vbf
High School
Posts: 12
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Post by vbf on Nov 21, 2024 10:27:15 GMT -5
With Bear Kitten sitting out the MAC tourney, I thought it would be fun to preview the teams in the tournament. No predictions here - I wouldn't dare to challenge Bear Kitten's prognostic abilities. Today, we'll look at seeds 4-6. Tomorrow 1-3. So without further ado:
Seed #6 - Toledo. Conference record 10-8. 1-7 against tournament teams.
Why they can win - Taylor Alt. Multiple First Team All-MAC winner. Combined with Izzy Granger they make a dangerous left side combo.
Why they can't - Have not been good against tournament teams and they just got swept twice by their first round opponent Ball State two weeks ago.
Seed # 5 - Buffalo. Conference record 12-6. 3-4 against tournament teams.
Why they can win - Veteran team and Katrin Trebichavska is one of the top OH's in the league with a big top-spin serve that can swing momentum.
Why they can't - Buffalo is staggering down the stretch. 6-5 over their last 11 and took only one set in two losses to Ohio just two weeks ago. Defensively they give up a lot of aces and do not dig the ball particularly well.
Seed # 4 - Western Michigan. Conference record 13-5. 4-5 against tournament teams.
Why they can win - Experience. They return all but one starter from last year's championship team. DPOY in SImpkins and a perennial SOTY candidate in Logan Case.
Why they can't - Lack of firepower. They rank 8th in service aces and have the 9th worst opponent dig rate in conference which suggests they're not particularly terminal on offense. And they don't have anyone in the top ten in kills and only Madison Merz in the top ten in hitting percentage.
Back tomorrow with seeds 1-3.
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vbf
High School
Posts: 12
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Post by vbf on Nov 22, 2024 9:48:59 GMT -5
Yesterday we looked at seeds 4-6. Today we turn to seeds 1-3. Not surprisingly, these teams appear to be incredibly close with all three sitting in the top four of most relevant statistical categories. Hard to find cracks in the armor of any of them and each would be a worthy winner.
Seed #3 - Ball State Conference Record 13-5. 4-5 against Tournament Teams.
Why they can win - Big (and good) at the net. Second in the conference in hitting percentage and first in blocks by a not insignificant margin. Buckley, Tyler and Smith were First Team All-Mac with Tyler also named FOTY. Aniya Kennedy got no love despite 171 kills and 30 total blocks.
Why they can't - Defense. If the ball gets past the block they're only 11th in the conference in digs and receive serve at .932. and Tyler may be wearing down as she's past 10 kills only three times in the past month. And I was surprised by their record against Tournament teams.
Seed #2 - Central Michigan Conference Record 16-3. 5-2 against Tournament Teams.
Why they can win - Diverse attack. While Central has no one in the top 10 in kills, they spread the ball evenly between their five attackers. First Team All-Mac Rejment leads with 199 while second teamer Thomas is fifth on the team with 163. That spread of 36 is by far the smallest among the tournament teams. If one attacker is shut down, SOTY Korba has a lot of other options.
Why they can't - Blocking. Central is only 6th in blocks/set. Korba is on the smaller size and opponents will try to hunt her in attack.
Seed #1 - Bowling Green. Conference Record 17-2. 7-1 against Tournament Teams.
Why they can win - Big attack. POTY Hovey and Tyler are both in the top ten in kills and Metille and Andrews are both in the top ten in hitting percentage with Metille hitting a sick .457. And don't forget Otten who has 70 kills of her own from the setter position. Playing at home should also give them a boost. They are number one in points, hitting percentage and kills.
Why they can't - Like Ball State, Defense. Theyr'e 8th in digs/set and also receive serve at .932. But that's about it. It's hard to find a statistic to criticize.
That's it. Good luck to everyone involved.
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Post by macfan11 on Nov 22, 2024 10:38:25 GMT -5
Great breakdown!
I think it will come down to Ball State and BGSU. Toledo and Buffalo seem to be on a downward trend towards the last stretch of the regular season. I feel for Ohio, who really gutted it out but just came up short.
Central Michigan being the 2nd seed is huge for them; but will they be able to handle the pressure of being ranked so highly? They haven’t been ranked this high before and that could put too much pressure on them to perform. This is their most winningest season since 1983.
