RPI Futures Week 10 (11/4/19)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI based on the win probability of the remaining games on the schedule per Pablo rating.

I have made a change this week and projected our many of the conference tournament matches.

RPI Futures Rank. (Last Week Rank)  School - Conference (projected wins and losses rounded) - RPI Score/Pct - RPI Futures Strength of Schedule Rank

1. (1) Baylor - Big 12 (24-2) - .7080 - 9

2. (2) Texas - Big 12 (21-3) - .6931 - 5

3. (3) Wisconsin - Big Ten (23-5) - .6842 - 1

4. (4) Pittsburgh - Atlantic Coast (28-2) - .6828 - 41

5. (6) Stanford - Pac 12 (22-6) - .6725 - 7

6. (9) Nebraska - Big Ten (24-5) - .6598 - 26

7. (10) Marquette - Big East (28-4) - .6598 - 33

8. (11) Florida - Southeastern Conference (24-5) - .6596 - 22

9. (13) Texas A&M - Southeastern Conference (22-6) - .6592 - 10

10. (8) Washington - Pac 12 (23-7) - .6575 - 16

11. (12) Minnesota - Big Ten (23-5) - .6574 - 20

12. (5) Kentucky - Southeastern Conference (21-8) - .6565 - 4

13. (7) Rice - Conference USA (27-2) - .6555 - 60

14. (16) Hawaii - Big West (23-4) - .6528 - 50

15. (15) Creighton - Big East (25-5) - .6461 - 46

16. (17) BYU - West Coast (25-4) - .6400 - 56

17. (19) Penn State - Big Ten (23-6) - .6355 - 39

18. (21) UCF - American Athletic (23-7) - .6308 - 27

19. (20) Colorado State - Mountain West (28-1) - .6293 - 119

20. (18) Missouri - Southeastern Conference (20-8) - .6272 - 19

21. (14) Louisville - Atlantic Coast (19-9) - .6265 - 15

22. (23) Utah - Pac 12 (20-11) - .6263 - 13

23. (24) UCLA - Pac 12 (18-11) - .6246 - 3

24. (22) Western Kentucky - Conference USA (29-3) - .6244 - 105

25. (26) Cincinnati - American Athletic (24-7) - .6234 - 51

26. (27) USC - Pac 12 (18-12) - .6213 - 2

27. (32) San Diego - West Coast (23-6) - .6184 - 64

28. (31) Florida State - Atlantic Coast (20-8) - .6167 - 24

29. (25) Purdue - Big Ten (20-9) - .6165 - 31

30. (34) Georgia - Southeastern Conference (21-8) - .6159 - 37

31. (28) UCSB - Big West (23-4) - .6142 - 98

32. (33) Stephen F. Austin - Southland (28-1) - .6103 - 201

33. (29) Oklahoma - Big 12 (19-8) - .6097 - 29

34. (30) Cal - Pac 12 (22-8) - .6045 - 70

35. (41) South Dakota - The Summit (28-2) - .6033 - 202

36. (35) Texas State - Sun Belt (24-9) - .6028 - 52

37. (36) Cal Poly - Big West (20-8) - .6006 - 59

38. (40) Towson - Colonial (28-2) - .6004 - 192

39. (37) Notre Dame - Atlantic Coast (19-9) - .6002 - 43

40. (39) Iowa State - Big 12 (18-10) - .5971 - 23

41. (38) Washington State - Pac 12 (24-8) - .5953 - 89

42. (54) Wright State - Horizon (24-6) - .5933 - 123

43. (48) Michigan - Big Ten (19-11) - .5916 - 44

44. (42) Illinois - Big Ten (17-12) - .5890 - 21

45. (43) Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley (23-11) - .5889 - 62

46. (45) Dayton - Atlantic 10 (21-9) - .5866 - 80

47. (46) Green Bay - Horizon (21-9) - .5858 - 71

48. (47) Milwaukee - Horizon (27-5) - .5839 - 183

49. (53) VCU - Atlantic 10 (23-7) - .5836 - 114

50. (52) South Carolina - Southeastern Conference (18-12) - .5829 - 34

51. (51) Florida Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun (27-3) - .5804 - 240

