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Post by jayj79 on Nov 10, 2018 14:55:38 GMT -5
My bad - I had/meant Western Kentucky (not Yale). those two institutions are commonly mistaken for each other, especially in academic circles
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 10, 2018 15:41:17 GMT -5
Here is my bracket after Friday's matches looking at RPI Futures. Marquette and Purdue are first out for seed. 1. Stanford: Saint Marys, Duke, Howard 16. Baylor: Oregon, Rice, UT Rio Grande Valley 8. Wisconsin: Illinois State, UCLA, Bowling Green 9. Pittsburgh: Michigan, James Madison, VCU 4. Illinois: Cincinnati, Louisville, Austin Peay 13. UCF: Florida, Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast 5. Texas: Texas State, Stephen F. Austin, LIU Brooklyn 12. Penn State: Syracuse, Dayton, Stony Brook 2. BYU: Colorado State, Utah, Idaho 15. Northern Iowa: Marquette, Kansas, Yale 7. Kentucky: Purdue, East Tennessee State, Alabama A&M 10. Nebraska: Missouri, Kansas State, American 3. Minnesota: Tennessee, Arizona, Green Bay 14. Creighton: Washington, San Diego, Denver 6. USC: Cal Poly, Pepperdine, Rider 11. Washington State: South Carolina, Hawaii, High Point Last 4 in: Arizona, Utah, Hawaii, Kansas State First 4 out: LMU, Colorado, Yale, Western Kentucky, Princeton Next 4 out: Indiana, Wichita State, Miami, Notre Dame I like this, but I think Colorado gets in. Also some questions, if you can answer some of them? Appreciated! Cincy chances of staying Top 25? They are flirting in both adjusted and unadjusted.. UCF RPI if they win out? / Florida’s RPI losing just one? Could College of Charleston end up T50 and help JMU? You have Dayton as an at-large, are the numbers in their favor?
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 10, 2018 16:51:14 GMT -5
Here is my bracket after Friday's matches looking at RPI Futures. Marquette and Purdue are first out for seed. 1. Stanford: Saint Marys, Duke, Howard 16. Baylor: Oregon, Rice, UT Rio Grande Valley 8. Wisconsin: Illinois State, UCLA, Bowling Green 9. Pittsburgh: Michigan, James Madison, VCU 4. Illinois: Cincinnati, Louisville, Austin Peay 13. UCF: Florida, Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast 5. Texas: Texas State, Stephen F. Austin, LIU Brooklyn 12. Penn State: Syracuse, Dayton, Stony Brook 2. BYU: Colorado State, Utah, Idaho 15. Northern Iowa: Marquette, Kansas, Yale 7. Kentucky: Purdue, East Tennessee State, Alabama A&M 10. Nebraska: Missouri, Kansas State, American 3. Minnesota: Tennessee, Arizona, Green Bay 14. Creighton: Washington, San Diego, Denver 6. USC: Cal Poly, Pepperdine, Rider 11. Washington State: South Carolina, Hawaii, High Point Last 4 in: Arizona, Utah, Hawaii, Kansas State First 4 out: LMU, Colorado, Yale, Western Kentucky, Princeton Next 4 out: Indiana, Wichita State, Miami, Notre Dame I like this, but I think Colorado gets in. Also some questions, if you can answer some of them? Appreciated! Cincy chances of staying Top 25? They are flirting in both adjusted and unadjusted.. UCF RPI if they win out? / Florida’s RPI losing just one? Could College of Charleston end up T50 and help JMU? You have Dayton as an at-large, are the numbers in their favor? Cincinnati - Futures is currently #23 unadjusted and #24 adjusted. They win all 4 - they will be in the T25. They win 3 and it is probably 50/50. UCF averages #10 whether they win the rest or lose just one more. Kind of depends on what Nebraska, Washington State, and Penn State do. There is currently a pretty big gap between 10 and 11 according to Futures. Florida averages ~ 18 when losing once (Tennessee). CofC - they are pretty far away from T50 - but I don't have a way to easily account for the conference tournament. Looks like they will play UNCW and then maybe Hofstra in the 2nd round? That would help. Dayton - I have them at #32 in RPI Futures - but the T25/50 wins is very light. I am guessing that VCU is the favorite to win the tournament since they are hosting and won the regular season. It would help (I suppose) if they get LaSalle instead of St. Louis in their 1st match - but I think that RPI is going to be too good to be left out. Colorado certainly has their own fate in their hands.
