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Post by dunninla3 on Mar 24, 2024 18:21:03 GMT -5
Women's Rankings, Top 9 finishes
OK, have double checked my totals now against acrosstheponds site fivb.12ndr.at/olympic-ranking/women and I think the below is correct. I had made an error with CAN2, and THA, but those are fixed now.
For the teams I still consider on the bubble, which in this case is Teams #13 - #25, I'm changing the format to show exactly the 9 finishes used in calculating the Top 9. I consider the teams currently occupying the first 12 spots to have already sewn up their Olympic berth, and not needing any further analysis.
Teams who played Recife // + means improved position, = means stayed put, - means dropped
1. BRA1, AP / Duda, 10300, 760 2. USA1, Nuss / Kloth, 8900, 600 3. USA2, Hughes / Cheng, 8840, 760 4. CAN1, Melissa / Brandie, 8100, 760 5. BRA2, Carol / Barbara, 7920, 760 6. NED, Stam / Schoon, 7380, 600 7. AUS, Clancy / Mariafe, 7380, (6780 + 600) -- note: (have played only 8, assumes 9th finish will equal lowest counting) 8. SUI1, Hüberli / Brunner, 7100, 600 + 9. LAT, Graudina / Samoilova, 7040, 600 10. CHN, Xue / Xia, 6880, 600 11. ITA, Gottardi / Menegatti, 6880, 600 12. GER1, Müller / Tillmann, 6500, 460
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+ xx. BRA3, Taina / Victoria, 6480, 600 = xx. BRA4, Agatha / Rebecca, 5940, 460xx. USA3, Scoles / Flint, 5820, 460 + 13. SUI3, Esmée / Zoé, 5640, (800,760,680,680,600,600,600,460,460) - xx. SUI2, Joana / Anouk, 5620, (800,760,760,680,640,600,460,460,460)14. GER2, Lippmann / Ludwig, 5520, (760,760,760,720,640,600,460,460,360) = 15. ESP, Alvarez / Moreno, 5460, (760,760,720,640,600,600,460,460,460) = 16. FRA, Placette / Richard, 5400, (760,680,640,600,600,600,600,460,460)xx. BRA5, Andressa / Vitoria, 5160, 460 + 17. LTU, Paulikiene / Raupelyte 5160, (720,680,680,640,600,460,460,460,460) 18. CAN2, Pavan / McBain, 5140 (760,720,640,600,600,600,460,400,360) + xx. GER3, Ittlinger / Borger, 5120, (760,680,680,640,600,600,460,460,460)
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- 19. FIN, Ahtiainen / Lahti, 4900, (760,640,600,460,460,460,460,460,460) + 20. THA, Nara / Wora, 4880, (760,680,640,600,460,460,460,460,360)+ 21. CZE, Hermannova / Stochlova, 4780, (720,640,600,600,600,460,400,400,360)+ 22. AUT, Klinger / Klinger, 4700, (680,640,600,600,460,460,460,400,400) - 23. POL, Gruszczynska / Wachowicz, 4680, (760,640,600,600,460,460,400,400,360) + 24. ESP2, Liliana / Paula, 4620, (640,600,600,600,460,460,460,400,400) xx. BRA6, Talita / Thamela, 4440, 460
= 25. CHN2, Wang / Dong, 4260, (680,640,600,600,460,340,340,320,300) ----- + xx. CAN3, Bansley / Bukovec, 4280 (760,600,460,460,460,400,340,340) +460
-- note: (have played only 8, assumes 9th finish will equal median finish)
The biggest winner in Recife was LTU. They moved from 19th spot to 20 points above CAN2 into spot 17. Second biggest winner was CAN3 who actually, viably enter the race now, with about five four Challenge events remaining. They'll need to make Quarters in ALL of the remaining Challenge events to gain ground. GER3, CZE, AUT, ESP2, and THA also improved their position marginally.
Biggest loser was CAN2, the ONLY team ranked 15-25 who didn't bother to play. They allowed LTU to pass them for position 17.
I think CZE is stronger than FIN, so I expect them to slip into 19th spot after next week in Saquarema, then challenge both CAN2 and LTU for top 18.
