AAC
Rice, Wichita State, and South Florida are in the at-large hunt. 8-team conference tournament, hosted by Wichita State. It looks like only one team will have an unfavorable RPI matchup in the first round of the tournament. All in all - I could see the conference tournament pulling in a second team.
Rice plays Wichita State this week (Rice won the first round). South Florida beat Rice and Wichita State already. South Florida also has a H2H win against Florida, and Ohio State. However, South Florida has some sketchy losses: UCSB, Florida Atlantic, and #256 UTSA
ACC
Pitt is Pitt. Louisville in excellent position. Would have to lose three more times to lose their regional. Stanford needs to win out and hope Louisville loses three to have any chance of a regional host. SMU steadily hosting with a good seed. Georgia Tech needs a win against Stanford or Pitt to really have a great shot at 1st/2nd rounds, but they are still in the mix even without it.
North Carolina, Florida State, and Miami-FL are in excellent position to make the tournament, but wouldn't want to risk an end of season collapse and play themselves out of the tournament.
Virginia and NC State are the two true bubble teams. Virginia's got two wins over Miami-FL and FSU and they may not get another quality win, their best chance is at North Carolina. Coastal Carolina is starting to get their season together and could surprise and win the Sun Belt Tournament. If Coastal stays host - don't be surprised to see them end up Top 50 RPI, which would certainly help Virginia.
NC State is not in a great spot, but, it's not like they can't play their way in. They need some more wins especially with some sketchy losses (California and Boston College). They do have the H2H vs. Virginia - which could be impactful.
Big East
I'm not really seeing a great path for Creighton right now. The H2H to Louisville really handicaps them. But if Penn State can take losses to Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Purdue, I think Creighton's path opens up.
Marquette is not looking likely - but still not out of the running for hosting 1st/2nd rounds. Beating Creighton certainly could turn some heads and if WKU finished Top 50 and Dayton wins out - it could be a chance the committee gives them a 4-spot.
Big Ten
Nebraska is Nebraska. Penn State loses 2 more and they probably still hold on to a regional, it's three in which they could be concerned. Wisconsin wins out and I think they could be in the conversation for a regional but the Texas/Stanford/Minnesota losses might be too much to overcome.
Purdue is in better shape than their current RPI indicates. Minnesota could improve, but, they have a lot of question mark games left. Oregon can certainly earn their seed with their remaining schedule. USC has work to do, but, still in the conversation for hosting 1st/2nd rounds. Washington is in great position to make the tournament.
Illinois best win at the timing of this post is #50 Michigan, but their worst loss is #31 Washington. They have an interesting profile right now. I wonder what the committee will make of them if they end up on the bubble. Illinois beating USC would really help them breathe a little more.
Michigan, UCLA, Ohio State, and Indiana all still stand a fighting chance, but, I'm not sure any get in. Michigan stands the best chance of now - they have potential plus they have only lost to at-large caliber teams. I could see Ohio State playing themselves in. Not as crazy as Indiana or UCLA's chances at this point, especially with the way they are playing.
Big 12
Very excited for ASU/Kansas matchup. I gave the edge to ASU in last Bracketology, but chose Kansas here because I feel like it's so close. Neither winning out will have a shot at a regional host - but they can still go pretty high. They also could still falter if they take multiple losses down the stretch.
The jumbled four: Utah, TCU, Baylor, BYU. Records among each other so far: BYU 2-1, TCU 2-2, Utah 2-1, Baylor 1-3. But just when you want to count Baylor out, remember that Baylor beat Arizona State and has a quality win against Minnesota still. Baylor, TCU, and BYU all still have a chance left against Kansas as well.
There's a lot of possibilities for the jumbled four, but I think most stick around the 4-5 seed range.
Arizona needs to win out or take just one more loss to have a real shot at the tournament. Colorado also has to go on a serious run to finish the season to make the tournament. I don't think this conference will have any bubble teams.
Big West
Long Beach State lost to UC-Riverside
and then .. UC Davis lost to UC San Diego and Long Beach State. These were just not great things for the hopes of the conference getting multiple teams in the tournament. Hawaii by far is in the best position to get an at-large, but don't count out UC Davis or Long Beach State just yet.
Hawaii at UC Davis will be a huge match this week - and Utterback did not play her last match which could be cause for concern.
SEC
I don't know where to begin with this mess. I guess everyone individual team could still make the tournament except Alabama at this point. Texas still in the best position to get the best seed of any SEC team so far. Kentucky is still pretty comfortable at this point. A&M or Missouri could really use a win over Kentucky to help their chances. If Florida won out, they would have a shot at hosting, but it's an unlikely scenario overall.
As far as the bubble goes, I like Auburn and South Carolina the best and "most" comfortable of the bubble-ish teams.
Oklahoma and Ole Miss are in relatively similar positions. Their path to the tournament is very reasonable, but any of them can lose enough and play themselves out.
Tennessee is the SEC team probably in most trouble that could appear to be otherwise OK. Their key wins are Auburn, UCLA, and Western Kentucky. No guarantee the latter two finish Top 50 and Auburn is trending down themselves.
Arkansas might be the toughest SEC team to place - they look to have some RPI struggles, but already have wins over Ole Miss/Oklahoma/Auburn. Still a lot of matches left - but the match at Tennessee could be crucial/consequential.
LSU is that team still kind of hanging around that you can't close the door on just yet. They win 4 of their last 6 and I think they get in.
Sun Belt
This conference might be difficult to predict. Coastal/Georgia Southern/Appalachian State/James Madison are four teams that each have potential to be Top 50 RPI teams, which can help the conference pull a 2nd team in depending on who wins the conference tournament. I think three bids is out of the question - but - it's quite possible they get an at-large again this year.
There's a lot of scenarios, but basically, if you are rooting for the Sun Belt, you want those four teams to win out (there are no remaining H2H matches against each other). After next week, when the conference standings are finalized and we know how much RPI potential there is, it will be easier to predict what happens with this conference.
Also, Coastal Carolina definitely has my favorite Team Sheet of any team this year. It's pretty wild to me:
ncaastats.figstats.net/teamsheet.phtml/Coastal%20CarolinaWCC
Huge match in Malibu this weekend (San Diego at Pepperdine). LMU is in great position - for an AQ or an at-large bid if they lose it to Pepperdine. San Diego or Pepperdine take the edge over each other in terms of at-large/RPI depending on who wins - but they will have a 2nd match later in the season. More pressure slightly on San Diego though - as they've already lost to LMU twice while Pepperdine still has a match remaining against LMU.
If San Diego/Pepperdine split against each other, or San Diego beats Pepperdine twice and Pepperdine beats LMU, the conference still definitely has a shot at getting 3 teams in.