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Post by jayj79 on Nov 10, 2018 17:03:22 GMT -5
kinda surprised to see UNI bumped back into a seed. Last week, their future RPI projection had dropped a couple spots, and while they did win last night, it wasn't like it was an upset or anything. But perhaps the results of other action affected their relative position more. (not really expecting an explaination. I'm just rambling and thinking out loud. haha).
Would LOVE to see them get a hosting opportunity, but I'm not holding my breath. (in any case, given the numerous seeds within 400 miles, I'm quite sure they'll be playing within driving distance (unless they totally bomb and drop a couple of their 3 remaining regular season matches as well as a conference tourney game), and I plan on attending wherever they play)
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 10, 2018 19:24:45 GMT -5
kinda surprised to see UNI bumped back into a seed. Last week, their future RPI projection had dropped a couple spots, and while they did win last night, it wasn't like it was an upset or anything. But perhaps the results of other action affected their relative position more. (not really expecting an explaination. I'm just rambling and thinking out loud. haha). Would LOVE to see them get a hosting opportunity, but I'm not holding my breath. (in any case, given the numerous seeds within 400 miles, I'm quite sure they'll be playing within driving distance (unless they totally bomb and drop a couple of their 3 remaining regular season matches as well as a conference tourney game), and I plan on attending wherever they play) Northern Iowa and Marquette are so close to each other in RPI and both are highly likely to win their last 3. In retrospect - I think I should have gone with Marquette given they one the H2H. I do think UNI's path is better than Marquette. I don't know how the seeding for the MVC tournament will look - but if UNI can get 2 of Valpo/Illinois State/Bradley and avoid Missouri State or Loyola - their RPI could do very well if they win the tournament. With Missouri State hosting - it would be best to avoid them and their inferior overall record. Marquette has a more challenging path. Fortunately they will get St. Johns instead of Villanova or whoever finishes 4th. But they will have to win at Creighton or I think their seed chances are greatly diminished. I would guess the final 3 seeds are coming down to Creighton, Marquette, UNI, Purdue, Michigan, Baylor, Florida, or Oregon. Hard to see UCF not getting a seed at this point.
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Post by jayj79 on Nov 10, 2018 23:03:39 GMT -5
I don't know how the seeding for the MVC tournament will look - but if UNI can get 2 of Valpo/Illinois State/Bradley and avoid Missouri State or Loyola - their RPI could do very well if they win the tournament. With Missouri State hosting - it would be best to avoid them and their inferior overall record. UNI is likely to face the winner of Missouri State (9-7, 16-13) and Valparaiso (9-7, 22-9), so the Panthers would be Valpo fans in that quarterfinal. Illinois State is likely to face the winner of Bradley (12-5, 22-7) and either Loyola-Chicago (7-9, 15-13) or Drake (6-10, 18-13) Though if UNI drops one of their last two matches (@ Evansville and @ Indiana State) and ISU wins their sole remaining match @ Bradley, then UNI and ISU would swap places.
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Post by InTheKnow on Nov 11, 2018 0:43:31 GMT -5
Blue you do such a a great job!!
