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Post by dunninla3 on Apr 20, 2024 23:45:04 GMT -5
edit: I have added Xiamen points thus far in the last post
Here are the points going into Sunday's Final in Xiamen. I have stopped keeping track of positions 1-12, who I feel have safely secured their berths, and focus going forward only on positions 13-25.
Olympic Qualification Points, by TOP 10 finishes
Teams who played Tepic// + means improved position, = means stayed put, - means dropped
1. BRA1, AP / Duda, 11060
= 2. USA1, Nuss / Kloth, 9500
= 3. USA2, Hughes / Cheng, 9600
= 4. CAN1, Melissa / Brandie, 8860
+ 5. BRA2, Carol / Barbara, 8820
+ 6. NED, Stam / Schoon, 8490
+ 7. SUI1, Hüberli / Brunner, 8440
+ 8. ITA, Gottardi / Menegatti, 8220
9. AUS, Clancy / Mariafe, 7980, (6780 + 600 + 600)
-- note: (have played only 8, assumes 9th/10th finishes will equal lowest counting)
10. CHN, Xue / Xia, 7680,
11. LAT, Graudina / Samoilova, 7500
12. GER1, Müller / Tillmann, 7260
------------ no longer viably in the race IMO
xx. BRA3, Taina / Victoria, 7100
xx. BRA4, Agatha / Rebecca, 6700
xx. USA3, Scoles / Flint, 5820, 460
------------ Teams in the race for qualifying positions 13-18
+13. GER2, Lippmann / Ludwig, 6520 (760,760,760,720,640,600,460,460,760,600)
14. SUI2, Esmée / Zoé, 6440, (800,760,680,680,600,600,600,460,460 800)
xx. SUI3, Joana / Anouk, 6220, (800,760,760,680,640,600,460,460,460,600)
= 15. ESP1, Alvarez / Moreno, 6200, (760,760,720,640,600,600,460,460,600,600)
+ xx. GER3, Ittlinger / Borger, 6100, (760,680,680,640,600,600,460,460,680,760)
= 16. FRA, Placette / Richard, 5860, (760,680,640,600,600,600,600,460,460,460)
= 17. LTU, Paulikiene / Raupelyte 5760, (720,680,680,640,600,460,460,460,460,600)
+18. CAN2, Pavan / McBain, 5740 (760,720,640,600,600,600,460,400,360,600)
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- 19. FIN, Ahtiainen / Lahti, 5500, (760,640,600,460,460,460,460,460,460,600)
+ 20. ESP2, Liliana / Paula, 5480, (640,600,600,600,460,460,460,600,600,460)
20. THA, Nara / Wora, 5440, (760,680,640,600,460,460,460,460,460,460)
= 22. AUT, Klinger / Klinger, 5220, (680,640,600,600,460,460,460,460,400,460)
23. CZE, Hermannova / Stochlova, 5140, (720,640,600,600,600,460,400,400,360,360)
24. POL, Gruszczynska / Ola (Wachowicz), 5140, (760,640,600,600,460,460,400,400,360,460)
xx. CAN3, Bansley / Bukovec, 5140 (760,600,460,460,460,400,340,340,600,720)
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Biggest Winners in Tepic: (as relates to Olympic Qualification)
CAN2, GER3, ESP2
-CAN2 loses second Quali game badly, I mean a mauling to the Klinger Sisters to go home, but win the Lucky Loser flip (not sure what that is but that is what the announcers said). So nstead of going home with 300 points, they continue into Pool, and then Rd. of 12 and pick up 600 points. With this, they retake the 18th spot and push FIN down to 19th. More importantly, Pavan seems to have awakened from her stupor. Actually, I think the opportunity to play in Pool made her decide to take a risk playing full out on her knee, and it worked out. She played well... well enough in my opinion to still rise another spot or two in the rankings over the next three tournaments and will probably qualify via Top 18 now.
GER3: Played really well. Finished better than GER2, and closed the gap to them to 420 points. Still keeps their hopes alive. I felt that if they didn't close the gap this tournament, their race was likely over. To me they were 5% chance before Tepic, now rising to 15%.
ESP2: Trying to pass either CAN2 or LTU to get into Top 18, and closed the gap slightly. Since I think CAN2 will further the gap, their real goal, as well as FIN, is to pass LTU for spot 18. Still a chance.
Biggest Losers in Tepic:
CAN3: I don't disagree with skipping Tepic and focusing on Guadalajara, Xiamen, and Brasilia, but the reality is the lucky flip by CAN2 dropped CAN3 from approx 350 points behind CAN2, to 600 points behind. Unless Pavan further injures her knee, I think the race for CAN2 is close to over. Which means that by Country Quota CAN3's Olympic Race is close to over. |
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Post by volleyman808 on Apr 21, 2024 1:34:13 GMT -5
FYI Jie Dong is playing with a different player now. She has paired with Jingzhe Wang since 3/2024 at Recife but was previously with Fan Wang. Thus, CHN2 is not in the running for Paris 2024
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Post by Wahinevball1234 on Apr 21, 2024 16:48:13 GMT -5
Can you post the rankings featuring all 12 results?