Western is always a scary team— Colleen Munson knows how to get her teams to win. But we’ve seen them drop a couple of head-scratchers before.
Ball State not having as many digs is an interesting stat. I think stats only tell half the story. Ball State is so lethal on offense and with their block, so they aren’t having as many opportunities to dig. If their hitters are scoring kills, then their defense doesn’t have the opportunity to make a dig because the ball didn’t come back over the net. I also think the 6-2 offense has helped spread the love offensively, which may be why Aniya Kennedy didn’t have as many opportunities as last year.
BGSU seems to be the most complete team. I love watching them play and I think Coach Tomic has produced one of her best teams in terms of talent and cohesiveness. That’s a deadly combination that will be tough to beat, especially on their home court in a single elimination situation. If they win the MAC Tournament, they might be able to steal a first round win in the NCAA tournament.
I’ll try my hand at Kitten’s predictions: I think it’ll be Ball State vs. BGSU in the finals, with Ball State sneaking out a 4 set victory.
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Post by Bearkitten on Nov 22, 2024 14:07:12 GMT -5
Great analysis on all the teams!
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Post by Bearkitten on Nov 22, 2024 15:45:31 GMT -5
Kitten traditionally does not make MAC tournament predictions but I have made a last second decision to break my tradition and will give it a whirl. Ball State clearly has the best draw with the defending champion Western Michigan Broncos and Bowling Green being in the other bracket. Below are Kitten’s predictions for Friday’s quarterfinal round Friday night.
Western Michigan over Buffalo 3-1
Ball State over Toledo 3-0
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Post by Bearkitten on Nov 23, 2024 12:05:28 GMT -5
Kitten had a perfect score yesterday in picking Western Michigan’s 3-1 win over Buffalo and Ball State’s 3-0 sweep over Taylor Ault and the Toledo Rockets. Now onto the semifinals to be played today in Bowling Green’s Stroh Center. The first match feature defending champion Western Michigan and this year’s MAC champion Bowling Green. This match kept me up all night trying to predict the winner. WMU is red hot playing great volleyball with their precision ball control, relentless defense and high velocity serving. The lack off Western Michigan’s firepower is at the net. BG is playing at home and is hungry for the championship after losing a 5 set heartbreaker a year ago to WMU in the championship. My gut feeling says WMU but my heart picks BG. In match 2, Ball State will roll over Central Michigan. Ball State has the most talent in the league and is the most fundamentally sound team in the MAC. Below are Kitten’s picks for Saturday.
Bowling Green over Western Michigan 3-2
Ball State over Central Michigan 3-0
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Post by Bearkitten on Nov 23, 2024 18:15:49 GMT -5
BG and WMU going 5 on ESPN+
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Post by Bearkitten on Nov 24, 2024 10:13:21 GMT -5
The two best ball control teams in the MAC survived 5 set matches and it was their ball control that saved them in the 5th sets. Defending tournament champion and #4 seed Western Michigan upset league champion and #1 seed Bowling Green 3-2 and #3 seed Ball State upset #2 seed Central Michigan 3-2 after CMU nearly completed a reverse sweep after BSU dominated the 1st 2 sets. The stage is set for a “rock em sock ‘em” championship match at 4:00 today on ESPN+. Ball State and Western Michigan just split a pair of matches last weekend in Muncie and today’s championship match will be a fight to the finish. Both teams are very evenly matched with BSU having a little more offensive and blocking firepower, which is why Kitten is giving the edge to the Cardinals in a match volleyball fans around the country won’t want to miss. Two extremely well coached teams with great setters, defense and supreme serve receive ball control. Below is Kitten’s final prediction of the season.
Ball State over Western Michigan 3-2
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Post by 4theloveofvb on Nov 24, 2024 17:48:25 GMT -5
Western Michigan with a convincing sweep of Ball State. Peeked at the right time of the year.
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Post by Bearkitten on Nov 24, 2024 18:03:26 GMT -5
Western Michigan with a convincing sweep of Ball State. Peeked at the right time of the year. Western Michigan was flawless today and their experience won out. Comeback in set 1 really propelled the Broncos the rest of the match. Congratulations to Colleen Munson and her Broncos! |
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Post by 4theloveofvb on Nov 24, 2024 19:08:12 GMT -5
Thanks for your coverage all season.
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