and Saint Mary’s ( portland ) Cal Poly still needs to take care of business - @ Davis not a cakewalk. UCLA really needs to win against Wazzu as their seeding chances are almost gone. I would add Western Kentucky. They have been sneaking into bubble consideration after a rough start to the season. Tonight they play at UAB in a match they probably need to win. Their current RPI is 51 - but their last match is against poor record LA Tech which will hurt. They have a T25 win against Cincinnati and 2 more T50 wins against East Tennessee and Notre Dame (possibly).
Another under the radar match - UC Irvine hosts UCSB tonight and are hanging around the #75 mark in unadjusted RPI. A loss tonight and they are likely to permanently move below 75 which is likely to cost Illinois the scheduling bonus. This could make a difference for regional seed if USC goes on a roll (big night for them also).
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2018 18:13:35 GMT -5
Tough road matches tonight for Rice (@florida Atlantic) and Saint Mary’s ( portland ) Cal Poly still needs to take care of business - @ Davis not a cakewalk. UCLA really needs to win against Wazzu as their seeding chances are almost gone. I would add Western Kentucky. They have been sneaking into bubble consideration after a rough start to the season. Tonight they play at UAB in a match they probably need to win. Their current RPI is 51 - but their last match is against poor record LA Tech which will hurt. They have a T25 win against Cincinnati and 2 more T50 wins against East Tennessee and Notre Dame (possibly).
Another under the radar match - UC Irvine hosts UCSB tonight and are hanging around the #75 mark in unadjusted RPI. A loss tonight and they are likely to permanently move below 75 which is likely to cost Illinois the scheduling bonus. This could make a difference for regional seed if USC goes on a roll (big night for them also).
Think it would be a stretch to see them overtake Illinois, unless Illinois falls apart. Only 3 losses so far, compared to 7 for USC, and none to teams outside the Top 10
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 8, 2018 18:24:13 GMT -5
I would add Western Kentucky. They have been sneaking into bubble consideration after a rough start to the season. Tonight they play at UAB in a match they probably need to win. Their current RPI is 51 - but their last match is against poor record LA Tech which will hurt. They have a T25 win against Cincinnati and 2 more T50 wins against East Tennessee and Notre Dame (possibly).
Another under the radar match - UC Irvine hosts UCSB tonight and are hanging around the #75 mark in unadjusted RPI. A loss tonight and they are likely to permanently move below 75 which is likely to cost Illinois the scheduling bonus. This could make a difference for regional seed if USC goes on a roll (big night for them also).
Think it would be a stretch to see them overtake Illinois, unless Illinois falls apart. Only 3 losses so far, compared to 7 for USC, and none to teams outside the Top 10 If USC wins out and Illinois loses once - USC will pass Illinois in RPI. They will have a couple more T25 wins and many more T50 wins. I like USC's chances in that scenario. That said - I don't think USC will win out and this assumes that Illinois loses again.
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