**edit** it appears there are only four (4) Challenge events remaining. Saquarema, Guadalajara, Xiamen, and Stare Jablonik. That will make it very difficult for CAN3 to surpass CAN2. There is a good chance though that with this strong finish in Recife, coupled with another decent finish in Saquarema, they will have enough Entry Points to make the Qualifiers at the E16 in Brasilia first week of May. Which also means that would have a decent chance to get into the E16 Quali in Espinho in late May. That gives them 6 tournaments in which improve their position.
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Post by ajm on Mar 24, 2024 21:00:00 GMT -5
You’ve gotta wonder if there’s an injury involved with Pavan/McBain. Can’t imagine the hypercompetitive Pavan wouldn’t withdraw without a good reason, knowing how much they risked. With all of those bubble teams playing Recife, it was bound that a few of them would finish strong and pass them up.
Really curious to see whether they show up this week and if so whether they show any signs of rust and/or injury.
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Post by overonone on Mar 24, 2024 21:18:33 GMT -5
You’ve gotta wonder if there’s an injury involved with Pavan/McBain. Can’t imagine the hypercompetitive Pavan wouldn’t withdraw without a good reason, knowing how much they risked. With all of those bubble teams playing Recife, it was bound that a few of them would finish strong and pass them up. Really curious to see whether they show up this week and if so whether they show any signs of rust and/or injury. I’m almost certain I saw them practicing in Hermosa last week.
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Post by dunninla3 on Mar 24, 2024 21:42:12 GMT -5
You’ve gotta wonder if there’s an injury involved with Pavan/McBain. Can’t imagine the hypercompetitive Pavan wouldn’t withdraw without a good reason, knowing how much they risked. With all of those bubble teams playing Recife, it was bound that a few of them would finish strong and pass them up. Really curious to see whether they show up this week and if so whether they show any signs of rust and/or injury. I hope that is the case, rather than apathy. CZE will surpass them unless they play in good form. Of course there is always the Zone Qualifying via NORCECA, assuming they also stay ahead of CAN3 by first week of June.
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Post by blackmambabeto on Mar 24, 2024 23:39:26 GMT -5
You’ve gotta wonder if there’s an injury involved with Pavan/McBain. Can’t imagine the hypercompetitive Pavan wouldn’t withdraw without a good reason, knowing how much they risked. With all of those bubble teams playing Recife, it was bound that a few of them would finish strong and pass them up. Really curious to see whether they show up this week and if so whether they show any signs of rust and/or injury. I hope that is the case, rather than apathy. CZE will surpass them unless they play in good form. Of course there is always the Zone Qualifying via NORCECA, assuming they also stay ahead of CAN3 by first week of June. any update on the mens side? still a WIP?
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Post by dunninla3 on Mar 25, 2024 0:34:46 GMT -5
I hope that is the case, rather than apathy. CZE will surpass them unless they play in good form. Of course there is always the Zone Qualifying via NORCECA, assuming they also stay ahead of CAN3 by first week of June. any update on the mens side? still a WIP?OK, I'm using this space to start updating the rankings for the results thus far... getting a head start on a new ranking that will include the Top 10 now that we're close to the finish line in this Olympic race. Just 3 more Challenge events to go.
DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO THIS LIST WHILE I'M EDITING IT TODAY.