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Post by dunninla3 on Apr 21, 2024 17:17:45 GMT -5
Can you post the rankings featuring all 12 results? Oh, that's easy. Just check out Acrossthepond's spreadsheet. Just know there are teams that haven't played 12 events yet, and compensate. fivb.12ndr.at/olympic-ranking/women |
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Post by undisclosedname on Apr 22, 2024 9:25:01 GMT -5
More importantly, Pavan seems to have awakened from her stupor. Actually, I think the opportunity to play in Pool made her decide to take a risk playing full out on her knee, and it worked out. She played well... well enough in my opinion to still rise another spot or two in the rankings over the next three tournaments and will probably qualify via Top 18 now. I think McBain actually carried that team. She was heavily served and played much better than usual, receiving better, digging more, serving and hitting harder. That opening rally vs Mel/Bra shows that, it would have been perfect if McBain hadn't hit it just a few inches out of bounds. Unpopular opinion here, but Pavan is just past her prime and too slow on the court and, as usual, made too many serve and option mistakes, besides zero blocks. |
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Post by robvolei on Apr 22, 2024 10:35:56 GMT -5
More importantly, Pavan seems to have awakened from her stupor. Actually, I think the opportunity to play in Pool made her decide to take a risk playing full out on her knee, and it worked out. She played well... well enough in my opinion to still rise another spot or two in the rankings over the next three tournaments and will probably qualify via Top 18 now. I think McBain actually carried that team. She was heavily served and played much better than usual, receiving better, digging more, serving and hitting harder. That opening rally vs Mel/Bra shows that, it would have been perfect if McBain hadn't hit it just a few inches out of bounds. Unpopular opinion here, but Pavan is just past her prime and too slow on the court and, as usual, made too many serve and option mistakes, besides zero blocks. Pavan lost the first set against Mel/Brandie. Her two (?) option attack late in the set changed the momentum and let Mel/Brandie take the first set. McBain was siding out well before Pavan decided to pull out her weak on-two attacks. |
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Post by dunninla3 on Apr 22, 2024 12:40:07 GMT -5
I think McBain actually carried that team. She was heavily served and played much better than usual, receiving better, digging more, serving and hitting harder. That opening rally vs Mel/Bra shows that, it would have been perfect if McBain hadn't hit it just a few inches out of bounds. Unpopular opinion here, but Pavan is just past her prime and too slow on the court and, as usual, made too many serve and option mistakes, besides zero blocks. Pavan lost the first set against Mel/Brandie. Her two (?) option attack late in the set changed the momentum and let Mel/Brandie take the first set. McBain was siding out well before Pavan decided to pull out her weak on-two attacks. I am not saying Pavan is anwhere near the Pavan from two years ago. I AM saying the Pavan we saw in Qualis was the worst big in the entire event, an probably the worst Big in a Challenge event I've seen the entire year. It was pathetic. Knee obviously. She was afraid to test it. When they lucked into Pool, she clearly decided to start actually jumping and swinging. Something she wasn't doing, AT ALL, in Qualis. She would slap at ball, push balls, but not hitting at all.
If she plays like she did in Pool and forward for the rest of this year, they will have no difficulty at all rising in the Top 18 rankings. Yes, McBain played great.
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Post by dunninla3 on Apr 27, 2024 16:10:10 GMT -5
Heading into Xiamen 3rd place games and Finals, I have updated the points totals for the teams entered who are in the Top 24 in Olympic Ranking points, Top 10 Finishes.
Biggest stories belong to GER3 and SUI3:
GER3 (Ittlinger/Borger) close the gap to GER2 (Ludwig/Lippmann) from 420 points to 220 points.
SUI3 (Joanouk) entered Xiamen 220 points behind SUI2 (Esmee/Zoe), using Top 10 finishes, and have just passed them by 80 points by finishing Silver. SUI3 get 760 points, replacing a 460 low counter, and SUI3 were eliminated, earning 460 points which didn't add to their total b/c that was already their low counter..
