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Post by ay2013 on Sept 30, 2019 13:44:42 GMT -5
RPI and rankings shouldn’t consider injuries, you should have to earn those. But the injury situation does explain some of the head scratching... I believe the selection committee considers injuries.
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Post by ay2013 on Sept 30, 2019 14:00:18 GMT -5
I think the Pac-12 contignency in the NCAA tournament is shaping up a bit more clearly.
I see two locks right now for a tournament bid: Stanford and Washington. Both have the projected win-loss record to be tournament eligible and a high SOS to safely be in the tournament. Even though Stanford is going through some bumps, their long term outlook still looks rather comfortable for a top 4 seed and regional host. Washington also looks very good for a seed. Can they get to a top 4 seed discussion? not out of the realm of possibility. I think they'll need no more than 5 losses on the year (3 more) for their own credentials, will need Wisconsin, Illinois, Creighton, to stay in the top 25 RPI, and would be better help by another Pac-12 team to be in the top 25 RPI come season end, and will probably need some help from other schools jockeying for that top 4 seed to drop some additional matches. At this point I think Baylor, Texas, and Stanford look like the 3 others.
In, pending eligibility: The Oregons, The Mountains and the LA schools. This is where the Pac-12 is going to make or break our bid count. All of these programs have strong enough SOS to weather a lot of losses...and with the conference being so crazy this year, there will be a lot of losses among the teams. The question is whether or not these teams take too many losses. They have to be .500 or better to be tournament eligible. Any of these schools who make it .500+ will probably be in. But that's a tall order. I think at least two of these schools don't make .500.
In, for now, but things could change VERY quickly- WSU, Cal. The record darlings of the conference so far this year, but it has come at expense of their SOS. It sucks, big time, and if these programs get caught up with 12+ losses on the season, their SOS will probably put their RPI outside of the usual bid range. Right now their future projects has them under 10 losses on the season, but if they start cresting over that, they run in danger of the non-conference slate biting them.
Outside looking in- Arizonas: Their SOS is ok, but call me a pessimist, but I'm just seeing a lot of losses in their future.
Right now I'm gonna project only 1 of the Oregon schools make it in, both mountain schools make it in, and only 1 of the LA schools make it in, WSU and Cal make it in, joining Washington and Stanford for 8 bids.
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Post by dunninla3 on Sept 30, 2019 14:04:28 GMT -5
RPI and rankings shouldn’t consider injuries, you should have to earn those. But the injury situation does explain some of the head scratching... I believe the selection committee considers injuries. I think they consider momentum as seen in results. They don't care what causes the momentum -- injury, coaching change, internal discord, etc. If an injury makes a team play worse for a time, then the player is back, now they are getting better results, that is positive momentum. The reverse of course if the player has not returned, and the team continues with poorer results -- negative momentum. I don't think the committee cares what *causes* momentum, only that it is demonstrated on the court. Because it is equally possible a great player is injured, then returns, but the results don't improve.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Sept 30, 2019 14:08:16 GMT -5
ASU 2015 getting in makes me think otherwise. They are not going to deviate wildly from RPI for an in/out decision based on injuries. It may be considered for how certain teams are seeded, and I guess maybe for regional hosts but don't quote me on that.
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Post by bigfan on Sept 30, 2019 14:10:47 GMT -5
Even though Stanford is going through some bumps, their long term outlook still looks rather comfortable for a top 4 seed and regional host. I think they'll need no more than 5 losses on the year (3 more) for their own credentials,. Stanford will have 4-5 losses. Do you really think they care if they get a top 4 seed this year. They DON'T. They have won at Texas, Nebraska, Penn St and Florida. They play better on the road.
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Post by Fight On! on Sept 30, 2019 14:13:31 GMT -5
RPI and rankings shouldn’t consider injuries, you should have to earn those. But the injury situation does explain some of the head scratching... I believe the selection committee considers injuries. I think more so in light of an injury that would lead them to drop a bubble team that just had an injury and likely won’t compete well in the tournament. I am not sure they give a pass on losses that occurred when the team had an injury. Then again, I am no expert.
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Post by mikegarrison on Sept 30, 2019 14:21:35 GMT -5
I believe the selection committee considers injuries. I think more so in light of an injury that would lead them to drop a bubble team that just had an injury and likely won’t compete well in the tournament. I am not sure they give a pass on losses that occurred when the team had an injury. Then again, I am no expert. That's also my understanding.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2019 14:45:12 GMT -5
pac-12.com/article/2019/09/30/pac-12-announces-volleyball-players-weekOffensive: Kara Bajema, SR, OH, Washington (Lynden, Wash.) Defensive: Grace Massey, JR, DS, Oregon State (Beaverton, Ore.) Freshman: Kylie Robinson, FR, Oregon (Upland, Calf.) Congrats to all and 3rd week in a row for Bajema!