Teams who played Saquarema // + means improved position, = means stayed put, - means dropped
1. BRA1, AP / Duda, 11060 2. USA1, Nuss / Kloth, 9500 3. USA2, Hughes / Cheng, 9600 4. CAN1, Melissa / Brandie, 8860 5. BRA2, Carol / Barbara, 8680 6. NED, Stam / Schoon, 7980 7. AUS, Clancy / Mariafe, 7980, (6780 + 600 + 600) -- note: (have played only 8, assumes 9th/10th finishes will equal lowest counting) 8. SUI1, Hüberli / Brunner, 7700 9. LAT, Graudina / Samoilova, 7640 10. CHN, Xue / Xia, 7480, ** 11. ITA, Gottardi / Menegatti, 7480 12. GER1, Müller / Tillmann, 6960, 460
------------ no longer in the race IMO
+ xx. BRA3, Taina / Victoria, 6480, 600 = xx. BRA4, Agatha / Rebecca, 5940, 460 xx. USA3, Scoles / Flint, 5820, 460
------------ Teams in the race for qualifying positions 13-18
13. SUI2, Joana / Anouk, 6220, (800,760,760,680,640,600,460,460,460,600) 14. GER2, Lippmann / Ludwig, 6200 (760,760,760,720,640,600,460,460,360,680)** xx. SUI3, Esmée / Zoé, 6100, (800,760,680,680,600,600,600,460,460,460) 15. ESP, Alvarez / Moreno, 6060, (760,760,720,640,600,600,460,460,460,600) 16. FRA, Placette / Richard, 5860, (760,680,640,600,600,600,600,460,460,460) 17. LTU, Paulikiene / Raupelyte 5620, (720,680,680,640,600,460,460,460,460,460) xx. GER3, Ittlinger / Borger, 5580, (760,680,680,640,600,600,460,460,460,460)
18. CAN2, Pavan / McBain, 5480 (760,720,640,600,600,600,460,400,360,340)
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19. FIN, Ahtiainen / Lahti, 5360, (760,640,600,460,460,460,460,460,460,460) 20. THA, Nara / Wora, 5340, (760,680,640,600,460,460,460,460,460,360) 21. CZE, Hermannova / Stochlova, 5140, (720,640,600,600,600,460,400,400,360,360) 22. AUT, Klinger / Klinger, 5160, (680,640,600,600,460,460,460,460,400,400) 23. POL, Gruszczynska / Wachowicz, 5040, (760,640,600,600,460,460,400,400,360,360) 24. ESP2, Liliana / Paula, 5220, (640,600,600,600,460,460,460,400,400,600)
xx. CAN3, Bansley / Bukovec, 4880 (760,600,460,460,460,400,340,340,600) +460
-- note: (have played only 9, assumes 10th finish will equal median finish)
25. CHN2, Wang / Dong, 4560, (680,640,600,600,460,340,340,320,300,300) -----
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Post by acrossthepond on Mar 25, 2024 2:39:45 GMT -5
Looking at the Olympic Rankings it does seem to me that the #19 spot will be awarded based on the Olympic Ranking list and will not go automatically to FRA2 (we had this discussion last year I think). In the updated rankings Placette/Richard currently hold the #13 spot and are listed as being qualified. Whereas Vieira/Chamereau now also have participated in 12 tournaments and do not show as being qualified. fivb.12ndr.at/olympic-ranking/womenSo the rule for host countries really seems to be: If one of the teams makes it through the rankings no host country spot will be awarded. If no team makes it through the rankings (as it is on the Men's side) the #19 will go to the French team. So it will always be the "Top 18 international teams" + 1 French team - only exception would be if both French teams made it via the rankings.
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Post by houdini on Mar 25, 2024 3:01:08 GMT -5
Looking at the Olympic Rankings it does seem to me that the #19 spot will be awarded based on the Olympic Ranking list and will not go automatically to FRA2 (we had this discussion last year I think). In the updated rankings Placette/Richard currently hold the #13 spot and are listed as being qualified. Whereas Vieira/Chamereau now also have participated in 12 tournaments and do not show as being qualified. fivb.12ndr.at/olympic-ranking/womenSo the rule for host countries really seems to be: If one of the teams makes it through the rankings no host country spot will be awarded. If no team makes it through the rankings (as it is on the Men's side) the #19 will go to the French team. So it will always be the "Top 18 international teams" + 1 French team - only exception would be if both French teams made it via the rankings. It would be good to have FIVB clarify. Maybe Vieira/Chamereau are not listed as "qualified" because the spot is awarded to the federation - not to a team. I know that some federations plan to have a quick domestic play-off if one of their teams wins the continental competition, e.g. Netherlands, Latvia.