1. BRA1, AP / Duda, 11060 2. USA1, Nuss / Kloth, 9500
3. USA2, Hughes / Cheng, 9600
4. CAN1, Melissa / Brandie, 8860
5. BRA2, Carol / Barbara, 8820
6. NED, Stam / Schoon, 8490
7. SUI1, Hüberli / Brunner, 8440
8. ITA, Gottardi / Menegatti, 8220
9. AUS, Clancy / Mariafe, 7980, (6780 + 600 + 600)
-- note: (have played only 8, assumes 9th/10th finishes will equal lowest counting)
10. CHN, Xue / Xia, 7680,
11. LAT, Graudina / Samoilova, 7500
12. GER1, Müller / Tillmann, 7260------------ no longer viably in the race IMO
xx. BRA3, Taina / Victoria, 7100
xx. BRA4, Agatha / Rebecca, 6700
xx. USA3, Scoles / Flint, 5820, 460------------ Teams in the race for qualifying positions 13-18 + 13. GER2, Lippmann / Ludwig, 6660 (760,760,760,720,640,600,460,760,600,600) + 14.SUI2, Joana / Anouk, 6520, (800,760,760,680,640,600,460,460,600,760) + 15. ESP1, Alvarez / Moreno, 6460, (760,760,720,640,600,600,460,600,600,720 - xx. SUI3, Esmée / Zoé, 6440, (800,760,680,680,600,600,600,460,460 800) + xx. GER3, Ittlinger / Borger, 6440, (760,680,680,640,600,600,460, 680,760,760min) + 16. FRA, Placette / Richard, 6000, (760,680,640,600,600,600,600,460,460,460,600) + 17. LTU, Paulikiene / Raupelyte 5980, (720,680,680,640,600,460,460,460,600,680min) + 18. CAN2, Pavan / McBain, 5840 (760,720,640,600,600,600,460,400,600,460) ----------- + 19. ESP2, Liliana / Paula, 5620, (640,600,600,600,460,460,460,600,600,460,600) - 20. FIN, Ahtiainen / Lahti, 5500, (760,640,600,460,460,460,460,460,460,600) = 21. THA, Nara / Wora, 5440, (760,680,640,600,460,460,460,460,460,460) + 22. AUT, Klinger / Klinger, 5420, (680,640,600,600,460,460,460,460,460,600) + xx. CAN3, Bansley / Bukovec, 5260 (760,600,460,460,460,400,340,600,720,460) + 23. POL, Gruszczynska / Ola (Wachowicz), 5240, (760,640,600,600,460,460,400,400,460,460) - 24. CZE, Hermannova / Stochlova, 5140, (720,640,600,600,600,460,400,400,360,360) |
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Post by dunninla3 on Apr 29, 2024 21:30:42 GMT -5
draft switching to top 12 with lowest 4 counting scores ------------ Teams in the race for qualifying positions 13-18
+ 13. GER2, Lippmann / Ludwig, 7480 (600,600,460,360) Entered: BRA? (MD11), Espinho? (Q2), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 14.SUI2, Joana / Anouk, 7440, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q8), Espinho? (Q12), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 15. ESP1, Alvarez / Moreno, 7380,(600,600,600,460) Entered: BRA? (N), Espinho? (Q14), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
- xx. SUI3, Esmée / Zoé, 7360, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q4), Espinho? (Q6), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ xx. GER3, Ittlinger / Borger, 7360, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q3), Espinho? (Q3), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 16. FRA, Placette / Richard, 6920, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q14), Espinho? (WL3), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 17. LTU, Paulikiene / Raupelyte 6900, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q7), Espinho? (Q10), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 18. CAN2, Pavan / McBain, 6540 (460,400,360,340) Entered: BRA? (Q1), Espinho? (Q5), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
----------- + 19. ESP2, Liliana / Paula, 6480, (460,460,460,400) Entered: BRA? (Q6), Espinho? (MD9), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
- 20. FIN, Ahtiainen / Lahti, 6420, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q12), Espinho? (WL1), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
= 21. THA, Nara / Wora, 6260, (460,460,460,360) Entered: BRA? (Q15), Espinho? (Q16), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 22. AUT, Klinger / Klinger, 6220, (460,460,400,400) Entered: BRA? (Q13), Espinho? (Q15), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ xx. CAN3, Bansley / Bukovec, 5940 (400,340,340,340 assumed) Note: only have 11 finishes... 12th finish assumed to be equal to lowest) Entered: BRA? (Q2), Espinho? (Q4), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 23. POL, Gruszczynska / Ola (Wachowicz), 5960, (400,400,360,360) Entered: BRA? (N), Espinho? (WL12), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
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Post by bvbllr on Apr 29, 2024 21:35:29 GMT -5
I think Germany suddenly became a race of 3 - don’t think GER 1 is safe.
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Post by larabeach on Apr 30, 2024 2:54:32 GMT -5
Right now, and probably somewhat sooner, I think Top12 + what-results-may-be-dropped gives a better picture than Top10
Pavan/McBain seem a bit safer now, they may improve their points with worse results that their inmediate chasers ESp2/FIN who also have to post results they haven't been able in a long time (or ever) to create a gap of their own. CAN3 have an easier time improving their points total, but the gap is probably too big at this point.
The ones lower than FIN, I think are almost out of the race now. I doubt that anything other than the last spot or CQ'ed places change. The ones above CAN2 (whoever that may be) are probably safe.
