bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,348 
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 28, 2018 17:00:08 GMT -5
I didn't see this posted anywhere - here are the Pablo odds on winning the subregional and making the sweet 16. % chance of winning the 1st round match in parenthesis.
96.6% - Stanford (100.0%)
2.5% - Loyola Marymount (60.8%)
0.9% - Duke (39.2%)
0% - Alabama State (0%)
53.4% - Washington State (80.6%)
26.1% - Tennessee (59.6%)
14.2% - Colorado State (40.4%)
6.4% - Northern Arizona (19.4%)
63.3% - Creighton (88.9%)
25.7% - Washington (66.9%)
8.0% - Saint Mary's (33.1%)
2.9% - South Dakota (11.1%)
88.1% - Penn State (99.4%)
9.3% - Syracuse (65.1%)
2.6% - Yale (34.9%)
0.1% - Howard (0.6%)
76.8% - Texas (90.8%)
9.9% - Rice (50.0%)
9.9% - Texas State (50.0%)
3.4% - Stephen F. Austin (9.2%)
72.9% - Pittsburgh (98.7%)
26.3% - Michigan (87.4%)
0.7% - Navy (12.6%)
0.1% - Iona (1.3%)
34.6% - Florida (57.0%)
30.7% - UCF (64.9%)
23.2% - Florida State (43.0%)
11.4% - Florida Gulf Coast (35.1%)
87.9% - BYU (98.1%)
9.3% - Utah (66.5%)
2.4% - Denver (33.5%)
0.4% - Stony Brook (1.9%)
84.4% - Illinois (96.9%)
11.4% - Louisville (65.2%)
3.4% - Dayton (34.8%)
0.8% - Eastern Michigan (3.1%)
59.6% - Marquette (82.4%)
18.5% - Illinois State (52.8%)
15.4% - Cincinnati (47.2%)
6.5% - High Point (17.6%)
54.7% - USC (90.9%)
34.2% - Cal Poly (69.1%)
9.8% - San Diego (30.9%)
1.3% - Samford (9.1%)
75.7% - Wisconsin (96.1%)
15.6% - Pepperdine (59.4%)
8.0% - Northern Iowa (8.0%)(40.6%)
0.7% - Green Bay (3.9%)
82.8% - Nebraska (95.6%)
8.8% - Arizona (52.6%)
7.2% - Missouri (47.4%)
1.2% - Hofstra (4.4%)
86.0% - Kentucky (97.7%)
9.8% - Purdue (62.3%)
3.7% - East Tennessee State (37.7%)
0.5% - Murray State (2.3%)
64.2% - Oregon (87.2%)
20.5% - Baylor (58.8%)
11.4% - Hawaii (41.2%)
3.9% - New Mexico State (12.8%)
87.8% - Minnesota (99.7%)
8.6% - Colorado (60.6%)
3.6% - South Carolina (39.4%)
0.0% - Bryant (0.3%)
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,348
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 28, 2018 17:01:07 GMT -5
And here it is in order by % chance to win the 2nd round.
1. 96.6% - Stanford (100.0%)
2. 88.1% - Penn State (99.4%)
3. 87.9% - BYU (98.1%)
4. 87.8% - Minnesota (99.7%)
5. 86.0% - Kentucky (97.7%)
6. 84.4% - Illinois (96.9%)
7. 82.8% - Nebraska (95.6%)
8. 76.8% - Texas (90.8%)
9. 75.7% - Wisconsin (96.1%)
10. 72.9% - Pittsburgh (98.7%)
11. 64.2% - Oregon (87.2%)
12. 63.3% - Creighton (88.9%)
13. 59.6% - Marquette (82.4%)
14. 54.7% - USC (90.9%)
15. 53.4% - Washington State (80.6%)
16. 34.6% - Florida (57.0%)
17. 34.2% - Cal Poly (69.1%)
18. 30.7% - UCF (64.9%)
19. 26.3% - Michigan (87.4%)
20. 26.1% - Tennessee (59.6%)
21. 25.7% - Washington (66.9%)
22. 23.2% - Florida State (43.0%)
23. 20.5% - Baylor (58.8%)
24. 18.5% - Illinois State (52.8%)
25. 15.6% - Pepperdine (59.4%)
26. 15.4% - Cincinnati (47.2%)
27. 14.2% - Colorado State (40.4%)
28. 11.4% - Louisville (65.2%)
29. 11.4% - Hawaii (41.2%)
30. 11.4% - Florida Gulf Coast (35.1%)
31. 9.9% - Texas State (50.0%)
32. 9.9% - Rice (50.0%)
33. 9.8% - San Diego (30.9%)
34. 9.8% - Purdue (62.3%)
35. 9.3% - Utah (66.5%)
36. 9.3% - Syracuse (65.1%)
37. 8.8% - Arizona (52.6%)
38. 8.6% - Colorado (60.6%)
39. 8.0% - Saint Mary's (33.1%)
40. 8.0% - Northern Iowa (8.0%)
41. 7.2% - Missouri (47.4%)
42. 6.5% - High Point (17.6%)
43. 6.4% - Northern Arizona (19.4%)
44. 3.9% - New Mexico State (12.8%)
45. 3.7% - East Tennesee State (37.7%)
46. 3.6% - South Carolina (39.4%)
47. 3.4% - Stephen F. Austin (9.2%)
48. 3.4% - Dayton (34.8%)
49. 2.9% - South Dakota (11.1%)
50. 2.6% - Yale (34.9%)
51. 2.5% - Loyola Marymount (60.8%)
52. 2.4% - Denver (33.5%)
53. 1.3% - Samford (9.1%)
54. 1.2% - Hofstra (4.4%)
55. 0.9% - Duke (39.2%)
56. 0.8% - Eastern Michigan (3.1%)
57. 0.7% - Navy (12.6%)
58. 0.7% - Green Bay (3.9%)
59. 0.5% - Murray State (2.3%)
60. 0.4% - Stony Brook (1.9%)
61. 0.1% - Iona (1.3%)
62. 0.1% - Howard (0.6%)
63. 0.0% - Bryant (0.3%)
64. 0% - Alabama State (0%)
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Post by gophervbfan on Nov 28, 2018 17:38:17 GMT -5
No love for Alabama State? Pablo couldn't work its way to give them a 0.1% chance. Dang!!
