Bracketology (11/6)

[blue10]

Nov 6, 2024 9:46:48 GMT -5 boxcariii said:

Nov 6, 2024 4:04:27 GMT -5 trojansc said:

State College Regional (#4)

(1) Penn State vs. Quinnipiac
Yale vs. (8) Florida State*

(4) Kentucky vs. Bowling Green
Illinois vs. (5) Georgia Tech

(2) Creighton vs. Florida A&M*
Wichita State vs. (7) Florida*

(3) Texas vs. Stephen F. Austin
Hawaii* vs. (6) BYU*

Honestly, this is the first one that doesn't have a rematch of some sort for Creighton in the 3rd round, so I like it. Should Creighton vs Texas come to fruition, many diehard Husker fans hate both Texas and Creighton, so the brain aneurysms/meltdowns it will give Husker fans has some entertainment value for me. 

what lol I feel like almost every single UNL fan would be tram Creighton all the way

[uofaGRAD]

that would be a beautiful draw for texas... maybe this was all planned!

[tablealgebra]

trojansc I'm curious at what OSU needs to have as their record to play their way in - they play at Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota and I assume they'd have to win 2 of those 4 plus all their home games, leaving them at 16-14. Is this what you're envisioning as far as them playing their way in?

It's funny to think of OSU at Illinois next week as an elimination game but maybe that is the case?

[vergyltantor]

Nov 6, 2024 9:46:48 GMT -5 boxcariii said:

Nov 6, 2024 4:04:27 GMT -5 trojansc said:

State College Regional (#4)

(1) Penn State vs. Quinnipiac
Yale vs. (8) Florida State*

(4) Kentucky vs. Bowling Green
Illinois vs. (5) Georgia Tech

(2) Creighton vs. Florida A&M*
Wichita State vs. (7) Florida*

(3) Texas vs. Stephen F. Austin
Hawaii* vs. (6) BYU*

Honestly, this is the first one that doesn't have a rematch of some sort for Creighton in the 3rd round, so I like it. Should Creighton vs Texas come to fruition, many diehard Husker fans hate both Texas and Creighton, so the brain aneurysms/meltdowns it will give Husker fans has some entertainment value for me. 

I can't speak for other Husker fans but, Creighton is a team I always like to see winning, except when they are playing against Nebraska. A Nebraska-Creighton final would be my dream matchup.

[trojansc]

Nov 6, 2024 6:10:51 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

You have Boise State winning the Mountain West AQ? That doesn't seem terribly likely to me. They are on the verge of not even getting into the conference tournament.

The AQs get shuffled around for conference tournaments. Fresno State surely wasn't expected to win the conference tournament last year, they could easily do it again, as a team near the bottom of the conference in RPI ranking but at the top in conference standings.

Anyways, unless someone is a heavy favorite and/or it's a regular season title, I will try to mix up the AQs when I see it's plausible one may lose. This means I may include a team winning the AQ who is not the favorite, since, this happens every single year. In this bracket, you can just send High Point to Oregon instead of Boise State and slot in Utah State (Utah State would be a drive-in to Salt Lake City).

Boise State has four MWC losses in terms of RPI (the two additional forfeit losses to SJSU are what are putting Boise State in jeopardy). But three of those 4 conference losses are in 5 sets. They already won at Colorado State. I expect Boise to take care of Air Force/New Mexico. If Boise State beats Wyoming this week they'll be close to locked in - but I'm interested to see if Wyoming forfeits next go around at San Jose State next week.

[trojansc]

Nov 6, 2024 9:10:18 GMT -5 boxcariii said:

Currently, Purdue is projected to finish the season at 15 in the RPI Futures. That's at least part of the reason. I don't understand jumping them up a 3 (9-12) seed looking at the other 4s (but they are are very similar and could be put in any order in my opinion), but trojansc has been doing this a lot longer. My guess is a combination of projected wins/hunched upset/just not liking anyone else around that line when you start digging some. 

Purdue currently only has losses to Top 10 teams. I expect Minnesota to finish Top 25, so, that gives them three Top 25 wins already. They beat both Oregon and USC and they're already at 5 T25 wins even without considering a possible PSU upset. OTOH, Purdue is always kind of wonky and could lose to both USC and Oregon.

The combo of T25 wins + a very clean loss slate is what is putting them over the edge. Also, Purdue has H2H wins versus Utah and Kentucky that feel rather important (could also be important for common opponents for other teams around them, thinking SEC+Big 12).     

[trojansc]

Nov 6, 2024 9:36:49 GMT -5 vballfreak808 said:

Interesting. A predicted WKU loss in the CUSA Tournament with UTEP getting the automatic bid.

This can really go either way. I decided to leave one out for this edition since I included the last one (or two?).

Anyways, UTEP doesn't have a big win. It could help them if Southeastern Louisiana wins out (this should be enough to push Southeastern into T50 status I believe). But if WKU wins at UTEP for a third time, I could see the committee leaving UTEP out.

OTOH, I could see WKU getting an at-large. They'll have two top 50 wins at UTEP already - but I don't know if that will be good enough and we'd have to see how high their RPI was.

Conference tournament at UTEP makes me want to lean UTEP even though WKU already won their twice. Definitely going to be exciting to follow.

[blue10]

Nov 6, 2024 11:58:44 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 6, 2024 9:36:49 GMT -5 vballfreak808 said:

Interesting. A predicted WKU loss in the CUSA Tournament with UTEP getting the automatic bid.