52. (49) SMU - American Athletic (19-9) - .5790 - 76

53. (44) Ole Miss - Southeastern Conference (16-13) - .5777 - 35

54. (57) Pepperdine - West Coast (17-12) - .5770 - 40

55. (55) Coastal Carolina - Sun Belt (24-7) - .5738 - 154

56. (63) American - Patriot (23-8) - .5705 - 125

57. (50) Arizona State - Pac 12 (16-15) - .5703 - 25

58. (59) Villanova - Big East (22-9) - .5702 - 99

59. (58) James Madison - Colonial (19-9) - .5689 - 93

60. (66) Georgia Tech - Atlantic Coast (20-9) - .5661 - 102

61. (71) Colgate - Patriot (22-8) - .5654 - 142

62. (64) Ohio State - Big Ten (15-17) - .5648 - 14

63. (56) Yale - Ivy (15-8) - .5635 - 84

64. (67) New Mexico State - Western Athletic (25-5) - .5625 - 249

65. (75) Troy University - Sun Belt (23-8) - .5619 - 169

66. (65) North Carolina - Atlantic Coast (15-13) - .5605 - 49

67. (61) Tennessee - Southeastern Conference (14-14) - .5598 - 30

68. (92) Grand Canyon - Western Athletic (24-6) - .5594 - 231

69. (60) Tulane - American Athletic (20-11) - .5588 - 106

70. (68) Northern Kentucky - Horizon (15-14) - .5583 - 45

71. (69) Tulsa - American Athletic (16-14) - .5580 - 47

72. (78) St. Johns - Big East (20-12) - .5573 - 92

73. (74) Florida Atlantic - Conference USA (16-11) - .5571 - 75

74. (93) Colorado - Pac 12 (12-18) - .5570 - 11

75. (70) Samford - Southern (20-7) - .5563 - 187

76. (77) Wyoming - Mountain West (19-10) - .5563 - 109

77. (79) Illinois-Chicago - Horizon (22-10) - .5561 - 129

78. (72) Bowling Green - Mid-American (16-12) - .5559 - 77

79. (94) Princeton - Ivy (16-7) - .5544 - 155

80. (84) Denver - The Summit (21-9) - .5540 - 168

81. (83) Winthrop - Big South (23-5) - .5538 - 262

82. (73) UTSA - Conference USA (16-12) - .5533 - 68

83. (62) Michigan State - Big Ten (17-13) - .5524 - 72

84. (100) Oregon - Pac 12 (11-18) - .5510 - 8

85. (80) Boise State - Mountain West (18-11) - .5508 - 103

86. (90) High Point - Big South (22-11) - .5489 - 128

87. (85) Texas Tech - Big 12 (17-13) - .5483 - 85

88. (88) East Tennessee State - Southern (23-5) - .5482 - 263

89. (82) Arizona - Pac 12 (15-17) - .5479 - 38

90. (98) Miami-OH - Mid-American (18-9) - .5467 - 137

91. (89) Cornell - Ivy (18-5) - .5456 - 256

92. (76) Iowa - Big Ten (11-20) - .5456 - 6

93. (81) LMU - West Coast (16-14) - .5453 - 74

94. (95) Army - Patriot (20-11) - .5438 - 156

95. (86) Illinois State - Missouri Valley (20-12) - .5436 - 134

96. (91) LSU - Southeastern Conference (14-14) - .5435 - 57

97. (101) Marshall - Conference USA (17-11) - .5432 - 115

98. (87) Kennesaw State - Atlantic Sun (18-10) - .5412 - 160

99. (106) Northern Colorado - Big Sky (21-9) - .5403 - 226

100. (103) Weber State - Big Sky (22-7) - .5402 - 245

101. (102) Loyola-Chicago - Missouri Valley (22-11) - .5398 - 178

102. (99) Houston - American Athletic (17-15) - .5384 - 81

103. (113) Alabama - Southeastern Conference (15-14) - .5358 - 83

104. (97) Santa Clara - West Coast (19-12) - .5353 - 159

105. (143) Syracuse - Atlantic Coast (11-14) - .5351 - 48

106. (96) Indiana - Big Ten (15-18) - .5348 - 55

107. (129) North Texas - Conference USA (17-11) - .5338 - 147

108. (114) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - Southland (18-11) - .5336 - 163