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Post by larabeach on Apr 30, 2024 3:00:02 GMT -5
BTW, any official or semi-official update on what happens with France's spot?
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Post by sandybvb on Apr 30, 2024 4:26:40 GMT -5
BTW, any official or semi-official update on what happens with France's spot? I think it is evident that if FRA1 secures its position in the top18, France will give its wild card to FRA2. From the Saquarema Challenger it is obvious... |
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Post by sandybvb on Apr 30, 2024 4:41:54 GMT -5
draft switching to top 12 with lowest 4 counting scores ------------ Teams in the race for qualifying positions 13-18
+ 13. GER2, Lippmann / Ludwig, 7480 (600,600,460,360) Entered: BRA? (MD11), Espinho? (Q2), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 14.SUI2, Joana / Anouk, 7440, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q8), Espinho? (Q12), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 15. ESP1, Alvarez / Moreno, 7380,(600,600,600,460) Entered: BRA? (N), Espinho? (Q14), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
- xx. SUI3, Esmée / Zoé, 7360, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q4), Espinho? (Q6), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ xx. GER3, Ittlinger / Borger, 7360, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q3), Espinho? (Q3), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 16. FRA, Placette / Richard, 6920, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q14), Espinho? (WL3), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 17. LTU, Paulikiene / Raupelyte 6900, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q7), Espinho? (Q10), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 18. CAN2, Pavan / McBain, 6540 (460,400,360,340) Entered: BRA? (Q1), Espinho? (Q5), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
----------- + 19. ESP2, Liliana / Paula, 6480, (460,460,460,400) Entered: BRA? (Q6), Espinho? (MD9), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
- 20. FIN, Ahtiainen / Lahti, 6420, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q12), Espinho? (WL1), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
= 21. THA, Nara / Wora, 6260, (460,460,460,360) Entered: BRA? (Q15), Espinho? (Q16), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 22. AUT, Klinger / Klinger, 6220, (460,460,400,400) Entered: BRA? (Q13), Espinho? (Q15), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ xx. CAN3, Bansley / Bukovec, 5940 (400,340,340,340 assumed) Note: only have 11 finishes... 12th finish assumed to be equal to lowest) Entered: BRA? (Q2), Espinho? (Q4), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 23. POL, Gruszczynska / Ola (Wachowicz), 5960, (400,400,360,360) Entered: BRA? (N), Espinho? (WL12), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
Reply Quick Reply What will be the score needed to reach 18th place? Thinking about the 3 Elite16 and the pending Challenger, my bet is: 7050... And yours? |
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Post by thebeachball on Apr 30, 2024 4:44:17 GMT -5
draft switching to top 12 with lowest 4 counting scores ------------ Teams in the race for qualifying positions 13-18
+ 13. GER2, Lippmann / Ludwig, 7480 (600,600,460,360) Entered: BRA? (MD11), Espinho? (Q2), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 14.SUI2, Joana / Anouk, 7440, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q8), Espinho? (Q12), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 15. ESP1, Alvarez / Moreno, 7380,(600,600,600,460) Entered: BRA? (N), Espinho? (Q14), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
- xx. SUI3, Esmée / Zoé, 7360, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q4), Espinho? (Q6), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ xx. GER3, Ittlinger / Borger, 7360, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q3), Espinho? (Q3), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 16. FRA, Placette / Richard, 6920, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q14), Espinho? (WL3), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 17. LTU, Paulikiene / Raupelyte 6900, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q7), Espinho? (Q10), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 18. CAN2, Pavan / McBain, 6540 (460,400,360,340) Entered: BRA? (Q1), Espinho? (Q5), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
----------- + 19. ESP2, Liliana / Paula, 6480, (460,460,460,400) Entered: BRA? (Q6), Espinho? (MD9), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
- 20. FIN, Ahtiainen / Lahti, 6420, (460,460,460,460) Entered: BRA? (Q12), Espinho? (WL1), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
= 21. THA, Nara / Wora, 6260, (460,460,460,360) Entered: BRA? (Q15), Espinho? (Q16), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 22. AUT, Klinger / Klinger, 6220, (460,460,400,400) Entered: BRA? (Q13), Espinho? (Q15), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ xx. CAN3, Bansley / Bukovec, 5940 (400,340,340,340 assumed) Note: only have 11 finishes... 12th finish assumed to be equal to lowest) Entered: BRA? (Q2), Espinho? (Q4), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
+ 23. POL, Gruszczynska / Ola (Wachowicz), 5960, (400,400,360,360) Entered: BRA? (N), Espinho? (WL12), Stare Jablonki? (), Ostrava? ()
Reply Quick Reply What will be the score needed to reach 18th place? Thinking about the 3 Elite16 and the pending Challenger, my bet is: 7050... And yours? 6900 will be enough |
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