This can really go either way. I decided to leave one out for this edition since I included the last one (or two?).

Anyways, UTEP doesn't have a big win. It could help them if Southeastern Louisiana wins out (this should be enough to push Southeastern into T50 status I believe). But if WKU wins at UTEP for a third time, I could see the committee leaving UTEP out.

OTOH, I could see WKU getting an at-large. They'll have two top 50 wins at UTEP already - but I don't know if that will be good enough and we'd have to see how high their RPI was.

Conference tournament at UTEP makes me want to lean UTEP even though WKU already won their twice. Definitely going to be exciting to follow.

I really expected more out of UTEP. Thought they at worst would split with a down WKU team

[trojansc]

Nov 6, 2024 10:38:41 GMT -5 tablealgebra said:

trojansc I'm curious at what OSU needs to have as their record to play their way in - they play at Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota and I assume they'd have to win 2 of those 4 plus all their home games, leaving them at 16-14. Is this what you're envisioning as far as them playing their way in?

It's funny to think of OSU at Illinois next week as an elimination game but maybe that is the case?

Yep. That's the path for Ohio State. I think it's do-able, even if it's not likely. But, you could also trade out a Indiana loss for example if it means they beat Michigan, Illinois, AND Minnesota. They could certainly afford that with those wins.      

Ohio State's tournament chances look way different if they had finished that match with Dayton and ended up winning.     

[WahineFan44]

Assuming Hawaii wins out, but loses in the finals in the tournament, do you think the SMU, SD and Pepperdine wins are enough to propel them, assuming the rest of the big west schools remain in the top 100?

Im assuming hawaii really wants UCSB and UNLV to get their RPI to sub 100 as well

trojansc

[radioactiveman]

Nov 6, 2024 11:54:37 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 6, 2024 9:10:18 GMT -5 boxcariii said:

Currently, Purdue is projected to finish the season at 15 in the RPI Futures. That's at least part of the reason. I don't understand jumping them up a 3 (9-12) seed looking at the other 4s (but they are are very similar and could be put in any order in my opinion), but trojansc has been doing this a lot longer. My guess is a combination of projected wins/hunched upset/just not liking anyone else around that line when you start digging some. 

Purdue currently only has losses to Top 10 teams. I expect Minnesota to finish Top 25, so, that gives them three Top 25 wins already. They beat both Oregon and USC and they're already at 5 T25 wins even without considering a possible PSU upset. OTOH, Purdue is always kind of wonky and could lose to both USC and Oregon.

The combo of T25 wins + a very clean loss slate is what is putting them over the edge. Also, Purdue has H2H wins versus Utah and Kentucky that feel rather important (could also be important for common opponents for other teams around them, thinking SEC+Big 12).     

That all makes sense, but RPI seems strange to me then that they are 24 RPI currently with all that still being true.  They have T25 wins at Minnesota and on a neutral court against Kentucky and have only lost to T10 teams.  I think your reasoning for a 3 seed makes sense but I don't understand what's dragging their current RPI down so much.

[trojansc]

Nov 6, 2024 12:31:15 GMT -5 radioactiveman said:

I don't understand what's dragging their current RPI down so much.

It's a function of how RPI works. Purdue has played almost all of their "bad RPI" matchups. RPI is primarily concerned with W/L records. If you want to look at how a team is going to finish or how their RPI is going to move - you first need to know the W/L % of their remaining opponents before even considering how many games they are going to win to finish the year.

Let's look at the bad W/L Record Big Ten Teams Purdue has already played:

Northwestern (4-16)
Rutgers (5-18)
Iowa (9-15)
Maryland (10-13)
Michigan State (8-15)
Ohio State (10-12)

6 of Purdue's final 8 opponents have VERY good W/L records. The 6th best record is Michigan at 15-7. The 7th is Indiana, which at 12-10, certainly isn't hurting your RPI if you win that match. The 8th matchup is bad (Rutgers again) but that's easily offset.

[trojansc]

Nov 6, 2024 12:16:12 GMT -5 WahineFan44 said:

Assuming Hawaii wins out, but loses in the finals in the tournament, do you think the SMU, SD and Pepperdine wins are enough to propel them, assuming the rest of the big west schools remain in the top 100?

Im assuming hawaii really wants UCSB and UNLV to get their RPI to sub 100 as well

trojansc

I don't really think the Big West being in top 100 matters much. UCSB and UNLV being within Top 100 would likely help more than that, as those look to be bad losses.

In your scenario, Hawaii would have the RPI juice to be fine. It's when we talk multiple losses we're getting into a questionable route.

What I don't like for Hawaii: currently three 100+ losses, no guarantee that either USD/Pepperdine finish T50, though I think at least one will, and it is possible for both. Also, all three of Hawaii's big wins (SMU, Pepp, USD) come at home which can sometimes come into play. Though the SMU win is really good - and could help outweigh the other stuff.

[basil]

Nov 6, 2024 10:37:08 GMT -5 uofaGRAD said:

that would be a beautiful draw for texas... maybe this was all planned!

as it was written

[huskersoftroy]

Looking closer at this bracket this would be USC’s best draw in like several years lol. Playing ASU on the road is tough but not impossible and way better than playing @ Texas. Asking them to upset Arizona State AND SMU seems egregious but I think they would have a chance on a neutral court.

@ Livings and Adonia, hopefully you are both December Girlies <3