109. (110) Kansas City - Western Athletic (16-12) - .5331 - 104

110. (112) Boston College - Atlantic Coast (21-10) - .5329 - 229

111. (108) Saint Louis - Atlantic 10 (17-12) - .5324 - 122

112. (107) Akron - Mid-American (18-9) - .5299 - 210

113. (116) Central Michigan - Mid-American (22-6) - .5297 - 290

114. (105) Temple - American Athletic (13-14) - .5291 - 67

115. (125) Hofstra - Colonial (19-11) - .5288 - 184

116. (104) TCU - Big 12 (9-17) - .5288 - 17

117. (118) Morehead State - Ohio Valley (22-7) - .5284 - 277

118. (120) Liberty - Atlantic Sun (18-10) - .5258 - 199

119. (111) Oakland - Horizon (15-14) - .5255 - 101

120. (130) Northwestern - Big Ten (12-20) - .5253 - 36

121. (124) Wichita State - American Athletic (9-19) - .5248 - 18

122. (131) Miami-FL - Atlantic Coast (11-15) - .5242 - 61

123. (132) South Alabama - Sun Belt (21-11) - .5240 - 224

124. (121) Fairfield - Metro Atlantic (22-5) - .5236 - 303

125. (109) Ohio - Mid-American (16-13) - .5235 - 112

126. (115) Maryland - Big Ten (14-18) - .5235 - 65

127. (135) Northwestern State - Southland (20-10) - .5234 - 238

128. (144) Rutgers - Big Ten (9-22) - .5233 - 12

129. (133) Navy - Patriot (17-12) - .5230 - 176

130. (134) Ball State - Mid-American (16-12) - .5229 - 132

131. (128) Sam Houston State - Southland (16-12) - .5227 - 136

132. (127) Houston Baptist - Southland (18-13) - .5205 - 164

133. (126) Oregon State - Pac 12 (11-20) - .5205 - 28

134. (137) La Salle - Atlantic 10 (15-13) - .5204 - 111

135. (148) UT Arlington - Sun Belt (17-12) - .5193 - 171

136. (140) Duke - Atlantic Coast (12-19) - .5190 - 54

137. (123) UNLV - Mountain West (17-12) - .5183 - 189

138. (122) Saint Marys - West Coast (11-17) - .5180 - 58

139. (138) Western Michigan - Mid-American (15-13) - .5162 - 140

140. (142) Robert Morris - Northeast (26-3) - .5162 - 321

141. (147) West Virginia - Big 12 (13-16) - .5161 - 86

142. (119) Clemson - Atlantic Coast (13-16) - .5158 - 82

143. (139) Omaha - The Summit (18-14) - .5153 - 166

144. (136) UC Davis - Big West (16-13) - .5135 - 162

145. (164) San Diego State - Mountain West (15-14) - .5131 - 131

146. (141) UT Rio Grande Valley - Western Athletic (16-15) - .5131 - 117

147. (165) Nevada - Mountain West (19-11) - .5121 - 236

148. (158) Southeast Missouri - Ohio Valley (21-9) - .5105 - 283

149. (168) East Carolina - American Athletic (19-11) - .5098 - 251

150. (161) Cleveland State - Horizon (9-18) - .5097 - 42

151. (150) UTEP - Conference USA (13-15) - .5093 - 95

152. (169) Bradley - Missouri Valley (15-16) - .5093 - 126

153. (145) Long Beach State - Big West (10-18) - .5090 - 53

154. (154) Columbia - Ivy (13-11) - .5090 - 170

155. (157) Murray State - Ohio Valley (17-11) - .5090 - 241

156. (146) Kansas - Big 12 (8-18) - .5089 - 32

157. (163) NC State - Atlantic Coast (11-19) - .5078 - 63

158. (149) Northern Arizona - Big Sky (18-12) - .5077 - 244

159. (152) Jacksonville State - Ohio Valley (18-10) - .5075 - 259

160. (117) Arkansas State - Sun Belt (16-13) - .5063 - 208

161. (162) George Washington - Atlantic 10 (16-13) - .5054 - 190

162. (171) Cal State Northridge - Big West (12-16) - .5053 - 91

163. (151) Sacramento State - Big Sky (15-16) - .5042 - 121

164. (159) Utah Valley - Western Athletic (12-18) - .5038 - 88

165. (160) Pacific - West Coast (15-15) - .5026 - 151

166. (176) Western Carolina - Southern (18-11) - .5016 - 266

167. (153) Portland - West Coast (13-16) - .5012 - 130

168. (156) North Dakota State - The Summit (13-16) - .5004 - 120

169. (172) Xavier - Big East (12-16) - .5002 - 97

170. (166) Idaho - Big Sky (16-14) - .4993 - 203

171. (155) UAB - Conference USA (13-14) - .4993 - 149

172. (182) UNCW - Colonial (16-13) - .4989 - 216

173. (174) Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun (14-13) - .4980 - 214