A very interesting team is Tulane. They have won their last 10 in a row. With a top 25 win. They sit at around 71 in rpi. They have 4 more matches and a chance at Cincinnati to get a 2nd top 25 win. What would their rpi end up being? Also, if they beat Cinci again Tulane will finish in 2nd place in the AAC. Interesting resume.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 11, 2018 8:12:34 GMT -5
Blue you do such a a great job!! A very interesting team is Tulane. They have won their last 10 in a row. With a top 25 win. They sit at around 71 in rpi. They have 4 more matches and a chance at Cincinnati to get a 2nd top 25 win. What would their rpi end up being? Also, if they beat Cinci again Tulane will finish in 2nd place in the AAC. Interesting resume. Their RPI Futures would be 51 if they win all 4. The problem will be beating Cincinnati will most likely drop Cincy below T25 and their T25 win turns into 2 T50 wins. If Cincy somehow stay in the T25, then the Futures would be 48.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 11, 2018 9:27:07 GMT -5
Below are some comments where the current RPI (Figstats) and RPI Futures are different.
The Top 5: BYU has now dropped to #5 in the RPI, but are #3 in RPI Futures. The issue with RPI Futures - is it sees a greater probability of Minnesota or Texas losing again. If Minnesota and Texas win out, it looks like BYU will finish #5 in RPI. BYU's quality of wins will trump Texas - so I think BYU will get a regional seed ahead of Texas even if they finish #5 in RPI. I still think Stanford will be #1 seed - and I can see 2-4 to be more up in the air. It sure looks like Illinois is going to finish #2 in RPI after last night's win.
Purdue: #13 in RPI, but #18 in Futures: This is all about the rest of their schedule being so tough (Nebraska, @ Illinois and Indiana). Futures has them only winning 1.6 of the final 4 matches.
Florida: #17 in RPI vs. #20 in Futures: The remaining schedule is 'fine' in terms of opponent w/l% - Futures has them only winning 3.5 of the last 5.
Penn State: #20 vs. #13: The remining schedule in terms of opponent w/l% is very strong. All 4 of their remaining games are at home. Even just winning 2 of the final 4 is going to put them ~ 16/17.
Saint Marys: RPI 38, Futures 44. The remaining schedule doesn't work very well - BYU looks like a loss and Santa Clara has a horrible record. San Diego doesn't have a great record and they are playing so good now that winning that game at home doesn't look real good.
Utah: #39 vs. #46: The remaining schedule doesn't work in their favor in terms of opponent w/l% - and they are projected to win less than half of their remaining matches - not a good combination for their RPI. Arizona and Colorado are in a similar situations.
Alabama: #49 RPI vs. #69 Futures. This is one of the biggest variances. Their remaining schedule is awful. Mississippi State has a horrible record. Arkansas and Ole Miss have records under water and Alabama is probably around a 50% of winning either of those matches. Texas A&M doesn't have a great record and that is not an easy match. Kentucky has the great record, but it is unlikely that Alabama wins this.
Maryland: #51 vs. #59: The remaining schedule is brutal with Illinois, Minnesota, and Nebraska. That leaves at Iowa as what looks like the only chance of a win. Pablo has them winning .60 of these final 4 - so winning one will improve on #59, but not all the way to #51 or even that close to it.
Wichita State: #52 vs. #58: The remaining opponent W/L% is just .454 (which is awful). If they win all 5 - then they may even beat their current #52, but these are not given matches for them.
Hawaii: #61 vs. #49: Home match wins over Davis and Irvine is going to move Hawaii's RPI. Here is the math: current projected opponent w/l% is .546 - adding the final two matches moves this to .551 adding .0013 to Hawaii's RPI. Hawaii's current w/l% is .666 and a couple more wins moves this to ..692 for a .0064 addition to the RPI.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 11, 2018 15:46:23 GMT -5
What's the deal with Cal Poly?
They are #16 in unmodified RPI - but #23 in actual RPI. Given that they are playing Fullerton and Riverside (the two worst teams in the Big West for RPI). Won't this mean a chance of them not finishing top 25?
