WCC/PAC Week 9 2024

[mikegarrison]

All discussion about the WCC/PAC is welcome (except for trolling and flamebaiting)

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NOTE: All references to rankings in this post are based on pablo, not AVCA!

Standings:

(37) LMU 13-1 (+2)
(39) San Diego 11-3 (-0)
(45) Pepperdine 11-3 (+1)
(81) WSU 11-4 (+2)
(132) San Francisco 7-7 (+0)
(142) OSU 6-8 (-0)
(135) Pacific 6-9 (-1)
(154) Saint Mary's 5-9 (-1)
(200) Portland 5-10 (+0)
(170) Santa Clara 4-11 (-1)
(292) Gonzaga 0-14 (-1)

(Nov 18 pablo rankings) School W-L (wins above expectation)

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Predicted final win totals as of November 19

LMU 17 to 16 -- median wins: 17
San Diego 15 to 13 -- median wins: 14
Pepperdine 15 to 13 -- median wins: 14
WSU 13 to 12 -- median wins: 13
San Francisco 10 to 8 -- median wins: 9
OSU 8 to 6 -- median wins: 7
Pacific 8 to 6 -- median wins: 7
Saint Mary's 8 to 6 -- median wins: 6
Santa Clara 7 to 5 -- median wins: 6
Portland 7 to 5 -- median wins: 6
Gonzaga 1 to 0 -- median wins: 0

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Predicted final placements as of November 19

LMU 1 to 1 -- median placement: 1
San Diego 2 to 3 -- median placement: 2
Pepperdine 2 to 3 -- median placement: 2
WSU 3 to 4 -- median placement: 4
San Francisco 5 to 5 -- median placement: 5
OSU 5 to 7 -- median placement: 6
Pacific 5 to 8 -- median placement: 6
Saint Mary's 6 to 9 -- median placement: 8
Santa Clara 7 to 10 -- median placement: 9
Portland 7 to 10 -- median placement: 9
Gonzaga 11 to 11 -- median placement: 11

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This week's matches (Pacific times)

Wed:
7:00pm Santa Clara@San Francisco

Thur:
5:00pm Portland@OSU
6:00pm LMU@Pacific
7:00pm Pepperdine@Saint Mary's, Gonzaga@San Diego

Fri:
7:00pm WSU@OSU

Sat:
noon Pepperdine@Pacific
1:00pm Saint Mary's@Santa Clara, San Diego@San Francisco, Gonzaga@LMU

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Pablo close matches of the week (55 percent or closer):

Saint Mary's (46%) @ Santa Clara (54%) -- Outcome: Santa Clara 3-0

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Conference schedule link:

wccsports.com/calendar.aspx?path=wvball

Pablo is the creation of The Bofa on the Sofa and is available by subscription on richkern.com
This post generated by code written by Mike Garrison.

[mikegarrison]

Guess who lost power at his home for the past three days?

[mikegarrison]

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NOTE: All references to rankings in this post are based on pablo, not AVCA!

Standings:

(37) LMU 13-2 (+1)
(39) San Diego 12-3 (-0)
(45) Pepperdine 12-3 (+1)
(81) WSU 11-4 (+2)
(132) San Francisco 7-8 (-0)
(142) OSU 7-8 (-0)
(135) Pacific 7-9 (-0)
(154) Saint Mary's 5-10 (-1)
(170) Santa Clara 5-11 (-1)
(200) Portland 5-11 (+0)
(292) Gonzaga 0-15 (-1)

(Nov 18 pablo rankings) School W-L (wins above expectation)

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Predicted final win totals as of November 22

LMU 16 to 15 -- median wins: 16
San Diego 15 to 13 -- median wins: 14
Pepperdine 15 to 13 -- median wins: 14
WSU 13 to 12 -- median wins: 13
San Francisco 9 to 8 -- median wins: 8
Pacific 9 to 7 -- median wins: 8
OSU 8 to 7 -- median wins: 8
Santa Clara 7 to 6 -- median wins: 6
Saint Mary's 7 to 5 -- median wins: 6
Portland 6 to 5 -- median wins: 5
Gonzaga 0 to 0 -- median wins: 0

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Predicted final placements as of November 22

LMU 1 to 1 -- median placement: 1
Pepperdine 1 to 3 -- median placement: 2
San Diego 1 to 3 -- median placement: 2
WSU 3 to 4 -- median placement: 4
San Francisco 5 to 6 -- median placement: 5
Pacific 5 to 6 -- median placement: 5
OSU 5 to 7 -- median placement: 6
Santa Clara 7 to 9 -- median placement: 8
Saint Mary's 7 to 9 -- median placement: 8
Portland 9 to 10 -- median placement: 10
Gonzaga 11 to 11 -- median placement: 11

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[bayarea]

Nov 22, 2024 18:32:30 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

Guess who lost power at his home for the past three days?

Ooh...bummer.  It sounds brutal up there.  Sorry about that.

[mikegarrison]

LMU losing to Pacific brought Pepperdine and San Diego back into possible contention for first place. (As a reminder, my cutoff on wins and placements is that there is a 75% chance that the final outcomes fall into the range listed.)

[mikegarrison]

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NOTE: All references to rankings in this post are based on pablo, not AVCA!