174. (173) Northeastern - Colonial (15-15) - .4971 - 185

175. (184) Butler - Big East (13-17) - .4963 - 113

176. (186) Louisiana-Lafayette - Sun Belt (13-17) - .4959 - 133

177. (202) Brown - Ivy (13-11) - .4959 - 232

178. (189) Cal Baptist - Western Athletic (13-16) - .4955 - 127

179. (198) Purdue Fort Wayne - The Summit (18-14) - .4947 - 242

180. (188) Arkansas - Southeastern Conference (10-20) - .4939 - 69

181. (183) Kansas State - Big 12 (9-19) - .4930 - 73

182. (170) Albany - America East (13-11) - .4927 - 250

183. (195) Buffalo - Mid-American (10-18) - .4924 - 90

184. (175) Loyola University Maryland - Patriot (14-17) - .4918 - 146

185. (179) Southeastern Louisiana - Southland (14-16) - .4916 - 188

186. (206) Middle Tennessee - Conference USA (13-17) - .4913 - 152

187. (181) New Hampshire - America East (17-8) - .4912 - 299

188. (194) Cal State Fullerton - Big West (13-14) - .4903 - 195

189. (196) Memphis - American Athletic (16-12) - .4902 - 264

190. (178) Appalachian State - Sun Belt (11-19) - .4893 - 96

191. (197) Mississippi State - Southeastern Conference (14-16) - .4889 - 186

192. (199) Howard - Mid-Eastern (18-11) - .4887 - 284

193. (167) Fresno State - Mountain West (15-15) - .4885 - 204

194. (190) Virginia - Atlantic Coast (12-19) - .4872 - 116

195. (180) Louisiana Tech - Conference USA (14-14) - .4866 - 215

196. (177) Florida International - Conference USA (11-15) - .4855 - 139

197. (187) Evansville - Missouri Valley (17-13) - .4847 - 269

198. (192) Charlotte - Conference USA (15-16) - .4834 - 211

199. (205) Georgia State - Sun Belt (10-17) - .4830 - 107

200. (201) Valparaiso - Missouri Valley (13-20) - .4828 - 124

201. (191) Youngstown State - Horizon (9-20) - .4824 - 79

202. (185) DePaul - Big East (13-17) - .4822 - 167

203. (216) Kent State - Mid-American (14-14) - .4817 - 233

204. (213) Harvard - Ivy (6-17) - .4816 - 66

205. (193) Lehigh - Patriot (15-16) - .4809 - 217

206. (214) Wofford - Southern (15-15) - .4804 - 243

207. (221) Central Arkansas - Southland (14-15) - .4802 - 227

208. (203) Sacred Heart - Northeast (17-12) - .4784 - 292

209. (208) Duquesne - Atlantic 10 (11-16) - .4778 - 161

210. (212) Stony Brook - America East (10-15) - .4774 - 180

211. (211) Davidson - Atlantic 10 (12-16) - .4774 - 177

212. (223) Presbyterian - Big South (15-15) - .4763 - 255

213. (218) Stetson - Atlantic Sun (13-13) - .4750 - 246

214. (204) Penn - Ivy (11-12) - .4738 - 230

215. (219) Eastern Michigan - Mid-American (11-17) - .4724 - 157

216. (215) Delaware - Colonial (14-14) - .4718 - 258

217. (207) Virginia Tech - Atlantic Coast (11-20) - .4713 - 148

218. (200) Montana State - Big Sky (13-14) - .4712 - 248

219. (220) Georgetown - Big East (14-18) - .4707 - 218

220. (230) Austin Peay - Ohio Valley (11-19) - .4698 - 153

221. (226) Southern Illinois - Missouri Valley (15-17) - .4695 - 247

222. (227) Marist - Metro Atlantic (14-14) - .4688 - 273

223. (217) Auburn - Southeastern Conference (7-22) - .4687 - 78

224. (209) Wake Forest - Atlantic Coast (13-16) - .4687 - 221

225. (210) Elon - Colonial (13-18) - .4683 - 213

226. (225) Bryant - Northeast (16-16) - .4680 - 276

227. (232) Southern Utah - Big Sky (15-15) - .4667 - 275

228. (222) USF - American Athletic (8-22) - .4660 - 94

229. (231) Portland State - Big Sky (11-18) - .4639 - 200

230. (236) San Jose State - Mountain West (10-19) - .4636 - 145

231. (224) IUPUI - Horizon (7-22) - .4628 - 87

