WCC/PAC Week 7 2024

[mikegarrison]

All discussion about the WCC/PAC is welcome (except for trolling and flamebaiting)

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NOTE: All references to rankings in this post are based on pablo, not AVCA!

Standings:

(39) LMU 10-1 (+1)
(51) Pepperdine 9-1 (+1)
(44) San Diego 8-3 (-1)
(107) WSU 7-4 (+2)
(120) San Francisco 6-4 (+0)
(140) OSU 5-5 (-0)
(114) Pacific 4-7 (-1)
(204) Portland 4-7 (+0)
(153) Santa Clara 3-8 (-1)
(178) Saint Mary's 3-8 (-1)
(281) Gonzaga 0-11 (-1)

(Nov 4 pablo rankings) School W-L (wins above expectation)

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Predicted final win totals as of November 04

LMU 17 to 15 -- median wins: 16
Pepperdine 16 to 13 -- median wins: 14
San Diego 15 to 12 -- median wins: 14
WSU 13 to 10 -- median wins: 11
San Francisco 11 to 9 -- median wins: 10
Pacific 9 to 7 -- median wins: 8
OSU 9 to 6 -- median wins: 8
Santa Clara 8 to 5 -- median wins: 6
Portland 7 to 4 -- median wins: 6
Saint Mary's 7 to 4 -- median wins: 6
Gonzaga 2 to 0 -- median wins: 0

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Predicted final placements as of November 04

LMU 1 to 1 -- median placement: 1
Pepperdine 1 to 3 -- median placement: 2
San Diego 2 to 3 -- median placement: 3
WSU 3 to 5 -- median placement: 4
San Francisco 4 to 6 -- median placement: 5
Pacific 5 to 7 -- median placement: 6
OSU 5 to 8 -- median placement: 6
Santa Clara 7 to 10 -- median placement: 8
Portland 8 to 11 -- median placement: 9
Saint Mary's 8 to 11 -- median placement: 9
Gonzaga 11 to 11 -- median placement: 11

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This week's matches (Pacific times)

Thur:
6:00pm OSU@Santa Clara, LMU@Pepperdine, Saint Mary's@Gonzaga
7:00pm Portland@San Francisco, Pacific@WSU

Fri:
6:00pm Saint Mary's@WSU

Sat:
noon Pepperdine@San Diego, Pacific@Gonzaga, OSU@San Francisco
1:00pm Portland@Santa Clara

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Pablo close matches of the week (55 percent or closer):

OSU (47%) @ Santa Clara (53%) -- Outcome: Santa Clara 3-0
LMU (51%) @ Pepperdine (49%) -- Outcome: LMU 3-1

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Conference schedule link:

wccsports.com/calendar.aspx?path=wvball

Pablo is the creation of The Bofa on the Sofa and is available by subscription on richkern.com
This post generated by code written by Mike Garrison.

[JJVb]

Two important matches for Pepperdine this week. RPI points up for grabs.

[mikegarrison]

Nov 5, 2024 3:18:21 GMT -5 JJVb said:

Two important matches for Pepperdine this week. RPI points up for grabs.

Yeah, Pepperdine could be sitting in the conference lead by Sunday, or they could be sitting out of the Tournament.

[mikegarrison]

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NOTE: All references to rankings in this post are based on pablo, not AVCA!

Standings:

(39) LMU 11-1 (+2)
(51) Pepperdine 9-2 (+1)
(44) San Diego 8-3 (-1)
(107) WSU 8-4 (+2)
(120) San Francisco 7-4 (+1)
(140) OSU 5-6 (-1)
(114) Pacific 4-8 (-2)
(153) Santa Clara 4-8 (-1)
(178) Saint Mary's 4-8 (-0)
(204) Portland 4-8 (-0)
(281) Gonzaga 0-12 (-1)

(Nov 4 pablo rankings) School W-L (wins above expectation)

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Predicted final win totals as of November 08

LMU 17 to 15 -- median wins: 16
Pepperdine 15 to 13 -- median wins: 14
San Diego 15 to 12 -- median wins: 14
WSU 13 to 11 -- median wins: 12
San Francisco 11 to 9 -- median wins: 10
Pacific 9 to 6 -- median wins: 8
OSU 9 to 6 -- median wins: 7
Santa Clara 8 to 6 -- median wins: 7
Saint Mary's 7 to 5 -- median wins: 6
Portland 7 to 4 -- median wins: 5
Gonzaga 1 to 0 -- median wins: 0

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Predicted final placements as of November 08

LMU 1 to 1 -- median placement: 1
Pepperdine 1 to 3 -- median placement: 2
San Diego 2 to 3 -- median placement: 2
WSU 3 to 5 -- median placement: 4
San Francisco 4 to 6 -- median placement: 5
Pacific 5 to 8 -- median placement: 6
OSU 5 to 8 -- median placement: 7
Santa Clara 6 to 9 -- median placement: 7
Saint Mary's 7 to 10 -- median placement: 9
Portland 8 to 11 -- median placement: 9
Gonzaga 11 to 11 -- median placement: 11

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[mikegarrison]

==================

NOTE: All references to rankings in this post are based on pablo, not AVCA!