Standings:

(37) LMU 13-2 (+1)
(39) San Diego 12-3 (-0)
(45) Pepperdine 12-3 (+1)
(81) WSU 11-5 (+1)
(142) OSU 8-8 (+0)
(132) San Francisco 7-8 (-0)
(135) Pacific 7-9 (-0)
(154) Saint Mary's 5-10 (-1)
(170) Santa Clara 5-11 (-1)
(200) Portland 5-11 (+0)
(292) Gonzaga 0-15 (-1)

(Nov 18 pablo rankings) School W-L (wins above expectation)

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Predicted final win totals as of November 22

LMU 16 to 15 -- median wins: 16
San Diego 15 to 13 -- median wins: 14
Pepperdine 15 to 13 -- median wins: 14
WSU 13 to 11 -- median wins: 12
San Francisco 9 to 8 -- median wins: 8
OSU 8 to 8 -- median wins: 8
Pacific 9 to 7 -- median wins: 8
Santa Clara 7 to 6 -- median wins: 6
Saint Mary's 7 to 5 -- median wins: 6
Portland 6 to 5 -- median wins: 5
Gonzaga 0 to 0 -- median wins: 0

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Predicted final placements as of November 22

LMU 1 to 1 -- median placement: 1
Pepperdine 1 to 3 -- median placement: 2
San Diego 1 to 3 -- median placement: 2
WSU 4 to 4 -- median placement: 4
San Francisco 5 to 6 -- median placement: 5
OSU 5 to 6 -- median placement: 5
Pacific 5 to 7 -- median placement: 5
Santa Clara 8 to 9 -- median placement: 8
Saint Mary's 7 to 10 -- median placement: 9
Portland 8 to 10 -- median placement: 10
Gonzaga 11 to 11 -- median placement: 11

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[gobruins]

Nov 22, 2024 18:32:30 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

Guess who lost power at his home for the past three days?

tomclen?

[mikegarrison]

San Diego@San Francisco still underway.

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NOTE: All references to rankings in this post are based on pablo, not AVCA!

Standings:

(37) LMU 14-2 (+1)
(45) Pepperdine 13-3 (+1)
(39) San Diego 12-3 (-0)
(81) WSU 11-5 (+1)
(142) OSU 8-8 (+0)
(132) San Francisco 7-8 (-0)
(135) Pacific 7-10 (-0)
(170) Santa Clara 6-11 (-0)
(154) Saint Mary's 5-11 (-1)
(200) Portland 5-11 (+0)
(292) Gonzaga 0-16 (-1)

(Nov 18 pablo rankings) School W-L (wins above expectation)

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Predicted final win totals as of November 23

LMU 16 to 15 -- median wins: 16
Pepperdine 15 to 14 -- median wins: 14
San Diego 15 to 13 -- median wins: 14
WSU 13 to 11 -- median wins: 12
San Francisco 9 to 8 -- median wins: 8
OSU 8 to 8 -- median wins: 8
Pacific 8 to 7 -- median wins: 8
Santa Clara 7 to 7 -- median wins: 7
Saint Mary's 6 to 5 -- median wins: 6
Portland 6 to 5 -- median wins: 5
Gonzaga 0 to 0 -- median wins: 0

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Predicted final placements as of November 23

LMU 1 to 1 -- median placement: 1
Pepperdine 1 to 3 -- median placement: 2
San Diego 2 to 3 -- median placement: 2
WSU 4 to 4 -- median placement: 4
San Francisco 5 to 6 -- median placement: 5
OSU 5 to 6 -- median placement: 5
Pacific 5 to 7 -- median placement: 6
Santa Clara 7 to 8 -- median placement: 8
Saint Mary's 8 to 10 -- median placement: 9
Portland 9 to 10 -- median placement: 10
Gonzaga 11 to 11 -- median placement: 11

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[mikegarrison]

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NOTE: All references to rankings in this post are based on pablo, not AVCA!

Standings:

(37) LMU 14-2 (+1)
(45) Pepperdine 13-3 (+1)
(39) San Diego 12-4 (-1)
(81) WSU 11-5 (+1)
(132) San Francisco 8-8 (+0)
(142) OSU 8-8 (+0)
(135) Pacific 7-10 (-0)
(170) Santa Clara 6-11 (-0)
(154) Saint Mary's 5-11 (-2)
(200) Portland 5-11 (+0)
(292) Gonzaga 0-16 (-1)

(Nov 18 pablo rankings) School W-L (wins above expectation)

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Predicted final win totals as of November 23

LMU 16 to 15 -- median wins: 16
Pepperdine 15 to 14 -- median wins: 14
San Diego 14 to 13 -- median wins: 13
WSU 13 to 11 -- median wins: 12
San Francisco 10 to 9 -- median wins: 9
OSU 8 to 8 -- median wins: 8
Pacific 8 to 7 -- median wins: 8
Santa Clara 7 to 7 -- median wins: 7
Saint Mary's 6 to 5 -- median wins: 6
Portland 6 to 5 -- median wins: 5
Gonzaga 0 to 0 -- median wins: 0

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Predicted final placements as of November 23

LMU 1 to 1 -- median placement: 1
Pepperdine 1 to 2 -- median placement: 2
San Diego 2 to 3 -- median placement: 3
WSU 4 to 4 -- median placement: 4
San Francisco 5 to 5 -- median placement: 5
OSU 5 to 6 -- median placement: 6
Pacific 6 to 7 -- median placement: 6
Santa Clara 7 to 8 -- median placement: 8
Saint Mary's 8 to 10 -- median placement: 9
Portland 8 to 10 -- median placement: 10
Gonzaga 11 to 11 -- median placement: 11

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