232. (240) Missouri State - Missouri Valley (10-22) - .4621 - 135

233. (238) Campbell - Big South (16-13) - .4619 - 293

234. (228) UConn - American Athletic (10-18) - .4615 - 197

235. (241) Hartford - America East (14-13) - .4615 - 288

236. (235) Radford - Big South (11-16) - .4603 - 220

237. (229) Northern Illinois - Mid-American (9-21) - .4597 - 144

238. (234) SIUE - Ohio Valley (14-14) - .4577 - 280

239. (246) Georgia Southern - Sun Belt (8-19) - .4566 - 143

240. (242) Air Force - Mountain West (10-20) - .4565 - 191

241. (261) Gonzaga - West Coast (9-21) - .4563 - 141

242. (253) Bucknell - Patriot (15-13) - .4558 - 297

243. (258) New Mexico - Mountain West (10-20) - .4529 - 175

244. (244) Mercer - Southern (13-16) - .4526 - 271

245. (252) Fordham - Atlantic 10 (11-15) - .4525 - 252

246. (245) UC Irvine - Big West (6-22) - .4524 - 100

247. (247) College of Charleston - Colonial (7-21) - .4519 - 108

248. (248) Drake - Missouri Valley (10-21) - .4518 - 193

249. (237) Tennessee Tech - Ohio Valley (12-17) - .4511 - 260

250. (233) Charleston Southern - Big South (13-15) - .4503 - 286

251. (251) Dartmouth - Ivy (9-16) - .4499 - 228

252. (254) Toledo - Mid-American (8-20) - .4495 - 179

253. (266) Rider - Metro Atlantic (16-14) - .4494 - 301

254. (243) Lamar - Southland (9-17) - .4490 - 234

255. (239) CSU Bakersfield - Western Athletic (9-19) - .4487 - 207

256. (257) UNF - Atlantic Sun (15-17) - .4484 - 289

257. (256) Canisius - Metro Atlantic (15-15) - .4479 - 294

258. (259) McNeese State - Southland (12-16) - .4479 - 261

259. (267) Seattle - Western Athletic (12-18) - .4452 - 272

260. (265) UT Martin - Ohio Valley (12-19) - .4449 - 257

261. (270) San Francisco - West Coast (7-22) - .4444 - 150

262. (249) New Orleans - Southland (12-18) - .4440 - 268

263. (255) Rhode Island - Atlantic 10 (7-19) - .4434 - 173

264. (278) UNC Asheville - Big South (14-12) - .4416 - 307

265. (250) Furman - Southern (7-20) - .4399 - 158

266. (260) Indiana State - Missouri Valley (7-21) - .4395 - 165

267. (263) Lafayette - Patriot (14-18) - .4378 - 279

268. (262) Long Island - Northeast (10-18) - .4362 - 265

269. (264) Idaho State - Big Sky (8-22) - .4357 - 182

270. (271) UC Riverside - Big West (7-20) - .4353 - 181

271. (282) North Carolina A&T - Mid-Eastern (15-13) - .4344 - 314

272. (273) Incarnate Word - Southland (7-23) - .4342 - 174

273. (283) Arkansas-Little Rock - Sun Belt (7-21) - .4332 - 196

274. (269) Nicholls State - Southland (11-16) - .4318 - 291

275. (281) Central Connecticut State - Northeast (14-14) - .4316 - 313

276. (279) North Dakota - The Summit (12-19) - .4314 - 281

277. (272) Abilene Christian - Southland (6-20) - .4309 - 194

278. (268) Oral Roberts - The Summit (8-22) - .4301 - 206

279. (275) Chicago State - Western Athletic (6-25) - .4287 - 118

280. (280) Eastern Kentucky - Ohio Valley (10-20) - .4286 - 267

281. (277) Jacksonville - Atlantic Sun (11-20) - .4283 - 274

282. (276) William & Mary - Colonial (7-20) - .4281 - 205

283. (288) South Carolina Upstate - Big South (9-15) - .4253 - 287

284. (274) UNC Greensboro - Southern (11-19) - .4251 - 278

285. (286) Tennessee State - Ohio Valley (12-17) - .4250 - 295

286. (284) Niagara - Metro Atlantic (12-16) - .4249 - 306

287. (290) Quinnipiac - Metro Atlantic (13-14) - .4234 - 310

288. (292) Eastern Washington - Big Sky (6-24) - .4206 - 198

289. (289) South Dakota State - The Summit (7-21) - .4191 - 225

290. (285) Seton Hall - Big East (8-24) - .4177 - 219