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Post by ay2013 on Sept 30, 2019 14:55:40 GMT -5
Even though Stanford is going through some bumps, their long term outlook still looks rather comfortable for a top 4 seed and regional host. I think they'll need no more than 5 losses on the year (3 more) for their own credentials,. Stanford will have 4-5 losses. Do you really think they care if they get a top 4 seed this year. They DON'T. They have won at Texas, Nebraska, Penn St and Florida. They play better on the road. I think this is a misquote. The last sentence re 5 losses on the year was for Washington maybe getting a top 4 seed.
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Post by dunninla3 on Oct 1, 2019 17:17:16 GMT -5
Here is my prediction for end of season Pac 12 Standings:
Stanford: 17-3 UDub: 14-6 Berkeley: 13-7 WSU: 13-7 Oregon: 10-10 Utah: 10-10 USC: 9-11 UCLA: 9-11 ASU: 8-12 Arizona: 7-13 Colorado: 6-14 OSU: 5-15
I think Stanford -> USC (7 teams) qualify for NCAAs, and that UCLA -> OSU (5 teams) don't.
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Post by bigfan on Oct 1, 2019 17:35:33 GMT -5
I believe the selection committee considers injuries. I think more so in light of an injury that would lead them to drop a bubble team that just had an injury and likely won’t compete well in the tournament. I am not sure they give a pass on losses that occurred when the team had an injury. Then again, I am no expert. I love your new Avatar. Staying classy.
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Post by Fight On! on Oct 11, 2019 11:43:41 GMT -5
Marina is no longer on the USC roster.
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Post by ay2013 on Oct 11, 2019 12:43:12 GMT -5
I think this is make or break week for 4 teams looking for a tournament bid. All eyes should be on the mountain schools as USC-UCLA-Colorado struggle to find a winning record to become tournament eligible. I think both UCLA and USC can sew up their tournament chances going 2-0 at the mountains, and would be in decent shape going 1-1. Utah looks much better positioned to finish with a winning record by season end but Colorado cannot afford to go 0-2 this weekend. If that happens they aren't gonna make .500 on the year.
Additionally, Oregon/Washington State could be a deal breaker for both. For Oregon, I believe they need to find 10 more wins to be tournament eligible. Even if they win their 7 remaining home matches (that seems like a stretch considering teams like UW and the LA schools are still coming), they'd need to find 3 road wins. Winning at Washington State doesn't fix all their problems, but it would put the ducks a bit back on track towards .500. For Washington State, as I said in my initial post re tournament bid allocation, they are on shaky ground. A lofty preseason record doesn't change the fact that their SOS is absolute crap. They cannot afford to lose too many matches. 9 losses is surely on the bubble for them and 10+ losses probably leaves them out of the tournament. They gotta take care of business at home.
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Post by hammer on Oct 11, 2019 12:53:37 GMT -5
I think this is make or break week for 4 teams looking for a tournament bid. All eyes should be on the mountain schools as USC-UCLA-Colorado struggle to find a winning record to become tournament eligible. I think both UCLA and USC can sew up their tournament chances going 2-0 at the mountains, and would be in decent shape going 1-1. Utah looks much better positioned to finish with a winning record by season end but Colorado cannot afford to go 0-2 this weekend. If that happens they aren't gonna make .500 on the year. Additionally, Oregon/Washington State could be a deal breaker for both. For Oregon, I believe they need to find 10 more wins to be tournament eligible. Even if they win their 7 remaining home matches (that seems like a stretch considering teams like UW and the LA schools are still coming), they'd need to find 3 road wins. Winning at Washington State doesn't fix all their problems, but it would put the ducks a bit back on track towards .500. For Washington State, as I said in my initial post re tournament bid allocation, they are on shaky ground. A lofty preseason record doesn't change the fact that their SOS is absolute crap. They cannot afford to lose too many matches. 9 losses is surely on the bubble for them and 10+ losses probably leaves them out of the tournament. They gotta take care of business at home. Just took a look at WSU's schedule, and they look like a solid favorite in five of their remaining home matches, a slight to moderate favorite in two others, and an underdog in two others. Of course, this is the topsey turvy Pac-12 where anything goes, but being on The Palouse (Bohler Gym) might be the best home court advantage in the Pac. They also have four road matches that they have a decent shot at winning, namely ASU, AZ, Oregon, OSU.
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Post by getbusy on Oct 11, 2019 15:17:05 GMT -5
California schools are going to see a major downturn in recruits in the future. Stanford will remain good because it's Stanford but the others no way. The state is falling apart with traffic and crime. Parents just don't want to send their kids there. As for this year, I think you are right on target for the tournament. It will be interesting to see if any other conference can compete with the Big Ten? With girls volleyball growing over 200 percent there is a lot of talent now coming into the sport. You can see even this year what a few good players on lower D1 schools can do! Fun!
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