Standings:

(39) LMU 11-1 (+2)
(51) Pepperdine 9-2 (+1)
(44) San Diego 8-3 (-1)
(107) WSU 9-4 (+2)
(120) San Francisco 7-4 (+1)
(140) OSU 5-6 (-1)
(114) Pacific 4-8 (-2)
(153) Santa Clara 4-8 (-1)
(204) Portland 4-8 (-0)
(178) Saint Mary's 4-9 (-1)
(281) Gonzaga 0-12 (-1)

(Nov 4 pablo rankings) School W-L (wins above expectation)

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Predicted final win totals as of November 08

LMU 17 to 15 -- median wins: 16
Pepperdine 15 to 13 -- median wins: 14
San Diego 15 to 12 -- median wins: 14
WSU 13 to 11 -- median wins: 12
San Francisco 11 to 9 -- median wins: 10
Pacific 9 to 6 -- median wins: 8
OSU 9 to 6 -- median wins: 7
Santa Clara 8 to 6 -- median wins: 7
Saint Mary's 7 to 4 -- median wins: 6
Portland 7 to 4 -- median wins: 5
Gonzaga 1 to 0 -- median wins: 0

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Predicted final placements as of November 08

LMU 1 to 1 -- median placement: 1
Pepperdine 1 to 3 -- median placement: 2
San Diego 2 to 3 -- median placement: 2
WSU 3 to 4 -- median placement: 4
San Francisco 4 to 6 -- median placement: 5
Pacific 5 to 8 -- median placement: 6
OSU 5 to 8 -- median placement: 7
Santa Clara 6 to 9 -- median placement: 7
Saint Mary's 8 to 10 -- median placement: 9
Portland 8 to 11 -- median placement: 9
Gonzaga 11 to 11 -- median placement: 11

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[mikegarrison]

Nov 5, 2024 3:49:13 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

Nov 5, 2024 3:18:21 GMT -5 JJVb said:

Two important matches for Pepperdine this week. RPI points up for grabs.

Yeah, Pepperdine could be sitting in the conference lead by Sunday, or they could be sitting out of the Tournament.

Well, Pepperdine lost both matches, and is now kind of in a bad way.

However, the pablo simulations still say they have a good chance of being #2 in the conference.

[mikegarrison]

==================

NOTE: All references to rankings in this post are based on pablo, not AVCA!

Standings:

(39) LMU 11-1 (+2)
(44) San Diego 9-3 (-0)
(51) Pepperdine 9-3 (+1)
(107) WSU 9-4 (+2)
(120) San Francisco 7-5 (+0)
(140) OSU 6-6 (+0)
(114) Pacific 5-8 (-2)
(204) Portland 5-8 (+1)
(153) Santa Clara 4-9 (-2)
(178) Saint Mary's 4-9 (-0)
(281) Gonzaga 0-13 (-2)

(Nov 4 pablo rankings) School W-L (wins above expectation)

==================

Predicted final win totals as of November 10

LMU 17 to 15 -- median wins: 16
San Diego 15 to 13 -- median wins: 14
Pepperdine 15 to 12 -- median wins: 14
WSU 13 to 11 -- median wins: 12
San Francisco 11 to 8 -- median wins: 9
OSU 9 to 7 -- median wins: 8
Pacific 9 to 7 -- median wins: 8
Portland 7 to 5 -- median wins: 6
Santa Clara 7 to 5 -- median wins: 6
Saint Mary's 7 to 4 -- median wins: 6
Gonzaga 1 to 0 -- median wins: 0

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Predicted final placements as of November 10

LMU 1 to 1 -- median placement: 1
San Diego 2 to 3 -- median placement: 2
Pepperdine 2 to 3 -- median placement: 2
WSU 3 to 4 -- median placement: 4
San Francisco 4 to 6 -- median placement: 5
OSU 5 to 7 -- median placement: 6
Pacific 5 to 8 -- median placement: 6
Portland 7 to 9 -- median placement: 8
Santa Clara 7 to 10 -- median placement: 8
Saint Mary's 8 to 11 -- median placement: 9
Gonzaga 11 to 11 -- median placement: 11

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[mikegarrison]

The simulations have now settled on LMU being #1 (greater than 75% chance), and so anybody else is probably playing for an at-large chance.