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Post by volleyjeep on Nov 28, 2018 17:47:48 GMT -5
No love for Alabama State? Pablo couldn't work its way to give them a 0.1% chance. Dang!! A true underdog! |
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Post by pavsec5row10 on Nov 28, 2018 17:59:38 GMT -5
No love for Alabama State? Pablo couldn't work its way to give them a 0.1% chance. Dang!! I am wondering how Bryant gets a 0.3% chance of beating Minnesota. |
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Post by ndodge on Nov 28, 2018 18:08:31 GMT -5
Not much chance given for Purdue -- a lot lower than I would have thought.
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Post by oldmanred on Nov 28, 2018 18:10:42 GMT -5
No love for Alabama State? Pablo couldn't work its way to give them a 0.1% chance. Dang!! I am wondering how Bryant gets a 0.3% chance of beating Minnesota. I guess if they played a 1000 times; Bryant would win 3 times  GO HUSKERS |
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Post by hammer on Nov 28, 2018 18:10:56 GMT -5
No love for Alabama State? Pablo couldn't work its way to give them a 0.1% chance. Dang!! A true underdog! That's brutal and they appear to be the ultimate cupcake |
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Post by tomclen on Nov 28, 2018 18:24:40 GMT -5
% chance of winning the 1st round match in parenthesis.
96.6% - Stanford (100.0%)
2.5% - Loyola Marymount (60.8%)
0.9% - Duke (39.2%)
0% - Alabama State (0%)
I'm okay, almost, with the 100% chance of Stanford taking out Alabama State. But, man, if I was running a sports book in Vegas, there's no way I'd base odds on that 2.5% and 0.9% chance of LMU and Duke knocking off Stanford. In fact, if someone wants to give me 40 to 1 odds on LMU winning that sub-regional, I've got $100 with your name on it. |
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 28, 2018 18:28:09 GMT -5
I didn't see this posted anywhere I calculated these already ... and then I only bothered to post them for the PAC-12 teams. |
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Post by gopherhim on Nov 28, 2018 18:28:13 GMT -5
75.7% - Wisconsin (96.1%)
15.6% - Pepperdine (59.4%)
8.0% - Northern Iowa (8.0%)
0.7% - Green Bay (3.9%)
Thanks for posting this! At the risk of coming across as a nitpick, methinks there was a transcription error in the odds for the Pepperdine v. UNI match. That or Rettke is scheduled to come out on the court between sets 2 and 3 to hype up the crowd for the Wisconsin match that follows this one and there's a 32.6% chance that confusion results and tournament directors just give her the win. Would complicate things if the second round match is Wisconsin v. Rettke. I'd tune in! |
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 28, 2018 18:29:21 GMT -5
% chance of winning the 1st round match in parenthesis.
96.6% - Stanford (100.0%)
2.5% - Loyola Marymount (60.8%)
0.9% - Duke (39.2%)
0% - Alabama State (0%)
I'm okay, almost, with the 100% chance of Stanford taking out Alabama State. But, man, if I was running a sports book in Vegas, there's no way I'd base odds on that 2.5% and 0.9% chance of LMU and Duke knocking off Stanford. In fact, if someone wants to give me 40 to 1 odds on LMU winning that sub-regional, I've got $100 with your name on it. Seriously? I could use $100. |
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Post by HawaiiVB on Nov 28, 2018 18:32:04 GMT -5
bump
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Post by tomclen on Nov 28, 2018 19:00:46 GMT -5
By the by, why is it that the team with the 2nd best odds of winning their sub-regional is not the 2nd best seed? In fact, THAT team is not even a top 4 seed. Why does THAT team always get this friggin' pass to a regional?  |
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Post by Fight On! on Nov 28, 2018 19:22:55 GMT -5
Poor USC.
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