291. (287) Utah State - Mountain West (3-27) - .4150 - 110

292. (291) Louisiana-Monroe - Sun Belt (12-20) - .4131 - 296

293. (298) Montana - Big Sky (5-24) - .4120 - 212

294. (294) Holy Cross - Patriot (4-26) - .4119 - 172

295. (295) Providence - Big East (7-24) - .4105 - 235

296. (301) The Citadel - Southern (11-18) - .4104 - 298

297. (297) Southern Miss - Conference USA (3-26) - .4070 - 138

298. (293) Western Illinois - The Summit (7-22) - .4061 - 253

299. (299) Morgan State - Mid-Eastern (15-13) - .4057 - 329

300. (296) Coppin State - Mid-Eastern (13-16) - .4046 - 316

301. (304) UMBC - America East (7-16) - .4041 - 285

302. (300) George Mason - Atlantic 10 (5-21) - .3989 - 254

303. (303) Chattanooga - Southern (7-22) - .3962 - 282

304. (302) Jackson State - Southwestern Athletic (17-17) - .3951 - 330

305. (308) Alabama A&M - Southwestern Athletic (18-14) - .3926 - 335

306. (305) Prairie View A&M - Southwestern Athletic (14-20) - .3913 - 322

307. (306) North Alabama - Atlantic Sun (4-25) - .3895 - 239

308. (309) Eastern Illinois - Ohio Valley (4-25) - .3890 - 222

309. (315) Gardner-Webb - Big South (4-21) - .3875 - 237

310. (307) Belmont - Ohio Valley (3-28) - .3821 - 223

311. (311) St. Francis-Brooklyn - Northeast (14-17) - .3819 - 332

312. (313) Maryland Eastern Shore - Mid-Eastern (12-18) - .3805 - 318

313. (318) Florida A&M - Mid-Eastern (10-20) - .3746 - 315

314. (310) Hampton - Big South (7-18) - .3744 - 302

315. (312) Alabama State - Southwestern Athletic (14-21) - .3723 - 325

316. (317) Bethune-Cookman - Mid-Eastern (8-23) - .3708 - 304

317. (314) Siena - Metro Atlantic (11-18) - .3705 - 323

318. (316) Southern - Southwestern Athletic (11-20) - .3658 - 327

319. (319) North Carolina Central - Mid-Eastern (8-23) - .3649 - 312

320. (321) NJIT - Atlantic Sun (1-31) - .3627 - 209

321. (320) Iona - Metro Atlantic (5-23) - .3578 - 300

322. (322) Delaware State - Mid-Eastern (12-18) - .3503 - 333

323. (323) Manhattan College - Metro Atlantic (7-24) - .3404 - 317

324. (324) Binghamton - America East (0-23) - .3382 - 270

325. (326) Texas Southern - Southwestern Athletic (11-16) - .3380 - 334

326. (325) St. Francis-PA - Northeast (4-24) - .3371 - 308

327. (327) Saint Peters - Metro Atlantic (3-27) - .3223 - 305

328. (328) Arkansas-Pine Bluff - Southwestern Athletic (7-24) - .3211 - 324

329. (330) Norfolk State - Mid-Eastern (2-23) - .3080 - 311

330. (329) Grambling State - Southwestern Athletic (5-22) - .3071 - 326

331. (331) Fairleigh Dickinson - Northeast (3-27) - .3016 - 320

332. (332) Alcorn State - Southwestern Athletic (3-22) - .2814 - 328

333. (333) South Carolina State - Mid-Eastern (0-28) - .2805 - 309

334. (334) Merrimack College - Northeast (0-23) - .2763 - 319

335. (335) Mississippi Valley State - Southwestern Athletic (1-28) - .2525 - 331

[Kingsley]

With this new projection that includes the conference title matches, the biggest wildcards I see are the Big East front runners. This looks like it has Marquette over Creighton in the regular season and title. I’m interested to see the variability of results in the very plausible case that those two results don’t pan out.

Edit: Never mind, I misread that. It has split results. My bad.

[dd2000]

I'm surprised the model has Hawaii with another loss given they successfully got past Cal Poly and UCSB. No match is a given, especially UCD on the road, but Hawaii "should" go undefeated from here.