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 11, 2018 15:48:56 GMT -5
What's the deal with Cal Poly? They are #16 in unmodified RPI - but #23 in actual RPI. Given that they are playing Fullerton and Riverside (the two worst teams in the Big West for RPI). Won't this mean a chance of them not finishing top 25? There's quite a large gap from 23 down to 24.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 12, 2018 8:14:46 GMT -5
I have it now as:
Last 4 In: Saint Marys, Arizona, Hawaii, Western Kentucky. Next 4 In: San Diego, Utah, Dayton, Duke
First 4 Out: Indiana, Maryland, Colorado, LMU Next 4 Out: Kansas State, Notre Dame, Princeton, Tulane
For seeds:
Last 4 In: Penn State, Creighton, Baylor, Northern Iowa First 5 Out: Marquette, Florida, Purdue, Oregon, Washington
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Post by FreeBall on Nov 12, 2018 10:29:36 GMT -5
I have it now as: Last 4 In: Saint Marys, Arizona, Hawaii, Western Kentucky. Next 4 In: San Diego, Utah, Dayton, Duke First 4 Out: Indiana, Maryland, Colorado, LMU Next 4 Out: Kansas State, Notre Dame, Princeton, Tulane For seeds: Last 4 In: Penn State, Creighton, Baylor, Northern Iowa First 5 Out: Marquette, Florida, Purdue, Oregon, Washington I'm not sure I understand your terminology. Logically, wouldn't "Next 4 In" and "First Four Out" be the same thing? Or, are you saying "Last 4 In" are at-large bids 29-32 and "Next 4 In" are at-large bids 25-28?
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 12, 2018 10:46:42 GMT -5
I have it now as: Last 4 In: Saint Marys, Arizona, Hawaii, Western Kentucky. Next 4 In: San Diego, Utah, Dayton, Duke First 4 Out: Indiana, Maryland, Colorado, LMU Next 4 Out: Kansas State, Notre Dame, Princeton, Tulane For seeds: Last 4 In: Penn State, Creighton, Baylor, Northern Iowa First 5 Out: Marquette, Florida, Purdue, Oregon, Washington I'm not sure I understand your terminology. Logically, wouldn't "Next 4 In" and "First Four Out" be the same thing? Or, are you saying "Last 4 In" are at-large bids 29-32 and "Next 4 In" are at-large bids 25-28? I may have not have writing this right:
Last 4 In = the 4 teams making the tournament 29-32 (not in any order) Next 4 In = at large 25-28
First 4 out = not making the tournament - 33-36 Next 4 out = 37-40
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Post by Millennium on Nov 12, 2018 11:05:34 GMT -5
Here is my bracket after Friday's matches looking at RPI Futures. Marquette and Purdue are first out for seed. 1. Stanford: Saint Marys, Duke, Howard 16. Baylor: Oregon, Rice, UT Rio Grande Valley 8. Wisconsin: Illinois State, UCLA, Bowling Green 9. Pittsburgh: Michigan, James Madison, VCU 4. Illinois: Cincinnati, Louisville, Austin Peay 13. UCF: Florida, Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast 5. Texas: Texas State, Stephen F. Austin, LIU Brooklyn 12. Penn State: Syracuse, Dayton, Stony Brook 2. BYU: Colorado State, Utah, Idaho 15. Northern Iowa: Marquette, Kansas, Yale 7. Kentucky: Purdue, East Tennessee State, Alabama A&M 10. Nebraska: Missouri, Kansas State, American 3. Minnesota: Tennessee, Arizona, Green Bay 14. Creighton: Washington, San Diego, Denver 6. USC: Cal Poly, Pepperdine, Rider 11. Washington State: South Carolina, Hawaii, High Point Last 4 in: Arizona, Utah, Hawaii, Kansas State First 4 out: LMU, Colorado, Yale, Western Kentucky, Princeton Next 4 out: Indiana, Wichita State, Miami, Notre Dame
This is a nice, well balanced bracket. I really like it.
Unfortunately, I doubt it plays out this way with the committee, though.
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