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Post by acrossthepond on Mar 25, 2024 4:31:05 GMT -5
The spots are for sure awarded to the federations and not directly to the teams. That has always been the case for the Olympics. Except for Brazil and some short-term injuries I cannot think of a spot that was not awarded to the team that won it via the Olympic Rankings.
Country play-offs have usually only happened when a spot was won in a country vs country format. (e.g. NORCECA or CEV qualifiers)
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Post by modulaire on Mar 25, 2024 6:28:33 GMT -5
You’ve gotta wonder if there’s an injury involved with Pavan/McBain. Can’t imagine the hypercompetitive Pavan wouldn’t withdraw without a good reason, knowing how much they risked. With all of those bubble teams playing Recife, it was bound that a few of them would finish strong and pass them up. Really curious to see whether they show up this week and if so whether they show any signs of rust and/or injury. I hope that is the case, rather than apathy. CZE will surpass them unless they play in good form. Of course there is always the Zone Qualifying via NORCECA, assuming they also stay ahead of CAN3 by first week of June. How will the NORCECA qualification mode work? Is it a country-vs-country-format? How many teams from each country will take part in this?
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Post by ajm on Mar 25, 2024 7:02:54 GMT -5
Looking at the Olympic Rankings it does seem to me that the #19 spot will be awarded based on the Olympic Ranking list and will not go automatically to FRA2 (we had this discussion last year I think). In the updated rankings Placette/Richard currently hold the #13 spot and are listed as being qualified. Whereas Vieira/Chamereau now also have participated in 12 tournaments and do not show as being qualified. fivb.12ndr.at/olympic-ranking/womenSo the rule for host countries really seems to be: If one of the teams makes it through the rankings no host country spot will be awarded. If no team makes it through the rankings (as it is on the Men's side) the #19 will go to the French team. So it will always be the "Top 18 international teams" + 1 French team - only exception would be if both French teams made it via the rankings. It would be good to have FIVB clarify. Maybe Vieira/Chamereau are not listed as "qualified" because the spot is awarded to the federation - not to a team. I know that some federations plan to have a quick domestic play-off if one of their teams wins the continental competition, e.g. Netherlands, Latvia. Travis has been saying for months that Vieira/Chamereau are rooting for Placette/Richard to qualify via points so that they would get the host country spot. Of course, if Travis is wrong it wouldn’t be the first time.
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Post by beachcoach on Mar 25, 2024 8:53:26 GMT -5
It would be good to have FIVB clarify. Maybe Vieira/Chamereau are not listed as "qualified" because the spot is awarded to the federation - not to a team. I know that some federations plan to have a quick domestic play-off if one of their teams wins the continental competition, e.g. Netherlands, Latvia. Travis has been saying for months that Vieira/Chamereau are rooting for Placette/Richard to qualify via points so that they would get the host country spot. Of course, if Travis is wrong it wouldn’t be the first time. I will go back to 2012 and the second team were hoping to get through CC. But they lost to Russia. We would have or could have had two women’s teams. I will keep asking around.
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Post by dunninla3 on Mar 30, 2024 7:53:05 GMT -5
Update in Saquarema: several teams who are in the battle for the 18th spot are already out with no improvement to their ranking points (Top 9 finishes, that is) -- POL, FIN, CZE, CAN2, LTU. Three remain: ESP2, THA and AUT. In the country quota races, GER3 finishes 17 and GER2 is still in Rd of 16, while both SUI3 and SUI2 are both in the Rd. of 16.
We have a real sibling battle here with SUI. One will go to Paris as SUI2, the other will not.
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Post by beachcoach on Mar 30, 2024 13:57:20 GMT -5
I will go back to 2012 and the second team were hoping to get through CC. But they lost to Russia. We would have or could have had two women’s teams. I will keep asking around. Talking to a Referee and technical supervisor. The ruling was for GBR was the second team could have qualifed if they got their CC place for the second team. They lost to Russia. But the host country spot is only awarded if they need it. If they don’t need it because they qualified already then it’s not an extra spot. Stil not totally sure and will keep asking. replying here too. From tech supervisor in Saquerema. France has a host spot they can also qualify a further spot through. The top 17, the WCh or the Continental Cup. They keep the host spot plus a second.
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