[tomclen]

If it works out this way, I'm skittish about that Wisconsin regional


BAYLOR vs BYU
Florida vs. UK

TEXAS vs Creighton
Marquette vs. Minnesota

WISCONSIN vs Hawaii
Nebraska vs. Washington

PITT vs Rice
Stanford vs TAMU

[bluepenquin]

Nov 4, 2019 16:51:58 GMT -5 Kingsley said:

With this new projection that includes the conference title matches, the biggest wildcards I see are the Big East front runners. This looks like it has Marquette over Creighton in the regular season and title. I’m interested to see the variability of results in the very plausible case that those two results don’t pan out.

Edit: Never mind, I misread that. It has split results. My bad.

I am not convinced I am doing it right by adding - but I think it was also not right by excluding.  The results in the tournament are randomized per Pablo rating.  However, I advanced the favorite to the following round matches.  The reason I did this - there are a lot of mid-major teams that are playing conference tournaments with teams hovering around Top 50 and Top 75 - which impacts all (many) other teams.  And I wanted to get a probability RPI for teams if they win out like Rice, Creighton, Marquette, etc...

[bluepenquin]

Here is my current bracket for fun (not to be taken too seriously). #15 and 16 seeds are in jeopardy to Penn State who probably is in a better position.

1. Texas, Cal, Dayton, Prairie View A&M
16. BYU, Utah, Cal Poly, Wright State

9. Florida, UCF, Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast
8. Minnesota, USC, South Dakota, Princeton


5. Stanford, UCSB, Towson, Fairfield
12. Texas A&M, Colorado State, Washington State, Texas State

13. Hawaii, UCLA, South Carolina, American
4. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Michigan, Robert Morris


3. Baylor, Georgia, Stephen F. Austin, Albany
14. Creighton, Missouri, Iowa State, Samford

11. Kentucky, Purdue, Notre Dame, Morehead State
6. Nebraska, San Diego, Northern Iowa, Northern Colorado


7. Washington, Western Kentucky, Ole Miss, Winthrop
10. Marquette, Louisville, Illinois, Miami-OH

15. Rice, Penn State, Pepperdine, New Mexico State
2. Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Milwaukee, Howard

[ay2013]

Given the committees comments (though their reasonings may change), if these were the futures I'd predict seeds of:

1- Texas
8- Minnesota
9- Florida
16- Penn State or Kentucky

2- Baylor
7- Washington
10- Marquette
15- BYU

3- Wisconsin
6- Nebraska
11- Creighton
14- Rice

4- Stanford
5- Pitt
12- Texas A&M
13- Hawaii

[staticb]

Nov 4, 2019 17:05:11 GMT -5 dd2000 said:

I'm surprised the model has Hawaii with another loss given they successfully got past Cal Poly and UCSB. No match is a given, especially UCD on the road, but Hawaii "should" go undefeated from here.

Hawaii's pablo is still terrible. (Given it's injury situation, I'd say it's lower than what it actually is, but if you have a 75% chance of winning your next 4 games, you should still lose 1)

I'd say if they get by Davis, it will go to 3 next week.

[ay2013]

Nov 4, 2019 17:08:29 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Here is my current bracket for fun (not to be taken too seriously). #15 and 16 seeds are in jeopardy to Penn State who probably is in a better position.

1. Texas, Cal, Dayton, Prairie View A&M
16. BYU, Utah, Cal Poly, Wright State

9. Florida, UCF, Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast
8. Minnesota, USC, South Dakota, Princeton


5. Stanford, UCSB, Towson, Fairfield
12. Texas A&M, Colorado State, Washington State, Texas State

13. Hawaii, UCLA, South Carolina, American
4. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Michigan, Robert Morris


3. Baylor, Georgia, Stephen F. Austin, Albany
14. Creighton, Missouri, Iowa State, Samford

11. Kentucky, Purdue, Notre Dame, Morehead State
6. Nebraska, San Diego, Northern Iowa, Northern Colorado


7. Washington, Western Kentucky, Ole Miss, Winthrop
10. Marquette, Louisville, Illinois, Miami-OH

15. Rice, Penn State, Pepperdine, New Mexico State
2. Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Milwaukee, Howard

Wisconsin over Baylor with Baylor having a head to head win over Wisconsin @ Wisconsin, a higher RPI, fewer losses, and more top 25 wins.....hmmmmm that would need quite the justification!

[bluepenquin]

Nov 4, 2019 17:16:10 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Nov 4, 2019 17:08:29 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Here is my current bracket for fun (not to be taken too seriously). #15 and 16 seeds are in jeopardy to Penn State who probably is in a better position.

1. Texas, Cal, Dayton, Prairie View A&M
16. BYU, Utah, Cal Poly, Wright State

9. Florida, UCF, Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast
8. Minnesota, USC, South Dakota, Princeton


5. Stanford, UCSB, Towson, Fairfield
12. Texas A&M, Colorado State, Washington State, Texas State

13. Hawaii, UCLA, South Carolina, American
4. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Michigan, Robert Morris


3. Baylor, Georgia, Stephen F. Austin, Albany
14. Creighton, Missouri, Iowa State, Samford

11. Kentucky, Purdue, Notre Dame, Morehead State
6. Nebraska, San Diego, Northern Iowa, Northern Colorado


7. Washington, Western Kentucky, Ole Miss, Winthrop
10. Marquette, Louisville, Illinois, Miami-OH

15. Rice, Penn State, Pepperdine, New Mexico State
2. Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Milwaukee, Howard

Wisconsin over Baylor with Baylor having a head to head win over Wisconsin @ Wisconsin, a higher RPI, fewer losses, and more top 25 wins.....hmmmmm that would need quite the justification!

Like you wrote - not sure what statements to parse out as important or if anything said on Sunday is important to the final?  But Wisconsin going 20-0 or 19-1 in the Big Ten would probably trump Baylor going 14-2 in the Big 12.  But if Baylor beats Texas - then it could easily be Baylor #1.  And then how will Stanford be handled if they go 18-2 - hard to see them not being a regional seed.

BTW, I didn't go strictly by the RPI Futures/Pablo projections.  And I was also mostly interested in seeing what kind of drive-in scenarios there will be more so than who will be the seeds and what seed #.

[Kingsley]

Nov 4, 2019 17:08:29 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

11. Kentucky, Purdue, Notre Dame, Morehead State
6. Nebraska, San Diego, Northern Iowa, Northern Colorado

Sorry, Washington, but Nebraska has found a new tournament partner. It’s nothing personal, Huskies, but we just thought it was best to find someone else. Our heart is with Kentucky now. We hope you understand.

[brybast]

How did Rice drop to #13 from #7 last week? Because they went to a deuce set with UAB?

[ay2013]

Nov 4, 2019 17:27:31 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 4, 2019 17:16:10 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Wisconsin over Baylor with Baylor having a head to head win over Wisconsin @ Wisconsin, a higher RPI, fewer losses, and more top 25 wins.....hmmmmm that would need quite the justification!

Like you wrote - not sure what statements to parse out as important or if anything said on Sunday is important to the final?  But Wisconsin going 20-0 or 19-1 in the Big Ten would probably trump Baylor going 14-2 in the Big 12.  But if Baylor beats Texas - then it could easily be Baylor #1.  And then how will Stanford be handled if they go 18-2 - hard to see them not being a regional seed.

BTW, I didn't go strictly by the RPI Futures/Pablo projections.  And I was also mostly interested in seeing what kind of drive-in scenarios there will be more so than who will be the seeds and what seed #.

If I was Baylor and this was pretty much the futures, I’d probably say a big f you to the committee on live television if Wisconsin was seeded higher. They’d have done everything right per the selection criteria- winning a strong non conference, losses to only the #1 overall team, a win against Wisconsin @ Wisconsin (and it wasn’t that close), a higher RPI, fewer losses, more top 25 wins.... I mean dang. Maybe someone on the committee should look at the big 10 and think that if Wisconsin can do that well, maybe the Big 10 isn’t as strong. I mean, Stanford and Washington are 5-1 against Wisconsin, Minnesota, Penn State, Illinois, Nebraska this season....just sayin.

[bluepenquin]

One of the questions I had - what are the chances Penn State ends up with Pittsburgh if Penn State is not a seed. I think the answer is it is very unlikely - they will most likely ship Penn State somewhere as there is enough to fill out a Pitt subregional w/o PSU. I need to look at what happens if Penn State does get a seed - is there a decent opponent for Penn State w/o 'cheating' and flying someone in when there are drive-in alternatives. Probably gong to be Dayton/VCU and then maybe Towson (are they within 400 miles?) or Princeton.

Florida is going to have the UCF, Gulf Coast, Florida State subregional - there is no getting round that.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 4, 2019 17:38:33 GMT -5 brybast said:

How did Rice drop to #13 from #7 last week? Because they went to a deuce set with UAB?

Rice got hurt by LMU getting upset this week and droping out of the Top 75 and costing Rice the scheduling bonus (Rice played them twice).  Also added the conference tournament with that extra match likely against a good Western Kentucky team that is looking each week like a tougher match.